8-23-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter
Lots of roster questions this week, good stuff everyone. These things are as good as you make them.
Lets go.
Question 1
Do you think Jones and Solometo will be able to turn it around before the end of the year? They both have struggled in their new levels. – Aidan Whetstone
The first thing I’d say here is, don’t underestimate what workload or training does to pitchers, their effectiveness, sharpness, velocity, all of it. I’m not suggesting there are underlying issues here, just pointing it out.
Anthony Solometo for instance pitched 47.2 innings last year for Bradenton, and this year, he’s already pitched 97.1. Jared Jones on the other hand threw 66 in Bradenton back in 2021, 122 in Greensboro in 2022 and this year he’s at 97.2 for the season.
I point these out because for Solometo in particular, he showed up this year throwing the baseball harder than he ever has, the increased velocity really jumpstarted his progression through the system, and his national profile, but not only is he piling on more innings than he ever has, he’s doing it on the back of throwing harder than he ever has. That’s a whole lot of stress on an arm, and you’ll likely see them hold him back a bit to wrap 2023. At this point the numbers are less important than getting the work in so his baseline for innings appropriately increases. His results aren’t as good as they were in Greensboro, but his K%, BB% and WHIP are all in line with what he put up down there, so I tend to not make more of it than it warrants.
Jones, he has hit a bit of a road bump, but very recently has found some things. Much of his struggle stems from the Pirates insisting (rightly so) that he focus on throwing and improving a changeup. Let’s just say, it didn’t go well at first, but it developed and now that they’re allowing him to reintroduce it into his complete mix more, meaning they aren’t forcing him to throw it regardless of situation or hitter just to work on the pitch (this happens in the minors WAY more than most think) it’s really become a deceptive and effective pitch.
Jones is absolutely on the right track to finish strong, and if I had to guess, I’d say Solometo is on track to pad the inning count and feel good about the work he did this season.
Numbers are of course important, but understanding how the minor leagues work, and what teams look for are too. The Pirates care more about the shape and effectiveness of Jones’ changeup development than how many hits he gives up trying to craft it. And they won’t hold his numbers against him either, because they know full well if they let him just throw the 2 pitches he already had they’d be better. They also know he’d get shelled in the Bigs if he tries to be a starter with 2 offerings, even as they’re both plus pitches. Adding this pitch is important to his overall development and takes him from a back of the bullpen “closer” type to a viable starting pitching prospect.
Question 2
Who do you think starts opening day at CF? Jack, Bae? FA? – Casey
If I were forced to guess right now, Jack or Bae. As much as you hear about Jack’s “candy” arm, his defensive metrics paint a picture of at least a serviceable center fielder, and Bae is in just about the same boat with what I’d say at least visually comes with some more um, interesting routes.
I just don’t think this is where they’ll spend dollars this year and those two are interesting enough to at least claim you believe one of them could grab it.
Question 3
Will Cruz be in the lineup the weekend the Gregory’s pay a visit September 15-17? We want Cruz!! ( if he’s healthy ). – Shannon Gregory
Based on news that just dropped today Shannon, no, and I’d have to say this season at all isn’t looking great. Reportedly his rehab has “plateaued” after he experienced some foot pain in his running progressions and thus they’ve shut down that aspect of his rehab. Not ideal, but you just can’t risk anything short of 100% here.
Question 4
I sent Greg Brown a question. Haven’t heard anything back yet. “Is there a stat out there about how many runs the Pirates have scored this year with two outs” ? – Bryan Woolard
Well Bryan, the most recent numbers I can find on this are from 2019. I can get you RBIs with 2 outs, but for whatever reason, no outlet I look at will list runs in that scenario. Maybe Greg (or more accurately his team of statisticians) will be able to answer this one for you. Sorry.
Question 5
Give us your 2 September call-ups. What will the Pirates do? – Graves
Hi Graves! I think, and I’ve heard Triolo is very likely going to return and from there, I think we’ll see them use the extra spot on pitching. Relievers, starters, basically arms. I’d just pick one out of a hat, but you know the names. Bolton, Contreras, Priester, guys like that as they continue to drag this thing across the finish line from a pitching perspective.
Question 6
We all know hitting and hitting instruction is an issue with the team. I’m actually extremely worried about the drop in fastball velocity amongst starters. Is there a root cause or a possible cure within the organization or is it time to move on from the current philosophy? – Tristan Barney
There is no one answer, but I’ll list off all the things it could be. First is fatigue, and there are very few arms I’d give this one to, what I’m referring to are the guys who are like 40+ innings past their high water mark, and the Pirates are more careful than most as it comes to that so there aren’t many.
Next up is guys trying to last. To get deeper into games, most pitchers simply can’t go full tilt for 7 innings and maintain velocity, so they ramp back and reserve it for when they need to reach deep.
This one probably hits your point more directly and it’s implementing a 2-seam fastball, AKA sinker.
It sounds weird to say throwing a fastball hurts velocity, but hear me out. An effective 2-seam depending on your arm slot requires a completely different angle and arm action than a traditional 4-seam and the grip itself tends to hamper velocity a bit.
Very few pitchers can throw both an effective 2-seam and 4-seam, fewer still can master the 2-seam and not have it adversely effect their 4-seam.
This doesn’t mean everyone they try to outfit with a sinker is doomed or it’s wrong, it just means the pitch, and throwing the pitch effects people differently.
Roansy is a good example, he had a highly effective 4-seam when he got here and paired with his slider and changeup, a nice mix of pitches. Earlier this year teams started to realize he wasn’t hitting the zone with his slider, so they just stopped swinging at spin all together. It led to walks and rendered the fastball ineffective because no matter how well you throw one, if a batter can sit on it, eventually they’ll pound it.
To counter it and help him command something with velocity the Pirates helped him introduce a sinker. We’ve seen his velocity drop from there and now, every pitch he throws save the 4-seam is a bottom of the zone offering. The 2-seam and the slider are just about the same speed, and if he throws the 4-seam instead, it’s a different arm slot which essentially is tipping what he’s throwing. There are some studies out there and some real world examples of guys completely derailing themselves trying to learn the 2-seam and a lot of evidence it at the very least hurts the 4-seam.
Some guys can’t just add in this pitch, some guys can, doing either in season is hard. I expect them to either abandon the 2-seam this off season or work hard to make the 4-seam move more.
I’ll admit, Oscar Marin likes the sinker quite a bit, but I don’t get the impression that if you throw an effective 4-seam the team’s philosophy is forcing it on anyone. That said, they definitely need to develop more answers for struggling pitchers than to offer a pitch that potentially could damage everything else they do. The relationship between pitches in a mix is more important than what I feel the staff treats it with.
Hope that answers your question, I know I got long winded.
Question 7
Why are Hatch and Falter splitting starts? Do neither have the strength or constitution to start their own games? Can we see Keller, Oviedo, Ortiz, Hatch and Falter the rest of the way? – MZylinski
They just don’t see Hatch as a starter. So that one is easy. He’s a bullpen arm that they’ll use as an opener on occasion.
As to Falter, we’ve only seen them do it once and it was against an almost all right handed lineup, the theory being let’s have a righty get us into the game a bit before we have a lefty face them all. A lineup that he simply dominated for 6 innings mind you, which as you know would be considered a pretty damn good start, you know, if he started it. In this case it worked to perfection, opener did the job and by the time Falter entered the game he had a healthy safety net. (I still hate it but I’m old and grumpy)
Shelton said it himself the other day, they are going to be “creative” the rest of the season with the pitching staff and how they get the innings they need. For that reason, it’s very hard for me to say you’ll see any set of 5 or 6 for any stretch of time, let alone the rest of the season.
I’m not going to read much into it at this point personally.
Question 8
Last week we saw Mitch Keller get in a jam and then K the next three guys. He really trusted his stuff. Why doesn’t he trust his stuff more? He’s got electric stuff!! – Bobby Nacho
In that sequence he just cut it loose. He and Delay recounted after the game they originally planned to try for a groundball but Keller said “F it, let’s just strike them out”.
I’m sure bravado like that happens quite a bit, I’m equally sure it doesn’t work half the time.
Why doesn’t he do that all the time? Well, he’d last about 4 innings. Honestly that’s the reason. Against the Twins we saw him touching 98 on the gun a couple times in his last inning too, again, this is about lasting, not capability or belief, he was emptying the tank.
I actually think we’re beyond the “head case” narrative with Mitch at this point, now it’s more about helping him understand what’s working, and when. He’ll always have that explosiveness in his back pocket (during his prime anyway), but his major period of struggle this year which was really about 4 games was more about him personally falling in love with his cutter and abandoning more effective offerings.
As I understand it, Oscar Marin sat him down and made it clear he needed to listen to the catcher. In exchange, he gets to throw to Delay, because at least right now, he and Endy don’t see eye to eye. Not that they dislike each other, just that Keller is a guy that needs to really believe in his backstop. Earlier next season we’ll see them get back to having that pair work together and both will come to understand each other.
I’m just not all that concerned about Mitch. If anything, he has too many pitches, and they should pare them back a bit.
Question 9
Who are some controllable players that could be 40-man casualties this offseason? (Think Diego, Yajure, Bryse Wilson from last year) – PGH Commenter
Some of these are fairly logical and not controversial. And to a degree, it’ll depend on what they want to do in free agency.
Cody Bolton, Thomas Hatch, Yohan Ramirez, Vinny Capra, Alfonso Rivas, Cal Mitchell, Joshua Palacios, Canaan Smith-Njigba I could see any or all of them being moved on from.
Now, they have some 60-day guys who you could see them take a pass on, JT Brubaker it’s very unlikely he pitches in 2024 at least in a meaningful way, Jarlin Garcia has literally not been able to grip a baseball all year and it would be easy to just opt out of his second year contract, Tucupita Marcano will likely start the year on the IL and bluntly, where would he play?
The way I see it, they need about 4 spots for internal protections (it’s early I might change my mind) and I’d think 3-4 for free agents.
If I’m right about Brubaker, I’d expect them to try to retain him, they just might feel being that he won’t pitch they can afford to do so. That said, they didn’t do that with Kranick, although I’ll admit the roster wasn’t what it is today.
As we get closer to the offseason I’ll get into this more. Ethan Hullihen and Anthony Murphy have already done some good work on this if you want to look them up.
Question 10
In a perfect world, would an OF of Davis/Reynolds/Cruz be so bad? – Scott Roscovius
I mean, in a perfect world they’d have Trout, Judge and Buxton.
Smart or not, all the tea leaves are saying expect to see Davis in Right field next year. Reynolds of course will be in left and I believe you’ll see Jack and Bae in Center.
Nobody knows what Cruz will look like when he comes back, can he still play SS? If now, I guess we’ll talk, but for now, that’s the plan.
It’s funny, you hear a narrative get started and you just know no matter what happens it’ll be the narrative for the duration. The Pirates have had Oneil Cruz shag fly balls 4 times that have been publicized, and it’s never amounted to more than wanting to see if he could do it and to help him more effectively field mid range flies from SS.
Once people have decided a guy has to do something it’s all they’ll ever see. Just like how some can’t wrap their minds around Davis potentially not catching.
3 years from now you’ll still hear that, unless he wins a gold glove in right or Endy does behind the dish.
Bottom line, get 9 bats I want to see, then we’ll argue about where they play. Believe it or not, we’re closer to that then we’ve been since 2016.
Question 11
Do you think we have seen enough of the youth to make decision for 40 man for rule 5 draft? – Mr Derf
I’m actually pretty happy with how many we’ve seen Sir. I wish I’d seen more of Canaan Smith-Njigba, I just can’t shake that there’s something there and I really do think he could be a casualty.
For the most part though, yeah, I think they’ve done an effective job working through a bunch of names.
Now, I’ll throw out this caveat, without Cruz going on the IL, I doubt we have this much on some of these guys, so while it sucked the life out of this season to a degree, if it helped any aspect it was this one.
Question 12
Assuming Cutch comes back in a reduced role, how would you want DH covered in 2024 when Cutch isn’t playing? A second main guy already on the roster to DH? Or make it a revolving door for young guys to get at bats when they’re not in the field? – Nick Cammuso
LOL, someone listened to me struggle with this on the Pirates Fan Forum this week. I’d bring Cutch back and I’d use him for maybe 100 games or so. A fresh Cutch is a leader I want and place a ton of value in. The rest of the at bats I use to rest Endy but keep his bat and I use it for Hayes and his back and Reynolds and his um, paycheck.
Soon though, I think we’ll find out Davis, Cruz, Gonzales, someone like that is going to gravitate that way.
I think they have more bats that could matter here and on the way than positions to play and that just screams a rotating DH position.
Let’s take a trip through a theoretical lineup. Don’t get hung up on the order as much as the names and positions.
- Bae CF
- Reynolds LF
- Cutch DH
- Davis RF
- Endy C
- Hayes 3B
- Cruz SS
- Peguero 2B
- Free agent 1B
Now, that sits Jack, Gonzales, Triolo, Williams, and anyone else you plan to see next year come up or free agent signings.
Even if you don’t believe in all those guys, they’re all reasonable to expect to warrant at bats next year and I didn’t even bother with someone like Joe or Palacios. That DH spot is going to be the most valuable ground this side of the Mississippi.
This is the set of problems fans should be begging for, but instead we’ll probably fight each other online about it lol.
Question 13
Do you think Dauri Moreta will be with the Pirates next year? He started off this season strong, but has cratered in recent months. – Zach Williams
I think so Zach, but it’s not because he’s a nailed on member of the pen it’s because he has one unicorn pitch. That slider does something no other pitch in baseball does and that’s hard to let go of.
He has struggled, but the problem is the one he’s always had, fastball command. If they can dial him in, he’s a keeper, if they can’t he’ll follow Underwood and DeJong to the depths of obscurity.
That said, yes, I think they’ll keep him.
Question 14
Do you think the Pirates will entertain signing Skenes to a long term deal this offseason? – James Littleton
You and I are old James, so you know they won’t, but I love the thought. Problem is, I have no idea how you’d come to an agreeable number.
Both sides probably have his ceiling sky high, but only one side is going to see his value 10 years from now as 30+ Million. You can reasonably guess about his first 6-7 paychecks, 3 years of league minimum and then look at Strasberg’s arb figure projections, but beyond that, you’re buying free agency years and locking a guy into not reaching that land of milk and honey until he’s 31 for the first time.
My question would be more about his want to here. Of course it’s insurance against arm injury for him, but find me a 21 year old who doesn’t think they’re invincible.
I’d love for them to be open to it, I just think until he’s started putting some MLB resume on paper it’s a touch approach.
That said, thinking outside the box is something you have to do when you don’t have resources equal to all your competition. And yes folks (cause I know James knows this) the Pirates financial issues are deeper than Bob Nutting.
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