Ke’Bryan Powers Bucs Past Surging Cardinals in 7-5 Win to Start Homestand (29-27)

6-3-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

It was just a couple days ago.

The Pirates had dipped below .500 at 26-27. Many wondered if they’d ever crest that mark again this season, and even if they did, falling below that mark really made sure everyone knew one thing, the collapse was complete.

Most of the great work they did in April had been erased and like it or not they’d fallen into a dogfight in an inferior division.

The team however, didn’t get the notes. See, they were supposed to just go away after getting punched in the nose by the Giants to open their final series of the road trip with a 14-4 loss and dipping below .500. Instead, they came out and took game two with a tight 2-1 victory the next day, and finally paid back their hosts with a 9-4 victory for the series win and the right to head home with a winning record.

Still, the Cardinals have been the cream of the crop in the NL Central, and even while the Brewers hold the top spot, the Cards have way more demons to remind the Pirates of.

To start this game, it looked like a strange, uncalled for pitcher’s duel. Roansy Contreras had been struggling and Jack Flaherty has too. Flaherty has much like his elder statesman buddy Adam Wainwright, absolutely feasted facing the Pirates, and last night would be no different.

Roansy was cruising early, velocity was back up, command looked good, I mean maybe we got lucky here and the Pirates wouldn’t pay a price for having to cut their Bullpen move with Ro short. Looked like he had gotten the message right? Well, maybe not.

In the 3rd inning, the Cardinals had little mercy on the struggling youngster.

Before you knew it, it was 5-0 Cardinals. A promising start, but we haven’t seen this offense look capable of coming back from a deficit like that, they’ve been scuffling as a collective for a month now. Game over right?

Well, Roansy would gather himself and pitch a clean 4th before being lifted for Rob Zastryzny. Lots of trouble on the bases, but he wiggled free in the 5th.

Cody Bolton was called on for the 6th.

Now, let me be very clear, Cody wasn’t “good” in this almost 2 inning outing. 4 walks, and 2 hits were somehow not enough to net the Cards a single run. Certainly happy with the outcome, but the execution, not so much.

Meanwhile, the Bucs bats were playing along to the script. Only netting one run against Flaherty.

And then…..the 7th.

Before it was close, it started like most uprisings do, slowly until guys started believing something was here. Carlos Santana, just returned from some time off letting his lower back heal up gave the Bucs a jump start with the bases loaded.

OK, it’s now 5-3, chipping away.

Still two runners on, and Ji Hwan Bae struck out so now the Bucs rally is coming to an end. 2 guys on, but Hayes has been struggling so badly at the plate, we’ll get ’em next inning or, you know, likely fall short.

Nope…

No doubter to give the Bucs a 6-5 lead. Man did that feel good. Awesome to see that smile again. Awesome to think maybe he’ll remember the swing that helped it return.

Not done yet….

Now, you’ve been here, you know what happens when the Pirates have a lead through 7. Holderman and Bednar shut it down.

Game.

Pirates a half game out of first, 2 games over .500, open a 9 game homestand on the right note.

News & Notes

  • Before the game, the Cardinals placed Lars Nootbaar on the IL and recalled Jordan Walker.
  • Josh Palacios hit his first MLB homerun.
  • The Pirates used 6 pitchers to achieve this outcome, and none of them surrendered a run after Contreras left the game. The bullpen is no joke.
  • Robert Stephenson was traded to the Rays for a minor league short stop named Alika Williams. He is a defender, not a hitter. His floor is pretty established, he’s a glove first player, and while he’s been in the Rays top 30 pretty consistently, nobody is going to confuse him with SS of the future. Throughout the system, the Pirates feel they are light on good fielding SS, so there you have it.
  • Andrew McCutchen had 2 more hits tonight. He needs 3 hits for 2,000. 1 double for 400. 1 triple for 50 and 5 home runs for 300. I won’t ever tell you how to spend your entertainment dollars, but solid chance all of these happen on this homestand.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals Series Preview

6-2-23 – By Christian Wolf – @CWolfPGH on Twitter

When & Who

St. Louis Cardinals (25-32) at Pittsburgh Pirates (28-27)

Game 1 – (6/2, 7:05 EST)

Probable Pitchers:

For the Pirates – Roansy Contreras (3-4, 4.33 ERA)

For the Cardinals – Jack Flaherty (3-4, 4.81 ERA)

Game 2 – (6/3, 4:05 EST)

Probable Pitchers:

For the Pirates –Luis Ortiz (1-2, 4.35 ERA)

For the Cardinals– TBD

Game 3 – (6/4, 11:35 EST)

For the Pirates – Rich Hill (4-5, 4.76 ERA)

For the Cardinals– TBD

Team Trends

Who would have thought that coming into June, the Cardinals would be down near the bottom of the NL Central division? (To be fair, the bottom isn’t exactly real far from the top this year). But the Cardinals turned a dreadful start around and are now attempting to approach the .500 mark again after a horrible April.

The Pirates are coming off a dreadful month of their own, and are going to try to put the month of May behind them and work on a successful June. Somewhat amazingly, they are still right in the thick of things in the NL Central after a May that would put them far out of the division race in other years.

Who’s Hot

For the Cardinals –  Nolan Arenado – Arenado recorded a hit in each of the past three games, going 4-for-10 in that span, and also just striking out once.

For the Pirates – Andrew McCutchen – What an amazing comeback Cutch is having with the Bucs, as he closes in on 2,000 career hits. He collected four of those hits against the Giants, while also collecting two walks.

Who’s Not

For the Cardinals – Willson Contreras – Contreras got a bag in the offseason but hasn’t exactly done much to show it yet. He is batting .043 over his past seven games, .107 over his last 15, and .183 over his last 30. He has struck out 33 times over his past 30 games, and just went 1-for-9 in the Cardinals series against the Royals, with four strikeouts.

For the Pirates – Austin Hedges – You could make an argument for Hedges to be here pretty much every series, but I try to avoid him as it seems obvious hitting isn’t a strong suit, but alas, I can’t avoid it forever. Just one hit for Hedges in the Giants series, with no walks. He is batting .169 over his past 30 games and still is yet to record a home run.

Series Overview & Prediction

Pirates-Cardinals always is a lot of fun, especially at PNC Park. This feels like an important matchup, but more so to see really how these teams stack up against each other. The Bucs split with the Cardinals in St. Louis last time out, and a series win here would kick off June in good fashion, and truly, this is going to be a very important month for the team.

St. Louis is certainly a talented team and is making a comeback after a rough beginning to the season. I think the Cardinals take two of three from the Pirates here, only because the Cardinals seem due to begin to climb back up the division, and the Pirates are still trying to recover from some bad play over the past month. Either way, this series will be a good one to watch.

The Fallacy of the Best 26

6-1-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

It’s the battle cry of the wounded when it comes to baseball fan bases. The unquestioned barometer for whether your team is trying. The only way to truly be “all in”.

The best 26 players should be on the roster.

Trouble is, it’s almost completely crap.

Ok, that probably got half the readers to hate quit the site or close the app, but for those of you willing to give me a shot, I’ll explain what I mean here a bit.

Pick a team, give me 5 minutes and I’ll fairly easily show you who their worst Starting Pitcher, Reliever and position players are. Every team has them you know.

I’ll take that list and look to their minor league system and in 5 more minutes be able to tell you why whomever I identified from that list as “call up ready” likely isn’t getting the call over one of the “bad” players.

Today, let’s talk about all the reasons “best 26” rarely, if ever happens.

Money

Simple, elegant, a perfect headline for the dirtiest discussion on this whole subject.

When a team pays a player, dumping them is often very difficult. You either have to find another team willing to take them, or you simply have to accept you’re paying them for nothing and move on with your life.

If you’ve been a fan of a baseball team for a decade, you have a player that popped into your head immediately. Sometimes, they weren’t always bad, but they sure are now.

Pirates fans sure as hell have. Yoshi Tsutsugo got about 100 at bats more than he should have, and he didn’t even get 200 people. Gregory Polanco probably shouldn’t have played his entire last season in Pittsburgh. I could easily go on, especially if I got into the far past, but I think you get the drift.

Jason Heyward wasn’t one of the Cubs best 26 for most of his contract, yet there he was, rostered and playing.

Money clouds this seemingly simple thought exercise doesn’t it?

When a team like the Yankees has this crop up, you’ll see it even give them cramps. Now, what’s “big money” to them, isn’t the same as what Pittsburgh would consider, but still, it happens. Players don’t work out and we love to point out the deal is an Albatross.

The proverbial Ben Folds Five – Brick argument. He’s a brick and we’re drowning slowly….

Yet they just can’t let go most times.

Trusting Veterans

When a guy has a substantial MLB career they tend to get some benefit of doubt. In other words, a really crappy month at the plate don’t tend to cancel out 8 years of statistical proof that the player will return to form.

The only way to truly know the answer is to let it and indeed let him play it out. The more seasoned and consistent the player’s career has been, the more likely the team will need to see a larger bank of evidence to move on.

Back to our examples, Yoshi had almost none so he only got about 200 plate appearances before getting flushed.

Pitchers might be even worse. There is such a leaguewide shortage of quality arms that the law of distribution tends to ensure every team has at least a couple arms they’d prefer to hide until being blown out. So when a guy has been legitimately good over his career, it’s hard to accept you just missed, so they stay, maybe getting a reduced role but try and try again teams do.

Even while they have that stud reliever or starter just killing AAA?!?, you’re surely asking. Yeah. Because to a man, almost every baseball coach would tell you they’d rather use someone who’s been there than someone who hasn’t with far superior stuff. It’s kinda like thinking you could drive a NASCAR because you handle I-279 just fine every day and cut people of routinely to be in the right lane of the bridge. Maybe you could, but nobody is going to sponsor you until they’ve seen you do it on their track at their speed and even then the owner’s fingers will be chewed to the bone fretting.

Veterans get swag and leeway because to a degree, they’ve earned it. With average career lengths of 5.6 years, meaning most players don’t even reach free agency who break into the league, when one does reach that territory, chances are they’ve managed to do something at least uniquely if not flat out well.

Another angle here most don’t think about, the team will likely need to sign veteran free agents next year too. So try convincing a guy you’re trying to sign why you only gave that vet last year 75 at bats before DFAing him. Vets like to know they are going to at least get a shot to turn things around before getting walking papers.

So yes, sometimes a team will actively choose a lesser player with experience over a kid with clearly more talent who has less.

Keep in mind, I’m not saying any of this is the “right” way to think, I’m just saying, it’s reality in MLB.

Playing time

There are starters, and there are bench guys. Everyone knows that. But sometimes this factors in on why guys do or don’t get promoted. Let’s say you have a guy who is proven to be as ready as you’re going to get him in AAA.

Simply nothing left to learn by most accounts. Looks like he has a good shot too, but you have a problem, you don’t have at bats to give. Meaning, the guy you have starting in MLB, well, he’s not sitting. You have two options, teach the kid to play elsewhere or bring him up and have him play off the bench.

The worst thing you can do for a prospect is to have them just sit around, at any level really. Yet, you do at some point need to onboard the kid. You don’t want to leave Spring counting on a kid most of the time, now we’re saying it’s not ideal to slow walk him either, so how the hell is a kid supposed to get a crack?

9 times out of 10 it’s an injury, but nothing helps more than being positionally capable of moving around. It’s why you see so may kids bounced all over the field in MiLB. When they don’t, well, let’s just say their landing strip isn’t well lit.

Positional Concerns

There are many things to consider when constructing a baseball team, and positional ability is one of the big ones.

When you look at a team’s top 10 prospects, you’ll see many times the guy at the very top is nowhere near ready for MLB. That’s because all these lists are based primarily on a player’s ceiling, not ETA, not Floor, not stats, just their Tool ratings.

Well, at least at first. That’s part of why you see so many top prospects jump to the top of these lists when they get drafted and fall off after a season or two. Once scouts see them in the better talent pools, they reevaluate and re rank.

If you have a top of your prospect rankings filled to the brim with starting pitching, first of all, god bless you, good chance your team will someday soon deliver, but beyond that, the likelihood that your best 5 starters, or most talented 5 are in your rotation is just shy of nil.

The Pirates as we speak have 7 players considered middle infielders on the 40-man. 8 when Cruz returns (OK if). Of those, 2 are seen as SS capable. 6 of them are considered Young players or prospects.

Now, for 7-8 of those precious 40 man spots to be given to one rather narrow position group is fine, but when you start pulling for them to skip all of them and try another like Nick Gonzales because he’s hitting in AAA or whatever let me tell you what goes through their minds.

Nick also isn’t seen as a SS. He can play it in a pinch, but it’s not where they want him. Adding another 2B only guy while still trying to find out if you have anything with Castro Bae and the like is kinda counterintuitive.

Is he better than the 2B options the team is currently rostering? Maybe. Sincerely maybe he is. But for the shear percentage this group takes up on the 40-man you really need them to be able to move on from someone.

Super easy. Cut Owings right? Fixes the whole ratio thing, gets more talent up here, helps the team right now right? Well, maybe, or maybe it just prevents you from learning what you have.

Nobody is going to lose sleep over losing a guy like that, but patching a hole right now with yet another maybe might create a situation where nobody gets a fair shake.

Reality is the Pirates don’t need a backup SS often enough to have that position filled by a player who matters. If Gonzales is called up, he’ll start, and he’ll start most games for a while. It’ll mean few if any opportunity for guys like Bae or Castro, and when Cruz does return it’ll mean one of them is back in the minors.

That’s fine, happens every day in the game but if it also means one of them loses their spot on the 40, you’re going to be talking about losing some talent you just worked your ass off to build up into depth.

Some positions like catcher, well they effect more than just the position. If the catcher is bad, he can hurt the pitching staff, he can hurt the defense against the run game and no matter how he hits he can’t entirely make up for it. At some point the Pirates are going to have a rookie backstop, so at some point they are going to find a way to be ok with that fact.

Even so, Catcher is not a position to jump the gun on. Under no circumstances to I see the Pirates cleaning house on the position and calling up both rookies, at least not before September.

Nobody has really in AAA with the exception of Josh Palacios, but say a position player like Matt Fraizer starts raking. Think of everything he’d have to jump over to get here. CSN, Jack, Swaggerty, Palacios Mitchell, Joe, Bae and I’m not even discussing guys like Young or even Vilade.

So define their best 26. Out of that number you get no more than 5 OF, so who is so bad they’re out right now? Palacios? He’s 27, surely not in the long term plans, but he’s also hitting .280 with a .757 OPS. Short sample size of course, but he’s done ok with his opportunity. Won’t be Jack, can’t be Reynolds, doubt it’s Bae, Positive it won’t be Joe. Point is, one of them has to go to upgrade, and if Palacios is the odd man out, so be it, but it’s also hardly a priority when he’s actually hitting, even if he isn’t ultimately one of the best 26.

All that position flexibility we love to laugh at, well, this is part of the why.

Manipulation

Everyone does it, nobody admits it. Well, ok, nobody who keeps their job admits it.

Super 2 and getting an extra year team control are two different functions. One has a defined time attached, the other has a formula that isn’t announced as correct for almost a full 2 years after the call up.

Players look ready in Spring all the time, and rarely do you see teams Go North with them. Why? The player is easily one of the best 26 right?

Sure, but if you can make sure that player is likely yours for an extra year, you do it. The rules make it legal, so teams take advantage.

Hate it all you want, it’s a thing and until MLB changes and both sides think it matters it’ll remain a thing.

Real examples of this being supposed to be true are far greater than real examples of this being undeniably true.

Let’s take Endy as an example. Looked 100% ready in Spring with the bat, showed some real world examples of his catching shortcomings, but nothing you couldn’t overcome. Simply hadn’t played much in AAA yet. Hadn’t managed a staff and been the everyday guy back there yet.

Still could have done it, but the Pirates maybe more than most value the defensive side of the catching position. Right or wrong.

He’s caught most games he’s played in AAA, and done ok, maybe a bit of trouble controlling the run game, a bit of trouble blocking balls, calling games is still a work in progress. Framing is coming along well according to scouts.

Problem is at least for making the manipulation argument, he hasn’t hit. Not like he has anyway. His career .295 AVG and .903 OPS are for 2023 at .234 and .726.

Way better than Hedges, yes, I’ll get there…

Point is, you know, I know, players know, Endy Rodriguez is in AAA because of first and foremost Super 2. Thing is, his stats give them an out. He isn’t embarrassing them. Certainly isn’t pushing them. In fact in a recent interview with Alex Stumpf at DK Pittsburgh Sports, Rodriguez had this to say, “The focus is very different, Now there’s just one position where I can put 100% of my time and try to do a better job for the pitchers.”

Even the player is giving them an out.

Is it manipulation? Oh my, no doubt, but if this were a court of law, sorry, you aren’t getting the conviction, maybe you can get them on tax evasion instead.

As long as he’s in AAA the team doesn’t have one of their best 26 on the MLB roster. Fact.

Team is Just Too Good

Granted, this doesn’t happen a ton in Pittsburgh, but it does happen in the league. The Yankees for instance had no patience for Miguel Andujar to return to rookie form. They had a good team and needed a sure bet at 3B, not a guy who didn’t look like he was the same player after being injured. They yoyo’d him and evenutally moved on. The team was too good to even see if he was good enough. Hell the Dodgers had Jose Hernandez in AA because for them signing a bullpen arm, even if a lesser talent with experience was better than onboarding rookies in front of him.

I won’t spend much time on this one, it may never happen in Pittsburgh.

Options

At the stage of rebuild we’re in this is rarely an issue, but it sure will be. As this group grows together, we’ll get to the point where options have been exhausted by players like Marcano, Bae, Castro, Mitchell, you know what I’m talking about.

It happens all over.

In another season, we’ll see guys like this find their way to the DFA/Waiver markets. I’m not predicting doom for any of these players specifically, but the truth is, most prospects don’t turn out and as pressure builds from the minors, there’s less and less room to stash guys like this. The faster you push guys through, the faster you reach a boiling point, the more talent you could use you’ll see slip through the cracks.

Point is, this stuff gets harder when your team gets older. By 2025, every move not dealing with the very fringes of the roster will be painful for some. In fact, by 2025, the ritual calling for prospects to immediately arrive will quiet.

It’s because the team will be better, and have less holes, but it’s also because deciding to make a call will have real world consequences that directly effect the depth of the organization.

Closing

The best 26 don’t tend to all live at the MLB level because factoring in everything, it’s very hard to make the stars all align. Couple that with most fans not understanding a kid’s ceiling isn’t a guarantee of successfully reaching it and you have the complaint storm we see for the first 3 months of every season.

I get that this is far too complicated for someone who just tunes in when the Bachelor isn’t on and just want to see the best players in the org night after night, but for those of you along for the ride on this rebuild, you know I’m not lying.

It’s going to be much more intense in a year or two, and by then, most “fans” won’t even know more than 5 prospect’s names.

A good MLB product shifts the focus, as it should. A bad one brings the scrutiny and ignorance of pretending things done in AA directly translate to transposing those statistics to MLB.

Just like with Cruz, once they get here, you’ll see why they aren’t as “ready” as you thought, and they’ll then play above whomever your next “best 26” guy is for many of the same reasons.

Pirates Bats Back Keller In Series Victory: (28-27)

5-31-23 – By Craig W. Toth – @BucsBasement on Twitter

Keller threw 101 pitches over 6 innings of work-with 74 of them going for strikes. He’s putting the ball exactly where he wants it, while using a solid 4 pitch mix; with a couple other off speed pitches-a curve and changeup-to keep batters off balance.

On the day he generated 35 CS (Called Strikes) + Whiffs, on his way to 8 Ks and 1 free pass. Sure the stat line will show 10 hits and 4 earned runs; yet, how many of those came on legitimate hard contact? Maybe 3 or 4. The rest were infield, bloop and slow rolling singles.

Still, this wasn’t even the main storyline as the Pirates bats actually produced more than enough offense to make up for a somewhat less than clean outing from Keller; knocking in 9 runs on 14 hits.

And, if we are being honest the overwhelming majority of comments on my timeline were about DFA’ing Chris Owings ; which are totally justified, but kind of confusing in taking this opportunity-on a day the Pirates won-to address an issue with a player that has now accumulated 29 at bats during the month of May. That’s 29 at bats across the 20 games he has been on the active roster.

Sure bring up someone to replace him on the bench-most likely Mark Mathias, even though he can’t play shortstop; or even Jared Triolo, who seems to be the only Minor Leaguer they trust at position on a regular basis. However, be prepared for the same number of at bats to go to them. Because if you think it should be Nick Gonzales, Liover Peguero or another top prospect; who are the going to take at bats away from? Tucupita Marcano? Ji-hwan Bae? Rodolfo Castro?

Sorry for the tangent.

More importantly than anything-at least for today-is the fact that your Pittsburgh Pirates won 9-4; and actually took a series in the month of May.

News & Notes

  • Keller now has 93 strikeouts on the season, which makes him the only Pirates pitcher in history to have more than 90 strikeouts before June 1st. He also now has 8 Ks or more in 7 straight games; something no other pitcher has accomplished in the modern era. Oh, and his 7 wins are more than anyone on the team during 2022.
  • Hayes really needed a game like that; going 2 for 5, including a 2-run triple in the top of the 3rd.
  • McCutchen and Joe each went 3 for 4, while Reynolds totaled 3 RBI.
  • The bullpen put together another solid performance; allowing just 2 hits and zero walks, while striking out 3 more Giants hitters over the final 3 innings.
  • The Pirates did announce some Minor League moves as Travis Swaggerty returned to the Indianapolis Roster and Blake Cederlind was reinstated off the 7-day IL; only to be released after posting a 13.50 ERA and 2.000 WHIP in 6 innings with Bradenton.

Pittsburgh gets what has become a regular off day tomorrow-Thursday-before returning to PNC for a 9-game home-stand; which begins on Friday night against the St. Louis Cardinals.

The scheduled pitching matchup is Roansy Contreras (3-4/4.33 ERA/1.38 WHIP) versus Jack Flaherty (3-4/4.81/1.53 WHIP) for the Redbirds.

Top 15 Plus 5 More Update

5-31-23 – By Justin Verno – @JV_PITT on Twitter

1–Endy Rodriguez-

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwRC+BB%K%
A.212/.312/.371.683.159.3107111.7%14.3%
Week.087/.160/.174.334.087.160-248%24%

2-Henry Davis-

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwRC+BB%k%
AAA.302/.451/.5971.048.714.46618317.1%17.1%
Week.333/.478/.389.867.056.42215513%13%

3-Termarr Johnson–

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwRC+BB%K%
AA.272/.404/.346.750.074.37012216.2%35.4%
Week.353/.421/.353.774.000.36111610.5%26.3%

4-Luis Ortiz-

IPERAFIPxFIPWHIPBB%K%
AAA32.12.233.624.410.968.7%22.8%
MLB20.24.355.425.241.6911.5%14.6%
MLB12.23.555.184.781.2619.2%11.5%

5-Quinn Priester-

IPERAFIPXFIPWHIPBB%K%
AAA45.14.963.473.971.4610.2%23.6%
Week1.227.0010.726.0037,5%18.8%

6-Liover Peguero–

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwRC+BB%K%
AA.255/.326/.412.738.158.3371019.8%17.4%
Week.154/.207/.231.438.077.203166.9%13.8%

7-Mike Burrow-(season over)

IPERAFIPxFIPWHIPBB%K%
AAA6.22.707.396.220.908%12%

8-Bubba Chandler–

IPERAFIPxFIPWHIPBB%K%
A346.625.935.421.9416.3%23.5%
Week4.21.934.941.934.3%30.4%

9-Jared Triolo–

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwWRC+BB%K%
A.250/.400/.327.727.077.3559920%23.1%
Week.333/.571/.389.960.056.47717735.7%21.4%

10-Jared Jones–

IPERAFIPxFIPWHIPBB%K%
AA28.12.543.223.751.208.4%27.7%
Week4.10.003.711.6214.3%23.8%

11-Yordany De Los Santos–No stats

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBPwRC+BB%K%
Week

12-Thomas Harrington–

IPERAFIPxFIPWHIPBB%K%
A392.773.763.861.108%26.7%
Week60.003.310.505%15%

13-Kyle Nicolas–

IPERAFIPxFIPWHIPPBB%K%
AA40.24.654.754.331.6210.1%25.5%
Week50.002.051.0010%30%

14-Colin Selby–

IPERAFIPxFIPWHIPBB%K%
AAA15.14.113.384.471.3016.2%29.4%
Week.154.0024.449.0040%20%

15-Carlos Jimenz-(NO STATS)

IPERAFIPxFIPBB%K%

MY FIVE

16-Anthony Solometo

IPERAFIPxFIPWHIPBB%K%
A+42.23.163.593.921.2012.9%27.1%
Week60.002.370.675%30%

17-Nick Gonzales

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwRC+BB%K%
AAA.247/.329/.418.747.171.321859.6%31.7%
Week.130/.200/.261.461.130.188-78%24%

18-Hudson Head

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwRC+BB%K%
A+.234/.295/.416.711.182.322916.7%28.2%
Week.188/.235/.375.6190.188274615.9%29.4%

19-Tsung -Che Cheng

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwRC+BB%K%
A+.288/.396/.554.950.180.42315314.9%19%
Week.333/.474/.5331.007.200.45917520%25%

20-Enmanuel Terrero

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwRC+BB%K%
A.290/.406/.407.813.117.39213515.4%23.3%
Week.263/.333/.263.596.000.300799.5%38.1%

A Few quick thoughts-

When I’m feeling blue…

Hudson continues to slide–this week marks two weeks in a row he’s been down. I’m still encouraged by his K rate, which remains under 30%. Hopefully this points to just being in a slump and not regression to his old ways. Fingers crossed. Mr. Head, do not let there be a 3rd week. Pretty please.

Quinn Priester really struggled to find the zone, and I mean he could have underhanded from a foot away and still threw a ball. Shower well, Quinn, and get back to work.

Nick and his boom stick? More like Nick and his gloom stick, amIright? Man, rough week for a guy trying to push his way to PNC Park on the quick.

My main man, Endy? Still my dude, and no worries. Over the last week I think he’s expanded his zone a tad, a clear indication Endy is starting to push a little and this is normal. Why do I like the kid so much? Walk rate is still a nice 11.7% and he has such a great feel for the strike zone. Breathe, Endy. Breathe and let’s start over again!

Peas and Carrots…

Solometo and Chandler. Chandler and Solometo. I get they were drafted together, but I just don’t get the people out there that insist on making us choose which one we like better. Me personally? I’m just enjoying that both Bubba and the Funky Cool Delivery had a good week.

Solometo followed up his 7 IP gem with a 6 inning, 6 K and no run performance. Of the two, it’s fair to say Anthony is ahead in his development. (That’s not picking sides, by the way. It just is what it is.)

While Solometo was busy putting together a few solid weeks, Chandler was busy rebounding from last week. Giving up two runs (one earned) over 4.2 and raking up 7 K’s is a good way to get that bad taste off the palate.

I just keep on keeping on…

Guys that continue to impress-

Thomas Harrington. Enmanuel Terrero. Tsung-Che Chen.

No more needs said with those guys. Keep on keepin’ on, boys.

Keeping up with the Joneses’

Ok, there’s just one Jones I’m referring to there, but still. Man, he is coming along. Striking out 27.7% of the hitters he stares down while doing a better job of getting outs when he needs to, he’s progressing and he’s not slowing down. I’m not suggesting he’s ready to jump a level or he should be a top 100 prospect–his WHIP needs to come down. He needs work on his punch out pitch, and he still has extended innings. I’m driving the band wagon, when you’re ready to jump on let me know.

Why are you still here?

I get what the Buccos are doing. I really do. Henry Davis needs work at C. He needs work in the OF. But his bat is ready to move up, and I’d go as far as to say his bat is close to MLB ready (if not actually ready). I really think it’s time the FO asks itself, “how much more developing can happen with Henry’s C glove?” At 23 he was an advanced C from a ‘calling the game’ and leadership side of it. At least as far as an NCAA catcher can be, anyway. When they drafted him, his ability to move side to side (or lack of it) was known. That the plan is to get him some OF play seems to acknowledge that the Bucs tend to agree.

If the FO truly believes they can improve his mobility from side to side, then stick to the plan. But a lot of the issues Davis has are issues that I think can only be worked on in the show. Leadership comes with experience. Calling a better game comes with working with an experienced staff and studying MLB hitters. Simply put, there are certain things that can’t be taught at AAA or AA.

The Pirates need to get Davis the work he needs in RF and they need to do it now. When he looks comfortable out there, give the man his airline tickets to Pittsburgh.

I think this will be a position many will be passionate about no matter what side of the fence you sit on. So please keep in mind, I’m not saying this should happen tomorrow. Davis needs innings in the OF while continuing to get some looks behind the dish. But it’s time they got a move on with the kid.

Joe Homers Against Former Team, Castro Crucial Base-Running Propel 2-1 Over Giants: (27-27)

05/31/2023 – By Ethan Smith – @mvp_Ethan on Twitter

The Pittsburgh Pirates fell below .500 for the first time since the opening weekend of the season on Memorial Day on Monday, but a Connor Joe homer against his former team and some big base-running from Rodolfo Castro propelling a 2-1 victory over the Giants on Tuesday night.

Joe’s homer came in the top of the first inning on a 3-2 count with two outs, giving the Pirates an early 1-0 lead, something they have struggled with as of late.

Michael Conforto came right back in the bottom of the first to tie things up on an RBI single to score Mike Yastrzemski against Johan Oviedo.

Oviedo would settle in for the remainder of his outing, going 4.1 IP while only allowing three hits. He struck out five and walked five, but did enough for the Pirates bullpen to lead the rest of the game.

The top of the fifth would be the difference as a Jason Delay single led to a fielding error from Mitch Haniger, putting Castro on third base. A Sean Manaea wild pitch would score Castro and ultimately be the difference.

Manaea pitched well, going four innings with one earned run after John Brebbia opened the game.

The bullpen group of Dauri Moreta, Jose Hernandez, Colin Holderman and David Bednar would combine to go four scoreless innings while only allowing two hits and one walk with four strikeouts.

Bednar would get the save in the ninth, picking up save number 10 in 11 tries.

The Pirates look for their last opportunity to win a series in May on Wednesday, as Mitch Keller faces off with Alex Wood.

News & Notes

  • Connor Joe homers against former team
  • Rodolfo Castro only Pirate to have multi-hit game
  • Dauri Moreta picks up second win of the season
  • Pirates move back to .500, game three vs Giants last chance to win a series in May

How The Pirates Got Here

https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-ep2yb-141ff0c

Craig and Chris discuss the first two months of the Pirates season, the possible causes for the bipolar play in May versus April and attempt to debunk two possible solutions that have been proposed to improve the team. 

Brought to you by ShopYinzz.com! Craig Toth covers the Pirates for Inside The Bucs Basement, and joins his buddy Chris at a 9-foot homemade oak bar to talk Pittsburgh Pirates Baseball. Listen. Subscribe. Share. We are “For Fans, By Fans & All Pirates Talk.” THE Pirates Fan Podcast found EVERYWHERE podcasts can be found and always at BucsInTheBasement.com! 

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five

5-29-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Take a breath.

Yup, they still aren’t playing good ball. A historic great start, immediately followed by a historic bad May.

Things fell off quickly, adjustments haven’t worked. Players that played great, suddenly can’t even play league average. Players that were underwhelming, well, they just flat out bombed out.

Listen, it’s late, it’s Memorial Day, and I’m a bit cranky from people I have always respected acting like children about a baseball team.

Here we go.

1. They Just Don’t Care

Venting. Hate Tweeting/commenting. Whatever, it is what it is.

This has been a thing for years now, and it’s something I’ve talked about from the very first word I typed.

They do care, they just aren’t ever, and I mean ever, going to “care” the way these people want them to. They aren’t ever going to sign that big free agent sure fire stud. They aren’t ever going to call up that prospect before he’s where they want him to be, or they get the extra year, or Super 2 or whatever you all have decided they’ve done to Travis Swaggerty when you get together in your conspiracy theory meetings.

This team entered a rebuild in the Winter of 2019. You can rightly say they sucked before that, and tell me when they should have started this process, or you can do all your magic math with no real published numbers to show me exactly how much money Bob Nutting is bathing in while not spending on his major league roster.

I won’t dispute a blessed word.

But this rebuild, the one we are currently watching them try to come out of started in the Winter of 2019 with the Starling Marte deal. he was shipped for two very young but very gifted prospects.

One of those prospects hasn’t stayed healthy for much of any of his time here, and the other is in AA, still trying to prove all the scouts are right.

Every deal, every waiver claim, every call up, every signing, has been about this rebuild.

What I hear when you say they don’t care, is that for you it is impossible to see “care” while not winning or competing for a playoff berth.

I get that entirely, I just disagree with it on it’s face.

So, tonight, let’s do this thing a little differently.

2. 2020

In 2020 the Pirates really made very few changes. They traded Starling Marte partially because he wanted to be traded, and partially because, entering his age 31 season in 2020, it wasn’t bloody likely he’d be here when the team won anything meaningful.

They could have kept him. It would have been more money on payroll. Some of you might have said they “care”. It’s not like I can sit here and tell you either prospect they received have helped the cause.

That said, the idea was, this guy won’t be here when we really think we can be good, he wants out, lets get some needed talent in this system because I don’t see much here on the surface that helps.

Then COVID hits.

None of the prospects get to play save a select few who this new management group and the few holdovers thought were guys they could use immediately.

Nobody knew what to do here. Nobody had enough familiarity with anyone to really judge many players, and now, nobody was going to play in 2020, so lets punt the idea, if you will, to 2021, that’s when actual, tangible system evaluation has to start.

The idea of keeping Adam Frazier, Josh Bell, Kevin Newman, Gregory Polanco, hell, even good ol’ Chris Archer was going to get a shot before he got hurt and the whole band was meant to be a good long half season of watching them play. Maybe Josh Bell, would impress and show himself a piece. He wanted it after all.

Terrible season. Everyone who was supposed to be a hitter, wasn’t. Everyone who was supposed to pitch, stunk. Nobody had time to warm to the task, epic failure of a season, all in the course of 60 weird, silent games, not even able to meet face to face with guys for fear of spreading something at the time everyone was freaking out about.

Nobody knew anything.

To say the least, 2020 didn’t go to plan, well, except the losing part. Not adding was purposeful. He knew the team stunk and I’m quite sure intended to clean house at the deadline of the season.

Never got the chance, so on to the off season.

3. 2021

Still not enough talent on the team or the system to really feel the team was going anywhere organically.

They could have spent right? The players said they wanted to keep the “core” together.

That Starting Rotation though, folks, I just don’t think it was going to happen. Coupled with just about the worst bullpen I ever saw, there was just too much to buy, and nothing to pull up.

But Cherington probably felt a bit antsy to do something. 2020 wasn’t really his ideal intro to the team and you’d have to imagine he probably feels a year behind.

After a terrible year, Josh Bell is traded. I could argue it was selling low, but teams have been doing that dance now with Josh Bell ever since. Is he Great? Is he just Good? Maybe he’s just a DH who slumps for 2 straight months every year.

He made the call, it wasn’t a good trade, hasn’t worked out, but again, Bell wasn’t in his eyes part of the solution.

Talent out, two guys back. One Wil Crowe, one a very young prospect with a big arm and a LONG way away if ever.

Joe Musgrove after a ton of work finally looked like a real starter, and coming on the end of team control The Pirates could have chosen to try and extend him. He was only 27 but again, this team in the mind of the general manager after moving Bell and Marte needed to focus on acquiring as much talent as possible.

They moved Musgrove instead. I could argue here had they extended him, they’d have a 30 year old, probably number 2 starter honestly, in his prime right now. If they didn’t make this move, they don’t have Endy Rodriguez or David Bednar. David is of course an all star closer and Endy is the Pirates number 1 prospect and hope for the catching position in the immediate future. Omar Cruz looks like a reliever at this point and Hudson Head, honestly, who knows quite yet.

The team stunk. Bryan Reynolds was good, and Tyler Anderson was good, and David Bednar was good.

The Pirates went shopping on the waiver wire and filled Spring training with Non-roster invites. Again, they could have decided, hey, let the fans have fun, let’s bring in some MLB talent and at least not make them suffer while we develop.

But he wasn’t done moving players. He knew it, and he knew it’d be nice if they got another high draft pick too.

You can hate that thinking, but it’s what this team was doing.

I’ve told you already several places I’d have at least considered breaking with the actions taken, or at least alternate ways to go, but this map was about as clear as a 1995 Trip Map from AAA.

4. 2022

OK.

Hey fans! Here is a signing of a guy you really liked watching in 2020 and hope wasn’t hitting the same because he was hurt in 2021. He’s like, a super awesome fielder and we really think he will hit again. We locked him up for a long time. See, we care, but about guys who we think will be here.

OK, well, that’s what the Ke’Bryan Hayes signing felt like to me.

The rotation had more promise this time. There was hope Mitch Keller was finally becoming the pitcher we hoped when he debuted way back when. JT Brubaker looked like a guy with a ton of plus pitches, and he was an innings horse, here’s hoping right?

Hey, they had Roansy right on the cusp too!

They brought in some other guys, traded a few more. More NRI’s. More little deals. Adam Frazier out for a package including Jack Suwinski, Marcano, you know, more guys who might be here to help when this team is better.

More than anything, Oneil Cruz was finally ready.

Could they have brought him up earlier and won more than 62 games? Probably.

Could they have spent some money and finally been easier to watch? I guess. I still think they weren’t close enough for it to be much more than adding extra people to trade, which has merit, but they chose what they chose.

It was a terrible season. Even Reynolds didn’t hit most of the season. Most nights you’d look at the lineup and wonder how they saw themselves scoring even a run. Most nights they showed you they didn’t see it either.

Bottomed out. 2021 was bad, but 2022 was bad with guys who were supposed to matter. Supposed to be here when it mattered.

5. 2023

Nothing was going to be better. They were going to stink, punt, tank, whatever you want to say, right?

We were staring down the barrel at a rotation with Mitch Keller who had shown some significant proof that he had figured out some things in 2022. JT Brubaker who was if nothing else good enough to eat innings and be this team’s number 5 starter. Roansy Contreras entering a year with no innings restrictions, ready to pick up where he left off. Rich Hill and Vince Velasquez were both brought in as vets, but we all had them as stinking or out by the deadline anyway so let’s skip the the AAA level!

Mike Burrows is as ready a pitching prospect as the Pirates have had since probably Contreras. Boom. TJ.

Luis Ortiz has a big arm, but control isn’t his friend and he needs a third pitch. Seems to have worked on it a ton in the off season.

Quinn Priester, a top prospect who might finally be getting close to a shot.

We were going to get a full season of Oneil Cruz! A full season of Castro and Suwinski getting even more at bats to show how that power translates.

Bae was going to get a chance after exciting the masses in 2022 when he was called up.

They decided it was time to put some veteran help around what’s here and coming soon.

Ji-man Choi, Carlos Santana, Hill, Velasquez, Hedges, Cutch and Joe all come in along with Garcia in the pen.

It’s a more talented team, a more experienced team.

They come out swinging, and running and pitching and feeding off each other. Beating everyone, good, bad, great, whatever, you ran into the Bucs, you were meat.

Then May.

Everything opposite.

You’d think Choi, and Vince and Cruz, and Brubaker, and well, you’d think all that happened on April 30th, but nope.

This is a team that experienced belief. They were all feeling it, all believing it, everyone had a role, everyone was important.

Guys who weren’t hitting, who cares, we need the glove and everyone else is killing it!

Guys who weren’t pitching, hey, who cares, it was just Crowe, he always stunk right?

They signed Reynolds to an extension and almost immediately, everything fell apart.

No, I’m not trying to draw any correlation. Reynolds extending didn’t cause the team to freefall.

That’s a lot of injury to sustain for a good team. It’s an overwhelming amount for a team destined to be in the .500 conversation if they played well.

So call up all these kids right? Where’s the cavalry?

Well, Ortiz is here, and because Vince is hurt again, he’ll stay here. The Pirates were just going to put Contreras in the pen to retool a bit (like they did with Keller in 2022) but they’ll now have to keep him in the rotation I’d imagine.

Quinn is likely not ready to debut, but folks we’re one twisted ankle away from seeing something like that, or, we’ll start to see MLB scrapple for a minute.

I know, you want Endy, and you want Davis.

Fine.

As I’ve written before, that’s ok with me. I don’t even care if they catch and aren’t good at it. How’s that? I mean it, I’m all for calling up kids, but y’all have a bit too much faith that they’re going to come up here and just dominate MLB. Like, have you watched this game? You know how rare that is right?

I can’t even pretend to know they’d stick. Not on their first call up anyway.

Again, I’m all for giving them a shot to help out here. But, I have much less faith that two bats are going to make someone swing a bat when they have a runner at third and less than 2 outs. Tangibly, they can only replace one each.

One will be Hedges, so, even if they stink, probably a win right? The other will likely come at someone in the outfield like Joe, or Bae, maybe Marcano, perhaps Cutch at times. Big deal, that’s fine too.

I just don’t see 2 guys being called up as the barometer for caring. In fact, if this mofo came out in public and told us hey, I’m calling up Henry and Endy right friggin’ now. Enough of this losing, time to turn this ship around and these two will get that done.

Folks I’d laugh out loud.

Yet that’s all anyone spews on social media. Call up these guys or you don’t care. Maybe they just don’t think it’s really going to help enough, or stick with me here, maybe they think for some of the guys they have pitching it just might do some damage.

What else can they do though? They’ve had their depth decimated by injury, and most of what they have is at least less than a sure thing upon call up. I mean, we can be that honest right?

Trade? To whom? Oakland? They’re about the only team ready to say they’re out right yet. Come July, maybe.

I just want to know, without going back to the preseason because that’s just being captain hindsight, what exactly is caring?

A month ago that was signing Reynolds. In Spring it was bringing Travis Swaggerty and Ortiz and Endy North with the team, cause yinz said, that’s why.

Now it’s Endy and Henry. Next it’ll be Priester (give him one more good start, you’ll see). Then it’ll be Peguero, cause he’s been good for a couple weeks. Then it’ll be Gonzales because his K rate is now below 30%.

Get the point?

It’ll always be something. And that’s what this year is going to be.

Seeing kids get chances. Seeing kids fail or succeed at chances. Wondering who is and isn’t a part of this.

This is a very extreme path to .500, and it is step one on the way to learning how to win.

So is the losing.

Here’s what happened.

The team had a historic hot streak to start the season. Then they turned south directly. If that hot streak came say July 13th through the 26th, um, you can have all the do they don’t they care conversations you want, because “doing something” would be very much so right there as both obvious and plausible.

On Memorial Day in 2023, baseball trades aren’t fixing this.

The team has shown you, and themselves how good they can be. They followed that by showing their floor. Look for them to find a way back to the middle and hope Oneil Cruz is this year’s best Deadline acquisition.

Giant Innings Doom Pirates, Lose 14-4 (26-27)

5/29/23- By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on Twitter

The Giants dropped 5 runs on starter Rich Hill in the 2nd and pushed across 8 runs against reliever Cody Bolton in the 7th en route to a thrashing against the Bucs in the series opener. The loss moved the Pirates to a game under .500 for the first time in 8 weeks.

Everything that could go wrong did go wrong as the Pirates struggled on defense, had inconsistent pitching and couldn’t string together hits – which has been their unfortunate anthem during this disappointing month of May, where they have dropped 18 of 24 games.

News & Notes

  • Tucupita Marcano notched his first 3-hit game of the season – and the third of his career – as he is now posting a .284/.351/.500 triple slash over 36 games this season
  • Jack Suwinski hit a pair of home runs into McCovey Cove. He became the third Pirate to put one into the cove after Adam Laroche (8/11/07) and Garrett Jones (8/22/13). It was Suwinski’s 2nd multi-homer game in the past week and third one of the season.
  • The game got so out of hand that the Pirates turned to position player Chris Owings to handle the 8th inning. First time the Pirates used a position player to pitch since July 6, 2022 – when Josh VanMeter pitched against the Yankees.
  • Pirates try to right the ship with game 2 tomorrow night with Johan Oviedo on the mound. First pitch is scheduled for 9:45pm. Let’s Go Bucs!

Big Arcing Home Runs and Offensive Slumps Lead Bucs To Another Series Loss (26-26)

5/28/23- By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on Twitter

Luis Ortiz struggled to get into a rhythm, Pirates hitters couldn’t get to soft-tossing southpaw Marco Gonzales and fell short in extras as they drop the rubber match 6-3. Ortiz gave up high solo home runs to Julio Rodriguez and Cal Raleigh.

Ortiz rebounded to manage 5 innings with 5 hits, 3 runs and 6 strikeouts as he generated 14 swings and misses, but he allowed 4 walks in the outing. The third run scored off a Jarred Kelenic double to left in the 5th inning.

Pirates got a run on a sacrifice fly from Austin Hedges in the 5th, an RBI triple from Bryan Reynolds in the 8th which scored Andrew McCutchen from second. Reynolds would score on a wild pitch to Jack Suwinski, which tied the game.

Bullpen was shutting it down for the Pirates, forcing extra innings after Roansy Contreras, Colin Holderman and David Bednar threw a combined 4 innings and allowed just 1 hit against 4 strikeouts; however, the Pirates were unable to capitalize with men on 1st and 3rd and no outs in the 10th inning and the Mariners responded against reliever Robert Stephenson with a big three-run blast from Eugenio Suarez to take the game 6-3.

News & Notes

  • Cutch started in the outfield for the first time since April 13.
  • Both Rodriguez and Raleigh had launch angles of 43 degrees that each barely made it out. 
  • Contreras pitched out of the pen for the first time this season and looked solid once he settled in. 
  • Carlos Santana left the game in the 6th inning with reported lumbar spine muscular tightness. We are still awaiting further details but unlikely it will be a long-term issue at this point.
  • Ke’Bryan Hayes struck out 4 times in the game, including a bases-loaded K in the top of the 10th inning. He went 1-for-18 in the series with his Friday home run standing as his lone hit.
  • Ji-hwan Bae made a PHENOMENAL catch that prevented extra bases in the bottom of the 9th
  • Pirates head to San Francisco to face the Giants. First pitch is at 5:05PM. Let’s Go Bucs!