Hump Day Pirates Q&A

6-7-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

It’s been a few weeks since I’ve done one of these. The month of May for me this year has just been a marathon of near constant running around.

Time to get back in the saddle.

Lets Go.

Question 1

Just over a month till the MLB draft, what are your thoughts on how the pirates will strategize this year? Do you think they will try and go under slot again and get more depth, or do they grab one of these LSU Tigers slotted at the top of the draft??? – Seth Johnson

Couple things here Seth, and it really starts with understanding the situation at the top of the draft board this year, is not the same as it was in 2021.

In 2021, there were easily 5 guys who had an argument for being 1:1, this season there’s a pretty clear 1:1 and a couple guys who could potentially have some talking points that toss some consideration their way.

If you were to secure Langford or Skenes in this draft, you’d feel like you had a great pick, unless you were the team that passed on Crews to get them. To me, he’s still the most polished, and he has the longest track record of being good.

Now, is there a scenario that has them go in another direction than Crews? The slot value for the 1:1 pick is ~9.7 Million. If Crews refuses to sign for less than say 12-14 million, you could see them potentially going with one of the others, but I don’t see them trying to get him to agree to like 9 for instance. Well, I see them trying, but let’s just say I don’t think they’ll make it a deal breaker.

The slot values fall after that, to 8.9, then 8.3 and so on and so on.

The Pirates have a total of $16,185,700 to spend on the draft, so if you give your number one overall 9.7 or whatever, even 10, you still have a little over 6 million for the rest of the draft.

Importantly here, the Pirates don’t have a Comp pick, so they have 1 first rounder here, not two-ish, not three-ish, just one. They pick back up with pick 42 with a slot value of a little over 2 million.

Bottom line, I don’t see the opportunity to “game the system” like they did in 2021 and further, I’m not sure they have the offensive potential in their system to pass on a phenom type offensive talent with a plausible ability to reach the league in 2 or 3 years at worst. Feels like they have a bunch of guys who might emerge, but they need more who “will”.

I think they take Crews here, and I think they’ll get it done under slot slightly. Good Question Seth.

Question 2

Hey Gary! Long time reader, frequent commenter. I’ve been a big Keliever despite the struggles at the dish. With his added toe tap last week leading to a strong weekend against the Red Birds, are we FINALLY seeing Young Hayes put it all together? – Michael – 412 Double Play Podcast

I don’t know man. Once I’ve burned my hand a few times I tend to stop touching the hot burner ya know?

I’m pulling for him obviously, and I certainly don’t think he stinks, but we’ve seen him make these adjustments in the past. Things go better, his hard hit rate starts to look like it’ll matter, then suddenly he reverts.

Standing up straighter worked for a while, then he went right back to the inside out swing after a week or so of success.

Keeping the hands away from his body a bit more helped for a while, then, yeah, right back to the inside out swing.

I think at this point with Ke’, I just want to see him do anything for a month before I believe it’s a real change.

Like you, I believe Hayes has more to give, but I feel he’s got some evolving yet to do. I, again like you, hope every time he changes something this will be the one that sticks.

More than anything, Hayes making adjustments is fine, but when the league pushes back against it, he needs to either adjust more quickly to that push back or he needs to push through it and trust that its going to work through it. As it stands now, first sign of adversity, he’ll just go back to what is comfortable.

Question 3

Which players on the current roster could you envision pirates potentially trading prior to the deadline? – Wilbert Matthews

Obviously Wilbert, this at least partially depends on their record come deadline time and a little about what Endy Rodriguez and Henry Davis can do.

The Pirates have a real need to get more production from 1B for instance. Ji-man Choi will be back and Santana is obviously still here. To get Endy at bats, the Pirates may choose to use him at 1B. If he’s really good, I’m not sure how they’d want to hold onto two expiring contract guys. So I’d say 1 gets moved minimally.

I think injury has changed some things on the Starting Rotation front. I can’t see them being “in the race” and trading Hill and he’s the only one I’d consider moving. In the offseason I proposed Brubaker, but obviously that’s not available.

The bullpen probably doesn’t have much of concern here. They won’t trade Bednar or Holderman. I can’t see why they’d want to move Moreta or Ramirez, I just don’t see them subtracting there unless they need to use some of this depth to acquire another need like a starter. May need to toss in a more proven reliever for now to get that done.

I can see them moving a middle infielder. Marcano, Castro, Bae, Mathias, even Peguero, any of those could happen as part of a deal to improve at the MLB level. Keep in mind, this would only be if they felt awfully good Cruz is coming back.

Cutch won’t be traded. In fact I’d bet he’ll be re-signed before the season ends for 2024.

I believe Hedges stays all year, and that will become clear sooner than later.

Really, I don’t see the benefit in trading most of what they have unless it’s part of improving the MLB team, this year, not in 2025.

I could see someone wanting Andujar. He’s hitting in AAA again and someone might offer a small piece in return. A bullpen arm or something of the like, maybe even just a guy with an option to bouce between leagues.

Question 4

With Hayes, Bae, Marcano making positive adjustments, is some credit due for Haines? Some one else? Too little too late? – Michael Hall

Well Michael, I gave Haines credit for April, I gave him credit for May. I gave him credit for Reynolds early surge (they worked together all off season), and I have to give him “credit” for Reynolds current power outage too.

Hitting coaches are easy to target and when an offense is humming it’s easy to praise them. This year though, it’s hard to look at the collection of players and believe this offense should be this anemic this often.

Let’s say this. Many people believe Endy and Henry will come up here and instantly “fix” the offense. If they do, Haines will get no credit. It’ll be that the team finally brought up superior talent right? If they don’t, Haines will get crucified for “ruining them” right?

I’d say this. I don’t like the overall hitting plan. I don’t believe Haines is the “architect” of this hitting plan, just the administrator of it.

What an MLB hitting coach does is schedule sessions, review mechanics, encourage, educate, arm with tools and let the talent take over. Implementing a hitting plan, meaning an overriding ethos for the offensive approach, that comes from the manager, the analytics team and is implemented organizationally.

For the Pirates, that ethos is very much so, we aren’t going to swing at pitches we can’t do damage to. That’s the idea, failure or not, that’s the goal.

I don’t think Haines is a good hitting coach, but if you give him credit for what’s ok, and what isn’t, it largely looks like mud. If I had to guess, he gets his walking papers after this year if they don’t get to middle of the pack on most offensive numbers.

Question 5

Is there anyone performing well enough to give hope for some power at 1B? Carlos has been a disappointment in that aspect. – Michael Hall (again, it was a good question)

I believe first of all, Carlos Santana is by far the best defensive first baseman the Pirates have. Defensively speaking of course. He can hit too, but because of the Choi injury, he’s been asked to do far more than they planned or wanted to ask of a 37 year old veteran.

Ask any professional hitter what drives their power at the plate, and each one to a man will tell you they get power from their legs. What kills legs for a veteran? Playing in the field too much.

I believe he has a role to play here, but he needs to be a reserve or DH more often.

Now, your best bet as we sit here is Endy. He can and will play 1B when he’s called up, and he’ll hit better than Carlos.

Nunez is injured. Shackelford is 26, and while he’s hit, I doubt he’s seen as a long term answer. Mason Martin has hit in AA, but he’s done that before, I truly don’t now what to make of him. Endy to me stands out as the best option to get an instant 1B offensive option internally.

Question 6

What’s going on with Reynolds? I thought he was supposed to be good in June. He’s striking out and bouncing into a lot of double plays. Don’t want that at the top of the lineup… – Brendon Gallagher

What’s going on with Reynolds? Easy, he’s first of all being too selective at the plate and his timing is off.

Answered. Lets move on.

OK, so it’s probably too easy.

Reynolds is largely alone in this lineup for “consistent threat” so when the offense as a whole heats up, he’ll heat up. Right now, if I’m any other team, Reynolds is the one guy I’m not pitching to.

When Bryan struggles with his timing, he tends to crawl into the comforting shell of drawing walks. Run into a stretch of guys who can paint the corners or umps who call the corners 100% for the pitcher and he can look very lost.

For Bryan, he simply isn’t a hitter who is going to fish for hits. If the ball isn’t in a place he feels he can do damage, he’s not going to swing and as we discussed, nobody wants to give him any. If he gets frustrated and starts swinging at all the borderline, he’ll bounce into double plays, or fly out weakly.

Now, “supposed to be god in June” is silly for a couple reasons. First, it’s June 7th, lol. Check back on the 30th, you’ll have a different take.

Second, I’m not sure how much more evidence you need from Reynolds that by the end of the season you’ll like his numbers. He’s 28, he’s in his prime, he’ll hit, but he’s never going to be a guy who goes 162 without a dip or even dive in performance.

It’s possible there has never been a quality hitter this tied to timing. When he’s on, he’s simply put an MVP candidate. When he isn’t, he’s a starter who looks like he belongs in the 7 hole.

Unquestionably though, he’s their best player, and he’s going to stay at the top of the order, if only because they don’t have anyone you could even pretend would be an upgrade.

All I can really say to this question is, baseball is not meant to be ingested in week segments. It’s meant to be more about the passage of time. When you answer a question about a guy and convince yourself he’s a piece, these blips really don’t move the needle. They knew this was part of the deal with him.

When/if this team is a World Series contender, I’m not sure he’ll be their 2 hole hitter, but for now, sorry, I don’t see it changing, nor should it.