Christian Wolf normally mans these pieces but I grabbed this one so he could enjoy some time with his family. It’s fitting since Craig and I will be at the game tonight anyway.
Both these teams are reeling a bit and looking for a recovery series. Each team is 5-5 in their last ten. The Blue Jays coming off 5 straight losses, including a 4 game sweep at the hands of the Boston Red Sox, the Pirates on a 4 game losing streak and suffered their own sweep to the Tampa Bay Rays.
When & Who:
Toronto Blue Jays (18-14) at Pittsburgh Pirates (20-12)
Game 1 – (5/5, 6:35 EST)
Probable Pitchers:
For the Blue Jays – Chris Bassitt (3-2, 5.18 ERA)
For the Pirates – Rich Hill (3-2, 4.18 ERA)
Game 2 – (5/6, 6:35 EST)
Probable Pitchers:
For the Blue Jays – Jose Berrios (2-3, 5.29 ERA)
For the Pirates – Johan Oviedo (2-2, 4.78 ERA)
Game 3 – (5/7, 1:35 EST)
Probable Pitchers:
For the Blue Jays – Yusei Kikuchi (4-0, 4.02 ERA)
For the Pirates – Roansy Contreras (3-2, 4.09 ERA)
Team Trends
The Blue Jays are a talented team, but starting pitching has not been as strong as they’d like. Just in their recent series with Boston they were out-hit 58-32, and outscored 32-19. The Blue Jays have been susceptible to the stolen base allowing 9 in their last series alone to go along with 6 fielding errors and a bullpen that is absolutely gassed. I’d be shocked if they didn’t make a move or two either before this series or during to reinforce the staff a bit.
The Pirates, well, they had very similar issues didn’t they? Errors, next to no timely hitting including a robust 1-20 with RISP. The bullpen remains fairly fresh for the Pirates, but lacking a long man wears on this staff when a to this point rare short start crops up. Overall, the starters have continued to hold their own, even overcoming some of the disarray happening behind them, but it’s certainly been a stressful stretch.
Who’s Hot
For the Blue Jays – Matt Chapman: He’s been incredible. On the season he’s hitting .351 and has 31.35 Runs Created. The Red Sox managed to cool him off a little, but not enough for me to insinuate he’s less than on a tear.
For the Pirates – Connor Joe: Joe just continues to take quality at bats, one after the other. 3-12 isn’t usually something to brag about, but in that Tampa series and considering he got robbed a couple times smoking the baseball, he deserves this mark more than most.
Who’s Not
For the Rays – Brandon Belt: The Jays Designated Hitter has been anything but. in 70 plate appearances he’s only managed 11 hits. Batting .172 with a .243 OBP and an OPS of only .524, he’s easily been the most disappointing offensive player for Toronto.
For the Pirates – Ke’Bryan Hayes: In his last 27 at bats, Ke’ has come up with 4 hits, 1 a double. He was moved down in the lineup in yesterday’s contest from leadoff to 7th. We’ll have to see if that is a one game adjustment for an opponent or something we’ll see Derek Shelton continue. He’s simply not getting it done.
Series Overview & Prediction
As I said at the top, two struggling teams, both with good records. One will jump back on the horse, one won’t. I very much so doubt this is a sweep in either direction but you’d like to think the Pirates at home would have the edge.
Toronto fans travel well to Pittsburgh so I expect quite a bit of blue mixed in with black and gold for this series, but with the Pirates record, it shouldn’t be as overwhelming as it’s been in recent years.
As ever, it’s all about the pitching, and I like the Pirates chances to stay out of trouble against a very offensively gifted team and get to their staff.
I’ll say the Bucs take 2 of 3 from the Jays, but it won’t feel in any way like a roll over series.
5-4-23 By Craig W. Toth (aka @BucsBasementon Twitter)
Every since Ben Cherington and Company took over Baseball Operations at 115 Federal Street, each move the Pirates make ultimately finds itself under the proverbial microscope. Whether it’s a trade, draft selection, Minor League addition, waiver claim, international signing or Rule 5 pick, Cherington is constantly placed on a cover-slip; in order to be examined.
Obviously as a General Manager, this is part of the job; especially for a team with such focus on it, as he guides them through a rebuild.
Pirates Fans and media members alike analyze individuals as they either arrive or leave the Pirates Organization; trying to figure out if the Pirates had found or lost something during these transactions.
For me trades, the MLB Draft and the International Signing Period are in the top tier when it comes to these decisions. In a distant second are Minor League signings, that can be used as depth in Triple and Double-A; or in some cases, trying to give players a second chance to prove themselves. Even further down the list in an A/B situation would be waiver claims and the Rule 5 Draft.
So, why am I choosing to focus on what is usually the bottom of the lineup when it comes to ways to acquire-or give up-talent?
Well, even though there may be some recency bias, this past year’s Rule 5 Draft just feels a little bit different. And, based on the results thus far it would be hard to argue against this perception.
Even prior to the start of the season, I saw Ben Cherington possible diverging from the norm, as far as how lefty reliever Jose Hernandez would be deployed.
Sure, some of this was forced by the injury to Jarlin Garcia, and Rob Zastryzny subsequently ending up on the IL as well; yet, even his acquisition was a break from the standard.
So far it has worked out; and not just at the Majors.
On the season Jose Hernandez-who Pittsburgh selected 3rd Overall-has a 1.98 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP with 14 strikeouts and 2 walks over 13.2 innings; and just allowed his first homer last night, with another solo shot today.
Meanwhile, in the Minors, Josh Palacios has been on an absolute tear in Indianapolis since his promotion from Altoona almost two weeks ago.
Across 9 games and 40 plate appearances, Palacios has slashed .412/.500/.912 with 4 homers, 3 doubles and a triple; on his way to being named the International League Player of the Week.
Now, if we are going to talk about the positives, there is always another side of the coin that I know is on some Pirates Fans minds.
Exactly one pick after Hernandez came off the board to the Pirates, Blake Sabol went out the door to the Cincinnati Reds. Shortly, after being selected the San Francisco Giants traded for Sabol; giving the Reds cash considerations; along with a player to be named later.
To the hardcore Pirates Prospect Junkies, Sabol was one of their darlings; after he hit .284 with an .859 OPS and 19 homers across Altoona and Indianapolis, while filling in at catcher in Henry David’ absence, and roaming the outfield.
Seen as a player that probably would be selected-following the Arizona Fall League-Sabol somewhat surprisingly made the Giants Opening Day Roster; contributing in big spots on occasion.
For the year he is batting .235 with a .758 OPS and homers; good for a positive WAR both on Baseball Reference (0.2) and Fangraphs (0.4).
Undoubtedly it is early in the season, and things can quickly change. However for now, it has been a pretty eventful year as far as the Rule 5 Draft and the Pirates are concerned.
05/04/2023 – By Ethan Smith – @mvp_Ethan on Twitter
May the Fourth Be With You All.
Despite a valiant effort in the top of the ninth to bring the game within one run, the Pittsburgh Pirates were swept in their first series this season at the hands of the MLB best Tampa Bay Rays.
The big story from this game came early on as Vince Velasquez removed himself from the contest after the third inning in what appeared to be another strong outing for him, but right elbow discomfort would sideline him for the remainder of the game and the Pirates had to turn to the bullpen.
Tampa Bay opened the scoring in the bottom of the second with a solo shot from Taylor Walls. They would add another homer in the bottom of the fourth off of Jose Hernandez courtesy of Randy Arozarena, making it 2-0 through four.
Yandy Diaz would add another solo shot to the Thursday count for Tampa Bay in the bottom of the eighth, making it 3-0 and would become a much bigger deal than we anticipated.
Carlos Santana would pick up an RBI double to score Tucupita Marcano and Bryan Reynolds, making the game 3-2. Both Andrew McCutchen and Connor Joe had chances to tie or give the Pirates the lead, but Jason Adam would strikeout both McCutchen and Joe to secure the series sweep for the Rays and extend the Pirates losing streak to four games, their longest losing streak of the season thus far.
Pittsburgh heads home to PNC Park tomorrow to start a three game set with the Toronto Blue Jays as Chris Bassitt will face off with Rich Hill.
News & Notes
Vince Velasquez leaves game in third inning with right elbow discomfort
Pirates losing streak extended to four games
Pirates still remain in lead in NL Central despite series sweep
When the Pirates are playing a team of the Rays caliber, they don’t have to be perfect; although it would be nice. They simply have to avoid the types of mistakes that have plagued them over the past few seasons; especially when they seem to come in bunches, or during the most inopportune times.
In the bottom of the third, Mitch Keller got two quick outs before allowing a single to Yandy Diaz. At this point, it seemed as if this would be a harmless single; especially with how well Keller had been pitching. However, after another sharply hit single by Wander Franco-that could have at least been knocked down by Ji-hwan Bae, and was ultimately muffed by Miguel Andujar-it was first and third.
No harm, no foul right?
Not so fast.
As Rodolfo Castro went to field a fairly routine bouncing grounder off the bat of Harold Ramirez, he simply misplayed it; allowing the tying run to cross the plate.
And then-right one cue-Brandon Lowe would double, to give the Rays a 3-1 lead; when it still should/could have been 1-0 Pirates, headed to the top of the 4th.
Obviously, it’s frustrating to see this happen; however, it appears that there was was no one more frustrated in The Trop tonight than Derek Shelton as he emerged from the dugout; with Bae on first and Austin Hedges at the plate.
Quite the sequence here between the umpires and Pirates manager, Derek Shelton, who gets ejected. pic.twitter.com/44YKzMwrqJ
Clearly Shelton was aggravated with the umpiring crew from the previous night, which boiled over into today. And, at apparently the crew wasn’t happy with him, or his coaching staff.
Add in a couple of solo homers, and an RBI double, as the Pirates fell to the Rays by a score of 8 to 1.
News & Notes
Cutch has been a bit of a slump over the pasts couple of weeks. Across his last 57 plate appearances-prior to tonight-Cutch had a .196/.263/.412 slash line with a 74 wRC+. Which is why it was so nice to see him take one deep off Shane McClanahan in the 1st.
If Cutch has a million fans, I'm one of them. If Cutch has one fan, I'm that one fan. If Cutch has no fans, I'm not here anymore. pic.twitter.com/ReJ2CfH9TX
As well as Keller was pitching he didn’t deserve a the loss; especially with the pitching line of 5IP/5H/5R/1ER/1BB/8K.
Not sure how there won’t be any repercussions for an ump telling a manager, “F-you”. I mean with Major League Baseball anything is possible, but it’s hard to imagine getting away with this one.
Along with poor fundamentals, the Pirates are also 0 for 17 with Runners In Scoring Position over the past two days.
The Pirates look to avoid the sweep in St. Petersburg tomorrow at 1:10 PM. For Pittsburgh Vince Velasquez (4-2/3.06 ERA/1.18 WHIP) takes the mound against Zach Eflin (3-0/3.00 ERA/1.14) for Tampa Bay.
We’re in the midst of a real measuring stick week. The Pirates are facing the Rays and Blue Jays in back to back 3 game sets and while it won’t tell us how far this team could go, it might show us and them, they still have work to do.
Lets dig in to some really good questions this week!
Question 1
Do you see a long-term position for Bae, and if so where (What do you see as his ceiling)? Do you see the play of Connor Joe staying consistent, and if so could you see an outfield of Reynolds, Suwinski and Joe for the foreseeable future, or, could Joe become the everyday first baseman? – Mark Witzberger
Well Mark, let’s start with Joe. Connor is the very definition of consistent, he’ll take a good, professional at bat every time up, and he’s honestly done that for a couple years so I’d have to say, it’s pretty real. What has changed is he’s hitting the ball harder in 2023, and that changes what his ability to stick should be seen as.
I think Joe has made himself a player the team simply has to think about in terms of owning a roster spot. I’m not to the point where I need him to be a nailed on 150 game starter, but 90-100? Absolutely. Seeing him at first base, that’s interesting. It’s far too early to pronounce Malcom Nunez dead, but he certainly has had a rough start to his AAA season, in 22 games he’s hitting .188 with a .490 OPS. The Pirates have also played with Matt Gorski at first base, and for what it’s worth, Mason Martin is still there too. Realistically, at 37 Carlos Santana is someone they could potentially decide to try to keep for another season too. All that said, Joe looks like he can handle the position, I just don’t think he has enough power, and it’s hard for me to envision a winning lineup that has Hayes and Joe on the corners. I’m not arguing either are poor players, but those are still positions that should provide some pop.
Now, Bae. Aside from Travis Swaggerty, I don’t think the Pirates have a clear cut CF. Jack Suwinski is an option too. From an athleticism standpoint, Bae can be really good and get plenty of at bats from grabbing up multiple spots covering injury or just being a true super utility type, but what Bae provides at the plate (yes I know he’s struggled lately) might be too much to not play. Ceiling? Well, the Pirates, and I still believe there is more power there. Not 20 a year, but 10-15 if he picks and chooses times to cut it loose. That combined with his elite speed and ability to disrupt on the basepaths, man, he’d be hard to not have in your lineup most days. So to me, his ceiling is a starter, where hardly matters. His floor, is a Super Utility player who still gets enough at bats to matter.
If I had to pick a spot where I’d like to see Bae stick, I’d go with CF, if for nothing else, they simply don’t have that speed element without him and he can eat a ton of territory. With reps come consistency, and I hope, fewer brain fart plays that are the calling card of so so many rookies.
Good questions…
Question 2
What is going on with Holderman? Yes it’s a long season, yes there will be occasional rough games. We’re all human obviously, but it feels his last few appearances he’s pressing, overthrowing and or compensating for something as his control hasn’t been what it was. Has there been any report involving him? – J.w. Sanders
Honestly J.w., Colin is a stuff guy, not a control guy. In his short career, keep in mind he’s only thrown 41 innings in MLB at this point, he has 18 walks vs 36 Ks. This season he has that ratio at 4 walks and 12 strikeouts.
A patient hitter is always going to give him trouble. Think Liriano from back in the day, once the league realized he was going to play out of the zone a large percentage of the time, they kinda just quit swinging, and there is a bit of that to Holderman too. The difference this year has been, he can indeed command his fastball, well, most nights anyhow.
The thing is, Colin is still a bit of a project, but I’ll remind here, so was Clay Holmes and while I can’t speak for what you thought of him J.w., I sure can tell you it was pretty lonely on the island of Clay Holmes truthers. Stuff that big lanky guys like that have just plays different. the angle messes with hitters, and it messes with umps too. As he matures I expect the team to develop ways for Holderman to create a “safe pitch” meaning one that he can harness entirely when he absolutely needs to get in the zone.
Not unlike what they’ve tried to accomplish with Dauri Moreta. He too is wild, but they’ve found a calming effect in his 2-seam, it resets him in a way and allows him to find the zone when missing it is absolutely not something he can afford. Watch him closely, his velo will drop 3-4 MPH, the pitch darts a bit less, and boom, in the zone. Obviously there’s a balance there between getting a strike and getting hammered, but that’s kinda the challenge of pitching by nature no?
Long story short, Holderman will be fine. He’s hardly their biggest issue.
Question 3
How do you see the bench shaking out over the next month or so? Mathias strict platoon vs LHP? – PNC Yark (@eYARKulation)
Man Yark, tough question. To answer this best, let me start by saying, I have to assume everyone stays healthy. Injuries will have a bigger say in the bench than anything. For instance, should Hayes get injured, Mark Mathias might very well be asked to hold down 3rd.
I don’t believe they see Mathias as a guy who can only hit against lefties, I just think right now, they don’t see him as a starter when they have viable and important bats from the left side they need to play just about everywhere he does. The addition of Andujar in many ways creates the same situation the club had with Smith-Njigba, from the other side. Someone is just not going to play regularly. It could be Andujar, or Mathias. I’d rather have Mathias’ glove in almost any situation.
For me the bench is going to remain Marcano, Joe, Andujar and Mathias in some form of rotation. If Joe doesn’t cool, it’s really a 3 man bench (disregarding catcher) and those three will play when analytics says they should or starters are tired AF. You could even toss Bae in there. He’s hardly secured a full time starting role.
I don’t want to put words in your mouth, but when I read a question like this, I really see, “who is getting called up for the bench, cause I don’t see a starter coming”, and honestly, I think there is some truth to that. In fact, when Endy is called up I am just about 100% sold they’ll keep 3 catchers, which will change the bench quite a bit. His bat is ready, but 6 weeks isn’t going to have his glove where this franchise wants their catcher to be. More on this later, I think I have some catching prospect questions.
Question 4
With Henry Davis raking as much as he is in AA do you call him up instead of Endy or would you want him to experience AAA first? – John (@JGor492)
I know they want both Henry Davis and Endy Rodriguez catching as much as possible but realistically how much longer can they keep Henry in Altoona? – Tyler Hernley (@hernleyt)
I don’t, and they won’t, care if he experiences AAA. They will care that he’s not on the 40-man, and they don’t believe either of them can at this time handle a starting role as the MLB catcher for the Pittsburgh Pirates.
As I mentioned a bit in Yark’s question, I’m increasingly convinced when they do call up Endy it’ll be because they want his bat and they ultimately won’t be ready to have him start behind the dish a large percentage of games. I think they’ll use his position flexibility to work his bat in, and toss him a game or 2 a week behind the dish until he earns some trust. Not with the team, as much as the staff.
Henry is in just about the same boat honestly, he’s just a year behind. We’re talking here about a kid who has only played 84 games of minor league ball. Forget level, let’s just talk actual volume of games behind the dish, that’s 57. 57 games where Henry has been back there doing all the things you as a fan know this franchise values in the catching position.
In those games, he’s allowed 42 stolen bases, with a caught stealing % of 14. He, and Endy both, have work to do to become starting level catchers. In fact, this will likely play out even beyond 2023.
I’ll say now, what I said at the beginning of the season and honestly, I’d be shocked if I was wrong here. Endy will come up in June/July, Davis will go to AAA then. That’s a month or two from now and honestly, baseball execs don’t get swayed by a guy hitting for 10 days all that often anyway. Neither should you, but that’s for another day.
After that, Davis could earn a cup of coffee late in the year, but if this team is in contention, don’t look for much of that type of thing. These moves in today’s game are more about the inevitability of needing to protect guys come December, so that’s players such as Priester, Gonzales, so Davis would have to play his way into it or see the position decimated by injury.
Look, Austin Hedges can’t hit. That’s not why he was brought here, that my friends is how very much they value the actual catching aspect of the position. Over time Endy and Davis will take over but that time doesn’t need to be now, and it certainly doesn’t need to be forced. They are staggered for the express purpose of getting them reps, so Endy being a DH while his arm gets right, not all that helpful.
I don’t talk to nearly as many prospects as Craig does, but I can honestly say, neither of these guys are super clean back there yet, and pitchers, well, let’s just say when they don’t have to be “team guys” will tell you there is enough to work on.
My advice to everyone on this is to look forward to Endy, he’s clearly ahead, and his 40 man status will ensure he remains there for this season. Henry will make his case starting in June/July as to the cup of coffee and next year, just about everything you think today about Endy, you can transfer to the 2024 discussions surrounding Davis.
Also, let me remind everyone, Kyle Schwarber came up as a catching prospect. If the bat plays, they’ll find a way to use them. If one of them turns out to be a truly quality starting catcher and the other winds up being a first baseman or DH or whatever, it’ll be ok. At the moment though, the team wants to work to develop both back there, let’s face it, they’re much more valuable if they pan out than if they don’t at a premium defensive position. Being impatient about getting their bats up here would stunt that effort. I can envision a world where the two of them split time back there and play elsewhere to keep the bat in the lineup eventually, but bluntly, I’m not sure Henry’s personality will allow him to be less than THE guy back there. I legitimately think he cares more about becoming a good catcher than a good baseball player.
There’s a reason there are so few truly great catchers who hit the hell out of the ball too, bats get moved to keep them healthy and playing more. Even more rarely do you see a rookie step in and take over the starting role. MLB catchers are extensions of the coaching staff for many teams, and on this team in particular, they’ve 100% drank the Kool-aid that this is the model they’d like to follow.
Want to say they’re dumb, ok, but look at this starting rotation and try to convince yourself they’d be here with a rookie catching.
Question 5
Who would you rather extend, Keller or Contreras? – Shaun Conley (@shaunpconley)
Not fair Shaun, I want both.
My priority though, is 100% Keller. Much like Reynolds, he was here the whole time developing into an important part of this core, and I’d like to see them lock him up for 5-6 years.
The team only has 2 years left with Keller, and you don’t need me to tell you that timing is horrible. If he was say under team control through 2027, ok, I can see maybe just letting it play out for a while, but where he is, I can’t see taking that out of the mix.
Question 6
Until Cruz gets back, do you want to see Castro as the primary SS, or would you like to see someone else get real innings at that position? – Whisky Rebel (@ProtonPirate)
I see Castro as the primary SS, for sure. In fact, I could see Cruz being ready to hit and run before he’s ready to handle the side to side, bending flexing action that the SS position requires when he is healthy. Castro is a very talented fielder, and I think only a few weeks into this thing, you can clearly see he’s handling it far better than he did when he manned the position in 2022 before Cruz was promoted.
He looks controlled, he’s making a lot of good decisions, plays well with Hayes, and he hasn’t been effected by the merry go round at second base. The bat more than plays, and honestly, if we didn’t have Cruz, we’d probably be glowing about Rodolfo as he continues to develop there.
Bluntly, it’s not even his best position, he’s a better 3B than SS, and probably a better 2B than SS too, but for now, he’s taken ownership of his best friend’s spot and I don’t see him letting it go.
Of course he’s going to need days off, and Tucapita Marcano is in my estimation the team’s best alternative at the moment. Bae can hang there, but it’s not something you’d want to see regularly.
If there were an injury I think they’d give Marcano a shot to take hold, and Peguero would have to be the next as far as truly filling the role goes.
Craig and Chris discuss the contracts that have been signed, talent that has been identified and acquisitions that have been made, as well as the steps that the Pirates are taking off the field to generate revenue.
Brought to you by ShopYinzz.com! Craig Toth covers the Pirates for Inside The Bucs Basement, and joins his buddy Chris at a 9-foot homemade oak bar to talk Pittsburgh Pirates Baseball. Listen. Subscribe. Share. We are “For Fans, By Fans & All Pirates Talk.” THE Pirates Fan Podcast found EVERYWHERE podcasts can be found and always at BucsInTheBasement.com!
05/02/2023 – By Ethan Smith – @mvp_Ethan on Twitter
The Pittsburgh Pirates got a bit of their own medicine on Tuesday night against the MLB best Tampa Bay Rays, as aggressive base running and taking advantage of opportunities propelled the Rays to a 4-1 win over the Pirates in game one of this highly anticipated series.
Three scoreless innings kicked things off, but Harold Ramirez(former Pirates minor leaguer), would kick off the scoring in the bottom of the fourth with an RBI single to score Randy Arozerena on a hard hit ball past Rodolfo Castro. Ke’Bryan Hayes would cap off the fourth inning with a beautiful 360-spin out at third, showcasing why he earned Sports Info Solutions Best Defender in the month of April.
— Justice delos Santos (@justdelossantos) May 2, 2023
The fifth inning would come and Hayes fired a 113 mph shot right off Josh Fleming’s foot, this coming after Fleming’s impressive behind-the-back snag earlier in the game.
Fleming would be removed from the game, finishing with 3.1 IP, 2 H, 3 BB and 1 SO after coming in for opener Javy Guerra, who would only pitch 0.2 innings with two walks.
Bryan Reynolds would double, putting Hayes at third with no outs and putting the Pirates in business. Andrew McCutchen would strikeout, followed by a Carlos Santana fly ball to Jose Siri, who has one of the best arms in CF in baseball, and after a lengthy review to see if Hayes touched home plate, the call stood as safe as home, tying the game at one.
Wander Franco, following a costly miscommunication on a pop-up by Castro and Jack Suwinski, hit into a double play in his first two plate appearances but would regain the Rays lead in the bottom of the fifth on an RBI single. Siri and Franco would perfectly execute a first-and-third steal to add to the lead, making it 3-1.
The top of the sixth featured, well um, a lot. Austin Hedges was visibly upset after what appeared to be a clear balk with runners on second and third, ending with a Hedges strikeout and a Hayes strikeout on another questionable strike call, something that became a theme in this one.
Ramirez would homer in the bottom of the sixth, chasing Contreras, who would finish with 5.1 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 4 BB and 3 SO. Dauri Moreta would clean up in the sixth, leaving the inning with a 4-1 Rays advantage.
Moreta would also close out the seventh to keep the deficit at three, struggling at times with the zone but working a double play to end the inning.
The final two innings were relatively quiet as Yohan Ramirez would keep the Pirates within three, but nothing materialized for the Pirates offensively resulting in the loss.
Mitch Keller is on the mound tomorrow to face Shane McClanahan.
News & Notes
Roansy Contreras final line: 5.1 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 3 BB
Javy Guerra was an opener in this game for the Rays
Josh Fleming final line: 3.1 IP, 2 H, 0 ER ,3 BB, 1 SO
This past Saturday I arrived at the ball field at 8 AM for my youngest’s Modified T-Ball Game-that was scheduled for 10 AM-to see how much damage the rain from the previous day had done to the dirt surround the bases; as well as the state of the dugout drains.
What I found were lakes around first, third and home; in addition to a clogged drain in the home dugout, that caused a river to run through it.
An hour and forty-five minutes later, with the help of my little ballplayer and his older brother-assisted by a few fellow coaches-the field was game ready; and the kids could actually use the dugout for something other than swimming.
Now picture this on a much grander scale; encompassing all of the Pirates Minor League Affiliates.
This past week not one team-from Bradenton to Greensboro and Altoona to Indianapolis-was able to escape the wrath of Mother Nature; each having at least one game postponed or canceled due to inclement weather.
Still, there was more than enough baseball played in order to compile this week’s list; and even give us a few bonus players to take a look at.
1) Henry Davis-C (Altoona)
With the recent injury to Top Catching Prospect Endy Rodriguez-he’s back DH-ing by the way-Davis has leapt back onto the radar of Pirates Fans.
Yet, it’s not like he won’t need his bat to get to Pittsburgh, so let’s take a peek.
Currently he holds a .273/.452/.655 slash line with 6 homers, a 207 wRC+ and an equal 20.5% walk to strikeout rate across 73 plate appearances.
It goes without saying that this is impressive, however, I could see Ben Cherington and Company letting Davis cook until he can move him up to Triple-A; likely when Endy gets promoted to Pittsburgh.
2) Anthony Solometo-LHP (Greensboro)
This past week, the Pirates 20 year-old lefty Prospect didn’t allow a single run, while striking out 6 and surrendering just two hits over 4 innings of work; lowering his ERA to 3.86 and his WHIP to 1.33 on the season.
Nevertheless, it should be noted that he has continued to struggle with control at times, walking 3 batters in consecutive starts; bringing his yearly total to 13 in 21.1 innings-or more succinctly put, 5.57 batters per every 9.
Clearly, Solometo needs to improve upon this. Yet, I will remind you once again that he is just 20 years-old.
3) Nick Dombkowski-LHP (Altoona)
I have been questioned several times about the year and round Dombkowski was drafted in.
Every time I give the answer, the person asking me is surprised to find out he wasn’t.
Signed by the Pirates as a Non-Drafted Free Agent on July 20th of 2021-following the draft-from the University of Hartford, Dombkowski almost immediately reported to the Low-A Bradenton Marauders for the final month of the season. In 18.2 innings-across 11 appearances-the lefty reliever posted a 3.86 ERA and a 1.018 WHIP with 23 strikeouts and 6 walks.
Then to begin 2022 Dombkowski found himself back in Bradenton for the first 10.2 inning of the year. During this time he struck out 19 batters and walked only 2 on his way to a 1.69 ERA, a .844 WHIP; ultimately earning a promotion to High-A Greensboro-and eventually Double-A Altoona-after posting a 1.76 ERA and 1.043 WHIP with the Grasshoppers.
Over his final 41.1 innings pitched with the Curve he did experience some difficulties, as he saw his ERA reach 3.92; although his WHIP did level out at a reasonable 1.185.
Back in Altoona to begin 2023, Sullivan has made 6 appearances thus far. In these outings he has totaled 10 innings of work, struck out 8, walked only one and surrendered two runs; good for a 1.80 ERA and a .900 WHIP. This includes a two strike out, one hit and no walk performance this past week.
4) Sean Sullivan-RHP (Altoona)
Selected by Pittsburgh in the 8th Round of the 2021 MLB Draft-223rd Overall-out of the University of California, Sullivan didn’t pitch in the Pirates Farm System that year; likely due to accumulating 78.1 innings during his Junior Season for the Golden Bears.
When he did start his professional career in 2022, Sullivan got the somewhat aggressive assignment of Greensboro. But he did pitch in the PAC12, so it shouldn’t have been too surprising.
On the year he maintained a solid WHIP of 1.360; which is honestly the statistic I look at first for every Pirates Minor Pitcher, but especially if they play for the Grasshoppers. Next I look at K/9 to try to determine if they are profiling as a swing and miss or pitch to contact hurler. In Sullivan’s case his 10.1 rate showed he has the ability to generate whiffs, thanks to a 4 pitch-mix that features an above average slider.
Assigned to Altoona to begin the season, Sullivan has yet to surrender a single run in his first three starts. On the year he has a 1.114 WHIP and 12 strikeouts-half of which came in his last outing-to go along with that 0.00 ERA.
5) Alexander Mojica-1B/3B (Bradenton)
Signed on his 16th Birthday-August 2nd-back in 2018 for $350,000, the 6’1, 195 pound third basemen from Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic began is professional career the following year in the DSL for the heralded Pirates 2 ball club; a team that I have written about, and made mention of numerous times over the past two years.
At 1.8 younger than the average player in the league that year, Mojica slashed .351/.468/.581 with 8 homers, 23 total extra base hits and a 17.6% walk to 15.6% strike out ratio; good for a ridiculously unsustainable 182 wRC+.
Following the pandemic eliminated 2020 season, Cherington and Company chose to be extremely aggressive with the now 250 pound Mojica by assigning him to the Low-A Bradenton Marauders, where he he would be 3.3 years younger than the average player. As the season progressed, the results ended up pretty much where you would have expected them to be as he struggled with controlling the zone at times. On the year Mojica’s strike out rate rose to 26.5%, his batting average fell to .219 and his wRC+ dropped by nearly 100 points to 87.
Unfortunately it wouldn’t get any better in 2022-and actually got worse-as he struggled his way to a .165/.296/.311 slash between Bradenton and the FCL.
Still only 20 years-old-for at least a few more months-Mojica is back in Bradenton for the third straight year; only this time it looks as if things might finally be clicking for Mojica.
In his first 62 plate appearances he is batting .286 with an .844 OPS and almost as many walks (12) as strikeouts (13).
Bonus: Jackson Glenn-3B/Mike Jarvis-IF/OF (Greensboro)
Glenn and Jarvis have a lot in common, so it only made sense to discuss them together as bonus picks for Top Prospects of The Week.
Both are in their 25 year-old season, probably playing a level down and put up video game numbers this last series.
Glenn-who the Pirates drafted in the 5th Round, with an extreme under slot bonus of $12,500 (valued at $422,300)-batted .538 with a 2.062 OPS, 3 homers and 3 doubles.
Who needs a home run siren when you got the @GSOHoppers broadcaster!
Jarvis-selected by Pittsburgh in the 6th, and given a signing bonus of $7,500 (valued at $315,000)-batted .412 with a 1.739 OPS, 4 homers, a double and a triple.
Together they were an unstoppable pair over the weekend.
Now obviously the odds are that this isn’t anywhere near sustainable. However, it makes me want to see if this type of progression could be carried over to the Double-A Level; sooner rather than later, because these guys are getting any younger.
Conclusion
There you have it! My Top 5 Pirates Prospect Performers-plus a couple-for the last week of April 2023.
Now remember, let me know if I missed anyone, and who your Top 5 would be. And, be sure check back each and every Tuesday during Minor League Baseball Season!
The Bucs took two of three against Washington, and now face their toughest test of the young season.
When & Who:
Pittsburgh Pirates (20-9) at Tampa Bay Rays (23-6)
Game 1 – (5/2, 6:40 EST)
Probable Pitchers:
For the Pirates – Roansy Contreras (3-1, 3.58 ERA)
For the Rays – Javy Guerra (0-0, 8.64 ERA)
Game 2 – (5/3, 6:40 EST)
Probable Pitchers:
For the Pirates – Mitch Keller (3-0, 3.53 ERA)
For the Rays – Shane McClanahan (5-0, 2.12 ERA)
Game 3 – (5/4, 1:10 EST)
Probable Pitchers:
For the Pirates – Rich Hill (3-2, 4.18 ERA)
For the Rays – Zach Eflin (3-0, 3.00 ERA)
Team Trends
There aren’t many teams, if any, better than Tampa Bay right now. Outside of their 23-6 record, they’ve been dominant in both the pitching and hitting aspects. Their rotation leads the American League with a 3.22 ERA, and their 156 strikeouts are the 6th most in all of MLB. Their hitting is equally as impressive, leading baseball with a .879 OPS and also in home runs (61) and team RBIs (188). When you don’t make many mistakes, and you’re hitting .281 as a team, it’s obvious the Rays’ start to the season is anything but a fluke.
The Pirates are having a surging start of their own, winners of eight of their past ten games, and are coming off a series win in Washington. The Pirates rotation has also been impressive, posting a 3.83 ERA, good for 5th in the National League. Pirates pitching has also been racking up a high strikeout total, with their 153 strikeouts 2nd best in the NL. The Pirates offense has been a pleasant surprise too, with their .792 OPS being the 2nd best in the NL and 3rd best in MLB. Their patience at the plate has been noticeable too, having walked 113 times this year, tied for 3rd most in baseball.
Who’s Hot
For the Rays – Randy Arozarena: Plenty of choices for Tampa, but Arozarena collected a hit in every game in the Rays’ previous series against the White Sox, going 5-14 in that stretch. His seven home runs, 28 RBIs, and .965 OPS also cannot be ignored.
For the Pirates – Bryan Reynolds: Reynolds had a fantastic series against the Nationals, collecting hits in each game, and two hits in two of the three games. (5-10 in the series). Reynolds now has a .926 OPS on the season, and when paired with his .320 average, he’s looking like his new contract extension with the Bucs may be a massive steal for the team.
Who’s Not
For the Rays – Jose Siri: The Rays center fielder has collected just a single hit and no walks in his last three games, going 1-11 in that stretch. Siri still has a .749 OPS on the season but has had a rough go the last few games.
For the Pirates – Andrew McCutchen: Rough series against the Nationals for Cutch, collecting just one hit in nine at-bats, with three strikeouts. McCutchen has looked strong for the majority of the season so far, but his production against the Rays will be critical, especially with the talent and success Tampa Bay has had pitching so far this year.
Series Overview & Prediction
You have the hottest team in the American League against one of, if not the hottest team in the National League. This is set up to be a fantastic series, maybe the series of the season so far.
Here’s my concern; the Rays’ pitching staff has been off the charts this year. So has their offense. They mash home runs and don’t give many up. The Pirates’ starters have done well limiting home runs so far this year, giving up just 17 so far, but it will be a massive challenge to keep the ball in the ballpark during this series.
The Pirates lineup, at least so far, has shown very few holes. They’re in a position they haven’t been in for quite some time, and it’s obvious the baseball world will be keen on seeing how the Bucs respond to a matchup of this level. For me, as hot as the Bucs are, it’s hard to see them slowing down Tampa Bay too much. Roansy Contreras, Mitch Keller, and Rich Hill have all been fantastic as of late this season. I think they can do enough to keep the Bucs in games long enough to give the offense a chance. But can the offense break through this Rays pitching staff?
I think Tampa takes two here. Two hot teams, it’s hard to pick one way or the other, but Tampa is hard to beat, and the Bucs are facing a challenge. The one fact that is easy to point out, however, is that this series is shaping up to be a good one, and both teams have a chance to win each and every game.
That’s 11 games over .500 folks. If the Pirates were to go 2 games under .500 every month from here through the end of the season, they’d still finish a game over. That’s how incredible this start has been.
Even if they’ve overachieved and in reality are more of a .500 team, this buffer zone they built up would make their final record show a better squad than that mark. Just amazing stuff, and historically, well, just appreciate it friends, no matter how good a team you put together this is an uncanny start.
Let’s go…
1. Hot Meets Hotter
The Pirates will embark on the next leg of their road trip on Tuesday when they arrive at the Trop in St. Pete to face the Rays, baseball’s unquestioned hottest team. The Pirates have been incredible, but in this matchup, they’re the equivalent of lighting a match in a forest fire, both are hot but one of them is burning the forest down.
Where do you begin with this matchup? The Rays lead all of baseball in homeruns with 61, and the Pirates are fifth in baseball having only given up 23. So there’s a key matchup right there. Unfortunately, the Rays also lead all of baseball in home runs allowed, having only surrendered 19 thus far.
Measuring sticks are always going to be there in baseball. Many wanted the Cardinals series to be that, but the Cards aren’t exactly playing like the Goliath they used to be. Some wanted the Dodgers to be the measuring stick, but since 90% of their team got busy during the All Star Break last year, they had some key pieces off on paternity leave when they came to town.
This one though, yeah, the Rays have far too many things going well to pretend they’re anything less than the best team going right now.
If the Pirates sweep the Rays, hold off on buying those World Series tickets. If the Rays sweep the Bucs, I wouldn’t burn your jersey either. What you’re looking for here is how do they look? Facing some really tough pitching, can the Pirates bats find a way to frustrate the Rays? Running and pressure has flummoxed most of the Pirates opponents, already with 41 stolen bases, the Bucs are a case study in stress management for opposing pitchers.
Do the Pirates have enough pitching to fight through this electric Tampa offense? Especially if it comes down to a bullpen game.
Early season gut check, and no matter the outcome, here’s the really good thing. These Veterans all know how to teach from it. No matter the record produced in this series, they’ll wind up with 2 or 3 lessons they had to play this one to learn.
Want to be seen as one of the best? Yup, you gotta play the best.
2. The Evolution of Jack Suwinski
Last season Jack was a kid with a lot of pop who struck out, especially against left handed pitching a ton.
This season so far, Jack is a kid with a ton of pop, who won’t chase outside of the zone and draws more walks as a result, even as he continues to K fairly regularly. The difference is he’s walking so much his on base percentage is damn near .400.
This is about the evolution of Jack, meaning, he’s still developing, but let me tell you the next step we’ll watch play out now.
Pitchers will start to understand Jack is in baseball’s 99th percentile as it comes to Chase Rate, meaning, Jack doesn’t swing if a ball isn’t in the zone, and in his case, I mean like hardly at all. They’ll see he’s 19th in Whiff% too, meaning in zone, he’ll still swing and miss and it’ll cause more pitchers to try to stop letting him hurt them via spitting on everything off the plate.
This is where he can really take a step. The walks are super great to see, but when pitchers start attacking him to combat it, he has to be ready and punish them. See, pitchers don’t want anything to do with his power, so they work around him, which in 2022, he’d help them with by swinging at trash.
If he can improve on the Whiff in the zone, there will officially be no good way to approach Jack. He’s already raised his OBP by 100 points from 2022 to 2023, but there is still more room, he’s that kind of talent.
25 Homeruns in 394 At Bats is just silly good. Every time you see a player do something really well, think of how the league will push back. For Jack, it’s going to be a recognition that he isn’t going to chase, but is susceptible to the Whiff in the zone. That’s his next challenge. If he conquers it, he won’t be seen as a platoon player now or in the future, he’ll probably be instead considered an All Star.
3. A Prospect is Ready, but…
It’s pretty clear Luis Ortiz the Pirates stud starting prospect is ready to move up. Many thought he and Mike Burrows would be additions to the rotation as the season rolled on but Burrows went down with TJS and now Ortiz stands alone.
In order to be ready, Ortiz needed to implement a changeup into his quiver and by all accounts, he’s done exactly that. The pitch has shape to it and life, and arguably more important than that, he has command of the offering. Still a bit to be accomplished on the arm slot aspect, but for a mere month in the minors and a few weeks in Spring, it’s impressive.
I have no doubt Ortiz will make his mark on this club in 2023, but this is a situation the Pirates haven’t shown us a whole lot yet, right now, they simply don’t have a place for him to pitch in the majors.
It’s huge to have a guy like this in your back pocket, but at some point the Pirates may have to choose “chance at great” over “provably good”. That time isn’t now, but if we get into June or July and he’s cruising, it’ll be hard to avoid.
Of all the interesting things 2023 will bring, watching how Ben Cherington and crew deal with this aspect will be fascinating. We’ll learn a ton about this GM by the choices he makes, and the timing of when he chooses to act too.
4. Steven Brault’s Next Chapter
After nearly 2.5 years of trying to rehab and get into pitching shape, Steven Brault is moving on with his baseball career in the Independent League. He’ll be playing for Frederick and he won’t be pitching, instead, he’ll be playing in the Outfield.
From Steven’s Instagram…
“Life has a funny way of making everyone feel like they have the worst luck at times. My career as a baseball player has been filled with so many ups and downs, but I for one consider myself extremely blessed to have been able to pitch against the best hitters in the world in the #mlb for about 5 seasons.
Unfortunately, injury has taken away my ability to stay healthy pitching, and rehabbing consistently for two and a half years now almost took away my ability to love and appreciate this game I’ve adored my entire life.
But I’m not done. After I signed with @frederickalpb in the Atlantic League, my manager Mark Minicozzi gave me the opportunity to try to revive my career as an outfielder, and I couldn’t be more thankful.“
We all remember Steven could hit, so I’m sure he’ll handle that aspect well, but at his age to attempt working through Indy ball and making a comeback is at the very least a long road. I wish him all the luck in the world, Brault was a truly kind and open Pittsburgh Pirate and he’s talented in so many things it goes to show how powerful the baseball bug is.
I know this is a bit of an odd piece for me in 5 thoughts, but when I came across this story, I couldn’t help it. I easily had 10 people argue with me that the Pirates should have signed Brault who was a free agent when Jarlin Garcia was injured in Spring.
Just because you recognize a name, doesn’t mean its a good fit, or the player is capable.
Something tells me one way or another we haven’t heard the last from Mr. Brault.
5. Mitch Keller Gets More Expensive Every Outing
With 2 years of arbitration remaining after this season, the Pirates simply have to have Mitch Keller at the top of their priority board for an extension.
Rightly so, all the extension attention has been squarely aimed at Bryan Reynolds, he was not only their best player, but a barometer for just how seriously this management group was. I’d also add in here, to not extend Bryan would have been like admitting someone was a huge liar. Bryan wanted to stay, the team supposedly wanted him to stay, both sides publicly agreed on the money, so to fumble at that point, well, there’d be no what to see it but one side lied.
Many fans immediately jumped to Oneil Cruz as the next target, but slow down a bit, Mitch Keller is going to force a decision long before Cruz.
You’ve seen the impact of starting pitching as the beginning of this season has shoved it right in your face. The Pirates have developed quite a few top of the rotation arms, but rarely have they retained them.
In the last successful era of Pirates baseball they truthfully avoided this, or got lucky. Francisco Liriano was getting a shot here, and opportunities weren’t exactly beating down his door. To his credit, he was phenomenal for a time, but his 3 year extension didn’t exactly help the club.
Charlie Morton was acquired, struggled, finally showed good, was extended but not for long, eventually having his best years winning trophies for other teams.
AJ retired, but be real, they got cheap to have him leave even for a season. Cole was never going to extend here, or anywhere because of his representation. Taillon was too hurt, too often to trust with it. Musgrove was developed and it took almost all his control to get him where he eventually landed. Toss in poor timing and he wasn’t part of the plan.
Now Mitch really should fit right into what they want to do. Buy out his arb years and tack on 3 more, I’m totally happy. He’ll still be a good pitcher when he leaves likely, but a team like this can’t afford to have a guy with his arm lifelessly dangling next to his body still owed 50 million or whatever.
This to me though, is a must.
They’ve simply worked too hard with him, and given him far too much opportunity to not be the beneficiary of his peak years of performance.
Go buy them.
What better veteran could you ask for, to help youngsters understand that the struggle bus gives everyone a ride, the key is making sure you get off at the right stop.
Before you inevitably hit me with “why not both?”, nobody is saying they can’t or shouldn’t here, I’m just saying they have time to mess with Cruz, they don’t have that luxury with Mitch. If he even just stays on this track he’ll approach 10-12 million in arbitration next year, 15-18 the following year, now I don’t need to tell you that would top the AAV of Bryan Reynolds, and folks, this is just arbitration. Once he sees numbers like that, it’s a really low mental jump to see what your market might be.
Go 5 years, 80-85 million, see if he’ll go for it. If not, figure out who is going to be your rotation anchor for this push, I can promise you this, if it comes internally, it won’t be someone as polished as Keller, not for a while anyway.
Steel City Pirates 