8-21-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter
Here we are, just about 6 weeks from the end of the 2023 campaign. There are 38 games remaining and to finish with a better record than last year they’d have to go 6-32, and since last year they finished 62-100, it of course also means they need those 6 wins to avoid a 100 loss season.
Many people when this is all said and done will point to how much better the record could have been if they had Oneil Cruz, but for me it’s really more of a missed opportunity. The Cruz injury hurt, but the JT Brubaker and Vince Velasquez injuries hurt worse.
Nobody was going to replace Cruz’ production, but at least they had a ton of qualified prospects to try to do so, on the mound, not so much.
This week the Pirates and Cardinals will square off, and this series will play a large role in which team finishes last in the NL Central.
1. Umpires Screwing Pirates?
Oh, they are. Make no mistake. And before you go off on me and claim I’m blaming all their struggles on Umpires, well, read the whole damn thing guys, more than one thing can be true at the same time.
The Pirates rank first in all of baseball for Umpires making incorrect calls that FAVOR them. They also rank 2nd in all of baseball for Umpires making incorrect calls that HURT them.
What!?!
Here’s the thing, just about all year long, you, me, pundits all over the place, radio hosts, podcast hosts, even some coaches and players have talked about the Pirates hitters lacking aggressiveness and folks, that’s really what these numbers tell me.
Yes, umpires should be right, but if you leave every decision up to them as regularly as the Pirates do, you’re likely to be hurt and helped just about as much as anything. The sad, sad part is, they don’t often enough attempt to help themselves. And make no mistake, that could lead to more K’s swinging as well as more balls in play resulting in outs but there is simply no way you rank at the top for both of those ends of the spectrum unless you are time and again putting the power in the hands of the blue.
There’s a fine line between chasing and protecting the plate, for most teams that is, the Pirates are much more apt to just sit there and watch life happen.
One day when there are robo umps and every ball and strike is precision accurate, a guy like Bryan Reynolds might hit .350 and walk 120 times. His eye is that good. But that’s not the world we’re living in, not yet.
Worse than that, some of these guys look petrified to chase anything, like ever. Hear me out here because I know that sounds dumb. When a good offense has a runner at 3rd with 1 out, they realize that the opposing pitcher probably wouldn’t mind walking you. They also realize that putting wood on ball probably means a run. They certainly realize that they have the ability to achieve that contact when someone is trying to get cute and hunt the edges.
They hunt the RBI. They hunt the production.
The Pirates almost always hunt the walk. Which sets up the double play. Which leads to Houdini escape after Houdini escape.
Look, there are times when the pitcher straight up isn’t going to give you anything you can do something with, but far too often the Pirates willingly stand there and take borderline until such a point as the pitcher can chase a K as opposed to just give up the walk.
Luck is a thing in baseball, but to a degree, you make your own luck too.
2. What to Do with Jack
There’s a reason that there are two stark opinions in the fan base on Jack Suwinski. He either sucks out loud or he’s one of the biggest power hitters in the National League on the cusp of really breaking out.
Well, everything in point number one could have been about Jack Suwinski because he’s by far the starkest example.
First, take a look at where Jack gets the best results in the zone. Exit velocity doesn’t directly translate to average or success, but it sure does show where he gets wood on the baseball.
Pretty much as you’d expect right? His best batting average zones look like this.
So that crazy high exit velocity up off the plate outside isn’t translating, but it does have potential if he starts actively trying to hit it more often. Especially in those RBI opportunities I was speaking to up there in point 1.
Now all that’s great, but where is he being pitched?
You’ve seen this. Down and away, down and in both off the plate, Jack is very unlikely to swing, but that up and outside quadrant, he gets pitched there, and he should look to attack it more. He makes really good contact up there, and it has the potential to change his trajectory at the plate.
He’s walked a ton simply because pitchers don’t want to pitch to him, he’s dangerous. But he needs to show them he’s dangerous just being around the zone too. That kind of an approach could lead to more in zone mistakes.
Problem number one though, Derek Shelton mentioned himself, Jack simply needs to be more aggressive protecting the zone up there. Because if he doesn’t he’s always going to have an acceptable OBA, maybe even OPS, but he’ll never truly be a counted on middle of the order bat without it.
Jack simply has to stop allowing the umpires to determine his fate.
Look, this stuff is publicly available, I’m not breaking new ground here, and understanding what’s being done to you isn’t a switch you flip that suddenly has you conquer it. This data is available from a full season of at bats, which is why, as frustrating as it is, you have to force your way through and make sure you see it. Now he either improves on it and pushes back on the league or this is what he is.
It’s clear though, the Pirates thought Jack was chasing too much last year, they had him work on it over the the offseason and he improved, in fact, became one of the very best in the league at Whiff Rate % (chasing outside the zone), now it’s time to help him understand not all chase is created equally, and sometimes a walk shouldn’t be the goal.
3. This Bullpen Game Stuff is Making Life Harder
The Pirates have 2 real starting pitchers who likely will be in the rotation mix next season on the roster right now. Mitch Keller and Johan Oviedo. Johan has never in his career exceeded 146.2 innings in a season. He’s at 140.1 as we speak.
To make this even worse, the team plans to give Keller and Oviedo extra rest a couple times through the rest of the season. Bailey Falter is there too, but it’s too early to understand where he is. We’ve seen good and bad, but at least he is an honest to god starter.
Now toss in that they’re using Osvaldo Bido with an opener, Andre Jackson who has promise and whatever crumbs aren’t dead from those two efforts to get through the next one.
The way they’ve approached it, is to yoyo a few relievers back and forth, play IL games and try to manifest a fresh bullpen even while completely abusing them.
It’s not good for now, and it’s not good for the future. How can you define roles for guys when in reality you’re just getting by? It’s like tossing a grenade in a lake and calling it fishing.
Here’s what I’d do.
First, I’d recall Luis Ortiz, he’s not perfect, but he is a starter and he’s already on the 40-man. Roansy is not improving his fastball but he too should be recalled or shut down all together if nothing is really getting better. Jackson Wolf is another option.
Jared Jones is probably ready to get a look, but the trick with him is he doesn’t have to be protected on the 40-man this year, Braxton Ashcraft who is currently in AA does and I think they should. Wouldn’t be the worst idea to give him a crack.
Point is, you can’t just keep doing this to the pitching staff, it’s both unprofessional and unproductive.
It’s also a repeat of the past 2 seasons. At some point if you want to sell tickets to baseball games from August 1st on, maybe have at least 4 starters? Maybe? I mean if the immediate future is so bright, shouldn’t there be 5 guys who can at least pretend to be MLB starters? Hell, we just got one for Rodolfo Castro, hard to believe we aren’t sitting on a couple like that.
If you want to be treated like an MLB franchise, at some point, start acting like one. This isn’t helping make any decisions for 2024.
I’ll end this bitch fest with this, if right now on August 21st you’re telling me we don’t have 5 starters we at least want to see pitch, don’t you dare come to Spring without at least 2 professional MLB level Starting pitchers signed. Not Non roster invites, real signings you expect to carry weight, and this time, make sure one isn’t just deadline fodder.
4. First Base & a Glut of Interesting Bats
We’ve seen what a poor defender at first base can do to a team’s defense, so I hardly want to minimize the importance of the position defensively.
That said, here’s where we are, free agent (of which there aren’t many worth worrying about) and rumors that a reunion with Carlos Santana is very realistic at age 3. I’d be fine with this, so long as they have a real plan in place for succession and they’ve addressed the Starting Rotation.
Now, on that plan for succession, here are some ideas, because even right now the Pirates have more bats than spots.
First, Malcom Nunez could probably work his way into it next year, but reality dictates he’ll again not be protected in the Rule 5 draft, so that probably tells you where he is.
Mason Martin hasn’t managed to move beyond AA this year.
Nick Gonzales is a man with no place to play potentially. Think about it for a minute, Bae, Peguero, Triolo, Williams, all right there, followed quickly by Dariel Lopez, Tsung-Che Cheng and even Andres Alvarez has shown some really good things. Oh, there’s this Termarr guy too. His bat might play, and it might just play with some pop. What about giving him a first baseman’s mitt?
I mention him specifically because none of the others I named really have the power profile I’m looking for over there.
The next idea I have might be nuts, but Jack Suwinski. In fact if he is a platoon player, maybe Nick is too, that might be perfect. Jack is ok in the outfield, but the arm is less than you’d like. Interesting to see what they do here.
One thing I don’t think we’ll see though, Henry Davis there. Zero team interest on this front, for much of the same reason they won’t consider Cruz.
Point of all of this, if you can fill this internally, great. One less thing you have to go pay for. Potentially one less player you waste or move because you’re going to waste them.
I suggest Jack because I really want to see more Bae out there and as it increasingly looks like he could be a platoon player, why not try to make him half an answer at a position of need?
This all might be crap, but this team needs to think outside the box and can’t afford to just toss talent aside or have it languish because of position.
5. What’s the Disconnect from AAA to MLB?
Let me start here, the major league coaching staff isn’t well equipped to onboard this many kids at one time. If I hadn’t watched it happen for the past couple years too, I might be able to be convinced that this is the real issue here.
All of the things the prospects do at the lower levels, all of them from FCL on up, get their hitting plans from Andy Haines, and pitching plans from Oscar Marin.
They aren’t individually adjusting mechanics for all of them of course, but the over all philosophies, the overriding ethos, yup, those two lay it out. John Baker oversees the implementation from there.
Now, here’s the thing, and let’s start with the hitting. What Andy Haines wants, is absolutely being taught, practiced and executed at the minor league level. All of it. The patience, the walks, the waiting for “your pitch, in your zone” every bit of it is Haines doctrine, and every bit of it is done.
Thing is, Haines system works great down there, with pitchers who can’t paint corners 90% of the time, guys who will make mistakes, opponents who don’t have detailed reports and heat maps.
So when you look at what’s really happening, it’s taking a real issue like MLB pitching is better than AAA pitching, and multiplying it by teaching guys to lean on a skill set that won’t help them when they get where they’re going. Then once they do struggle, the only answer is more of the same.
On the pitching side, it’s less so an issue believe it or not. Again, all the same stuff is preached. Fill the zone, trust your stuff, play off the fastball and if you don’t have a sublime 4seam fastball, OK we’ll get you throwing the 2seam.
Again, that works fine for many on the way here, but once they arrive, many are punched in the face with reality. That cute little cutter you threw for outs for 2 straight years, yeah, that’s cannon fodder up here. That slider you finish middle down, will finish in the right field bleachers.
Essentially, they’re training guys to be really good AAA players, but they aren’t preparing them adequately for the realization some of that isn’t going to work as well up here.
I’m running out of ways to say this coaching staff needs to experience turnover this off season, and they must develop a better on boarding concept.
Guys should arrive here very familiar with what an MLB scouting report looks like. They should come up here understanding at the very least the things they’ll be asked to do, what constitutes success, and I base this last one on real conversations with players who’ve been sent back down, they need to start telling these guys what exactly they want them to improve on that is a direct answer to becoming an MLB player.
I’m not kidding when I tell you many of them are simply left with “just keep getting better” only to go back down and dominate a level they’ve already mastered. (see Nick Gonzales since his demotion)
Now, I’m not saying there are no specifics, but many of them are about getting back in line with what the overriding philosophy wants, not what makes the individual player in particular become what’s necessary to break through and stick.
Biggest issue is, they honestly believe those philosophies ARE what’s best to break through and stick.
At some point this organization needs to come to a realization. Either you suck out loud at identifying talent, or you suck out loud at getting AAA talent to thrive in MLB. Either one will lead to a firing, pick one. I know which one I lean to because this many national baseball scouts aren’t wrong often enough to believe option A.
Steel City Pirates 