Series Preview: New York Mets (48-34) at Pittsburgh Pirates (32-50)

6-27-2025 – By Josh Poe – @DaRealHanYolo on X

The Pirates welcome the New York Mets to PNC Park this weekend. Pittsburgh will look to right the ship after four straight series losses. The Mets are somewhat in the same boat as they have been struggling lately as well. New York 3-10 over their last 13 games and are now fighting with the Phillies for first place, dropping from a comfortable 5.5 game lead a few weeks ago to just a 0.5 game margin heading into this series.

The Mets’ most significant issue at the moment has been rotation health. With Griffin Canning going down yesterday, the Mets are now without three of their starters, and their offense has been very streaky lately. Can the Bucs take advantage?

On the other hand, the Pirates have not been playing their best lately. There have been some bright spots, namely Nick Gonzales.

It has gotten lost with all the Oneil Cruz drama this past week but Nicky G has been swinging a hot stick lately. His approach has looked much better, he is cutting down his strikeout rate and he is batting .400 with a 1.023 OPS over the past week so maybe he is emerging. And one more quick shoutout to Tommy Pham, who has had a horrible year, but this week has seen his best play with three multi-hit games. I just want to give Tommy some love. Additionally, can we continue to provide Henry Davis with consistent playing time?

6/27

Mets: David Peterson (L) 5-3, 2.98 ERA, 90.2 IP, 78 K, 31 BB, 1.24 WHIP

Pirates: Mitch Keller (R) 1-10, 4.02 ERA, 94.0 IP. 73K, 24 BB, 1.22 WHIP

6/28

Mets: Paul Blackburn (R) 0-2, 6.62 ERA, 17.2 IP, 13 K, 7 BB, 1.75 WHIP

Pirates: Bailey Falter (L) 6-3, 3.59 ERA, 85.1 IP, 51 K, 31 BB, 1.18 WHIP

6/29

Mets: Frankie Montas (R) 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 5.0 IP, 5 K, 3 BB, 1.20 WHIP

Pirates: Mike Burrows (R) 1-2, 4.45 ERA, 30.1 IP, 30 K, 9 BB, 1.32 WHIP

Mets: Juan Soto – This feels a bit of a cop-out since it’s Juan Soto, but here we are. Soto, in his last 7 games, has been outstanding. He is batting .348 with 5 HRs and 8 RBIs. He is leading the charge for this Mets lineup. His overall June has been excellent, as he is hitting .325 with 10 HRs and 18 RBIs. He is a generational talent, so expect him to have a significant impact on this series.

Pirates: Dennis Santana and David Bednar – Can I do two? It’s my series preview, so I say yes. These two have been a real bright spot lately. Santana hasn’t given up a run since June 3rd. Since that date, he has allowed just 3 hits in 9.2 innings. He truly deserves to be an all-star with how good he’s been this year. Bednar has also been excellent, regaining that all-star form. He has been outstanding in June, having surrendered just one run, which wasn’t even earned. He has thrown 9 innings and has given up 3 hits and has struck out 14. These two have both been a very pleasant surprise.

Mets: Luis Torrens – In such a stacked lineup, it’s hard to find a sore spot. But, the Mets recently optioned their young catcher, Francisco Alvarez, as he was struggling, leaving Torrens as the starter. The results haven’t been impressive. In June, he is batting a mere .098, which is only 41 ABs and just 2 RBIs, but with Alvarez in the minors now, Torrens is the guy.

Pirates: Isiah Kiner-Falefa – IKF was having a fantastic May batting over .340, but in June, he has been struggling to hit the ball. He is batting just .200 with only 2 extra base hits. Now, the whole team is having a hard time hitting, but he was doing solidly and is now just struggling to do so. With no power, his skills are to get hits, and he hasn’t been able to do that lately. He did have two hits in Milwaukee, so hopefully he can regain that form from May.

Mets: Griffin Canning (DTD), Jesse Winker (60 Day), Sean Manaea (60 Day), Mark Vientos (10 Day), Kodai Senga (15 Day), Jose Siri (60 Day), Max Kranick (15 Day), Aj Minter (60 Day), Rafael Ortega (7 Day), Tylor Megill (15 Day)

Pirates: Johan Oviedo (60 Day), Ryan Borucki (15 Day), Endy Rodriguez (60 Day), Tim Mayza (60 Day), Colin Holderman (15 Day), Jared Jones (60 Day), Justin Lawrence (60 Day), Enmanuel Valdez (60 Day)

Notes

  • The Pirates signed Genesis Cabrera to replace an injured Borucki, so look for Cabrera to make his debut with the team this weekend.
  • Cutch is currently tied with Juan Pierre for 184th on the all-time hit list as he continues to climb the leaderboard of this illustrious chart.

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Starter Spotlight: Business of Misiorowski

6-25-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

The Pirates are in the business of misery but still have the chance at a series victory if they can prevail against rock-star rookie, Jacob Misiorowski who enters play today with a pristine 2-0 record, a 1.64 ERA and 0.55 WHIP.

After surging through the minor leagues over the past few years where the Brewers #4 ranked prospect compiled a 3.04 ERA and 320 strikeouts over 233.2 innings, the 6’7 flamethrower is fully living up the the hype from his 2nd round selection by Milwaukee in the 2022 draft.

Misiorowski comfortably sits at 99 with his fastball and has reached 103 at times this year. It plays up even more due to his lanky frame and elite extension. He pairs the heater with a mid-90s slider and a high-80s curve with and infrequent low-90s changeup. 

Hitters have seen heat like this with the fastball but having secondaries thrown this hard with this type of release point? Man, this kid is special.

In an albeit VERY small sample size, opponents are batting .000 against his fastball, curve and changeup with just one hit (a home run) against his slider.

Yes, he has thrown 167 pitches at the major leagues and opposing hitters have only been successful against one of them. This isn’t even video game numbers; this is insanity!

He has already racked up 11 strikeouts with 4 walks so perhaps being over-eager at the plate has been hurting hitters at the dish. At AAA-Nashville this season, he had a strong 31.6% K rate but a very poor 12.3% walk rate.

 In his worst start of the season on May 31st, he only lasted 2 innings allowing 5 runs off 3 hits, 6 walks and a hit batter while only netting 2 strikeouts. His opponent? The Pirates top farm team: Indianapolis Indians.

Now, no one in today’s lineup was in that game in Indianapolis but hopefully, the team and organization saw something in a game where Misiorowski walked the bases loaded and then walked in two more runs after that, and maybe can get to him today.

A big key will be staying back on his heat and finding ways to get on base. High octane power arms are prone to control issues and blow-ups at times and, if his control is not there as he has shown in the past – let him throw 4 balls, get him where you want him and make moves from there. 

Two Guys Talkin’ Trades: It’s Closing Time

6-25-2025 – By Jud Verno – @JV_Pitt on X and Corey Shrader – @CoreyShrader on X

Justin Verno: Another early edition of 2 Guys Talkin’ Trades? This is getting out of hand. And with the Boston Red Sox moving Rafael Devers to the San Francisco Giants, the timing here feels right.

Corey Shrader: In late May, MLB Trade Rumors dropped something of a bombshell that stated Pirates ownership had personally said “no” to deals involving hometown closer, David Bednar. I think that the idea of Bednar being a tricky trade piece because of his Pittsburgh connection has permeated within the Bucs Twittersphere for some time. While there are no specifics on these theoretical moves, it does kind of help vindicate those people who have recognized some non-standard hurdles to a move involving The Renegade. This time around may not be so different, but it being out there openly now could mean otherwise.

JV: I  haven’t read or even heard anything specific connecting teams to Bednar, but this is definitely worth exploring after that MLBTR tidbit. Us ignoring a rumor like that would be like Santa not reading his naughty list. Just something that us Two Guys Talkin’ Trades have to at least acknowledge. 

CS: Yes. I believe that the appeal on the trade market for Bednar should still be there, specific mentions of interested teams or not. This type of public leak for behind the scenes information from a Front Office who typically does not let a lot of things out could be telling indeed.

JV: This won’t be the first time we’ve written something up on David Bednar and the possibilities of him being moved. However, this one does feel and hit differently and for a few reasons, Corey. 

CS: This year’s iteration is strange! His uneven early season performance and subsequent AAA demotion are clouding the picture a bit, aren’t they? 

JV: It sure has. But even with that, Bednar will be a name to watch at this year’s deadline. This is a prime example that bullpen arms – even ones as established as Bednar – are fungible. 

That does not mean the Bucs won’t field calls on him. Bednar is humming along here(more on that soon). 

First, let’s get into his value.  And I think it needs to be said, being from the ‘Burgh and liking IC Light holds no value to teams calling on him. 

The true value for Bednar is going to be hard to nail down as he is no longer seen as the automatic shut-the-door type of closer he was three seasons ago. 

Bednar got off to a slow 2025 campaign and this followed a disastrous 2024. 

CS: In previous Bednar trade proposals, the trade value was pretty consistently high. 2025’s version has seen that come down considerably. 

JV: Here’s that Surplus value

YearZiPS Projection
2025 0.6(ROS)
2026.9
Total War1.1
9×1.19.9
Payroll Est.: 10.1-0.2

So when looking at the formula, he’s close to a break-even guy. But there’s a caveat here, Corey. Back-end bullpen arms (closers and firemen) usually bring an overpay at the trade deadline. Setting realistic expectations is important with any Bednar return. 

CS: When I look at David’s performance in 2025, I am more and more convinced that the projections are too light on him. Virtually all of the performance and underlying markers are showing that he is still a talented pitcher. Don’t you agree?

JV: I do. Since being recalled from his brief stint in AAA, Bednar has looked sharp. How sharp?

ERA: 2.03,  FIP: 1.50,  xFIP: 2.39,  WHIP: 0.94 

All while striking out 38 in 26.2 innings (with a K% of 36.9%)

Was it the brief stint in AAA? Was it a minor adjustment?

Who cares. What matters, for our purposes, is how he’s looked since that recall and how that can translate into trade value. 

CS: The demotion & recall has really given me some pause in trying to assess just how to value Bednar myself. Does this deter other teams in any way? Does it even matter? Up above, I made reference to his underlying/peripheral numbers. These are the ones that really pop for me:

FIP: 2.20 (career best)

SIERA: 2.19 (career best)

K-BB%: 27.6% (career best)

GB%: 44.3% (career best)

There are several contending teams out there where Bednar would be the best RP in the bullpen from a talent aspect.

JV: In fact, as of writing this there were 25 teams still in the playoff hunt. 26 if you count the Baltimore Orioles who are 6.5 games out of a wildcard spot, granted with a record of 34-44. I’d say there are several teams who could be calling Ben Cherington (or whoever is making the calls this year). 

 A slight adjustment to his projections, a half a WAR per season, say?  That would put him around a $10 million SV.  Considering how Bednar has performed as of late, add in the general rule that back end relievers tend to bring an overpay; I  think we could see more value than $10M. But fans shouldn’t expect a pot of gold at the end of this rainbow. 

Let’s get to it. 

CS: Let’s do it, JV.

As of writing, there are a lot of teams vying for playoff positioning. This seems like it would make for bountiful options when trying to trade a player but I found several roadblocks in doing so. Be it poor matches in what the Pirates might be looking for and/or “need” or just uneven fits when it comes to potential trade partners. Ultimately, I settled on one that could feasibly pass the smell test.

Corey’s Deal

The Phillies get-

David Bednar – SU/CL – MLB (SV – $10ish M)

The Pirates get-

Justin Crawford – OF/CF – AAA (40+FV $4.00M)

No, these figures do not match up but hear me out. I think each player is “worth” more than what $ figure we are getting by calculating pure SV. 

As for Bednar, I laid out my case for him up above. I still think he is and should remain a good to very good back-end bullpen arm. The Phillies have some quality arms in their pen, but it is still a bit muddled. Orion Kerkering, Jordan Romano, & Matt Strahm are all quality arms, but they’ve been inconsistent in output. When you have championship aspirations and a championship caliber roster, adding another highly skilled and experienced bullpen arm is a great tool to holster in your toolbox.

Justin Crawford, in my opinion, is similarly undervalued at a 40+ FV.  But working within the parameters of our methodology, he could be a fit here.

In AAA at just 21 years old, Crawford is more than holding his own. Currently slashing .336/.413/.429 with a .388 wOBA & a 130 wRC+. One of his major flaws is that the game power is largely untapped as he sports a .092 ISO. He does however boast a strong .842 OPS with some encouraging batted ball markers hinting at future development (110.6 MAX EV and 103.2 90th% EV). 

The power is dragged down by sub-optimal launch angles at just 2.3 degrees on average, that in turn leads to astronomical ground ball rates (64.2%). He is able to run such a high batting average and on-base percentage due to his top-of-the-scale speed. This almost certainly would be difficult to maintain in the major leagues. 

Now, swing changes are not as easy as flipping a switch, but he could be an adjustment away from being an excellent big league OF. Having this type of athlete roaming CF or LF in PNC is something fans should be able to get excited about.

Jud’s Deal

JV:  There are a lot of teams who could use a closer or a fireman. Right now, Bednar could fill either or both of those roles. The New York Mets have an established closer in Edwin Diaz. He’s one of the best in the game but Steve Cohen has spent a lot of dough to get this team on the precipice of a strong postseason run. 

So adding Bednar to that BP and having a one-two punch there just feels right.

Mets get- 

David Bednar(and a case of IC Light)-CL- MLB (SV-$10M and a bump)

A Bednar and Diaz one-two punch would be something that teams would be jealous of. For those of us that remember Tony Waston setting up Mark Melancon? It would be like that only deadlier. And would give the Mets a closer for every outing. 

Liover Pegeuro-SS/2B-ETA-Debuted(SV-$10-15M Change of scene candidate)

I think this is a name we could see as a “throw in” kinda guy.  A change of scene seems to be heavily needed at this point.  Peggy looks to have a viable MLB career in his future, even if it’s a super-utility type role. He plays just about everywhere, 3B, SS, 2B. He even logged innings at 1B and CF in 2025. 

Pirates get-

Ronny Mauricio-SS/3B/2B-Debuted-(SV-$40M) 

Once one of the biggest prospects in the game, it is entirely possible that he would not be available for a Bednar package, but he should be. 

First off, he hasn’t played a ton of SS since his knee injury that caused him to miss the 2024 campaign.

Secondly, his career is off to a sluggish start. A .228/.282/.345 slash line isn’t exactly something I’d call noteworthy. However this is over an absurdly small sample size (40 games). It also makes it next to impossible to guesstimate a surplus value for him. 

Finally, the Mets can afford to use him in this trade given that four of the top ten prospects (per MLB Pipeline) are listed as shortstop/infielder so they are flush at these positions.

Is this a gamble considering his slow start?

Yes, it is. This is the kind of dude I’d take a gamble on.

For one thing the power is legit. In AA in 2022, he hit 26 home runs over 123 games. The following season at AAA, he hit 23 through 116 games before getting called up to the show. And the Bucs could use some added power to lineup which has been completely void of it. 

His position flexibility is also something that is appealing. The Bucs likely would look at SS with him but – and I know many will think me an idiot for saying this – the Bucs do not need to rebuild. They simply need to make smart upgrades and adjustments. 

Adding Mauricio isn’t just adding one guy with position flexibility. It gives the Bucs some latitude on how they upgrade the lineup. If they somehow get the Red Sox to give up Ceddanne Rafaela (in a deal for Mitch Keller, just sayin’)  they can slide Ronny to 3B, trade Ke’Bryan Hayes and play Rafaela at SS. Or just keep Rafaela in the outfield. 

This is exactly the kind of chess that the Pirates front office needs to be playing.

Wrap it up

CS: I think we’ve got a couple of fun proposals here, JV. Bringing back major league ready or very near major league ready pieces seems like the way to ease some sting fans might feel over trading a hometown guy & pretty well-liked piece.

JV: While Ronny Mauricio is a gamble, it really is the kind of trade the Bucs need to be looking at.The upside here is worth putting the cards on the table for.  That he has limped out of the gate could be the reason he’s attainable in this kind of trade but, aside from all of that, the ability to move him to different positions will be a valuable trait to have. There’s even a belief he has the tools to play in the outfield. 

Bednar, along with Mitch Keller are the best trade chips the Bucs have to help improve the lineup. Landing guys with some position flexibility like Mauricio would go a long way in giving  the Bucs some wiggle room in the other moves they can potentially make, allowing them to take the best player on the table and put together a lineup worthy of long lines at the concession stands. 

If you build it Mr. Nutting, they will come. 

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Starter Spotlight: Five Nights At Freddy Peralta’s

6-24-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

After claiming victory yesterday, the Pirates will shift their focus to a very familiar face in today’s game as they will take on Freddy Peralta in his 24th game against the Bucs – the most of any opponent for the veteran righty.

Peralta has been a picture of consistency this season, allowing 3 or less runs in all but one start this season (May 12 at Cleveland) and accumulating 5+ innings of work in all but one outing as well.

The lone sub-5 inning game?

That came on May 23rd against the Pirates as they got his pitch count to 101 in the 5th inning, forcing him out after 4.2 frames.

That start aside, Peralta has been among the best starters in MLB with a 2.76 ERA ranking 12th best in baseball and a .198 batting average against, which ranks 7th best overall.

I discussed Peralta previously ahead of the Pirates matchup with him last month but right now, let’s talk about his splits – specifically, his home/away splits as he has posted a 1.32 ERA over 41 innings at home while pitching to a 4.02 ERA outside of American Family Field.

Over 7 home starts this season, Peralta has held opponents to 1 run or less in six of them, including games against the Cubs, Twins and Athletics – each of which has an above average offense.

While both his 25% strikeout rate and 6.3% walk rates at home are sustainable and mostly within his control, he’s also benefited from an abnormally strong 91.4% strand rate when he toes the runner in Milwaukee this season. Additionally, while Peralta has maintained a strong 35.6% hard hit rate (82nd percentile), he gets barreled at a 9.9% clip (27th percentile) leading to a higher xFIP at home (3.84).

Similar to Chad Patrick yesterday, Freddy keeps to a fastball-heavy approach (~60%) sitting in the mid-90s with the heater. He is using the high-80s changeup as the main secondary against lefties and pivoting to a more even split with the changeup, low-80s curve and mid-80s slider when facing right-handed hitters.

Look to attack fastballs and lay off junk. He racks up whiffs and Ks but can walk batters as well (his 34 walks issued are tied for 7th most in MLB) so patience will be key for success against him again today.

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Gary’s Five Pirates Thoughts – Mediocrity is Not a Goal

6-23-25 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

Ben Cherington has embraced doing less with more. To a degree, every Pirates GM will have to do that, but there comes a point where you spend so much energy trying to reach mediocrity, you almost start to fool yourself into believing it’s a destination.

Part of a GM’s job is to help players perform, and part of it needs to be understanding talent when you see it, and moving out of the way. This is the aspect Cherington tends to fail. There’s such a focus in this franchise to reach the middle of the pack, it causes poor players to look up to being average, and it creates good players who try to apply the principles of the team and wind up sinking to the level they probably started higher than.

This GM needs to go, but it’s not just about picking players or trading for players, it’s about none of that mattering because at the end of the day, this guy is trying to create one player. A hitter who takes a bunch of pitches, swings hard at what he does swing at, and bluntly, it makes bad players passable and good players into mediocre contributors.

Lets Go!

1. “We Must Be Honest”

Really Ben Cherington? We must be honest? Cherington decided to show up for his Pirates run Q&A on 93.7 The Fan and here were his big quotes.

“I still believe the group of players we have in the organization currently is capable of playing winning baseball in 2025,” Cherington said. “I really still believe that. At the same time, it hasn’t happened yet. Not nearly consistent enough, and we have to be honest about that, too. We have to deliver more to our fans — bottom line. We know that.”

OK, So I’ve been told “we have to be honest” in the same sentence in which you’ve said you still believe this group of players is capable of playing winning baseball in 2025. We’ve now heard almost all of this, every single season since Ben Cherington took over. Thing is, we knew it was bullshit in 2020, 2021, 2022…, but it was supposed to be bad in those years, so it was pushed aside because, what’s he going to do, start saying everyone sucks?

So what is the plan at the deadline Ben?

“The goal will be to put more wins on the field as fast as we can,” Cherington said.

Yeah, no, it won’t be. As fast as you can would be this year. And we all, including you, know you won’t do that in 2025.

“It could be tweaks, it could be more than tweaks. I think that’s the open-minded part.”

Yes, the issue has been for sure that we haven’t been open minded. I’m glad that the moves we could make would be one of two options that anyone could define as the other.

“As much as I do believe there is a foundation here that gives us a chance to win sooner rather than later, there’s also the results. You have to be honest about, it might be tweaks, it might be more than tweaks to get us faster towards where we want to be.”

Year 6 of the rebuild, you believe in a foundation. The vast majority of which has been here for most of your time here. Faster, than what Ben? Faster than the 20+ years of losing the franchise did before they were actually competitive again over a decade ago?

Faster than you planned? Faster than what? We’ve also repeated the tweaks vs more than tweaks line which means absolutely nothing.

How the Pirates will handle this deadline, if you REALLY want to be honest is incredibly easy to cipher. They’ll be trading just about every guy on the last year of their deal with the exception of Cutch and those nobody wants. This certainly won’t lead to being “better faster” in 2025, even if they are good for the long term.

I guess I’d consider those “tweaks”.

“more than tweaks” well, that kinda has to be a player or players you weren’t planning on moving. In other words, guys you thought were part of that foundation who now need moved to change the actual construction of that foundation.

So on it’s face, you can’t both believe in that foundation, then turn around and change it.

More than anything, Ben is still talking like a guy who plans to win here at some point, not specifically next year, not even by 2028, just at some point all of his crazy smart work will pay off. All the things that haven’t come together or worked, will at some point work.

That’s a guy who either knows he’s not getting fired, or, completely unaware of how thin the ice he’s standing on happens to be.

I’d love for Cherington to be honest. I’d love to hear I don’t have the money to turn this around quickly, I wasn’t able to get us where I hoped under that constraint in a timely manner, now I need to change course and so does Bob or you’re going to be starting this whole thing over with a new Me very soon.

I truly would find it refreshing as hell to hear actual truth. We know it anyway, I just grow tired of hearing the same stuff repeatedly.

Lastly, I’d say if you truly do still believe in what you’ve built, all I can say is nobody in baseball agreed with you. Your fans didn’t agree with you. Some of your players didn’t believe you were right. Your manager was a complete cuck who allowed you to believe he believed, but you should very much so now know the new one doesn’t see your genius.

Liars can stop lying, but they probably struggle to ever really be trusted. Ben is like a cult leader who wrote a book about when the world would end and then has to find a way to keep his cult going after the date passed and his horde of kool-aid drinkers have some questions.

Move on from Cherington Now. It’s the only way to start the healing.

2. There is No Winning if THIS is Oneil Cruz

This season is not all on Oneil Cruz. He leads the team in a ton of statistical categories and he’s taken to Center field better than most expected, even if he still has hiccups out there on occasion.

In his last 30 games, he’s hitting only .190, getting on base at a .291 clip and he’s doing it while still batting leadoff.

Look, there’s no nice way to say this, if Oneil Cruz isn’t a star, this team is in trouble. They’ve got exactly 2 players who can truly star in this offense right now, in Cruz and Bryan Reynolds, but Cruz is THE guy who is supposed to provide most of the power. Cruz is the 5 tool player who is supposed to be electrifying the offense, sometimes carrying it himself, but always contributing.

Cruz averages 3.9 pitches per plate appearance.

With an 0-0 count this year, Cruz is hitting .419 with an OPS of 1.567
With an 0-1 count this year, Cruz is hitting .467 with an OPS of 1.467
With an O-2 count this year, Cruz is hitting .053 with an OPS of .106

Ahead in the count .266 average, OPS of .972
Behind in the count .125 average, OPS of .393
Even Count .250 average, OPS of .804

Look, everything here says Cruz needs to be swinging early, and often. But he’s not. He’s instead standing there, hitting lead off, taking pitches, working himself into trouble counts and failing to impact the baseball.

These stats aren’t universal. Some guys actually do better the more pitches they see, Cruz simply isn’t one of them, at least not at this point in his career.

In fact, no matter how many balls he sees, if he gets 2 strikes on him, meaning every iteration of 2 strike counts he’s hitting .085, with 99 K’s, 23 walks and a .348 OPS.

STOP ASKING HIM TO SEE PITCHES!

Be ready to hit the first thing you see in the zone, period. These numbers are so stark, it’s impossible to believe they haven’t changed anything here. At bat after at bat he takes strike one, maybe even two and then he goes about protecting the zone or trying like hell to work a walk.

Statistically, the AB is virtually over from the time he recorded strike 2.

This isn’t a leadoff hitter. He’s fast, and you want him to take a lot of at bats, that concludes the list of his qualifications to hit there.

The Proof is in the pudding, get Cruz back to being aggressive and you might get Cruz back, continue to ask him to be patient, you’ll always have this hope he becomes what you hyped, and you NEVER will.

This also happens to be the very best way to get him to cut down on K’s.

Nobody hits great with 2 strikes, but Cruz is an extreme example. This change should be easier to try than winning a bet on Ke’Bryan Hayes hitting 2 homeruns in a game.

3. Tommy Pham’s Eyes?!?

Honestly, a report came out that Tommy Pham has struggled to get the right contact lenses all season long to help him address his degenerative eye condition that he’s had for quite some time.

I have no doubt he has a condition, I have no doubt he’s struggled to get the right fit with prescription eyewear, but am I truly to believe suddenly this was actually a good signing?

Look, I get it. The dude has a problem, he’s been trying to fix it, I truly hope it helps him, but I’m sorry, this was never ever a good signing. I’m not sure I care about this from a Pirates perspective.

Especially if you’re telling me it’s almost July and just now they might have found the right prescription?

What?

Here’s Don Kelly talking about Pham Yesterday…

“He’s a pro,” Kelly said. “He’s an awesome teammate. He’s on the rail every single day, whether he’s starting or not. He’s always trying to get better and he’s helping other guys get better. … He works like he’s got 10 days in the big leagues, not 10 years.”

Who has he made better? Including himself?

Sincerely. Who in the world is performing well in the first place? Did he teach IKF to hit for contact?

Of everything that has happened this year, Pham is the thing I understand the least.

It was never a needle mover signing, it was painted as one immediately.

There have been excuses aplenty explaining why this guy who hasn’t done anything in quite some time isn’t doing anything this year…Again, as though it was a shock? The only people in baseball who thought Pham was a solid add here, work here.

Pardon me if I just want nothing to do with hearing about his friggin’ contact lenses here on June 23rd. I just don’t. If you wanted to come out with this in Spring by way of explaining how you possibly thought there was more there than he’d done in previous season because yinz figured out his eye care needs, OK, maybe that’s a nice angle way back then.

Now, I’m sorry it’s just not.

You’re to the point now where at best you’re taking your shitty car to the car wash before putting it on Craigslist, not the point where you’re trying to convince yourself to keep it.

4. THE Best Defender in Baseball

Bryan Reynolds praised Ke’Bryan Hayes for his defensive prowess with that exact statement. He’s the best defender in baseball.

I get it, I’m not here to argue the point. Bryan is right, Ke’Bryan Hayes is in my estimation the best defender in the game.

The question is, is that enough when you don’t have him surrounded with hitters. I mean, he’s having his best statistical season as a defender, but on this team, can you afford that?

I can and do appreciate things like this in baseball. And we’ve all seen teams force a bat in the lineup who can’t handle his position he’s been given. That’s often not good for the long term right?

So the Pirates have themselves an elite defender. Period. And that elite defender can’t hit. If this were 1984, he has long since slid to SS and everyone is happy.

At this point, Hayes is no longer capable of making that move, and in today’s game its almost unheard of to plant a glove at a corner infield spot.

The suggestions to trade Hayes aren’t because he’s a bad defender, they’re because we have a baseball team that simply can’t have glove only positions. If Spencer Horwitz winds up being a really solid first baseman but he never really catches on hitting, he won’t be here in 5 years.

If Nick Gonzales is really great at 2B and he never manages to mature as a hitter, he won’t be here in 5 years.

If they hadn’t extended Hayes, I honestly question if he’d still be here.

Feels like people want to make this potential trade of Hayes all about his bat, but to me it’s more about his health and bat. I feel lucky we’re getting a healthy Hayes, if only because it should make him movable.

If they don’t trade him, I’m afraid we’ll just have a spot in the lineup that doesn’t hit. I want them to move him to save themselves from what they’ve gotten themselves locked into, not because I think he’s an awful player.

On a playoff team with 6-7 hitters, Hayes can be himself and save runs, contribute the little he does and still be an integral part of the unit. On a team like this, he’s just another guy who can’t hit and sometimes a reason we lose 2-1 instead of 3-1.

5. Analytics are Not Your Enemy

Everyone knows Ben Cherington believes in analytics, and because of that, analytics have become some sort of bogeyman for way too many of you.

All teams use analytics, some just use them more wisely.

The first thing to know about analytics is that when you acquire new data, you should amend the outcomes. In other words, if some model told you Tommy Pham would hit 15 homeruns and murder left handed fastballs. Well, as you sit here in June, you should see, the 15 homeruns is a stretch, and he’s hardly murdering anyone let alone left handed fastballs.

Ben’s problem is, his analytics department told him what was possible or plausible and he can’t bring himself to admit it’s not anymore.

That’s a very simplified way to see what happens here.

They look at analytics. They believe the analytics. They assume irregularities brought on different outcomes from what they predicted.

It’s not even the department’s fault. They don’t stop generating new models, this GM just quits adapting. He takes the findings of the analytics department more as factual outcomes as opposed to plausible outcomes. So if analytics said Cruz should hit 45 homeruns this year and he’s got 30 in September, Ben will say something along the lines of “we feel he’s got more homeruns in there”.

In other words, Cruz didn’t do the best he could. Not that the model was off, or had no way of predicting how his lineup backers would do, or had no way to know all the pitchers he’d face, or the situations those at bats would come in.

These are miniature examples of a BIG machine, I’m simplifying it on purpose to help you understand, but importantly, I’m also pointing out, they have this stuff on every player.

Lastly, I’d say their formula is largely weighted toward the good much more than it should be. Say you think you need some number of runs to really compete this year. Arbitrary number like say 350 runs. All your analytics for individuals show you how the math should/could work out based on players getting X amount of at bats.

One of those players is Tommy Pham. He was supposed to help push say 40 of those runs across the plate. He’s produced next to nothing. The magic number for competitive still exists, even as he’s not touched his.

Ben just looks at this and says, well, Tommy will get those, just gotta keep playing. A normal manager would say, well, I missed big time on Tommy, it just isn’t there, lets move on.

Ben just sees it like July should be fire for him to hit those numbers.

Get it?

None of this makes analytics bad or unnecessary, it just makes them misapplied here in Pittsburgh, and more than anything trusted like someone doing a research paper with all references to Wikipedia.

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Starter Spotlight: No, This is Patrick!

6-23-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

After getting a rare offensive breakout in their game yesterday, the Bucs will look to keep the magic alive on the road as they travel to face the Brewers and rookie starter, Chad Patrick.

The 26-year old righty has a 3-7 record with a 3.50 ERA and 1.28 WHIP through his first 79.2 major league innings this season striking out 76 and walking 26.

The 2024 International League Pitcher of the Year is not quite replicating the success he experienced in the minors overall but has been enjoying home field advantage as his ERA in American Family Field (2.94) is nearly 1.5 runs lower than pitching outside the otherwise hitter-friendly terrain with an away ERA of 4.40.

Patrick features a fastball-heavy mix with a high-80s cutter and 4-seam/2-seam in the low-90s comprising nearly 89% of his total pitches thrown. He also adds in a high-80s changeup against lefties and a mid-80s slider against righties but hitters can mainly expect the fastballs tonight.

Lefties have had significant success against Patrick, batting .313 against his 4-seam and .271 against all of his pitches; however, at home, Patrick has held lefties to just a .207 average so he appears to have a bit of home field advantage.

Pittsburgh batters will want to target the fastballs and look to elevate. Patrick has both the lowest ground-ball rate (28.1%) and the highest line drive rate (30.7%) among starting pitchers with at least 300 batters faced this season.

He works up in the zone but the Bucs need to take advantage of men on base after they left 23 runners stranded in the Rangers series. Attack the heat and look to barrel up the ball to get an early series lead against the Brewers.

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Series Preview: Pittsburgh Pirates (31-48) at Milwaukee Brewers (43-35)

6-23-2025 – By Drew Cagle – @_dcagle on X

I’m back on for an NL Central preview, and apparently so are the Buccos’ bats. After a resounding 8-3 win over the Texas Rangers on Sunday at PNC Park, the team hits the road to do battle with the wild-card Milwaukee Brewers.

Pittsburgh is looking for a reversal of fortunes after losing their last three series to Texas, Detroit, and the Chicago Cubs. On the other hand, the Brewers have won 22 of their last 32 games. That’s the best mark in all of baseball during that time.

Their hot stretch including an impressive sweep against the Minnesota Twins this past weekend. Milwaukee went into Target Field and outscored the home team 35-14, putting up at least 9 runs in each game.

The two division rivals will meet for the first time this season inside American Family Field. When the Pirates hosted the Brewers in late May, the teams split a 4-game series. Adam Frazier scoring on a walk-off wild pitch was the highlight of the series for the Black and Gold.

6/23

Pirates: RHP Braxton Ashcraft – 11.2 IP, 1-0, 10 K/6 BB, 1.54 ERA, 1.29 WHIP

Brewers: RHP Chad Patrick – 79.2 IP, 3-7, 76 K/26 BB, 3.50 ERA, 1.28 WHIP

6/24

Pirates: LHP Andrew Heaney – 82.1 IP, 3-6, 61 K/27 BB, 3.94 ERA, 1.19 WHIP

Brewers: RHP Freddy Peralta – 88.0 IP, 7-4, 90 K/34 BB, 2.76 ERA, 1.11 WHIP

6/25

Pirates: RHP Paul Skenes – 102.0 IP, 4-6, 106 K/27 BB, 1.85 ERA, 0.88 WHIP

Brewers: RHP Jacob Misiorowski – 11.0 IP, 2-0, 11 K/5 BB, 1.64 ERA, 0.55 WHIP

Pirates: Spencer Horwitz has hit safely in 4 of his last 5 games, but he broke out big-time on Sunday against the Rangers. He went 3-for-4 at the plate, swatting two doubles and two RBIs. Since his insertion into the lineup in mid-May, Horwitz has offered Pittsburgh a solid bat for the middle of the lineup.

Brewers: To be candid, you could list several players here. Milwaukee’s been swinging a hot bat up and down the lineup, but I’d say Sal Frelick is the guy to fear most right now. The 25-year-old corner outfielder hit .500 (7-for-14) against the Twins this past weekend, and owns a respectable .751 OPS for the season. Of note, he is 0-for-6 lifetime against Sunday starter Paul Skenes.

Pirates: Andrew Heaney looks for a bounce-back start after getting roughed up during the first game of Thursday’s doubleheader in Detroit. He conceded 7 runs on 8 hits during just 4 innings, compiling a season-low game score of 17. In 4 career starts versus Milwaukee, he’s surrendered 5 home runs and a .275 opponent batting average. 

Brewers: Also on the bump, Chad Patrick has been struggling. It’s been feast or famine over the right-hander’s last couple of starts, striking out 8 and 5 batters, but allowing 5 and 4 runs, respectively. Patrick has lost his last 3 starts to the Padres, Braves, and Cubs. We’ll see how he fares against a different-caliber offense like Pittsburgh.

Pirates: Ryan Borucki, Endy Rodriguez, Johan Oviedo, Tim Mayza

Borucki was placed on the 15-day IL on Saturday due to a lower back injury.

Brewers: Garrett Mitchell, Brandon Woodruff, Blake Perkins, Nestor Cortes, Robert Gasser

Mitchell, who was rehabbing an oblique injury, went down with a left shoulder injury during a AAA game on Friday. He was on the 10-day IL.

Notes

  • Last Thursday, baseball fans infamously missed out on a battle between two of the best pitchers in baseball, Paul Skenes and Tarik Skubal. This time around, we’re set for a blockbuster matchup on Wednesday afternoon between two youngsters. Skenes vs Misiorowski will be must-watch TV at 2:10 p.m.
  • Milwaukee owns a division-best 13 wins against the NL Central, while the Pirates have the fewest with just 8.
  • Braxton Ashcraft, Monday’s Pirates starter, has pitched 6 shutout innings on the road this season, allowing just 2 hits in that span.
  • Pittsburgh needs to snap their cold spell. If they can split the first 2 games of the series, I’d feel comfortable handing the ball to Skenes on Wednesday looking for a series win.

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Starter Spotlight: Not A Leiter-Weight

6-22-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

When the Pirates had the 1st overall pick in the 2021 MLB Draft, there wasn’t a runaway favorite selection. Sure, there were some high-upside high school bats like Marcelo Mayer and Jordan Lawler but there were multiple outlets predicting the Pirates to take the Vanderbilt righty, Jack Leiter.

The Pirates ended up taking Henry Davis with 1-1 that year and, while the jury is still out on whether that was the right decision with his struggles to acclimate to the major leagues, the second overall pick hasn’t exactly latched on to success himself.

Since debuting last year, Leiter has a -1.7 bWAR with a 6.03 ERA over 97 innings pitched – among the worst in baseball over that stretch.

Leiter has been a bit better this season with a 4.40 ERA but the peripherals indicate he’s gotten a good bit of luck on the year.

His BABIP on the year is .237 (league average currently is .289) is down from .322 last season despite nearly identical hard hit rates (43.4% to 43.3%) and average exit velocity (91.2 MPH to 91.0 MPH) with an increased barrel rate (9.8% to 12.4%).

These factors, paired with a higher walk rate  (11.6%, up from 9.8%), are main reasons why his underlying numbers like xERA and FIP project a regression for Leiter.

Leiter pitch mix consists of high-90s fastballs (4-seam and sinker), a high-80s slider and a low-90s changeup with a lesser-used curve that sits in the low-80s.

When facing lefties, he will dispatch a fairly even offering with his main pitches being the sinker, 4-seam and changeup while righties primarily see the slider/4-seam/2-seam combo in their at-bats.

He has been surprisingly more effective against lefties, holding them to a .591 OPS compared to .792 when facing right handed hitters; however, much of that can be attributed to bad luck as his expected numbers for all pitches in these splits are extremely skewed. In particular, his sinker xBA-BA difference is nearly 150 points while his xSLG-SLG is 355 points of difference.

Bucs batters will want to stay on the fastballs as even righties have had more success against Lieter’s heaters than his breaking stuff (.334 wOBA compared to .278 against his secondary offerings).

Take walks, attack heat and try to salvage the series with a Sunday victory.

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Starter Spotlight: Between a Rocker and a Hard Place

6-21-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

After a tough opposing starter in multi-Cy Young winner, the Bucs will hope they can have more success against a struggling starter in Kumar Rocker, who has tossed 28.1 major league innings this year with a 7.31 ERA and 1.69 WHIP entering the day.

The rookie Rocker has had an unconventional path to the major leagues, spurring the Mets after being chosen third overall as some medical issues led to a lower-than-expected signing bonus offer in 2021 and returning to school.

His 2022 draft saw him taken 10th by the Rangers, where he been aggressively promoted through the system as he has just 75.2 minor league innings with a 2.50 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and 109 strikeouts over the past few seasons.

The 6’5 righty debuted with Texas last September and had a solid first few outings in the majors, compiling a 3.86 ERA over 11.2 innings pitched in 2024; however, he displayed some uncharacteristic control issues with a wild pitch, a hit batter and six walks in that time.

He’s doing better this season at limiting free passes (only 8 through 28.1 innings) but has hit two batters and tossed 4 wild pitches so the control problems still show up at times. He’s also not striking out batters at nearly the clip he is accustomed to as he has seen his K rate drop from 32.1% at AAA last season to 20.1% with the Rangers this year.

Rocker throws from a side-arm slot, utilizing a mid-90s 4-seam/2-seam fastball combo w it h a mid-80s slider to generate ground-balls at an above average rate. He mixes in a low-90s cutter, high-70s curve and high-80a change but mainly uses the fastball/slider options against opponents.

The Rangers’ 2nd ranked prospect has been successful against righties with his slider in particular being an effective weapon with right-handed opponents batting .200 with a 44.2% whiff rate. Unfortunately for him, however, lefties have been CRUSHING him, batting .333 against the slider, .360 against his sinker and .474 against the 4-seam fastball.

Stack lefties and attack the heat or hanging slider. He has big extension which makes his stuff play up but hitters have been squaring him up early this year so hopefully, the Buccos can keep piling on and get a weekend win.

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We Have to Talk About David Bednar

6-21-25 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

The very first thing I want to say, the turnaround of David Bednar this season is remarkable.

Truly. For a reliever to sink to the depths of where David had fallen and in season go to AAA as a veteran pitcher and set to work on correcting what had become wrong, or too tried and true to deceive most hitters anymore. The pitching staff did a great job of identifying things he could change, or use more often, and David worked on those things and a mechanical tweak.

When he came back he accepted he wasn’t the closer, just pitched and got his shots. He’s performed. Arguably better than since 2022. Point is, whatever they all did, including David, this is offseason stuff usually, very hard to pull off while you’re operating so many other places that command your attention.

Admirable. And I’m still proud of the hometown kid. Truly.

But another part of me thinks the best thing might be for this team to trade David Bednar, and at this deadline.

Now, you know me, I’m going to build my case, and I’ll even build in an out for those of you who just have ta have the yinzer stay, ok?

Let’s start with some facts, and estimations for David Bednar.

The Money
David makes 5.9 million, next year he has arbitration 3, his last before becoming a free agent.
He’s going really good now, but if he’s taken to arbitration, I bet it’s around 7 million. Not undoable. In other words, the Pirates don’t “have” to dump this, or “can’t afford”, that’s not relevant here really here.

The Value
At the deadline, the one proven “chip” that historically gets the best trade value is a closer. For instance, for where the Pirates were last year they were fools for not trading Chapman if they had no plans on keeping him, I digress.

Our closer happens to potentially add to a playoff team for next year too rather affordably. So that means two things for the Pirates. They don’t have to do this at all, and the beauty of that is the other team knows that too. They come to the table with more just to get into the hand on a deal like this. Especially if he’s performing like he is.

You’re going to want names in returns and stuff like that to express value, but I can’t do that. As we get closer, perhaps I’ll try to find a marriage out there, but right now, I’m just saying, this is an interesting guy who could bring us a player or two. We happen to need a player or two. Think we should start maybe….shopping a bit?

But, Didn’t You Just Say He Was Good? Why Not Extend Him?
David will be 31 next year. What started to happen to him in 2024 and into this season felt to me like what naturally happens to a well used closer over the 4 years of a bunch of appearances. To his credit, he’s turned it around.

Now, it’s my opinion that signing a 31 year old closer to a lengthily extension is not a good idea. I’m not sure what you’d offer either. This is his first and only shot to get paid by a big money deal. So what would you think is fair? 7 million per for 2 or 3 years? I guess I could get behind that.

Maybe the best way I can put where I am on this, really. If when Cutch wanted to come back the Pirates had signed him to a 4 year deal, I honestly think I’d have started calling for Cherington to be fired longer than I have been. As we sit here today, I’d have been wrong. I’m not perfect, and maybe I lean a bit too much into believing Father time isn’t close.

If the Pirates disagree, and want to extend him, I get it, but not everyone gets to walk away on top like Mariano Rivera did. I’d hope the Pirates would practice caution predicting how long a closer is going to pitch like one.

The X Factors
Sentimentality. I’m not saying it’s always a bad thing, but I don’t expect fans understood trading Walker either, although his chronic back issues kinda started to show what they saw coming. I’m also not discounting that moving Walker was something Nutting regretted. At least didn’t like what the community Walker was almost constantly hands on with repping the team, had to say to him about it. And then he hires a yinzer to be the manager, who has only had “good” Bednar in his bullpen, and this yinzer has Bob’s ear right now, and Bob, well, listen, I can’t know any of this will play out. I’m just saying, I could see some of these dominos falling and such.

David himself, is a huge X factor. What if he much like Cutch is just like F it, I’m a Pirates pitcher damnit. 5 mil year to year, my captain oh captain. LOL, ok, I’m playing it up, and selling him short. He’s totally worth 7 million next year, honestly, I mean it. Maybe the year after too. I’m kidding, but kinda not too, I’d be more ok with this. So if he were to come at them with that, well, ok.

Closing
I personally do not believe extending David is a good idea. I think he’s worth quite a bit, and I don’t think, extended or not, it’ll ever be higher.

This team needs offense, and they have pitchers. They need offense that has some league experience, or is blocked somewhere.

David is a guy I believe on his own could net you a nice player, but packaged with someone else you might actually start getting somewhere, either way, I want this on the table.

Of course, you’re not going to want Cherington to do it, spare me the comment ok, I get it. Some of these decisions, they need made, regardless of what Bob does here. I can’t fix the team, best I can do is talk about what a rational team might do and then try to predict the many ways this one could f it up.

It’s not enough to just spend like Tampa, you have to do some of the other things they do too, like develop the hell out of everything, and move a guy when the time is right. Maybe I’m wrong and now isn’t that time, ok, but maybe I’m not too.

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