Pirates Need to Reset with the All Star Break

7-6-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

The All Star game is great for the players selected to participate, and it’s good for fans who enjoy such exhibitions, but for this team, this year, it needs to be great because it gives them time to shuffle the deck and come out of the break ready to write a fresh chapter.

So even as we cheer for David Bednar and Mitch Keller to enjoy the festivities, drink their IC Lights, and wear their pimp suits on the red carpet in Seattle while being force fed Pearl Jam songs, the Pirates as a club have to try and hit a huge reset button on the season.

Today, let’s talk about some issues that have to be dealt with, and be realistic about how solvable they are.

The Rotation

Before we get into this, lets just deal with something head on. This team lost 3 pieces meant to help this rotation in 2023. You can blame whomever you want, but there aren’t a lot of GM’s sitting on such a wealth of pitching their team can survive that kind of hit.

I believe the team’s dream scenario would have been Osvaldo Bido gives them 4-6 turns through the rotation and Roansy Contreras would be ready to step in, maybe even flip flop with Bido. That has clearly not panned out.

Roansy has lost his fastball, and according to Derek Shelton, it’s mechanical. I can buy that, specifically the part about Ro not being quick through his delivery and it’s caused a rather dramatic loss in velocity.

The Pirates have also seen Luis Ortiz experience much of the same.

The loss of velocity effects the fastball of course, but it also effects how well the slider plays, how the curveball acts, how a changeup is effective.

Part of the velo loss has been team directed, and Roansy referenced it last night after the loss “Right now, I’m trying to focus on controlling my fastball instead of throwing too hard,” “My main focus is to control my fastball in the strike zone.” That’s led to a drop from 95-97 MPH to last night’s 92-93 and functionally speaking, if that’s what he had last year, he never debuts in 2022.

On top of all that, he simply doesn’t trust his stuff anymore. None of it. The curve doesn’t land, the slider has little bite, and the bullpen trip to fix it, well, it isn’t.

Ortiz’ issues believe it or not are less crushing. Even while ramping back he still has plenty of velocity, he just needs to stop missing spots with it and the answer can’t be to drop the velo even further.

Both of these pitchers should start the second half in AAA. Both are by no means done, neither should be written off, but figuring it out in the majors isn’t working, so I fully expect Roansy to follow Ortiz to Indy.

That’s going to leave them with Keller, Hill, Oviedo, who has his own consistency issues but because of where they are he’s a lock for this rotation, and I suppose Bido but I can’t see that lasting much longer.

I don’t think Quinn Priester is ready, but I have to admit, consistency or not, he’s going to eventually have to be given a shot. I don’t think it’d go well but we’ve already been through the ringer so maybe that has to be the direction.

All that said, Cam Aldred is likely the next call up to start, and Jason Mackey just suggested this earlier today. Jared Jones would be in this mix too, but man, I’d like to see him get a few more starts in AAA.

Best case, Ortiz or Roansy find something working with the AAA staff and it comes quickly. To me, Ortiz is the best shot at that, and prepare yourselves for him looking like everything is working in AAA, because at that level, 75% Ortiz is unhittable for many.

Diagnosis: There just aren’t many options left. This rotation is 3 deep and they have no choice but to try some less than comfortable options and hope they can get through to some of their pedigree players and prospects.

The Bullpen

David Bednar, Colin Holderman, Carmen Mlodzinski, Yerry De Los Santos and really anyone else Derek Shelton points at on a given night could be a disaster.

Dauri Moreta has talent, a unique pitch and at times an inability to do much beyond said pitch. That said, they must keep using him, he’s still even while struggling been a better option than most.

Jose Hernandez is on a rehab assignment and he could be ready soon, that’ll help. Imagine pining for a Rule 5 selection to get healthy. That’s where we are though.

Rob Zastryzny is also rehabbing, but he might not be better than Borucki who himself isn’t good.

Angel Perdomo has been ok, but probably isn’t a late inning guy as they’ve had to use him.

Colin Selby hasn’t exactly dominated AAA, so I’m not sure he’s the guy right now either. Do I dare suggest they revisit Duane Underwood?

Diagnosis: Get healthy, hope 5 or 6 reliable arms is enough, which is unlikely with the state of the rotation, until someone new steps up or trade to get it.

Kids Out – Kids In

It’s time to pull the plug on the Rodolfo Castro figuring it out in MLB phase of his development. Chances are he’ll go for the returning Ke’Bryan Hayes, and if not Ji-man Choi should get it done.

After Castro, demotions start to get harder and you really do have to take something you hate into account, position flexibility.

For instance, let’s look at the Pirates 13 position players I see after the break…

Bryan Reynolds (LF, CF)
Jack Suwinski (LF, CF, RF)
Ke’Bryan Hayes (3B)
Henry Davis (RF, C)
Carlos Santana (1B, DH)
Ji-man Choi (1B, DH)
Nick Gonzales (2B, SS, 3B)
Andrew McCutchen (DH, RF)

Those 8 to me are locks and should be for now. The rest are at least not 100%.

Jason Delay (C)
Austin Hedges (C)
Connor Joe (LF, RF, 1B, 3B)
Josh Palacios (OF)
Jared Triolo (OF, IF)

Now, obviously I’ve already accounted for Choi and Hayes returning here, and I’ve made the at least difficult for me choice to send Tucupita Marcano to AAA in order to keep Triolo.

I could be convinced to go another direction but I’m not sure where you’d turn to get that spot. Triolo has done well, the only way I can convince myself he can go is if I need to keep Marcano for the left handed bat. Gonzales and Davis have changed the handedness of the roster.

Palacios probably doesn’t matter beyond this year, but he’s done ok here, leads the NL in pinch hits and if we really believe merit should dictate decisions, that would certainly not be in that spirit. That said, the youth movement won’t be stopped, Josh isn’t a hill I’ll die on.

Connor Joe has been down, but he was also tremendous for the first month or so and a .754 OPS for a part time player is hardly bad.

Soon they’ll call up Endy Rodriguez and when they do he’ll have to play catcher. Word is, they’ll allow him to when called up because they like where he is in the development process. I fully believe this will be Jason Delay, yeah, I know, not what you want to hear, but I can’t really disagree.

Diagnosis: I think they can come out of this break with 11 guys you legitimately don’t cringe at seeing in a lineup. That doesn’t mean it’s a finished product, but it does mean moves from here on out aren’t going to be as simple as picking 2 guys you’ve seen enough of and crying for the next top prospect. Well, unless you’re a crazy person who thinks Jack Suwinski hits like the 26th man (yes I really did get that comment).

Coaching Changes

Calling for Andy Haines to be fired is fruitless. While I fully see them doing so after the season, for whatever reason they’ve circled the wagons and at least partially that’s because Andy Haines is the preacher, but our real problem is the version of the Bible he’s using.

Even when he’s fired, that overriding philosophy will remain. If you want to see what their plan looks like in action by competent hitters, take a look at the Yankees and Dodgers, they execute this style. Walk, walk, K, K, hit a homer. No homer, no score.

LA gets on base more, NY gets on base less, but in HR per game the Pirates rank 25th with .92 per. The Yankees 5th with 1.43 and the Dodgers 2nd with 1.59. The Pirates are trying to play a system their personnel doesn’t support. All that said, if you look at all this and still don’t understand why people are excited about Jack Suwinski, pay attention. Either of those teams are likely employing someone just to mop up the drool when they see him play. All he does is walk or hit a dinger.

Maybe someday this all will manage to work itself out as they add more guys who can play the game they’re being asked to, but right now, it’s just not going to work often enough.

I think what I’d suggest would be to just call up someone from the system like Jon Nunnally, to at least provide an alternative voice. I don’t expect this to work miracles, but I do think it’s clear the message isn’t working for everyone.

Diagnosis: Broken until they load the team with superstars or start managing players to be the best version of themselves instead of hoping they’ll turn into their vision.

Conclusion

This team is improved.

They have better players than they’ve had, but attrition has taken the shine off this apple coupled with what I see as stubborn and unproductive coaching.

I don’t see some huge turnaround coming, but I do think they can flirt with .500 this year but they’ll have to trust the youth and get some luck with health.

I can’t stress how much this team is dying for Oneil Cruz’ bat, and the thing is, it’s unfair to expect him to be the savior this year. 3-4 months off isn’t typically great for baseball players. That weapon would stretch everything out and really enable them to feel just about everyone had some protection in the lineup.

I’d like to see them pursue a deal that moves out some of the middle infield clutter, before they get to the point where they’re out of options and wind up DFAing them. Castro has looked like pooh, no doubt, but he’s still a talent, if you can get a AA pitcher, might have to consider it. I still think this kid could hit 20-25 bombs in this league, but I’m less confident than I’ve ever been he’ll be able to hold down a position.

Marcano is a nice little player, but I’m not seeing more than a bench bat and utility guy, Triolo might already be an upgrade for this.

These players aren’t worthless, might even factor in here yet, but if you can make the team stronger by using them, have at it.