6-12-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter
Ahh baseball. Lose 2 of 3 to a team you’re supposed to beat the hell out of, win 2 of 3 against a team outspending you 5 to 1 right?
The A’s of course went on to sweep the Brewers in a 3 game set so clearly the NL Central is just super bad right? Well, yeah, but not because of this, the A’s are simply playing better baseball, in their last 4 series, they’ve taken 2 of 3 from the Braves, got swept by the Marlins, then what they did to the Pirates and ultimately their takedown of the Brewers. They do stink, and they’ll continue to stink, but every once in a while, they, being a professional baseball team will jump up and bite a team.
The A’s actually have done what many of you consistently told me you would prefer the Pirates do early in their rebuild, play all kids. Folks, that often looks like hot trash, but the difference is, when they win, people who might matter did it.
The method of rebuild or retool every team takes is an opportunity to learn yet another way to go when doing this stuff.
Anyway, we should thank them for helping the Pirates, they learned some important lessons against the A’s that they took directly into their Mets series.
Let’s go, I’m gonna have a hard time sticking to 5 today.
1. Now Doesn’t Always Have to be Forever
Every guy who gets called up to the Pirates isn’t going to be, nor are they expected to be a locked on starter for the next 6 or 7 years. Some of the players that right this second you believe will be part of what brings home some kind of hardware for your Pittsburgh Pirates Baseball Club won’t be here in 2 years, and if they are, they might have splinters in their ass from riding the pine.
The danger of forecasting out the “winning team of the future” is that it mentally locks you out from appreciating the process and evaluating as you go.
A quick look at the system and you’d believe Nick Gonzales, Termarr Johnson, Cheng, Peguero, Alvarez, you know, guys like that are the future at middle infield for this club. Now if that’s true, obviously Marcano, Castro, Bae, guys like that, must not be the answer right?
Maybe, but keep your pants on.
Let’s take a guy like Rodolfo Castro, he has his struggles, many of you have already labeled him a platoon player, if you bother thinking he has a spot here at all. Let’s say as this year plays out he winds up being a 20-25 homerun guy. First, he’d have to really get going, but for the purpose of this conversation, let’s let him get there. Well, if he does that folks, he’s a piece.
I don’t care which prospect you like better, it’s going to be very hard to come up and push a guy who does that out of this lineup. Certainly can be done, but it won’t be easy. Nobody is going to sit him on the off chance this prospect could be better one day after he gains experience, instead they’ll likely wait for an injury or for that prospect to fight through positional changes in an effort to get at bats and maybe then, they prove themselves worthy of taking some ABs away.
As it stands now, if Castro were to do something like that, I’d bet it would anger more people who thought a prospect was going to pass him by easily, than convert doubters into Castro believers.
Don’t get me wrong. When someone gets called up for the first time at like 27 or 28 years old, expecting them to become a fixture is at least a bit of wishful thinking and clearly not ideal for a prospect, but sometimes, good for a couple years is an ok outcome for a player.
In other words, Ji Hwan Bae may not be the Centerfielder of the future, but if he can hold it down now and ultimately be replaced in 2025, hey, that was a hell of a success developmentally.
Really think about what defines developmental success. If that’s churning out a guy like Cutch, well, your list of “successes” is relatively short isn’t it? If success to you is finding a guy who holds down a position for you, and performs above league average for a stretch like say Marcano, even if long term you can’t see a position for him, well, your list is much longer right?
Point is, if you decide who the winners and losers in the system are now, I guarantee you’ll not like how this shakes out.
Despite the way most fans watch a rebuild unfold, teams don’t think about players as having no shot to hold off a prospect for the simple fact they understand what a prospect really is, a guy with talent who should they work hard enough, have enough talent in the first place, develop enough flexibility to work the bat in, might be, MIGHT BE, a player.
They think this about Low A players, they think this about AAA players. They think it about number 1 picks (although there is typically more hope there), they think it about 15th rounders.
This year is where some of the way we’ve been drooling over prospects should slow down a bit as we shift our gaze to the big club.
Just keep in mind, 66% of first round selections make the majors.
Scouting a player for sometimes over a year, relying on National talent evaluators and internal sources, seeing them play in High School, or college, all of that work and still all of these professionals miss 33% of the time. A great average for a baseball fan knowing failing 7 out of 10 times consistently gets you in the HOF, but still far less than most fans would expect.
Sometimes, its best to appreciate what you have, watch them grow, understand even their warts that remain after a couple years in the league pale in comparison to what a rookie will bring to the table when they get started. If your team is in it, they tend to be loathed to introduce that to their fold.
It’s time to start letting this play out naturally, root for the logo, hope for the prospects to come up and impact that logo, worry much less about who they have to beat, worry much less about who is here being beat.
When call ups are coming, you’ll start to understand why much more when you stop having all these decisions viewed through the prism of the supposition the Pirates are out to screw every kid out of money. I say this because starting right around when these two catchers come up, this simply won’t have opportunity to really be true.
Think about it? What will the reason be next season if Gonzales and Peguero aren’t up here? Is it them? Maybe. Were they bad choices or acquisitions? Maybe. Are they blocked by a combination of Castro, Bae, Marcano, Cruz, hey, could be.
See what I mean?
Start setting yourself up mentally to take this in, because if you’re mentally married to a certain prospect being the savior, you’re bound to be disappointed.
More than anything, it’s close to time to think of them almost as equal parts currency and potential piece. If you’re a Pirates fan under the age of 50, you’ve never seen a system in Pittsburgh this deep, and that comes with a unique experience. Yes, even the mid 2010’s, they had a first wave, but precious little else beyond it.
I mean, there are people who already have Dylan Crews penciled into the lineup for 2024 folks. The ignorance of how this stuff actually works is palpable.
Exciting.
2. Osvaldo Bido, Why?
I talked about this quite a bit on my show The Pirates Fan Forum this week, but writing it out will be cleaner and more organized.
I also wrote up a bit about this situation in last week’s What Should They Do Now piece, but now that we know it’s going to be Bido, I feel like I need to really explain, why him?
First, this is more about other players than it is Bido.
Quinn Priester is simply not seen as someone who will experience success at the MLB level right this moment. Referring back to point 1 today, no, this doesn’t mean they NEVER see him reaching that level, no it doesn’t mean they think he stinks, it doesn’t even mean they think Bido will do better, although I bet they do believe that right now, but bringing up a guy you feel pretty confident is going to to get punched in the nose and he really matters to what you’re building, chances are you aren’t going to do it.
Bido is a system guy. He’s 27 and he’s spent parts of 3 seasons in AAA. We’re talking about 166.2 innings of AAA work. His numbers aren’t spectacular, but he’s consistent, seasoned, and honestly, probably near his ceiling.
Meaning he may not be great or even good, but he is developed. He’s about as far as AAA can take a guy, and his ceiling being a 5th starter or middle inning reliever, there isn’t much separation there from where he is to where they see him reaching.
I can still make a case for one of the other options, but here’s the thing, unless this team makes a trade to acquire another starter, I think we’ll wind up seeing many of them too, ready or not.
They’re a Rich Hill blister away from having a decision like that forced upon them. I can’t even say they were unprepared, but having 3 guys you expect to get innings from on the IL with TJ, yeah, that’s an unexpected happening.
Think about this, Johan Oviedo will have already reached his career high for innings by the All Star Break. This thing is anything but deep right now folks.
The goal here is as follows:
Get Roansy in the bullpen, figure out what’s going wrong, find ways to help him through it, have him make a few appearances to prove the changes to himself and the team, ramp him back up and if there have been no further injuries, demote whomever you had up or swap positions with Roansy.
Folks, that’s not what you want to do with Quinn or Jones.
If I’m the Pirates, I’m reversing course on my decision to move Carmen Mlodzinski to the pen and start getting him stretched back out, starting options from the upper levels have to be the priority now.
Bido gets the call because he’s the most experienced and there is comfort in knowing he won’t be hurt by this experience and could potentially even show he’s ready for the step. The alternatives like Quinn or Jones, well they would be what I call “stuff” calls. They have stuff and they could get outs for a time, but Bido is better positioned to “pitch” his way through it.
You don’t have to like it, but I hope you at least can understand it. Taking a number one pick who isn’t crushing AAA consistently vs taking a system guy who at 22 was a late bloomer for the International draft who has consistently performed to an expected level is the team’s preference here, for the problem at hand. Lose a guy like Roansy all year, and you’ll see them make a different call.
If Roansy doesn’t get it or they decide the bullpen is best for him, yeah, different decisions will be made.
Not easy, and it’s not supposed to be. Being IN IT, has created a different situation than I’m sure they expected to see, but a rash of injuries stole their ability to look prepared for it.
Essentially, you don’t make call ups based on who has the most potential to be a very good player in time, you make them based on who right that moment has the best chance to be MLB ready for the need at hand.
Let me be abundantly clear here, there is no Super 2 or manipulation angle to this story. If they had a nailed on guy they felt was ready, he’d be here, as evidenced by Luis Ortiz already being in the rotation.
3. CSN and Palacios on the Roster is Weird
For one thing, the Pirates have 14 position players and only 12 pitchers. When the Pirates call up Bido, I could easily see one of these two going right back out the door.
Mark Mathias is another option but being right handed, he’s less redundant than these two lefties. Palacios has gotten starts against right handed pitching but not all of them, so calling up CSN to add to that mix was a bit strange to me. Add in on top of that he hasn’t had an at bat since his recall.
Quite simply, I’m not sure what the plan is here. Maybe one of them is a guy they see being a bench guy and less of a prospect, hey, maybe both of them are that?
I can’t help but feel one goes, because you can’t put Roansy in the pen knowing you won’t want to use him for a minute, yet keep your staff short at 12. Especially when you’re adding in a starter who doesn’t have much hope of going deeper than 5 or 6 if things go great.
Endy won’t be long now either, so that almost 100% has Mathias or the survivor of this cut on their way too. Choi gets added to this congestion as well.
The bottom of this roster doesn’t look like it used to. It’s no longer super easy to jettison the bottom 5 or so, they require thought now.
That said, it’s hard to believe you’d call up a kid like CSN and give him no at bats then demote him, I mean, why call him up at all, and Palacios well, he’s actually been ok, .748 OPS in 45 plate appearances isn’t exactly awful, but maybe they think it’s not enough to hold back a much younger guy who could fill the same role?
The more I think about it, the more I wonder how they’ll work through all these outfielders that seem interchangeable. How does Swaggerty get a shot, you now, if he looks like he deserves one. Cal Mitchell is again hitting in AAA, but maybe he needs to play instead of sitting on a bench? Gorski, Fraiser, I mean keep going, these guys all have something interesting and aren’t complete, how do they make time and provide opportunity to all these guys?
Truth is, they probably can’t and won’t.
Trying to make sense of this is probably fruitless, but for the sake of the team, here’s hoping they push the right buttons, cause as I look at the landscape I truly can’t see a path to providing each a tryout, and I’m not even including guys like Davis who could eat RF reps himself.
Whole lot of trade package material right here in this position group. Probably more than the middle infield we’ve famously ascribed as being a “glut”.
4. Why Endy and Not Henry?
When we started the season, this would have been a silly question. Endy was unquestionably ahead of his injury plagued position mate, but as the season has played out, the gap between the two, hell, even the order in which they should be considered ready to call up has been put in question.
Before the season I wrote and said Henry would likely just get a cup of coffee this year remember? Even I’ve updated my expectations.
That said, the conventional wisdom, and by that I mean just about everyone who analyses this stuff, everyone who writes about this stuff, all the scouts that have been on record, they all seem to agree it’s Endy, and it’s pretty clear from conversations I’ve had, the team feels this way too.
So why? Davis is easily having the better season. If you have 2 of anything and only want to use one to begin with, why not take the one who looks the part a bit more from the jump?
So, lets pretend this choice is literally just this; Endy or Henry first? Not which one has the better career, not which one catches, not who matters more, simply, which one should get the call first, and what makes them “ready”.
Let’s make the case:
For Endy Rodriguez
- Endy just hit 300 AAA innings in 2023 behind the dish, add in his 22.1 from 2022, his 188.1 in AA Altoona last season, his 434.2 in Greensboro in 2022 and finally his 54 for Bradenton in 2021 and you have 998.4 innings of catching in MiLB. Almost a full 1,000.
- Endy has shown an evolved approach at the plate in 2023 against AAA competition, netting him 22 BBs / 32 Ks a stellar rate, better than his history on both counts. His average, OBP, SLG and OPS are all down as compared to his AA performance as one would expect, but his are down a bit more than you’d like.
- Simple, but Endy is on the 40-man Roster.
- Endy can play 1B, LF, RF, 2B, DH and of course, catcher, and he can hold his own at all of them. He might be a touch short for 1B in an ideal world but he is athletic and makes it work.
- In 2023 Endy has in AAA put down these numbers. .251 AVG, .338 OBP, .394 SLG, .733 OPS
- Endy has a 27% CS rate. 73 of 200
- Every level save the current home in AAA, Endy has dominated, he’s slowed at this level as much as Henry has accelerated at AA.
- Endy has become trusted to help with the running game, but still isn’t’ the smoothest receiver of the ball. Blocking so far is more about athleticism than technique. As with any catcher, game calling is a work in progress and will remain one.
For Henry Davis
- Henry has caught 22 innings at the AAA level, 443.1 in AA Altoona, 115 in AZFL, 6 in FCL, 26 in Bradenton, 147 in Greensboro and 12 for the FCL. That’s 771.1. Injury had much to do with this but even then, many will tell you High level college ball is akin to High A or AA ball. I’m not sure I buy that, but it’s said often by people smarter than I about this stuff. He’s got 99 games of experience in NCAA, so give him due credit there if you think you should.
- Henry can play DH, RF and of course his beloved Catcher. By most accounts, he’s handled RF well.
- Henry has a 14% CS rate. 10 of 61
- In 2023 Henry has between AA and AAA (41 games and 5 games) put down these numbers. .279 AVG, .431 OBP, .527 SLG, .958 OPS
- Henry has been disciplined at the plate 37 BBs / 39 Ks, a huge development for a guy who up until now in pro ball struck out twice as much as he walked. Add in his 7 HBP and you have an on base machine.
- Receiving and blocking have improved, but need work, calling games a work in progress and bluntly will be for years in MLB, that’s kinda how this works.
Look at all that and all I got is Endy is on the 40 already, has much more MiLB experience and has shown a comfort level with all the concepts the Pirates want to see. It also might be more important that Henry nail down catching a bit more, because he’s going to need to play there to get at bats unless he DHs a lot.
If they chose Henry, I could easily be convinced it’s the right move, but the point is, one is coming and they need to get this process started sooner than later. We’ll be dealing with this process for 2 or 3 years I bet.
In fact, Endy could be sent down to work on stuff for Henry himself. They could play this a ton of different ways.
But I think it all starts with Endy on the 19th at home against the Cubs.
5. Can They Really Take This Division?
Keep saying no if you like, it’s easily the smart bet, but if they manage to get this rotation right somehow, lots of ifs and hope baked in there, they have a shot. I don’t think standing pat gets it done, even counting Cruz returning in as a sure thing as opposed to wishful thinking.
The division isn’t really in position to help itself. The Cubs for instance will want to move some pieces they planned to ship for prospects and they likely won’t be fooled by being kinda sorta in it. The Brewers have some very real issues coming with some youngsters about to fortify their roster a bit, they might see themselves has having 1 more good shot with this core, so I could see them trying, but they’re also up against it on what that franchise is capable of carrying.
The Reds will subtract, but might improve because of what they’re making room for. The Cardinals could have all their vets wake up and go on a run but in the position they’re in, they have a lot of work to do to consider themselves buyers.
The Pirates are early, they know it, you know it. They have a couple players to call up and expect impact and Cruz returning, but it’s all about what they can get done for the rotation, and if they survive the situation long enough to open trade dialog.
So yes, they can, this division is that bad, but the Pirates have to thread a needle. Survive the current pitching situation and augment with real MLB experienced pitching as soon as the market opens, and yes, I think they can.
Either way, barring a total collapse, they’re easily one of the top 3 in this division and that’ll keep them in the conversation.