Guys Like Palacios & Andujar are Forcing Decisions this Offseason for Pirates

9-23-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Even as Joshua Palacios and Miguel Andujar continue to hit baseballs and contribute to the Pirates strong season finish, it’s not easy to place either on the 26-man roster to begin 2024.

I mean, it works now, with a 28 man roster and pitchers who’ve thrown as many innings as the team will allow matriculate to the IL in favor of whatever constitutes a fresh arm this time of year. And still you hear cries for Canaan Smith-Njigba or Nick Gonzales to get a taste in the waning season.

Point is, there’s competition for these spots right now, and we’ll see this team bring in even more this offseason.

Don’t mistake me, I can see Joshua Palacios as a bench bat, and a good 4th outfielder type, totally, not even saying it to placate you, but as I look at the roster, it’s really hard for me to see he and Andujar. Hell, when I look at it long enough, I start struggling to place a bunch of guys.

Let’s do a little exercise, figuring we’ll have 13 position players who come North with the team. Let’s also go ahead and suppose they sign absolutely nobody, not even Cutch. Hey, most of you according to many comments I get anyway don’t believe Nutting will anyway. Ignoring completely what was done last time they built or last offseason for that matter, but I digress.

Again, no additions.

The Starting 9

Ji-Hwan Bae – CF/2B
Bryan Reynolds – LF/DH
Ke’Bryan Hayes – 3B
Henry Davis – DH/RF
Jack Suwinski – RF/CF
Oneil Cruz – SS/DH
Liover Peguero – 2B/SS
Jared Triolo – 1B/3B/2B
Endy Rodriguez – C

Quibble about which 2B will win out, bemoan that there should be a vet 1B, whatever, the assignment was what we have now, no additions. Those very additions I’ll be using shortly to make my point.

The Bench 5

Jason Delay – C
Connor Joe – Corner OF/1B
Nick Gonzales – 2B/SS/3B
Josh Palacios – OF/DH/PH
Miguel Andujar – Corner OF/DH

That’s it. That’s all our spots. Maybe you’d choose differently, that’s fine, but you can at least appreciate it isn’t easy right? Like if Bae is gonna be a CF, you have to have a bench player who can cover and since Triolo is starting at 1B, Hey, it’s Gonzo right? Connor Joe would have to stick around to backup 1B, I mean, you need only see the end of this season to see how much the Pirates like Andujar at 1B.

A team claiming they want to make the playoffs next year should probably add some talent with experience. For the purposes of this piece, the names aren’t important, except for one.

The Additions

I personally feel they have to add a First Baseman, but to make this incredibly hard as quickly as possible, allow me to toss in one Andrew McCutchen.

You want him back. The fan in you can’t have it any other way.

The team wants him back, Cutch wants to be back. They can afford it, they will pay for it.

He’s not retiring.

The version of Cutch we just watched can only do one thing, DH. If we’re lucky, the version who comes back in 2024 can do that and play RF once a week or so, but I can’t count on it.

Can I be completely honest with you? If this weren’t Cutch I can’t honestly say I’d be crying for a pretty much DH only free agent. I can think of things that would help far more from shear ability to fill in elsewhere, but it’s going to happen.

Boom right?

Immediately my starting 9 at least partially kicks Henry out of DH. Probably loses Josh Palacios or Andujar a spot right there if you’re even half way honest. Palacios has an option, Andujar doesn’t and would need tendered a contract for arbitration by December of this year.

That’s just Cutch folks.

You know they have to upgrade First Base. Triolo might well turn out over there, Joe is surely capable, but you need a starter to at least start the season and operate as a mentor. Again, name isn’t important, Santana, Belt, whatever. Point is someone else has to go from that list.

Is it now the one of Andujar and Palacios you allowed to stick? Is it Gonzales because now Triolo can be a true backup not starting at 1B? Is it Bae/Henry?

That’s really just a minimal investment to the offense. I’ve heard a ton of you say they should get a “true” CF claiming Jack and Bae can’t cut it. Or a “Power Hitting Corner OF” that theoretically is out there, better than Jack and only like 10 million. Imagining it is though, go ahead, remove another. Just make it make sense.

Summary

This time of year it’s easy to believe a lot of what you’re seeing, or to feel certain players who were fringe are now essential contributors. I do it too, this isn’t me sitting on a mountain top telling you I’m smarter, I just think about this stuff long before it happens because that’s the way my brain is broken lol.

Note, I didn’t mention guys you’d already assume won’t make it like Alika Williams or Rivas. In many ways, this roster doesn’t have as much room as one would think, and regardless of who you think is or isn’t good, that roster I laid out up there is very much so a likely configuration if they chose to add not one blessed thing, which they won’t.

In other words, the sun won’t rise on a day where this Pittsburgh Pirates management team sees more value in Miguel Andujar than they do Connor Joe, so this is where you must apply, what you or I think doesn’t matter, this is how they think.

Now in this instance, I happen to agree with them and even if I didn’t, look at the roster, they need what Joe can do more than what they believe or will allow Andujar to do. That maybe changes as they add a free agent or two.

Have honest conversations about the roster. This stuff is going to hurt for some fans who have loudly backed someone who realistically has the slimmest of chance of making it next year. Even really well performing prospects might have to wait.

It’s a new stage of the build, and good players escape from deep teams all the time. Sometimes via trade, sometimes because of Baseball’s CBA that legislates roster movement, but solid talent can’t show itself without the right injury at the right time, or a weak roster spot once you get here.

You want to cut Rivas and Option Williams right now for CSN and Gonzales, ok, none of the things we discussed will change.

You’ll learn nothing in the 5-10 at bats each gets, and lose the same amount from someone like Andujar, Palacios or Peguero. Still, I’m fine with it, just know, it won’t matter beyond maybe rewarding a kid.

That’s enough, the pitching staff is it’s own scary story in which I could literally see Roansy Contreras waived if he doesn’t make the club in March being out of options and all, but that’s another story.

Listen to each other as we go through this, and think through these roster moves. It’s all just about sports after all, and it’s supposed to be fun.

Minor League News And Brews: Pirates Prospect Depth And Competitions

https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-895ze-14b15cc

Craig breaks down the numbers concerning players that are actively fighting for a roster spot heading into 2024; primarily in the middle infield and outfield. 

Craig Toth covers the Pirates for Inside The Bucs Basement, and is a huge Pittsburgh Pirates Baseball Fan; especially when it comes to the Farm System. Listen. Subscribe. Share. We are “For Fans, By Fans & All Pirates Talk.” THE Pirates Fan Minor League Podcast found EVERYWHERE podcasts can be found and always at BucsInTheBasement.com!

Bucco Blasts: Palacios Earning Keep, Is 2024 Contention Realistic?

9-22-23 – By Cody Flavell – @LetsTalkPit on Twitter

Don’t you hate it when life gets in the way? Well after a bit of time without Bucco Blasts, we’re bringing it right back to you as the season starts to wind down for the Pirates.

The all-too-familiar feeling of September rolling around and the Pirates playing for next year has set in. The Steelers have already played two games at Acrisure Stadium and have rendered the Pirates moot amongst the majority of Pittsburgh. If you haven’t been paying attention, the Buccos are 10-8 this month and looking to post a 15+ win difference over the 2022. Despite how the season unfolded, that is a solid improvement.

I don’t want to waste your time talking too much about their performance because if you’re reading this, you probably still care about the Pirates so lets start discussing some actual Pirates topics, shall we yinz?

Palacios Earning 2024 Role

I got to admit it. Joshua Palacios’ promotion earlier this season felt like another in a long line of major league rejects. The 28-year old was a minor-league Rule 5 pick in the offseason. After younger prospects such as Canaan Smith-Njigba and Travis Swaggerty came and went back to the minor leagues, Palacios grabbed a hold of a platoon spot in the outfield and ran with it.

Don’t get me wrong, Palacios isn’t an all-star. He likely never will be. But what he does have is a bubbly personality that is good for the locker room while being a serviceable fourth outfielder for the young ball club.

No one is chomping at the bit to see a guy with a .230/.270/.404 slash line play every day. That doesn’t mean there isn’t a spot for him next season if the Pirates don’t seek outside help for their outfield.

Bryan Reynolds and Jack Suwinski make up 2/3 of the everyday lineup out there. The right fielder position isn’t locked down by anyone specific and that is where Palacios comes in. He plays good defense with a bat and speed and that is all you can ask for out of him. At 28, his days were numbered to make a case as an MLB player. Maybe he won’t blossom into an everyday starter but he is a feel good story that could parlay it into a safe Opening Day role next year with a good finish and solid spring training next year.

2024? If Cherington Says So…

This past weekend, Ben Cherington stated that the organizational goal for next season is to win 84 games. Where he pulled that exact number out of is a mystery but it isn’t bad to have goals. How hard will it be exactly for the Buccos to reach that goal? That remains to be seen. But that would be a 24-win improvement from last season and at least a 10-game improvement on this season.

Impossible? No. Ambitious? Certainly.

Look, it is hard for me to believe that the Pirates can become 84-game winners next season when there is quite literally two actual starters on the team in Mitch Keller and Johan Oviedo. Injuries and underperformance have hindered that but guys like Luis Ortiz and Quinn Priester have become bulk guys instead of traditional starters. They’ve got to take large leaps to be part of next season’s rotation.

The Pirates will sign at least one or two pitchers this offseason. They’ll likely be more of the Rich Hill/Vince Velasquez-type as opposed to the Lucas Giolito-tier. There’s nothing wrong with that. Every team needs them. However, that would mean those types of guys would likely fill in the middle of the rotation instead of the backend like they should. That would be concerning. It should be noted too that they’ll be returning J.T. Brubaker as well.

Oneil Cruz is due back and you’d figure he would be a massive boost. But after almost a full year off of baseball, how can we be so sure he’ll come back and be an electric, middle-of-the-order bat? A big portion of next season will hinge on his health and performance.

Let’s assume the Pirates go 5-5 over their final 10 games. That would put them at 76-86 on the year. That is a big improvement over last year. Best case scenario they finish 7-3 and win 78 games. Either way, that would be a big win overall despite a 20-8 start.

The progress with this roster was certainly there and maybe a few more wins over the Cubs this season would’ve had things a bit more interesting heading into September. Regardless, is the roster ready for contention in 2024? Man, I want to believe it but there is some money that has to be spent and moves that have to be made for me to concede that they could be a contending team next season.

Trimming The Fat Will Be Important

You can’t field a 26-man roster full of stars. That just doesn’t happen even with the best teams in the league. But the depth players should be guys who you feel at least comfortable with if they come up in a big spot late in the game. That doesn’t apply to some guys on the Pirates’ roster.

Alika Williams has as smooth a glove as the Pirates have on the team. His OPS is .543 on the season. Ji-Hwan Bae is a young fast player but if he isn’t bunting, there isn’t a high confidence that he can get on base. Alfonso Rivas is a 28-year old with career .661 OPS as a first baseman. These are the types of guys the Pirates should look to replace in the offseason.

Bae could be an exception because he really is a speed demon and plays a solid centerfield but also has rookie moments in the field. The other two? Those are guys that don’t need to be on the Pirates’ roster.

If the Pirates want to be serious, they absolutely need to address their first base position. I like Jared Triolo and suggested in the last edition of Bucco Blasts that he could play some at the position. He isn’t a long-term starter there. He’d be a perfect plug-and-play matchup guy behind a true, everyday first baseman.

Henry Davis is going to have to take a step next year akin to the one the Steelers need out of Kenny Pickett. Cruz has to come back healthy. There is a lot that needs to happen next year but trimming the fat should be the biggest focus heading into 2024.

Thank you all for reading along and we’ll be meeting again in this space soon.

Hump Day Pirates Q&A

9-20-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

It’s been a while, but man have I been busy. Just this weekend I was in Ohio for my wife’s cousin’s wedding. Totally planned to write a bit while there in the hotel, but my goodness we were booked almost the entire time.

A wedding in the middle of a forest with a Lord of the Rings theme, which if you know David is 100% what you’d expect and the funniest thing is while we were all inundated with middle earth stuff, there I am talking baseball with 10 old guys my wife’s grandmother pointed my way after we talked ball for an hour. You’d be shocked how many of today’s questions I was trying to field off the top of my head while listening to the musical score for the fellowship.

At one point I found myself talking a Reds fan out of despair about Elly De La Cruz! Thankfully none of you asked for the same.

Baseball is just a part of me, and seemingly everyone knows it, even people I’ve never met, even people wearing robes and dancing to Rump Shaker at the same time.

Congrats Heidi and David (Huge Bucco Fan)! You’re good people, and perfect for each other.

Question 1

I know you and Jim have talked about this on the pod but what exactly do you do with Nick Gonzales? Do you try to switch him to first base or possible trade bait to get a starting pitcher? – John @JGor492

Such a hard question John. He’s actively killing it in AAA, but he’s got his work cut out for him to win the second base job. Even if he were to win it, or Peguero were to get hurt, Bae were to just be permanently moved to the outfield, well then you have Termarr Johnson who barely slowed after being promoted this year. In other words, how long would the victory parade last anyway?

To be clear, while I’ve suggested it several times, I’ve never heard even a suggestion as to it’s plausibility from anyone who matters. It’s just me trying to use a gaping hole to find a place for a bat I think might matter, and even then, I’d want him to do it at AAA and get a qualified MLB 1B in 2024.

As to the trade bait portion, no matter how I dice up this roster, even the extended roster beyond the 40-man, I keep coming up with odd men out, or at least redundancies. That makes Nick and several like him 100% possible for a deal and yes, any one of them could wind up helping another team or falling on their face.

It’s part of why I get so frustrated about seeing 200+ at bats from say a Joshua Palacios while Canaan Smith-Njigba hits 20 bombs in AAA and can’t see the field when he makes the team out of Spring and earns a recall mid-season. Hey, they know more than I do, but best case for Palacios is not the same as best case for CSN.

Question 2

Everyone knows how you feel about Andy Haines as a hitting coach. But does bringing him back (assuming it happens) change your thoughts on potential 2024 success? And how can guys overcome it, if at all? Maybe more going the Hayes route? – Nick Cammuso @npc210

They young guys aren’t hitting. Easy to blame the hitting coach. Will they rebound and do ok, or is this whole rebuild on the cusp of crumbling? – Bobby Nacho

It absolutely shakes my confidence, sure. I look at coaching almost like doctoring, if that’s a word. First, do no harm. Anyone who watched the camera pick up a nice long deep look into Jack Suwinski’s eyes after another strikeout in a 1 for 43 slump can easily see, that sumbitch been harmed.

That said, I think there’s enough talent here to raise the level of offensive output, and to the Pirates credit, they have not told anyone they can’t seek outside, or inside help. As to the Hayes route, well, let’s see how that route continues into 2024 before we buy any flowers and best wishes cards for Andy.

I think he’s an ineffective hitting coach, but I’m increasingly convinced he’s coaching what they want, even if that aspect itself could be done better. Toward the end of the season they seem to have finally figured out they need to be more aggressive.

The best team in the league hitting with an 0-2 count is Atlanta (best in just about everything as you know) at .215, the Pirates sit at .126 good for 29th place. 0-1, again Atlanta at .358, Pittsburgh .308. Yet coaching never prioritized swinging at a non preferred strike. Heck, you’ve watched them, when a player gets 1-0 9 times out of 10 they’re taking that second pitch. At 1-0 the Pirates batted .332 at 2-0 .299. Swing, the friggin’ bat. At 3-0 they’ve recorded 2 hits and 3 RBI with a .500 batting average and 76 walks. Now, should your goal be that walk?

Sigh. Never tee me up to hate on Haines bro.

I’m not going to sit here and say that’s all coaching, the Braves are a brilliantly talented team, but the league as a whole has fairly consistent stats backing up that any coaching that considers it ok getting to 0-2 before opening up the menu is probably not smart.

Question 3

I know it’s kinda of early for this but who are some possible free agent pitching targets for this offseason that are realistic? I’m thinking a step above the recent Rich Hill, Tyler Anderson types. Is Gilioto cost prohibitive? – Jim Maruca

First, I probably wouldn’t limit my hunting grounds to the free agent market, but…

I like the chances that Eduardo Rodriguez opts out in Detroit. He’s a 30 year old lefty and will probably get interest in the 20 million dollar range. And before we say that’s crazy, the Pirates Payroll after arb will likely be in the 40’s. I think we’ll see the payroll reach 80-90 million next year and that’s even if they extend Keller. Still might not be something Nutting would do, but he certainly should consider it.

Alex Wood is another I really like and I think he could be had for 8-10 million. Luis Severino will probably rake in 10 or so and he’s been injury prone, not bad at pitching. Michael Lorenzen should get 12-14 per and I love his upside.

Believe it or not the Pirates are at least kinda in on Yoshinobu Yamamoto the 25 year old Japanese star, hard to say what that investment would be but we’ve seen them similarly go after Kang.

Now, I’d consider plenty others, but those are all realistic in my mind. Here’s my nutso trade idea I promised you, Alek Manoah. Incredible 2022, awful and dysfunctional, relationship hurting 2023, it got so bad he refused to report to his minor league assignment. That’s a potential ace if you can get him right and the Jays almost have to move him.

Giolito struggled mightily this year and is still projected to get 17+ million per. Yeah, I get taking a risk, but that one has no parachute.

Question 4

How much should the average person be concerned about the way this team develops young players with most of our youngsters really struggling in MLB? – James Littleton

We’re all average persons, I mean, you’ve seen me golf James. First thing I’d say is there are different degrees to struggling. On the mound especially.

I’ve mentioned before I’m much more concerned about the transition from AAA to MLB especially with this many prospects all at once. They require more attention than a veteran and when you have 15 or so at once, man, that’s a lot to ask.

Again, speaking as an average person, I only get really concerned if I don’t see anything. Like if I see no foothold, I wonder what they have to hold onto. There aren’t a ton of those for me. Maybe Cody Bolton, but most everyone else has shown at least flashes of what people liked, or have a skill that can’t be replaced easily.

Now, against the league and their rivals, I guess I’d say my perception at least is that the Bucs don’t do as well as others, but I was just talking to a friend in Seattle who claims Julio is the only non piece of crap prospect they’ve had in years. LOL.

Bottom line, worry all you like, I personally would be more concerned if they were returning proven out busts in 2024 as opposed to slow to grow prospects.

Endy has done well behind the dish, but has struggled at the plate, much like his promotion to AAA went and we al know how that evolved. Davis was probably rushed in hindsight. Gonzales I kinda don’t understand even right now what they’re doing. Peggy has impressed me with his power and glove. Bae is starting to figure out his identity after 2 solid years of them telling him to hit more dingers. Triolo has been as advertised, maybe better. Priester they refuse to challenge in AAA and he’s learning currently. Ortiz was lazy this offseason. Contreras had his mechanics tweaked and it broke him, hopefully not forever.

Mixed bag bro.

Question 5

It’s been a big climb in a short period of time but Solometo has struggled some on his most recent stop. Obviously fatigue may be a factor but has there really been anything indications in these outings that suggest alarms or just growing pains? – J.W. Sanders

Tired, and on the development list. Overall, a very very positive year or Solometo. I do think he’ll have some hurdles facing better hitters in 2024, but nothing negative I can point to this year at all really, kid was gassed in his last couple and it was visible.

Question 6

How is it we can beat every team in our division but the Cubs? Cubs have won 10 of 11 games they out scored us 88-28 – Shawn Wheeler

They’re better, and they’re a bad matchup for the Pirates. Their hitters swing the bat early and often. Our pitchers are coached to be strike throwers. Put those both together and you have very few 0-2 counts unless you have swing and miss stuff in the zone. Pirates do have some of those guys, but only 2 in the rotation as of right now.

I really won’t spend much time here because in 2 days we’re done with them and next year, they won’t be them anymore.

Question 7

Have we heard anything new on Max Kranick since being put in AAA as far as his comeback?

Part 2 Do we know anything about Burrows or Brubaker and their recovery at this point as well? – J.W. Sanders

8 starts for Max totaling 17 innings, that’s just not much to go on. As he’s actively recovering, it’s hard to critique anything aside from “Hey kid, arm feel good?”

Burrows and Brubaker both had full UCL (Tommy John) surgeries. That’s usually an 18 month recovery and that’s when the rehab begins in earnest on the mound if everything has gone right. I doubt sincerely either will play significantly in 2024. I certainly wouldn’t count on it.

Long story short, when a player has full TJ, you just aren’t gonna hear anything for a good 12 months and even then it’ll be more like hey, JT just started long toss, and that’s like 2 months of the process, then the next step, throwing off a mound, and not sharp sliders mind you, just 60MPH tosses.

A guy like Vince Velasquez had partial TJ surgery, he could conceivably make his way back during 2024, but its hard to imagine before like June minimally.

Kranick had his surgery June 3rd, 2022, so here we are roughly 15 months out and he’ll finally, likely be ready for Spring Training in 2024 barring any setbacks. Even then, they’ll have him strictly restricted to an innings count.

Question 8

What questions, if any, can still be answered in the final 11 games this year? – Shawn Conley

Not much Shawn. The team has kinda made their decisions on who they wanted to see and who they were ok not seeing.

Biggest open questions are upcoming roster choices like Andujar who they have to decide to tender or not. They simply don’t have many of those choices to make.

Try to win for these kids because these kids are largely coming back in 2024.

Question 9

Who would you trade this off-season whom can bring in real starting pitching? Who are you willing to trade and who is untouchable? – Ryan Antonucci

Untouchable? Reynolds, Hayes, Cruz, Suwinski (yes I mean it), Keller, Oviedo, Endy, Henry, Skenes. The list isn’t long, but I’m being super discriminating.

Now who can they move? Honestly just about anyone else they want. To get real impact starting pitching back though, it’ll have to be MLB ready or MLB top 100 quality. Teams looking to deal MLB starting pitching with control typically know they themselves are 2-3 years away so it almost always winds up being prospect driven.

So let’s be idiots. Say you want Dylan Cease from Chicago. He has 2 years of arbitration and the Sox would want two good prospects back. Skenes isn’t going anywhere, but you might have to part with Termarr. You can offer Gonzales, but they can see why you’d offer that instead. You could toss them someone like Mlodzinski or Holderman, a stud reliever with YEARS of control, or maybe even a Jones or Priester.

If you’re filling a need now, you have to not feel the need to clutch guys who are close. Make no mistake though, for a franchise who have trained their fans to stare at the minors and dream, a move like this will absolutely hurt.

Question 10

Do you think we will be a playoff contender team in a couple of years? – Nicole Chewning

Nicole, I honestly think they’ll be a playoff contender next year. I just wrote about this in Monday’s 5 Thoughts at 5, so I’ll point you there.

Question 11

How many innings does Skenes see next year? How many of those innings are at the major league level? Also, what does your projected 2025 Pirates starting rotation look like? – Phil Chaplin

I think 150 – 170 or so is a solid semi educated guess and that’s hard to say. If the team does what they should in the offseason they won’t be dying for SP help for a good chunk of the season and there’s no telling he’d be the first call up with Jones, Solometo, Ortiz, Contreras types all floating around too.

As to 2025, impossible. I simply won’t do it Phil, that’s Kody Duncan stuff, not by bag. For instance before this year would you have projected 2024 with no Contreras or Ortiz? Would you now? Would you have included Oviedo? I wouldn’t.

I’ll say this, I expect Keller to be in it and extended, and I expect Paul Skenes somewhere in there.

Pirates Past, Present And Future Plans

https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-4239i-14acec3

Craig and Chris discuss Ben Cherington begin by discussing Ben Cherington’s most recent statements; which leads them down a path of talking about the value(s) of Hayes and Reynolds’ contracts, the additions that could/should be made and how they get ultimately get the extra 8 or so wins that the Pirates GM pointed to as a goal.  

Brought to you by ShopYinzz.com! Craig Toth covers the Pirates for Inside The Bucs Basement, and joins his buddy Chris at a 9-foot homemade oak bar to talk Pittsburgh Pirates Baseball. Listen. Subscribe. Share. We are “For Fans, By Fans & All Pirates Talk.” THE Pirates Fan Podcast found EVERYWHERE podcasts can be found and always at BucsInTheBasement.com!

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five – The 70 Win Mark

9-18-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Today is a big long look at what’s coming. Not the end of the season, but how this whole thing will progress.

1. Playoff Push in 2024

It was nice to hear Ben Cherington acknowledge this will be the goal in 2024, but honestly, I didn’t really need to hear it to know it simply had to be the target. The progression up to this point from the time this regime took over to now has gone almost exactly the way I scripted it out back in 2020, up to and including the 2023 season in which I said the team would look better and more fleshed out in September than April, and that they’d flirt with .500. Well, having that still on the table with 12 games left (even acknowledging they won’t get there) is the very definition of flirting with it.

There are holes, just like there were every other year heading into the offseason, but there are far fewer year over year which again is exactly what you’re hoping for when you enter one of these build efforts.

After 2020 there were something like 2-4 “answers”, after 2021, 3-5, following 2022, 5-7 and finally after this season they’re closer to 10-12. All of those numbers are locks to return and likely start, but there is a healthy “bullpen” if you will of plausible contributors too.

Bottom line, it’s time to spend some money.

This off season the Pirates spent about 35 million to fill out the roster, and heading into this Winter they’ll need to fill probably 2 spots in the rotation and spend some cash at first base.

What’s funny to me is people watched this team spend that 35 million when the team itself actually filling all the holes was very unlikely, but now that the team should legitimately be ready to set their sites higher, the assumption seems to be that “Nutting won’t spend” to get there.

OK, I mean he is cheap, but there’s little reason to expect they won’t at least spend that amount or close to it right? OK, Cutch is 5 mil again, let’s just cross that off the list. That still leaves 30 million, if they don’t increase it at all for a first baseman and a couple pitchers.

Bottom line folks, we aren’t asking for them to start over here and make it work on a shoe string, we’re asking for them to do at least what they did last year and the playoffs are probably in reach. Add more, increase the chances.

I 100% get why nobody trusts Nutting, I’ve been here too folks. That said, I look at what was done in the Winter prior to this season and I just can’t get to the place where he comes into this one pounding his fist they need to spend less.

The best way I can put this is thinking of it like a Thanksgiving dinner. If you’re cooking this feast for the first time you have to buy the seasonings, probably have to get serving ware, cook ware you likely never needed but suddenly do. Your budget has to be high because simply you don’t have much to build on. The next year you have to cook this dinner, you probably have a bunch of that stuff now, so you can replicate the meal and it’ll cost you far less, or, you can spend close to what you did and add in a high dollar roast filet and have guests talking ’til Christmas. Either way, the meal isn’t going to get worse. You aren’t just going to decide to forgo the Turkey.

Worry as much as you like, that’s your right, but I think filling those holes is an easy thumbs up from everyone involved, and keep in mind I’m asking that some of those “holes” be considered empty when in reality guys like Paul Skenes are right there.

None of this is meant to convince you Nutting will do everything that’s needed to reach a World Series, it’s instead meant to look no further than 2024, a year in which this team should take a jump forward. He’ll spend that much, and I’m not aiming to make a point beyond than that.

2. What About Nick Gonzales?

Before I get into specifics about Nick, let me just say this first. Good players, or at least players who look like they COULD be good aren’t going to make this club. That’s where we are now. Not just this year, but next year too.

I say that because as of right now, prospects don’t just come up because they might have a higher ceiling. Prospects come up now when they look ready to get a shot AND there is a place for them to play at least enough to reasonably expect them to not go stale.

That’s Nick’s issue right now. He can’t be expected to get regular at bats with Peguero, Triolo, and Bae all taking regular turns at second base. You can take Bae out of that mix, but all that does is move him to CF, move Jack to RF and barely cracks the door at second base.

Is he better than Alika Williams? Well, not in the field, but at the plate, sure. Alika has had 16 at bats in the entire month of September. That right there is why a direct swap of Nick Gonzales for Alika Williams doesn’t work. You can’t have Nick up here sitting, taking 16 at bats for 20 days. Now toss in that the only reason Williams has gotten the playing time he has is his glove at SS and you could see that decrease.

Next year, Oneil Cruz will be in this mix and it’ll make the congestion even greater.

I don’t say this to illustrate Gonzales is a failed prospect, I say it because meritocracy tends to die at the alter of at bats, at least while guys like Gonzales have options.

This certainly doesn’t have to be the case next year, and Nick should in no way feel he can’t overtake Peguero in 2024. Just like he shouldn’t ignore that Termarr Johnson is breathing down his neck.

Look, as we sit here, Henry Davis shouldn’t consider his roster spot a lock for 2024. This is eventually where meritocracy heads for everyone with a strong farm.

Don’t be shocked to see some moves with some of these guys who simply can’t or won’t find a place.

Nick has done his part since being sent back to AAA, no doubt. I just ask you, where does he fit right now? Who’s at bats does he take. Again if the answer is Alika Williams, I’ll agree with you, he’s a better talent, but is 20-25 at bats in a month enough for a prospect like that? Should Triolo move aside for the more powerful Gonzales? Has Peggy not impressed you with his pop?

Cherry picking the roster for a player who may or may not be “worse” than a prospect is far too simplistic for trying to actually understand roster moves, especially at this stage.

3. The Inevitable Paul Skenes Bitch Fest

Long before the season starts in 2024, we’ll be treated to the excellent discourse surrounding Paul Skenes. Let’s go ahead and knock them on their ass one by one.

If he isn’t in the rotation on day one then they aren’t trying! – OK, but it seems to me a team that is “trying” doesn’t head into a fresh season counting on a starting pitcher they just drafted every fifth day. They maybe give him an opportunity to earn it, but you certainly don’t prepare for it, plan on it. Paul is a terrifically talented player, but he’s still a kid, a draft pick with a ton of room to reach his ceiling and for that matter a relatively high floor. If this were 2022, I might advise the same, giving him as much launch pad as possible before meaningful baseball came to town, but here we are, on the cusp of meaningful baseball, now he has to be ready, not brought here to train. He may well be, but he’d have to win that 5th spot in Spring to show me.

If Skenes isn’t good enough to start on day one, he was the wrong pick! – Well, it’s kinda more of the same isn’t it? Again, if this were 2022, he would have a much more feasible claim to starting out of the gate regardless of how assured the team would be he’s “ready”. Listen, this is, and will be the Pirates top pitching prospect until the day he graduates, but that in no way guarantees that happens this April. It certainly won’t make it the wrong pick. Dylan Crews being a good player won’t either. There’s room in this league for lots of players to be good, if Skenes is a successful starting pitcher for half a decade here, successful pick.

Super 2! Whaaaaaaa! – Yup, good chance Paul Skenes is a Super 2 candidate. First, lets worry about whether it matters before we get mad about it. I could make a pretty solid case that the Pirates would be foolish to not at least get the extra year, regardless of reaching Super 2, but again, it only matters if it looks like he’s better than one of the 5 guys this club brings in and pencils in. Mitch Keller, Johan Oviedo, 2 free agents, and a fifth spot to be “won” in my mind would be the idea scenario. Now if Skenes looks like he should win that spot, hey, I’ll be the first one yelling to get it done. But he’s got a ton of players with MLB experience to jump over already. Look, all I’m saying is the Pirates don’t need to grease the skids, a good competition won’t hurt anyone.

Long story short folks, let’s let the prospect guide us, not bloggers, podcasters, or radio hosts who will all take their crack at giving us our narrative driven marching orders.

Finally, this is a player that is not likely to pitch 200 innings in 2024, he’s much more likely to cap somewhere in the 150-170 range if everything goes incredibly well. I say this to also get in front of the inevitable complaints that he isn’t being allowed to destroy the league as we all know every first round pick does immediately with zero hiccups.

A big part of me hates being this guy. Feels like I can’t illustrate points like this without coming off as not thinking highly of the kid, but I promise you that’s not the case. I’m simply saying even a supremely talented 1:1 like Skenes doesn’t deserve the expectation many will heap on him, nor is it healthy for a team planning to finally rise from the depths of obscurity to count on it. My main intention is to ensure he’s not seen as a savior, even as at some point he very much so will need to wind up feeling that way if the ultimate prize is to be achieved.

4. Don’t Sweat over the Fringes

This roster isn’t filled with All-Stars, most aren’t, even the best teams have guys who fill roles and exist on the fringes of their roster.

For the Pirates, they have plenty of candidates to contribute they’ve discovered, but as we go through this over the next few seasons and this off season for that matter, try to understand the difference.

See, a guy like Joshua Palacios at best is a fringe player. He can hit, he can have incredible games, he can even start for a while if need be, but at 28 years old, it simply isn’t going to last long. Doesn’t mean he can’t have a role for the next few years, just means he likely isn’t something to worry about. In fact, he’s someone you should actively hope is rendered irrelevant. Doesn’t have to happen this year, or Spring, but he must at some point be nudged aside for the overall improvement of the roster.

Connor Joe is a guy like that. Probably a nice bench piece, can fill in a lot of ways to really help this club and give professional at bats when he does, but he too at some point needs pushed aside.

This type of guy, man they’ll be around even when the team is truly fighting for the top of the division. The last time this team was relevant Josh Harrison was one of these guys, a lack of true prospect depth prevented him from being dispatched. In fact the team leaned on him to start. To his credit he did a great job, better than his pedigree forecasted he should, but regardless, a healthy team never extends such a player, instead replaces them with another in a constant surging group of prospects.

Every player who puts on the black and gold deserves our hope, but at this stage you need to understand the difference between well placed hope and wishful thinking. It’s going to be a theme that we’ll watch time and again as this goes on. Hell, one of them might be one of the starting pitchers they sign this year, one could be Jason Delay.

Enjoy all the players, appreciate what they bring when they bring it, but understand the difference between a potential core piece and a role player. More importantly, lets hope the GM does, cause at the end of the day, that matters far more than what we think.

Believe in who you’d like to, hope for whatever makes you happy, but you’ll spend a lot less time fretting over nothing if you first at least understand the likelihood of who should or shouldn’t matter in the long run.

5. Can’t Develop

It’s been true, and it’ll remain true until such a time as they prove to us it isn’t.

Unfortunately, it’s also become a mantra uttered to describe things it doesn’t apply to.

Can’t develop doesn’t mean a prospect is called up and then struggles to assure a foothold in the first few weeks of their opportunity. Especially if said prospect was rather a long shot to begin with.

For instance, know what they’re saying in Cincinnati? Yup, can’t develop. Even as they have several rookies and youngsters actively performing. Elly De La Cruz has struggled after his initial start. Hunter Green hasn’t become the unhittable monster they expected from his first pitch.

They have a history of developing talent. The Pirates have a history of developing lesser talent into serviceable MLB players. It remains to be seen if they can make something more than that out of the higher end talent they’ve drafted.

If they fail to make a player out of Davis, Skenes, Johnson, Gonzales, those types, yeah, you can rightly point to development. Now, if they miss on guys like Hoy Park like we saw last year, I’m sorry, “can’t develop” doesn’t apply. That was a hope and prayer and that’s it.

When you say they can’t develop you immediately have to ignore guys like Oviedo even as you blame them for Ortiz. LOL it’s such a silly discourse. To truly understand this subject, you really have to start by understanding a concept as deep as Can They Develop is best viewed through the prism of history and pretending they get equal blame for those prior to this regime coming in is a waste of time.

At the end of the day, if this thing is successful you’ll easily be convinced this team was in fact wonderful at development, even if half the players weren’t in fact “developed”. Truth be told, it’s a reality that development has to happen to succeed, but for most its little more than a phrase they utter that ensures they sound smart. Really sit back and think about what would make you feel “the Pirates are great at development”. 5 star players brought up and matured? 10? Whatever the number, if you want to claim success, you’ll find your number. If you want to claim failure, you’ll find that too.

The team will either win or lose and the success of the development system will play a huge role either way. It’s one element of an overall franchise, a big one, but one that only succeeds when a significant amount of other factors do as well.

Some Solid Pitching, Timely Hits, Secure 3-2 Win For Pirates Over Yankees

9/17/23- By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on Twitter

Following a strong past several weeks where the Pirates won or split the series against 4 of their last 5 opponents, they were on the verge of not just losing a series versus the Yankees but being swept for the first time since July 14-16 (San Francisco Giants). It took some strong pitching and a lucky bounce to ensure the sweep would not occur.

It was a pitching duel early as Colin Selby retired 6 of 7 batters he faced – the lone Yankee reached via a walk in the first inning. Andre Jackson relieved him and was rolling along as well, retiring his first 8 hitters before allowing a walk in the 5th inning. He retired the next hitter to strand the runner.

Starting for New York, their big free agent signing this past offseason in southpaw Carlos Rodon. While injuries hindered him earlier in the season, he appeared strong and healthy today, touching 100 on his fastballs and getting ugly swinging-strikes on his off-speed stuff. 

Jared Triolo notched the first hit of the game off Rodon leading off the third inning and scored on a 2-out single by Liover Peguero. In the next inning, Miguel Andujar shot a fastball up and out of the zone 370 feet down the right field line, banging it off the foul pole, extending the Pirates lead to a 2-0 score.

Yankees answered back in the top of the 6th with a lead-off single by Estavan Florial for New York’s first hit of the day and it was followed by a DJ LeMaheiu double down the third base line to score Florial and cut the deficit in half. The Yankees tied it up in the 7th with a 1-out shot to center by Anthony Volpe. Ryan Borucki came on and got the last 2 outs to prevent any further damage.

Bottom of the 7th inning with Rodon still on the bump and still touching 100 with his heater, Triolo laced another double to left center and scored on a double by Jason Delay that took a surreptitious bounce off the third base bag and gave the Pirates a 3-2 lead off Rodon’s 103rd (and final) pitch of the day. 

Carmen Mlodzinski came in for the 8th inning to face the top of the Yankees order and put them down in order, including a strikeout against Aaron Judge.

David Bednar came on for the 9th inning, striking out Giancarlo Stanton on 3 pitches before rookie catcher Austin Wells shot a double to center, putting the tying run in scoring position with 1 out. Then, he struck out Volpe on a high 3-2 fastball and got Oswaldo Peraza to strikeout on a diving curve to secure the win.

News & Notes

  • The start of the game was delayed by 15 minutes due to rain.
  • This was Rodon’s fifth career start against the Pirates and only his second career loss in those appearances (previous loss came on 6/15/2015). He came in 3-1 with a 3.97 ERA before allowing 3 runs in 6.2 innings today.
  • Triolo had only two doubles total on the season over 136 previous at-bats before hitting two more today.
  • Alika Williams didn’t get anything going with his bat but had a strong game with his glove, notching 7 assists in the field on the day from shortstop – the most of any Pirates player this season.
  • After an off-day tomorrow, Pirates head on the road to face the Cubs in Chicago on Tuesday. First pitch scheduled for 7:40PM. Let’s Go Bucs!

Minor League News and Brews: Pirates Prospect Pitching Development

https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-xti32-14a87b6

In this episode Craig talks about the possible effect of Roansy and Ortiz’s changeup usage, Jared Jones pitching with the ABS vs. The Umpire Challenge and Anthony Solometo potentially wearing down as the season went on. 

Craig Toth covers the Pirates for Inside The Bucs Basement, and is a huge Pittsburgh Pirates Baseball Fan; especially when it comes to the Farm System. Listen. Subscribe. Share. We are “For Fans, By Fans & All Pirates Talk.” THE Pirates Fan Minor League Podcast found EVERYWHERE podcasts can be found and always at BucsInTheBasement.com!

Pirates Problems

https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-s3q72-14a4529

Craig and Chris begin by talking about some of the issues that exist at the end of this year and how they can possibly be fixed, before going on a tangent-similar to Ke’Bryan’s-about home plate umps; and, finish off the episode with Cutch’s season ending injury. 

Brought to you by ShopYinzz.com! Craig Toth covers the Pirates for Inside The Bucs Basement, and joins his buddy Chris at a 9-foot homemade oak bar to talk Pittsburgh Pirates Baseball. Listen. Subscribe. Share. We are “For Fans, By Fans & All Pirates Talk.” THE Pirates Fan Podcast found EVERYWHERE podcasts can be found and always at BucsInTheBasement.com!

Corbin, Abrams Lead Nationals Over Pirates 6-2 (66-78)

9/11/23- By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on Twitter

Good teams find ways to win and bad teams find ways to lose. The past few years of rebuilding, the Pirates have consistently been in the latter category. But this season, we’ve seen flashes of a team that may actually be playing meaningful fall games in the not-too-distant future. Tonight, for the most part, was not one of those days.

Andre Jackson made his 8th appearance with the Pirates and 5th start on the year and, while he was able to retire the first six batters he faced, he was giving up hard contact indicating it likely wouldn’t last.

After failing to turn a double play earlier in the 3rd inning, Jackson allowed a 2-out, 2-run home run to CJ Abrams off a high, hanging changeup. Bryan Reynolds answered in the bottom frame with a 2-out single up the middle driving in Jared Triolo to score the Pirates first run.

Jackson’s struggles continued in the 4th as a double by Keibert Ruiz and a single by Joey Meneses got the run right back. Nationals added on after Jackson walked Travis Blankenhorn and Ildemaro Vargas to load the bases before a soft grounder by Luis Garcia scored another.

Hunter Stratton relieved Jackson and pitched clean 5th (which included a nice defensive assist from Connor Joe) but allowed a solo moonshot home run from Dominic Smith into the center field bushes.

Cody Bolton took over in the 7th and gave up the 2nd home run of the game to Abrams – a line drive that just cleared the Clemente Wall and gave the Nationals a late 6-1 lead.

Miguel Andujar led off the bottom of the 7th with a double to right and Ji-hwan Bae doubled him home to get the Bucs another run but Patrick Corbin was in complete control the entire game, rolling for 6.2 innings of 5-hit, 2-run ball, walking just 1 batter while striking out 8. Jordan Weems took over in the 7th and pitched a clean 8th as well while Jose Ferrer finished up in the 9th.

In total, the Pirates hitters struck out 10 times with just 7 hits and 2 walks over the game. All this against a team coming in with one of the worst ERAs in the National League (4.99 – only above the Colorado Rockies at 5.70) and indicating that this team still has a long way to go before October means more than just watching the games on TV.

News & Notes

  • With his 3rd inning single, Reynolds stretched his hit streak to 12 games.
  • Jackson’s final line of 4 innings, 4 hits, 4 runs, 2 walks and just 1 strikeout. Nine batted balls against him had an exit velocity of 95+ MPH. 
  • Over his career vs the Pirates, Corbin is 6-3 with an ERA of 3.04 over 91.2 innings.
  • Today was the final scheduled Monday game of the season for the Pirates. Weather permitting, they will finish with a 10-7 record for Monday games this year.
  • Pirates will look to take game 2 tomorrow night as Bailey Falter goes for the Bucs against Washington’s Joan Adon. First pitch scheduled for 6:35PM. Let’s Go Bucs!