Heading out west for a series in Los Angeles, certainly a challenge for any team. Even when the Dodgers are “bad,” they’re still a good team. They still have a top 5 payroll in baseball, a number of starters in the All Star Game, multiple former MVPs and Cy Young winners. And that’s not to talk about their insane drafting and development as they consistently have a strong farm system despite frequently trading away pieces to strengthen the club. Let’s talk about the game.
After both sides went down in order in the first, the Pirates managed to get on the board in the second. Carlos Santana led off with a big double but ended up getting thrown out at home on a ground ball to shortstop by Nick Gonzales. But an infield single by Rodolfo Castro that was misplayed put men on the corners before Jared Triolo singled to right and put the Bucs in the lead.
Dodgers would add another run in the 2nd off back-to-back doubles by David Peralta and Jason Heyward. They then tacked on a third in the 4th inning when Miguel Vargas was hit by a pitch with two outs and then Miguel Rojas doubled to center, driving in the team’s third run of the night.
In the fifth inning, Keller get into trouble early with singles by Freddie Freeman and Will Smith but struck out Muncy and JD Martinez before another two out rally as Peralta singled to left, scoring Freeman, and Hayward bounced a ball off Santana’s glove at first base for an error and another run on the scoreboard.
Bucs managed to load the bases in the top of the 6th with the rookies leading the way. Henry Davis slapped a single to third that barely stayed fair. Nick Gonzales shot a single up the middle and Jared Triolo walked to load the bases when Austin Hedges hit a sacrifice fly to center, getting one run back for the good guys.
Mitch Keller gave up hard contact but was also missing a good number of bats, with 11 swings-and-misses and 7 strikeouts in 5 innings. He allowed 4 earned runs off 8 hits with a walk and hit by pitch.
Yerry de los Santos pitched two scoreless innings of relief, allowing just 1 hit and striking out 2. Dauri Moreta, who has been struggling lately after a strong start to the season, posted a 1-2-3 inning in the 8th.
News & Notes
Clayton Kershaw would have been scheduled to start today but was placed on the injured list earlier in the day with reported “left shoulder soreness.” Spot starter Michael Grove was able to provide 4 innings of 1-run ball for the club as a bullpen of Caleb Ferguson, Ryan Brasier, Brusdar Graterol, Daniel Hudson and Evan Phillips managed to hold it down the rest of the game.
We had a fun, nostalgic moment early in the game as a pair of kids whom Cutch had given his batting gloves after a game in 2015 were able to reunite with their favorite Pirate before the game.
We’re halfway through the 2023 season, it’s the day before Independence Day and it also happens to be time for the weekly 5 Pirates Thoughts at 5 here on IT double B.
So as we sit down with friends and family tomorrow and watch dad burn the outer layer of everything in the hopes of not having anything that even resembles the memory of having been rare at one time, lets also remember when we stop trying to find issues with each other, we generally get along.
This country at any given point in history is not what every single citizen wants or needs it to be, current times included, but there is one thing we have always done, improved. Sometimes slowly, sometimes after steps backward, but if you really look at the broad strokes the arrow is generally always pointed up.
Let’s talk some ball.
1. All Star Mitch Keller
Before I write anything here, let’s start with the beginning, this means a ton to Mitch, and he has been through just about everything on the way there.
He represents the only All Star selected to represent the Pirates, but this isn’t Warren Morris, or Ed Sprague, this is Mitch Keller.
Highly drafted, highly touted, incredibly needed top of the rotation pitcher who has gone through just about every stage of will he or won’t he make it, let alone make an All Star Game.
This isn’t a pity selection, instead a testament to one man’s ability to keep working at his craft and an organization that had nobody else to turn to giving him time and space to do so.
This selection is an organizational win wrapped up in an overall disappointing showing from overall selections.
Many wanted to see David Bednar, but he didn’t really get the chance to pitch for almost a month because of poor team performance.
Andrew McCutchen probably deserved a look, he’s certainly been good, but he’s also done it largely in the highly competitive DH spot. Very hard to see him as even top 3 there if you’re honest with yourself.
I even saw some suggest Jack Suwinski who’s OPS is 16th in the league for qualified batters and has hit 17 homeruns, but honestly, it’s a bit early to think that’s warranted.
The Pirates are not where they need to be, but seeing what they’ve done with a lot of hard work and dedication with Mitch, it should give us all a bit of faith they can do it with other players.
2. The Pirates are 39-44
Not bad for the considerable long stretches of non existent offense or countless injuries.
They’ve just gotten Bryan Reynolds back, Ji-man Choi will be returning, Colin Holderman just returned, Ke’Bryan Hayes will hopefully rest up the back and come back. Oneil Cruz will return too.
But this season is really about a youth movement.
Henry Davis, Carmen Mlodzinski, Cody Bolton, Nick Gonzales, Ji Hwan Bae, Jared Triolo, Luis Ortiz, Johan Oviedo, well, you know, and you don’t have to think they’ll all make it, they surely won’t, but you do have to recognize this team won’t be made up of much of what’s made this team bad over the time Cherington has been here.
Think about what’s left from 2020. Mitch Keller, Bryan Reynolds, Ke’Bryan Hayes and if you want to include him even though we can’t see him work this year, JT Brubaker. That’s it.
4 players remain from the once famously uttered sentence, “there are players here who we believe will be part of a winning club here”. Most of us didn’t believe it.
Most of us needed to see them sign someone, and even Hayes didn’t satisfy that need. Now that they’ve locked up Reynolds, and have engaged in talks with All Star starter Mitch Keller, it’s clear, they didn’t lie, they planned to mine what they could from the roster they inherited, and in 3 years, including one COVID shortened year, they have entirely remade this team.
We’re at stage one of onboarding kids in mass and it won’t be the last. Even as we speak, players like Bae, Castro, Contreras, and Marcano are all fighting through struggles, and unlike Keller, they have pressure from the minors to contend with.
This all comes down to how well this club works through this group. If they choose to move on from a guy like Bae, they better be right. Choose to stop trying to make Roansy a starter, well, you better be right.
Money will factor in of course, but the vast majority of what constitutes a winning club always needed to come from development.
This process has been painful to watch for many of you, I completely get it, but for a nerd like me, well, it’s been almost to the letter the process I thought we’d see play out.
Try to enjoy it, you’ll be one of the people who remembers when Henry Davis came up and started impacting the culture. You’ll remember when Mlodzinski was first used in the back of the pen to nail down that important win. Hell, you’ll remember the first time you actually felt a win was important again.
This process isn’t fun for everyone, but it is in fact a process that this team decided to take to get somewhere.
Arguments about other ways they could have gone are valid, but the fact is, they chose this one.
3. Next Up
I think we’ll see over the next few weeks, the PIrates call on even more youth. Liover Peguero has been on the 40-man for 2 seasons now, and it’s time to give him a crack. He’s hitting the cover off the ball and even while he possesses issues fielding he’s still a very talented and capable short stop.
Quinn Priester will likely get a chance soon, either due to injury or the League pushing back on Osvaldo Bido, which if you’ll recall, I told you as a starter would be 4-5 turns through the rotation to start happening. I still think Bido is a great bullpen option, but he won’t stop a prospect like Priester from making it.
I expect Endy Rodriguez literally any time now. He’s turned his season around offensively, and defensively he’s ahead of Henry Davis. This should afford the team opportunity to move on from Hedges or Delay.
I say this even as some youngsters are working right now on their own opportunity.
Once you start a youth movement, stopping it is nearly impossible and even with all these vets, you still find yourself wondering if you took the “right” young players. Half a season in 2023 for players like Delay, Oviedo, Contreras, Bae, Marcano, Castro, hell even Palacios who isn’t really a young prospect, is plenty to start making adjustments and swaps.
If that kid you’ve believed in is one of those cuts, don’t despair, they might well be back after some fine tuning.
Making picks is one thing. Identifying trade acquisitions is another. This though, the part where they become Major League baseball players, is the hardest thing to navigate in the game. For just about everyone involved.
4. Social Woes
Social media has allowed fans to connect in a way they never were capable before. Now on a pitch by pitch basis we can react with each other, live and die together with every outcome.
It’s also allowed for the easy foot in the door for bloggers and podcasters. Free promotion of content to a waiting an hungry audience. You don’t need backing, you don’t need anything more than a website and a following.
We’ve also seen this week that social media is unstable. Twitter showed us they can change the rules and render the entire system unusable. Facebook limits users to 5000 “friends”.
Listen, we aren’t close to the end of Social Media, I’m not that dense, but many like me are at least feeling it’s more important than it’s been to make sure we at least tell you, relying on Social media to tell you when we post a new piece is shaky.
At the bottom of the homepage on our site, you’ll see a button to subscribe. This will send you an email when something is posted, and that’s it. Won’t cost a thing, won’t bother you with promos. Nothing but a nudge that something new is up.
Even when social is working well, it’s not consistent. Facebook for instance will throttle the number of people who can read things we’ve posted without spending money on campaigns. Twitter is actively limiting the number of impressions you can make for a post.
This is a bit “inside baseball” I get it, but we do this for free, entirely. If you like it and don’t want to miss content, hey, that’s the best we got. If we let you down you won’t be out a penny and we have a free commenting system far away from the trolls you get tired of dealing with too!
OK, Shameless plug over.
5. Will the Pirates be Buyers or Sellers?
Maybe both?
No, I really mean it, I promise it’s not a cop out.
Let’s think of 2023 in an ideal world scenario. They bring in these vets, Garcia, Choi, Santana, Hedges, Cutch, Hill, Velasquez and sure, they hope they help the team, but more than anything, they hope as the year progresses, some of their prospects come up, get a chance and prove they deserve a shot to render some of them moveable.
That’s the dream, you hope it happens so much you aren’t begrudgingly moving veterans on for prospects, but instead you’re moving them to make room, moving them for help in other areas that aren’t producing.
This year, you could see some movement.
Andrew McCutchen won’t move for really much of any reason. There won’t be a prospect hot enough to pull the trigger, and they have a side deal so vocalized by both sides this isn’t’ just going to crop up.
Rich Hill was signed for 8 million dollars, and almost assuredly the team planned to move him at the deadline. After all, Rich has been moved multiple times just like this. I’m sure Vince was the same, but he’s gone for good at this point.
So is JT Brubaker, and Rich is the one player who more than any other needs this team to perform to stay. If they’re out of it, you could see them make a move just like they did with Quintana. Before you say same old Pirates, it did net us Johan Oviedo who’s had a pretty good rookie campaign.
He’s going to be a tough call. Arguably the hardest.
Santana and Choi, well, they don’t have much pushing them aside. Pay attention to Jared Triolo and Connor Joe, those two can play the position but the bats need to at least keep pace with Santana and Choi if they’re in this race. If they aren’t the question becomes how much time has Choi had to showcase himself, and how much gas to people think Santana has.
It’s tough, they brought in Choi and Santana to play 1B but someone was supposed to step up and push them for playing time, that could partially be Endy, but they won’t know by the deadline.
I think we’ll see one go and the other finish the season out here. I’ll say this, Carlos isn’t playing like he wants to leave anything in the tank and he too has been very vocal he wants to stay.
The bullpen is mostly young, can’t see that.
For those of you thinking Bednar is in trouble, absolutely not. He isn’t getting moved, even if you come up with a great offer, or think it’s smart. He’s closer to extending than being moved, same with Keller.
You could see prospects moved. Maybe even a Bae, Marcano, Castro type.
Truth is, there could very much so be movement, but how much and what type, we’ll have to see. We’ll discuss it more as we get closer, but there aren’t any locks to go or whatever as we sit here.
The Pirates have been in a better place lately but struggled against their division foe as they dropped the final game of the homestand 6-3.
Facing Colin Rea, the Pirates appeared to be very aggressive at the plate, swinging early and often. Nick Gonzales took a first pitch cut-fastball yard with one on and no outs in the 2nd inning to get the scoring started.
Unfortunately, the offense stagnated after that as Rea set down the next eight Pirates batters in a row, keeping them off the bases and his pitch count low as he lasted 6.2 innings of 5 hit, 2 run ball, allowing just 1 walk while striking out 3.
Rich Hill was cruising early but ran into trouble in the third inning. Following a groundout, he hit Raimel Tapia with a pitch, walked Andruw Monasterio on 5 pitches and, after falling behind to William Contreras, served up an inside fastball that Contreras sent into the left field bleachers to give the team a 3-2 lead. This has been an often occurrence where Hill seems to get upset with himself over a mistake – either made by himself or a teammate – and isn’t able to buckle down and execute. That inning was the only issue that Hill faced on the day, posting 5 innings, 3 hits, 3 runs, 2 walks and striking out 8.
Milwaukee added to their lead in the 8th inning as Carmen Mlodzinski got two quick outs before a walk and single put men on the corners and Shelton opted to bring in lefty Ryan Borucki to face switch-hitting rookie Blake Perkins. Perkins grounded the ball back to Borucki, who rushed the play and errantly threw the ball away, allowing two runners to score.
Pittsburgh battled back in the bottom of the inning with Carlos Santana hitting a 2-out single to deep right before Josh Palacios doubled to center, driving in the run and cutting the deficit to two. Borucki stayed in the game in the 9th and promptly allowed a single, sacrifice bunt and RBI double to get the run back for the Brew Crew, ultimately sealing the final score.
Having been able to rest their top bullpen arms, the Brewers were able to use Hoby Milner, Elvis Peguero and Devin Williams to finish off the game and earn a series victory for the Brewers, who moved to 45-39 on the season in a tie for NL Central lead with the Cincinnati Reds.
News & Notes
The Brewers entered the day last in MLB v. LHP in batting average (.215), slugging (.345), OPS (.642) and 28th in OBP (.297).
Andrew McCutchen saw his on-base streak end at 20 games as he went 0-4 on the day.
Despite his strikeout numbers, Hill struggled with control as only 62 of his 102 pitches landed for strikes.
Angel Perdomo pitched 1.2 innings, retiring the first 5 batters he faced before allowing a single in the 7th. He hasn’t allowed an earned run in 4 straight games, sporting a 2.77 ERA. Mlodzinski also hasn’t allowed an earned run in his last 4 outings either and has a 2.89 ERA.
Dauri Moreta, who had 9 runs over his last 5 appearances, managed to get 2 outs without allowing a run to score.
The Pirates head out west tomorrow as they face the Dodgers in Los Angeles. First pitch is set for 10:10PM. Lets Go Bucs!
The Pirates don’t feel the way they did just a week ago. They’re scoring runs. They’re scoring runs when they get down early. They’re scoring runs late in games to make things uncomfortable.
They’ve done it against perceived good pitchers, and bad alike.
None more so than Carlos Santana, who went from doing almost nothing to swatting over .450 in his past week.
The Brewers are in bullpen hell, Pirates fans should understand that. They didn’t have their closer or other key components available and were asking Freddy Peralta who hasn’t pitched more than 6 innings all year to give them more than he has shown capable.
Really, again, should sound awful familiar.
The Pirates countered with Osvaldo Bido, and the voodoo he’d been using was ineffective against the Crew who knocked him out after only 3.1 innings, surrendering 4 runs.
The Brewers would take advantage and tack on 3 more runs, seemingly putting this one away and ultimately, saving their pen and getting a win without their best options available.
Henry Davis had 3 opportunities to impact this game at the plate last night and didn’t manage to come through. He also made a rather large error in RF. His night could easily have been the story but the Pirates didn’t allow it.
Nick Gonzales hasn’t been as consistent as Davis, he too made a fielding mistake last night, but man can he impact a baseball. You can see how that opposite field power is going to serve him well.
Bryan Reynolds & Ji-man Choi could both be back this weekend from the IL. You have to imagine Bae, Castro, Marcano are all possibilities to go. Marcano and Bae came through with important hits last night.
Jack Suwinski had a good night, going 2 for 3 with a walk. One of the hits was against a lefty.
Dauri Moreta still looks shaky. The slider looks great, but hitters are clearly trying to just wait for the heater. It’s a problem the Pirates knew was there all year, even while he was killing it. It’s why he’s gone dormant for stretches this year, trying to side bullpen the problem away. That slider is a unicorn pitch in this league, so he’s certainly worth figuring out.
7-1-23 – By Corey Shrader – @CoreyShrader on Twitter
National League Central Standings
Win
Loss
Cincinnati Reds
44
38
🔼
Milwaukee Brewers
43
39
⬇️
Pittsburgh Pirates
39
42
⏫
Chicago Cubs
38
42
⬆️
St. Louis Cardinals
33
47
⏬
June was yet another confounding month in the NL Central. Three months of the season in the books and the only real constant is that Milwaukee is the most consistently performing team in the division. From the outset we knew the division was going to be kind of wild, but so far it is even wilder than I imagined. Very early season Pittsburgh was the story of the National League. Now that we have seen June come and go, there is a new “it” team out of the Central. Let’s begin there, shall we?
Cincinnati Reds
It is time to confront the fact that Cinicinnati might be arriving earlier than anticipated. While we have seen first hand what a fun month-long hot streak looks like, there is a lot of reason to believe that the Reds stretch might be a little more sustainable than the early swoon for the Pirates. That being said, it is an extremely young group. Things can certainly get rocky in a hurry, but you cannot deny this young core looks pretty special. The bad news is that more help is also very close at hand.
Lineup
In May we touched on a lot of these same names, but we have to talk about many of them again;
Matt McLain – While his very large teammate has been getting most of the press, McLain has been equally as impressive in his rookie campaign. In June McLain posted an impressive .384 wOBA, 136 wRC+ with 4 homers, 4 triples, 7 doubles, 18 runs, 14 RBI, and 3 steals. He has a strong approach with below league average whiff and chase rates so his across the board production appears to be sustainable.
Spencer Steer – Much like McLain, Steer had an across the board offensive impact in June. In fact they are incredibly similar offensive skill sets. 5 doubles, 4 homers, 11 runs, 18 RBI, 7 steals accompanied by a .376 wOBA and a 130 wRC+. Stop me when you’ve heard this before, but his approach features below average whiff and chase rates. While I am not sure either McLain or Steer profile as star level talents, these are above average “glue guys” that should be tremendous assets to fill in a quality lineup.
Elly De la Cruz – The big fella. Outside of Ohtani, Acuna Jr, Carroll, Franco, Jrod, & Tatis Jr, there may not be a more tantalizing player in the major leagues right now. Each plate appearance and time he gets on base holds the possibility for something jaw-dropping to happen. June has seen Elly DLC post 5 doubles, 3 triples, 3 homers, 19 runs, 10 RBI, 8 steals on the back of a .379 wOBA & 133 wRC+. On top of the production he is the fastest man in baseball (30.7 ft/sec) and top end max exit velocity (116.6). His average EVs are just above league average and it is likely a function of a low-ish barrel rate (5.9%). The biggest warts are a very low launch angle (1.3 degrees), a very high ground ball rate (62.7%), and some approach concerns (above league average chase & whiff rates). His incredible speed is likely allowing him to bypass these “issues” and should continue to bolster him as he adjusts to the majors. Just an awe-inspiring talent.
Will Benson – Benson broke camp with the Reds and did not perform. He is back now and excelling in a strong side platoon role. As a prospect with Cleveland Benson always had obvious freakish athletic ability and tools, he appears to be filling out his game in the Queen City. This month in 66 PAs against right handed pitching Benson has produced like gangbusters; 3 homers, 14 BB/12 Ks, a .444 wOBA, & .175 wRC+. While I do not think he is quite this good, he looks like a good contributor and will be worth watching as a developmental project.
T.J. Friedl/Jake Fraley – In the same vein as Benson these two had an impressive month. Neither is a standout player on their own, but they both appear to be productive part time players and a big part of the Reds June success story.
Pitching
Andrew Abbott – After bullying AA & AAA Abbott got the call in June. His first 5 career Major League starts have been much the same. In 29.2 IP Abbott is 4-0 with a 1.21 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 30 K/12 BB, a .155 BA against, and a .229 wOBA against. This is an incredible debut line, but it is buoyed by a .186 BABIP, so it is a little unreasonable to just assume a continued baseline of dominance like this. His main offerings aren’t posting any big whiff numbers and his BB rate is above MLB average – but what a fantastic debut nonetheless.
Hunter Greene – 3 starts and 17.1 IP saw Greene find 1 win with 20K/9BB. A great bounce back for Greene after a lackluster May. Greene turned in a good June prior to being shut down with a hip injury that will keep him sidelined until August.
Fernando Cruz/Lucas Sims – Cruz & Sims emerged as strong compliments to stud closer Alexis Diaz. Sims dropped 7 holds and a 37% K%, Cruz with a strong 30.2% K% and has continued to out-pitch his surface stats.
Minor League Check In
Connor Phillips – Phillips poleaxed AA all season (15.45 k/9 & 3.76 bb/9, 3.34 ERA & 1.21 WHIP) and got the call up to AAA. As long as he continues to perform, he should be making his debut in the Majors sometime this year.
Noelvi Marte – At the risk of sounding like a broken record, Marte found himself moving from AA to AAA recently. Marte reclaimed his “elite” prospect status in 2023, bashing around AA pitching before suffering a minor injury. Upon his return to action in late June, the Reds decided to promote him to AAA. I don’t know where they plan to play all of these guys, but Marte is yet another big time bat that should find his way to the big club as soon as the organization feels he is ready.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand – CES is just waiting in the wings at AAA. June saw him cut his K% and increase his BB% dramatically. While I still think he will be more of a traditional slugger profile in the major leagues, for all intents and purposes, he is ready for his turn as soon as Cincinnati picks up the phone.
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers had a consistent month of baseball, all things considered. At the moment they are a sort of boring steady presence at the top of the division.
Lineup
Joey Wiemer – Wiemer had a pretty electric month of June blasting 6 homers, 6 extra base hits, swiping 2 bases, with a .379wOBA & 139 wRC+. The Joey Wiemer experience will likely be a lot like the Tyler O’Neill experience. Both guys are power/speed monsters with whiff issues. Wiemer plays a very strong defensive OF, so the Brewers will be inclined to let him play and continue to work on refining the approach.
Christian Yelich – The “Yelich is still a good player” train keeps on rolling. He hits well, runs well, produces well. The narrative that he isn’t very good any more because he can’t replicate his insane 2018-19 peak is one that you don’t need to pay attention to, it’s wrong.
Rowdy Tellez – Rowdy was an excellent slugger in 2022. He has been equally awful in 2023. In the month of June he was the worst qualified hitter by fWAR in the National League. Can’t claim to know what the cause is, but he does not look like a MLB regular at this point.
Pitching
Colin Rea – Rea is mostly a middling journeyman type, but he was Milwaukee’s best pitcher in June. He profiles as a boring, back-end, innings eater type going forward. His inclusion here is more a function of how “off” the rest of the staff has been than how good Rea has been.
Corbin Burnes/Freddy Peralta – These two will need to perform much better for the Brewers to get anywhere beyond the NL Central. The results have been underwhelming, but not a total trainwreck. Burnes peripheral numbers suggest he is pitching better than his surface stats show, but Freddy is essentially meeting his. I don’t want to rule out a sudden turn around for either, but it has been a pretty disappointing year for this duo of talented starters.
Brandon Woodruff – Still working his way back from injury, unsure timetable for return but has been completing bullpen sessions this month with success.
Joel Payamps – Payamps has seen his role shift towards a key set-up role being featured in the 7th or 8th most times this month. He generates weak contact and has a pretty nasty slider & should continue to serve as a late game stopper ahead of Devin Williams.
Minor League Check In
Tyler Black – Black was a player we highlighted in April, after a little slower May he is making his case for attention again. On the season at AA Black has put up 10 homers/40 steals on the back of a terrific approach (18.8/21.5 BB%/K%). In June alone Black boasts a .461 wOBA & a 180 wRC+. I see little reason that he doesn’t see AAA soon. He might just be one of the most underrated prospects in the game.
Jacob Misiorowski – In June Misiorowski got bumped up to A+. He has continued flashing the big time strikeout stuff (and his control issues). He’s got an incredible ceiling along with pretty significant risk unless the control gets cleaned up. A very compelling pitcher for the Crew.
Jackson Chourio – Coming into the year Chourio had a lot of “best prospect in baseball” buzz. He hasn’t quite met those expectations yet, but we still should acknowledge that he is incredibly young for AA. His production to date 10 HR/21 steals, .325 wOBA, 94 wRC+ aren’t exactly jumping off the page, but for a 19 year old (the only teenager in all of AA) that has been hyper-aggressively moved, it is still an impressive feat. A strong second half and his stock will absolutely explode again.
Chicago Cubs
Chicago posted a good record this month going 14-11. Right now they are the team most jockeying with the Bucs for position, both teams just behind the leaders.
Lineup
Dansby Swanson – When June began I predicted Swanson was due to start producing, it appears that I was not quite right, but he did have a solid month: 9 runs, 4 homers, 12 RBI, .261/.330/.409, and a .326 wOBA/104 wRC+. All things considered, Swanson has been one of the best players in the NL by fWAR, tied for 6th best at 3.0. This is greatly propped up by his excellent defense. He would be my All Star Game starter at shortstop. I anticipate the bat to start showing more in the 2nd half too based on his underlying numbers. Just a very good ballplayer.
Nico Hoerner/Nick Madrigal – [insert pointing Spider Man meme here] These two are terrific athletes, have strong hit tools, don’t whiff, run well, play good defense. They are not going to be massive run producers but boy are they fun if you like throwback type of players. In June Madrigal has been sneakily good posting a .374 wOBA and 137 wRC+. It will be interesting to see how his role pans out going forward.
Christopher Morel – Last month we mentioned Morel’s downside that manifests itself in the way of tons of strikeouts. Well, in June Morel might just have taken a step toward addressing that. Morel cut his K% from 38.7% to 21.3% and increased his BB% from 5.3% to 10%. The funny part of this development is that his overall production slowed this month. I am inclined to believe that the important part to focus upon is that if this change sticks, Morel has a chance to be a pretty special player for the Cubbies. Definitely a player to watch.
Pitching
Bullpen – Just went ahead and said “bullpen” because,man, have Alzolay, Leiter, Merryweather, Fulmer, Rucker, Wesneski been good in June. As a unit the Cubbies pen has posted a 1.4 fWAR in just 68 IP this month. A terrific effort for them.
Marcus Stroman – Stroman continues his strong 2023 season with a June line of 29IP, 2.17 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 19/7 K/BB, and a 4-1 W/L. Due to his extreme groundball style Stroman almost always outperforms his peripherals & that appears to be going the same for this year. While he is not an ace, he is a very good rotation piece.
Kyle Hendricks – Kyle Hendricks is back at it, folks. In classic Hendricks fashion to boot. Surrendering poor contact quality & suppressing hard contact at league leading levels, and exhibiting pinpoint control. Nothing flashy, but very effective and absolutely chews quality innings.
Minor League Check In
Alexander Canario – Canario, one of the Cubbies top young hitting prospects, just made his 2023 debut with an affiliate this month. Not quite enough PAs to really glean anything, but it is worth following his performance as he is an exciting power/speed prospect who made it all the way to AAA in 2022.
Cade Horton – The 7th overall pick in the 2022 entry draft, Horton is living up to the hype in the lower minors. 34IP, 39.6%/8.2% K/BB, 3.15 ERA, 2.83 FIP, he is not really getting a challenge at A+. He is ready for the next level and should soon get that call.
Jordan Wicks – 2021 1st round pick, Jordan Wicks is being slightly underrated right now. Performed well enough at AA to receive the promotion to AAA on 6/27/23. Wicks is a very well rounded starting pitcher and now that he joins Ben Brown at AAA and Horton on the precipice of reaching AA, the Cubs future’s looking closer and closer on the hill.
St. Louis Cardinals
The only NL Central team with a worse month of June than Pittsburgh, St Louis is still looking rudderless. While the season is only now at roughly the half-way point, things do not look great for the Cards. There are a few encouraging signs to touch on below, but the whole vibe is kind of off in 2023.
Lineup
Jordan Walker – Back in the majors, Walker is having a very impressive second run for the Red Birds. Walker is posting his trademark big time exit velocities and showing an improved approach. Fans should get used to seeing Walker hit rockets, it appears that he will be doing so in the NL Central for a long time to come.
Brendan Donovan – Donovan is a bit of a different player in 2023. Spring training showed him flashing more power and while it isn’t huge, it is more present. He is hitting the ball harder more often and has increased his launch angle enough to see him getting to his power more often. He has a strong plate approach and makes good swing decisions, so the added power makes him a more complete and more dangerous player. Not a star level talent, but looks like a trademark Cardinal.
Dylan Carlson – After a disappointing 2022 season, Carlson might have begun to find something this June. Carlson led the Cardinals in wOBA, wRC+ this month. Now, he did this as a part time player and that can be either deceiving or predictive. Is his success due to being protected by less PAs or is his success a predictor of future good play? Will be worth watching in July.
Pitching
Jordan Hicks – Not sure there is a more absurd pitch to observe in all of baseball than Hicks’ sinker or Jhoan Duran’s “splinker.” How a hitter is supposed to even make contact with either offering is almost hard to comprehend. Hicks has always possessed tantalizing stuff, but unfortunately he has also been plagued by injury too. Right now he is healthy and producing great relief work for St. Louis. If they get both Hicks & Helsley in the bullpen at the same time their back end is going to be as fearsome as it gets.
Jordan Montgomery – What a rollercoaster season for JorMont so far. The June iteration of JorMont has been great. 7th most valuable starter in the NL by fWAR for the month & most valuable in the NL Central finishing ahead of Marcus Stroman by 0.2 fWAR. 31.2 IP with a 3-1 record, 1.71 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 30/6 K/BB, and peripherals that mostly back it up. His June dominance has him in the top 10 of fWAR among all NL starters on the season now & I’d bet on him carrying on a strong rest of 2023.
Adam Wainwright – It looks like Father Time has finally caught up to Waino. Up to this point in his career he was able to out-pitch his peripherals due to an ability to avoid hard contact and suppress barrel rates. In his age 41 season, this skill appears to no longer be available to him. While we cannot say it’s all over yet, he has a long track record, it is looking like the sand in the hourglass is running out.
Minor League Check In
Tink Hence – Tink missed some time with a chest injury, but has been back to a near normal workload in June. He is only at A+ level, but it is not unreasonable to see him promoted to AA by the end of the season. Hence had one very bad outing in June but still put up a great line flashing plus plus control (3.8% BB).
Ivan Herrera – We touched on Herrera in May & he has continued his strong play at AAA. Contreras has been struggling in the majors, so it stands to reason we might see Herrera get a real crack at the role soon. June saw him go: 14%/15.8% BB/K, .957 OPS, .414 wOBA, 137 wRC+ at AAA. Not sure they will keep him down a whole lot longer.
Michael McGreevy – With Wainwright struggling hard and Liberatore also having a tough go, McGreevy could be the next man up. It does not appear that McGreevy is a front end type of arm, he has just had two dominant starts at AAA where he flashed nice K stuff. I think it won’t be long before we see the former 1st round pick in the major leagues.
June was not kind to the Pirates, however, the division is still pretty much wide open. As we saw first hand, one hot month can change a lot. Just as much as one cold month. I think Pittsburgh has a fair shot to remain in the mix here and better days are ahead. It will be interesting to check-in on this group of teams again next month. See you then!
Craig is joined by Senior Analyst, Joe Doyle (@JoeDoyleMiLB) of the Future Stars Series to discuss the Pirates Pick at 1:1, past success in selecting High School Arms, options at this position and the talent level at #1 through #5. #LetsGoBucs #30MinutesOfBucs #MiLBNewsAndBrews
Craig Toth covers the Pirates for Inside The Bucs Basement, and is a huge Pittsburgh Pirates Baseball Fan; especially when it comes to the Farm System. Listen. Subscribe. Share. We are “For Fans, By Fans & All Pirates Talk.” THE Pirates Fan Minor League Podcast found EVERYWHERE podcasts can be found and always at BucsInTheBasement.com!
I love breaking long seasons into segments. For me, it’s super healthy to sit back half way through the campaign, look everything over away from the day to day ups and downs of baseball and hone in on the important stuff.
It’s so easy to get lost in the havoc of everything and forget that all those small things are part of the larger story being written.
For instance, for Thursday’s contest against the Padres, did you know, or more accurately, did you notice the Bucs only had 14 players from the Opening Day 26-man active?
There have been injuries, poor performances, debuts, winning streaks, losing streaks (I think you noticed this part), but in all of that, sometimes it’s wise to take a 10,000 foot view.
1. In Certain Areas, the Depth was a Mirage
There were injuries, of course. Every team deals with them, every team has them. I’m certainly not going to glaze over them on the way to making this larger point, but the reason you want depth in the first place isn’t because you hope there are injuries and assume the depth will be just as good. You have depth because injuries are unavoidable, so in a way, baseball depth needs to at least to a certain degree, have experienced depth on top of hungry youngsters.
The Middle infield glut as we’ve all come to call it, probably would more accurately be called the second base glut. Even right now, the Pirates are playing Nick Gonzales there and for what it’s worth, he’s been good there, certainly has a better arm than Marcano, even if his range is more narrow, but he’s sure handed and makes the plays he should.
Even so, he’s not a short stop, not really. Neither is anyone else they’ve had to force into service.
It’s so stark the Pirates traded Tampa forAlika Williams, a completely glove first short stop, who if he makes the league will absolutely be due to his defense.
I think the starting pitching depth, arguably more tested than any other area, has largely held up. They’ve had hiccups of course, but over the long haul, they’ve held it down. If you told me at the beginning of the season Vince, Brubaker, Burrows would all have Tommy John and Roansy would falter, I can’t imagine I’d have thought they’d right this second have 4 guys in the rotation I really feel good about and 1 I’m overjoyed with how much better he looks here than he ever did in AAA.
The outfield with all those guys to run through. Kinda dried up quick didn’t it? We went from crying about Travis Swaggerty not making the cut to forgetting he exists. He’s had a hard time this year, but what is, is.
CSN, Cal Mitchell, Bae, Marcano, none of them really grabbed anything. They were all really passed by Josh Palacios a MiLB Rule 5 pick and Henry Davis. Two guys we didn’t really even have in this mix and Henry for now is a lock there.
The bullpen depth wasn’t as strong as I thought it would be, but I was also surprised to see how quickly Ben Cherington pulled the plug on guys like DeJong and Underwood. I wonder if he too was fooled by what I saw as depth. And don’t get me wrong, DeJong and Underwood weren’t good, but what the bullpen has become right now, a call to the pen right now for anyone not named David Bednar is scary, all I’m saying is I’m not sure it would have this fully devolved if he has been a bit more patient. The bullpen isn’t a place to fill with rookies and hope for success.
2. The Youth Movement is Here
I wondered how we’d see the mass of kids getting close get worked in with all the veterans they signed, brought in or were already here. Teams don’t tend to do this willingly so I assumed some would get their shot from injury, a couple from guys getting a shot performing poorly, I had no idea it would happen in such a congested fashion.
Everything has been piled together here with this thing and it’s going to keep going. Peguero will get a shot, Endy, Priester, Selby, honestly, I’m being conservative leaving it here.
Over the next few days, weeks, we’ll see some veterans and regulars return to the lineup and probably say goodbye to a few guys we’d been hoping all year would latch on, at least for now.
Here’s the thing about youth movements, once you start them, and they consist of number one picks and highly ranked prospects, it’s really hard to turn back.
It’s not 100% we’ve called up these guys and they’ll never go back, but it sure as hell is clear as day, some of them simply are here to stay.
Until it happened, I wasn’t sure if it would be in August/September or maybe if they’d just show up to Spring ready to have them fight it out. Now we know, the vast majority of this season will be driven by the kids.
3. They Intend to Maintain a Core
This team is, under this MLB system, never going to be a big spender, but the Reynolds extension shows us they are interested in building and paying strategically members of what they see as the Core.
Before this, all we had to go on was Hayes, and bluntly, his contract is and will remain such a bargain, it could be argued any team in the league would sign it, regardless of their intensions. Yes, even with his bat being what it is.
Now, we don’t know if that’s 6 guys, 8 guys, I’m quite sure it won’t look like the Braves, but we know the plan isn’t to just try to win with all players on entry level deals or arbitration, they plan to have some pieces locked in.
Again, because money and the Pirates always spawn Nutting commentary, rightly so, I’ve always said, they will spend, I just don’t see them maintaining whatever the peak of that payroll figure looks like for a decade. Being a team that is always going to a degree have to get their best talents from the draft and international boards as opposed to free agency, eventually special talents will push expensive players aside allowing for a payroll down turn and ultimately the ability to trade the veteran asset for more young talent. Sound familiar? It should, if executed nearly perfectly it’s the Rays system.
We’re nowhere near knowing what their perceived cap is on payroll. So point stands, for now the takeaway is, they don’t immediately map out a guy’s career and assume the end of team control is the end of their Pirates career.
4. If They Don’t Add From Outside, I Don’t See Enough
There are more kids yet to come up, but as I look at the landscape, who’s here, who won’t be, who might be, I can’t help feeling they’re short a big bat, a veteran lefty starter and some bullpen help.
I could see it developing, but I’m not sure they can seriously contend in 24 or 25 as I think they’d like to unless something comes from outside. It’s probably best that they keep their minds open too. Rather than shopping for a big 1B bat that probably doesn’t’ exist on the FA market, maybe use other assets over there and find that bat elsewhere. I just think they need an experienced bat beyond this season and most of what they have will be gone after the last ball is caught this year.
5. This is the Worst the NL Central Will Be for a Decade
Young talent is flooding the division and it’s pretty clear this transition year is a unique opportunity for 2 or 3 teams that probably have no business winning anything this year.
That right there is the best reason to not treat 2023 like it doesn’t matter, even if you weren’t ready to be in any kind of race.
This young talent could explode and propel the team into something serious, or, it could falter and show more holes from point 4 I haven’t even visualized yet.
The Cardinals are down, but they aren’t an organization that is just going to be patient and wait, they’ll fix what they were this year and next year be back in the conversation. The Reds are in their own youth movement and all of that applies to them too, difference is they don’t have as much yet to come.
The Brewers are poised to downturn but they won’t bottom out.
The Cubs are confusing. Probably will be for a couple more years.
All that to say, if you can in 2023, do it, it certainly won’t get easier from here, but I like how they’re positioned.
The Pittsburgh Pirates swept the San Diego Padres on Thursday, marking the first time they’ve done so since June 4.
In a game that felt lost in the early innings, Pittsburgh rallied from a 4-1 deficit with four combined runs in the sixth and seventh inning to defeat the Padres and complete a much-needed sweep.
Former Bucco Joe Musgrove was strong in this one, going six innings with six strikeouts and two earned runs, but once the Pirates got him out of the game, that’s when the fireworks started.
Tim Hill would be charged with the loss here after giving up two earned runs while only recording one out, headlined by soft single from Jack Suwinski that would tie the game at four and a Henry Davis go-ahead RBI single to give the Pirates a 5-4 lead through seven.
Dauri Moreta got the ball in the seventh after Luis Ortiz gave up four earned runs in 4.2 IP and Ryan Borucki used one pitch to get out of the fifth and pitched scoreless baseball in the sixth.
The Pirates bullpen has been up and down, but not on Thursday, keeping the Padres scoreless and allowing the offense to make the comeback.
David Bednar would secure his 16th save of the season, allowing Pittsburgh to move within 4.5 games of the NL Central lead.
A revenge series against the Milwaukee Brewers looms this weekend and will start tonight with Osvaldo Bido facing Freddy Peralta.
News & Notes
First Pirates sweep since June 2-4 vs Cardinals
Henry Davis go-ahead RBI headlines win
Ortiz continues streak of Pirates starters allowing four earned runs or less
I’m back once again, in a cameo appearance, to present the 2023 COMPs for the top prospects at the Pirates’ disposal! For a refresh on methodology, check out my post from 2021. That year, there was not a consensus, top pick so I spread the analysis around several players that could be the choice. This year, I think it’s pretty clear that the Pirates will select one of two (three?) players with the top choice. So let’s dive into the options for Pittsburgh.
Dylan Crews, OF LSU
If you’ve come here for my scouting expertise, prepare to be thoroughly disappointed. I’ve welcomed my first child into the world so the only baseball I get to see nowadays is an inning or two from the Buccos during our night time bottle. But I’ve heard a thing or two about Crews. Some say he’s a generational talent, and he could probably slot into the lineup tomorrow. The idea of a lineup with Crews and Davis at the heart does sound enticing! His stats are downright gaudy, slashing .426/.567/.713 this season to lead LSU to the CWS.
Utilizing Fangraph’s The Board, the team there projects that he’s already the 8th best prospect in baseball. From his scouting report, “Crews can punish you to all fields. He’ll get extended on fastballs away from him and crush them the opposite way, or he can turn on pitches on the middle two-thirds of the plate and hit some titanic blasts to left. Breaking ball recognition is still a bit of a problem for him, and he tends to swing inside his fair share of sliders, enough that he projects more like an average contact hitter who gets to huge power.” And with that bat, he has impressive speed and the ability to stay in CF. So who does he best align with from COMPs?
Luis Robert, 2019 CWS (4.90 COMP)
We’ve seen Robert, a former premier prospect, play really well with the White Sox and he’s in the midst of his “I’m here” campaign this year. It’s difficult to find a player with the tools that Crews has, but as you can see Robert was scouted as a similar player. If the Pirates were to take Crews and he followed a similar track as Robert, you could see him in Pittsburgh as early as 2024 and making a major impact in 2025-2028. Players rarely hit their ceiling, but Crews continues his evolution, this seems like an end-result worth a full slot selection.
Paul Skenes, RHP LSU
The next option for the Pirates would be to go with the howitzer-armed Skenes. There has been plenty of complaints about his usage this season, but the talent is undeniable. A fastball that hits 102-mph is extremely enticing. And his frame surely implies that it is sustainable. Back to Fangraphs for the scouting report:
“Skenes is a much more powerful and explosive athlete than any other pitcher in the 2023 draft and should be able to maintain this velocity across a big league starter’s workload. There is some mechanical violence here (he’s throwing 100, after all) and the flat, tailing action on Skenes’ fastball only enables it to truly dominate in the upper/arm-side portion of the zone, but he tends to live in that area reliably. His glove-side breaking ball feel is similarly sentient. Skenes looks like he has two benders, or at least like he knows how to intentionally manipulate the shape of one. His in-zone breaking balls tend to look more like low-to-mid-80s curveballs, while his glove-side chase breakers have more of a two-plane slider look a lot of the time. His backdoor curveballs play beautifully with his fastball, and hitters often give up on that pitch out of hand only to watch it bend into the zone.”
I have seen comps to Strausberg, but the data I have doesn’t go back that far. Another comp I have seen is Sandy Alcantara, but Alcantara was more of a late-blooming prospect and his rise does not appear to be captured in his grades at Fangraphs. Okay, so who would I compare him to?
Hunter Greene, CIN 2021 (2.98 COMP)
Greene was a big time prospect, peaking at 34 in all of baseball, for the Reds. He’s currently shelved with a hip injury and he has some risk that he may be destined for a closer role. If the Pirates were to select Skenes and Crews goes on to be Luis Robert, and they only have a closer out of the deal, that would be a catastrophe. The organization will have to do their homework on Skenes to ensure there is some safety there if they are willing to make that move. But a player that routinely hits 102 and has the durability to throw well over 100 pitches in an outing is a rarity in the sport.
Luis Ortiz, PIT 2022 (4.42 COMP)
It’s interesting to note that Skenes compares favorably to the Pirates’ own Luis Ortiz, ranked #83 in the top 100 by Fangraphs.
Our final option would be if the Pirates go a similar route to 2021 and strike a below-slot deal with a player so that they can pay over-slot later on in the draft. Perhaps Crews drives a hard bargain and wants to max out the slot, as is his prerogative. And perhaps the Pirates are too concerned with that closer projection for Skenes. Where could they go?
Wyatt Langford, OF Florida
The final player to highlight is Langford, another player with prodigious power and speed. Langford’s report: “Buff and twitchy, the short-levered Langford’s arms are nearly as thick as they are long. His compact swing allows it to enter the hitting zone very quickly, enabling him to stay short to the ball and crush letter-high pitches, which is how he does most of his extra-base damage.” Longenhagen goes on to say “You can make a coherent argument that Langford’s tools are superior to Dylan Crews’, but the gap in their defensive ability is meaningful at this stage.” If you can get Crews’s power and speed at a cut rate price, do you say no?
Jo Adell, LAA – 2020 (5.37 COMP) / Spencer Torkelson, DET – 2021 (5.92 COMP)
Henry Davis, PIT – 2022 (7.75 COMP)
As you can see by the higher COMP scores, it’s hard to find someone with Langfords power / speed combo. Very much a bat-first option, but that bat will play. Longenhagen believes his defense is too poor to stay in CF, but he has the speed to be a decent defender, likely at a corner spot. These comps are no guarantee one way or the other, but if Pittsburgh continues with their underslot plan from 2021, getting THIS bat on a discount would be quite the coup.
So that’ll conclude the 2023 rendition of COMPS. As always, I’ll leave the spreadsheets for your perusal. Looking forward to adding a huge talent to the farm in a few weeks.
6/29/23- By Craig W. Toth – @BucsBasement on Twitter
OK, we won a game yesterday. If we win today, it’s called “two in a row”. And if we win again tomorrow, it’s called a “winning streak”… It has happened before!-Manager Lou Brown from Major League II
For the second straight night your Pittsburgh Pirates defeated the high spending San Diego Padres; only this time the Friars offense was made to look almost completely inept by the foursome of Mitch Keller, Carmen Mlodzinski, Yerry De Los Santos and Cody Bolton. Although Bolton tried to make things a little bit more interesting by loading the bases in the bottom of the 9th.
Led by the rejuvenated veteran-Carlos Santana-and the still, wet behind the ears rookie-Henry Davis, the Pirates bats eventually put the game out of reach; after taking a 2-0 lead on a first inning blast from the old man.
On the mound Keller was his normally consistent self; allowing just one run through 6 innings, and giving his team a chance to put the Padres away for good.
To their credit, Pittsburgh did just that with a five spot in the bottom of the 7th; on their way to a 7-1 victory.
News & Notes
Santana’s early homer was his second in as many days; and his 8th on the season. Following an absolutely freezing spell during the month of May, Santana has righted the ship over the past few weeks. Over his last 15 games-and 58 at bats-he is slashing .259/.302/.500 with 4 long balls.
Prior to last night’s contest-and after being given a few days off to rest-Ke’Bryan Hayes was placed on the 10-Day IL with a lower back issue; which is the same thing that limited him last season.
Replacing Hayes on the active roster, as well as the line-up, was off-season 40-Man addition, Jared Triolo; who would single in his Major League Debut.
Keller’s final line was: 6IP/4H/1ER/2BB/5K. He is now 9-3 on the season, with a 3.34 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP.
As positive as the outcome was, the Pirates lineup did strike out 11 times on the evening; with 10 coming at the hands of the Padres starter Blake Snell. Over his past 7 starts, Snell boasts a 0.86 ERA with a 0.83 WHIP and 66 strikes over 42 innings of work; so I guess they probably should feel too bad.
Today at 12:35 PM EST at PNC Park, your Pirates look to go for a sweep over the visiting Padres.
For Pittsburgh, Luis Ortiz (2-3/3.74 ERA/1.62 WHIP) takes the mound against old friend, Joe Musgrove (6-2/3.88 ERA/1.26 WHIP).
Steel City Pirates 