The Fallacy of the Best 26

6-1-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

It’s the battle cry of the wounded when it comes to baseball fan bases. The unquestioned barometer for whether your team is trying. The only way to truly be “all in”.

The best 26 players should be on the roster.

Trouble is, it’s almost completely crap.

Ok, that probably got half the readers to hate quit the site or close the app, but for those of you willing to give me a shot, I’ll explain what I mean here a bit.

Pick a team, give me 5 minutes and I’ll fairly easily show you who their worst Starting Pitcher, Reliever and position players are. Every team has them you know.

I’ll take that list and look to their minor league system and in 5 more minutes be able to tell you why whomever I identified from that list as “call up ready” likely isn’t getting the call over one of the “bad” players.

Today, let’s talk about all the reasons “best 26” rarely, if ever happens.

Money

Simple, elegant, a perfect headline for the dirtiest discussion on this whole subject.

When a team pays a player, dumping them is often very difficult. You either have to find another team willing to take them, or you simply have to accept you’re paying them for nothing and move on with your life.

If you’ve been a fan of a baseball team for a decade, you have a player that popped into your head immediately. Sometimes, they weren’t always bad, but they sure are now.

Pirates fans sure as hell have. Yoshi Tsutsugo got about 100 at bats more than he should have, and he didn’t even get 200 people. Gregory Polanco probably shouldn’t have played his entire last season in Pittsburgh. I could easily go on, especially if I got into the far past, but I think you get the drift.

Jason Heyward wasn’t one of the Cubs best 26 for most of his contract, yet there he was, rostered and playing.

Money clouds this seemingly simple thought exercise doesn’t it?

When a team like the Yankees has this crop up, you’ll see it even give them cramps. Now, what’s “big money” to them, isn’t the same as what Pittsburgh would consider, but still, it happens. Players don’t work out and we love to point out the deal is an Albatross.

The proverbial Ben Folds Five – Brick argument. He’s a brick and we’re drowning slowly….

Yet they just can’t let go most times.

Trusting Veterans

When a guy has a substantial MLB career they tend to get some benefit of doubt. In other words, a really crappy month at the plate don’t tend to cancel out 8 years of statistical proof that the player will return to form.

The only way to truly know the answer is to let it and indeed let him play it out. The more seasoned and consistent the player’s career has been, the more likely the team will need to see a larger bank of evidence to move on.

Back to our examples, Yoshi had almost none so he only got about 200 plate appearances before getting flushed.

Pitchers might be even worse. There is such a leaguewide shortage of quality arms that the law of distribution tends to ensure every team has at least a couple arms they’d prefer to hide until being blown out. So when a guy has been legitimately good over his career, it’s hard to accept you just missed, so they stay, maybe getting a reduced role but try and try again teams do.

Even while they have that stud reliever or starter just killing AAA?!?, you’re surely asking. Yeah. Because to a man, almost every baseball coach would tell you they’d rather use someone who’s been there than someone who hasn’t with far superior stuff. It’s kinda like thinking you could drive a NASCAR because you handle I-279 just fine every day and cut people of routinely to be in the right lane of the bridge. Maybe you could, but nobody is going to sponsor you until they’ve seen you do it on their track at their speed and even then the owner’s fingers will be chewed to the bone fretting.

Veterans get swag and leeway because to a degree, they’ve earned it. With average career lengths of 5.6 years, meaning most players don’t even reach free agency who break into the league, when one does reach that territory, chances are they’ve managed to do something at least uniquely if not flat out well.

Another angle here most don’t think about, the team will likely need to sign veteran free agents next year too. So try convincing a guy you’re trying to sign why you only gave that vet last year 75 at bats before DFAing him. Vets like to know they are going to at least get a shot to turn things around before getting walking papers.

So yes, sometimes a team will actively choose a lesser player with experience over a kid with clearly more talent who has less.

Keep in mind, I’m not saying any of this is the “right” way to think, I’m just saying, it’s reality in MLB.

Playing time

There are starters, and there are bench guys. Everyone knows that. But sometimes this factors in on why guys do or don’t get promoted. Let’s say you have a guy who is proven to be as ready as you’re going to get him in AAA.

Simply nothing left to learn by most accounts. Looks like he has a good shot too, but you have a problem, you don’t have at bats to give. Meaning, the guy you have starting in MLB, well, he’s not sitting. You have two options, teach the kid to play elsewhere or bring him up and have him play off the bench.

The worst thing you can do for a prospect is to have them just sit around, at any level really. Yet, you do at some point need to onboard the kid. You don’t want to leave Spring counting on a kid most of the time, now we’re saying it’s not ideal to slow walk him either, so how the hell is a kid supposed to get a crack?

9 times out of 10 it’s an injury, but nothing helps more than being positionally capable of moving around. It’s why you see so may kids bounced all over the field in MiLB. When they don’t, well, let’s just say their landing strip isn’t well lit.

Positional Concerns

There are many things to consider when constructing a baseball team, and positional ability is one of the big ones.

When you look at a team’s top 10 prospects, you’ll see many times the guy at the very top is nowhere near ready for MLB. That’s because all these lists are based primarily on a player’s ceiling, not ETA, not Floor, not stats, just their Tool ratings.

Well, at least at first. That’s part of why you see so many top prospects jump to the top of these lists when they get drafted and fall off after a season or two. Once scouts see them in the better talent pools, they reevaluate and re rank.

If you have a top of your prospect rankings filled to the brim with starting pitching, first of all, god bless you, good chance your team will someday soon deliver, but beyond that, the likelihood that your best 5 starters, or most talented 5 are in your rotation is just shy of nil.

The Pirates as we speak have 7 players considered middle infielders on the 40-man. 8 when Cruz returns (OK if). Of those, 2 are seen as SS capable. 6 of them are considered Young players or prospects.

Now, for 7-8 of those precious 40 man spots to be given to one rather narrow position group is fine, but when you start pulling for them to skip all of them and try another like Nick Gonzales because he’s hitting in AAA or whatever let me tell you what goes through their minds.

Nick also isn’t seen as a SS. He can play it in a pinch, but it’s not where they want him. Adding another 2B only guy while still trying to find out if you have anything with Castro Bae and the like is kinda counterintuitive.

Is he better than the 2B options the team is currently rostering? Maybe. Sincerely maybe he is. But for the shear percentage this group takes up on the 40-man you really need them to be able to move on from someone.

Super easy. Cut Owings right? Fixes the whole ratio thing, gets more talent up here, helps the team right now right? Well, maybe, or maybe it just prevents you from learning what you have.

Nobody is going to lose sleep over losing a guy like that, but patching a hole right now with yet another maybe might create a situation where nobody gets a fair shake.

Reality is the Pirates don’t need a backup SS often enough to have that position filled by a player who matters. If Gonzales is called up, he’ll start, and he’ll start most games for a while. It’ll mean few if any opportunity for guys like Bae or Castro, and when Cruz does return it’ll mean one of them is back in the minors.

That’s fine, happens every day in the game but if it also means one of them loses their spot on the 40, you’re going to be talking about losing some talent you just worked your ass off to build up into depth.

Some positions like catcher, well they effect more than just the position. If the catcher is bad, he can hurt the pitching staff, he can hurt the defense against the run game and no matter how he hits he can’t entirely make up for it. At some point the Pirates are going to have a rookie backstop, so at some point they are going to find a way to be ok with that fact.

Even so, Catcher is not a position to jump the gun on. Under no circumstances to I see the Pirates cleaning house on the position and calling up both rookies, at least not before September.

Nobody has really in AAA with the exception of Josh Palacios, but say a position player like Matt Fraizer starts raking. Think of everything he’d have to jump over to get here. CSN, Jack, Swaggerty, Palacios Mitchell, Joe, Bae and I’m not even discussing guys like Young or even Vilade.

So define their best 26. Out of that number you get no more than 5 OF, so who is so bad they’re out right now? Palacios? He’s 27, surely not in the long term plans, but he’s also hitting .280 with a .757 OPS. Short sample size of course, but he’s done ok with his opportunity. Won’t be Jack, can’t be Reynolds, doubt it’s Bae, Positive it won’t be Joe. Point is, one of them has to go to upgrade, and if Palacios is the odd man out, so be it, but it’s also hardly a priority when he’s actually hitting, even if he isn’t ultimately one of the best 26.

All that position flexibility we love to laugh at, well, this is part of the why.

Manipulation

Everyone does it, nobody admits it. Well, ok, nobody who keeps their job admits it.

Super 2 and getting an extra year team control are two different functions. One has a defined time attached, the other has a formula that isn’t announced as correct for almost a full 2 years after the call up.

Players look ready in Spring all the time, and rarely do you see teams Go North with them. Why? The player is easily one of the best 26 right?

Sure, but if you can make sure that player is likely yours for an extra year, you do it. The rules make it legal, so teams take advantage.

Hate it all you want, it’s a thing and until MLB changes and both sides think it matters it’ll remain a thing.

Real examples of this being supposed to be true are far greater than real examples of this being undeniably true.

Let’s take Endy as an example. Looked 100% ready in Spring with the bat, showed some real world examples of his catching shortcomings, but nothing you couldn’t overcome. Simply hadn’t played much in AAA yet. Hadn’t managed a staff and been the everyday guy back there yet.

Still could have done it, but the Pirates maybe more than most value the defensive side of the catching position. Right or wrong.

He’s caught most games he’s played in AAA, and done ok, maybe a bit of trouble controlling the run game, a bit of trouble blocking balls, calling games is still a work in progress. Framing is coming along well according to scouts.

Problem is at least for making the manipulation argument, he hasn’t hit. Not like he has anyway. His career .295 AVG and .903 OPS are for 2023 at .234 and .726.

Way better than Hedges, yes, I’ll get there…

Point is, you know, I know, players know, Endy Rodriguez is in AAA because of first and foremost Super 2. Thing is, his stats give them an out. He isn’t embarrassing them. Certainly isn’t pushing them. In fact in a recent interview with Alex Stumpf at DK Pittsburgh Sports, Rodriguez had this to say, “The focus is very different, Now there’s just one position where I can put 100% of my time and try to do a better job for the pitchers.”

Even the player is giving them an out.

Is it manipulation? Oh my, no doubt, but if this were a court of law, sorry, you aren’t getting the conviction, maybe you can get them on tax evasion instead.

As long as he’s in AAA the team doesn’t have one of their best 26 on the MLB roster. Fact.

Team is Just Too Good

Granted, this doesn’t happen a ton in Pittsburgh, but it does happen in the league. The Yankees for instance had no patience for Miguel Andujar to return to rookie form. They had a good team and needed a sure bet at 3B, not a guy who didn’t look like he was the same player after being injured. They yoyo’d him and evenutally moved on. The team was too good to even see if he was good enough. Hell the Dodgers had Jose Hernandez in AA because for them signing a bullpen arm, even if a lesser talent with experience was better than onboarding rookies in front of him.

I won’t spend much time on this one, it may never happen in Pittsburgh.

Options

At the stage of rebuild we’re in this is rarely an issue, but it sure will be. As this group grows together, we’ll get to the point where options have been exhausted by players like Marcano, Bae, Castro, Mitchell, you know what I’m talking about.

It happens all over.

In another season, we’ll see guys like this find their way to the DFA/Waiver markets. I’m not predicting doom for any of these players specifically, but the truth is, most prospects don’t turn out and as pressure builds from the minors, there’s less and less room to stash guys like this. The faster you push guys through, the faster you reach a boiling point, the more talent you could use you’ll see slip through the cracks.

Point is, this stuff gets harder when your team gets older. By 2025, every move not dealing with the very fringes of the roster will be painful for some. In fact, by 2025, the ritual calling for prospects to immediately arrive will quiet.

It’s because the team will be better, and have less holes, but it’s also because deciding to make a call will have real world consequences that directly effect the depth of the organization.

Closing

The best 26 don’t tend to all live at the MLB level because factoring in everything, it’s very hard to make the stars all align. Couple that with most fans not understanding a kid’s ceiling isn’t a guarantee of successfully reaching it and you have the complaint storm we see for the first 3 months of every season.

I get that this is far too complicated for someone who just tunes in when the Bachelor isn’t on and just want to see the best players in the org night after night, but for those of you along for the ride on this rebuild, you know I’m not lying.

It’s going to be much more intense in a year or two, and by then, most “fans” won’t even know more than 5 prospect’s names.

A good MLB product shifts the focus, as it should. A bad one brings the scrutiny and ignorance of pretending things done in AA directly translate to transposing those statistics to MLB.

Just like with Cruz, once they get here, you’ll see why they aren’t as “ready” as you thought, and they’ll then play above whomever your next “best 26” guy is for many of the same reasons.