7/7/23 By Craig W. Toth (aka @BucsBasement on Twitter)
When you have the 1st Overall Pick-especially in a year where there are at least 3 to 4 players near the same talent level, or project-ability depending on who you ask-things can get a little muddled.
Throw in some genuine misunderstanding-at the very least-and misrepresenting-at the very worst-of statements made by people in the know, and you are left with a jumbled mess of who could, or should be the Pirates pick at 1:1.
Nevertheless, before we get into that, let’s get ourselves to a general understanding of exactly what the top of the MLB Draft is all about.
Above all else, the almighty dollar reigns supreme.
Not Nutting’s wallet. The Pirates will spend there entire allotment of bonus money…they always do.
Not Scott Boras or any other agents feelings concerning which team will shell out come extension time.
Not where a player wants to spend the next 6+ years.
It’s about how much you can get from the jump, because even guys selected early on don’t always make it in the Big Leagues, for a multitude of reasons. Or, if they do make it, they don’t experience the type of success that would eventually warrant a big payday.
At the moment, the majority of trustworthy sources have predicted that the Pittsburgh Pirates will call out one of three names-two of which, fans from the Steel City have become intimately familiar with over the past few weeks-when they step to the podium just after 7 PM on Sunday evening.
Not surprisingly, many of these same fans have decided to plant their flags so deep in one camp that threats to take the Clemente Bridge, play in traffic, or being done with the team forever have been tossed out as reasonable reactions to their favorite player not being selected.
So, in essence half of Pirates Social Media will burn to the ground upon hearing any other name.
I’m obviously about as far away from that group as humanly possible; although I will still stick to the three most commonly mentioned players when it comes to who I think the Pirates will take 1:1.
We all know the rationale behind selecting each young man by now; but, I will discuss that anyway as well.
1) Dylan Crews (OF)-LSU
About a week prior to the 2020 MLB Draft, Crews withdrew his name from consideration; in spite of being listed as a bonafide first round pick by multiple outlets. Instead he honored his commitment to LSU, as his draft stock slipped slightly due to the pandemic shorted high school baseball season; a choice that not only benefited the Tigers, but Crews himself.
Ranked as the consensus 1:1 coming into this season, Crews didn’t really do anything to make people question this distinction; slashing .426/.567/.713 with 18 homers, winning the 2023 Golden Spikes Award, being named the SEC player of the year and helping the Tigers become National Champions. To his credit he also put to rest some of the swing and miss concerns that had popped during the previous year by walking 71 times; while striking out just 46 times in 344 plate appearances.
Unfortunately for him though, his season did not exist in a vacuum; as other players’ names-specifically his teammate Paul Skenes-begin to surface as legitimate contenders for the 1st Overall Pick.
On the surface this could be attributed to so-called prospect fatigue, writers needing to mix things up a little bit-rather than writing the same narrative over and over again, or the aforementioned money debate; due to Crews reporting wanting at, over or near a full-slot bonus from the Pirates.
However, I don’t think it’s that simple; especially after hearing from, and speaking to Caroline Felton from LockedOnLSU, while being a guest on the Pirates Fan Forum Podcast a couple weeks ago.
Rationale: Seen by a veteran scout as the best hitting prospect since Bryce Harper-and compared to a recent 1:1 in Adley Rutchman-Crews has the tools necessary to be an above league average hitter, with more than enough pop to regularly hit 20 to 25 homers, the speed to swipe a decent amount of bases, an arm to play anywhere in the outfield and most importantly the defensive acumen to stick at centerfield-according to most scouts.
I view Crews in a similar vein to a player like Andrew Vaughn; but without the cancelled 2020 Minor League Season. Although he was drafted with the third overall pick, Vaughn was described as having an advanced college bat that could move quickly through the Minors.
After being selected by the White Sox, he spent the rest of the 2019 between the Complex League, Low and High-A; with the idea that he would be in Double and Triple-A in 2020, and make his debut in 2021.
Simply put, I could see a similar path taken by Crews.
2) Paul Skenes (RHP)-LSU
Dominant is probably the best way to describe Skenes.
Across 19 starts-and 122.2 innings the 6’6” 235 pound righty posted a 1.69 ERA, with a 0.750 WHIP and a NCCA Division I leading 209 strikeouts.
There’s honestly not much more to say about Skenes, that his numbers don’t already say for themselves.
I guess you could mention the athletic build and repeatable motion; even though most of you have already predetermined that he is going to require Tommy John surgery at some point.
Rationale: According to numerous scouts, Skenes could pitch in the Major Leagues today; not that he would. He’s just that advanced. Compared to Stephen Strasburg and Gerrit Cole, Skenes has an 80 Grade Fastball that averages 98 mph, a 85-89 mph 70 Grade Slider and a 50 Grade Change Up that keeps hitters guessing at 89-93 mph.
How often are the Pirates going to have an impact pitcher of that caliber come available to them in the Draft?
Plus he doesn’t have as many miles on his arm as many would imagine. He didn’t participate in the travel circuit as a high schooler, and was a two-way player at Air Force leading up to his Junior Year at LSU.
3) Wyatt Langford (OF)-Florida
Not nearly the at the same level of hype as Dylan Crews, Langford has put together a pretty nice collegiate career for himself over the past two seasons with the Gators.
Aside from a freak injury during the 2023 season-and one without any lasting effects-Langford followed up the .356/.447/.719 slash line with 26 homers that he put up during his Sophomore season by slashing .373/.498/.784 with 21 homers this year.
On top of that he also improved his walk to strikeout ratio; going from 36:44 to 56:44 across the same amount of plate appearances-303 to be exact.
Rationale: It is extremely likely that the Pirates could get Langford to sign under-slot. This would allow Ben Cherington and Company to have the flexibility to pull a highly ranked high school down the board to #42 by offering him an over-slot bonus, that other teams ahead of them would be unable to match.
Think Anthony Solometo in the 2021 MLB Draft.
Yes, this is not 2021, and I don’t think anyone believes that.
I also don’t consider the distance between Crews and Langford to be as far as some have implied.
On a recent episode of Minor League News And Brews, MLB Draft Expert Joe Doyle from Future Stars Series spoke about the razor thin difference between Crews as projectable players.
Basically if you want more power potential, Langford is superior to Crews; and, he doesn’t lag far behind as it pertains every other measurable tool. The only difference is he is seen strictly as a corner outfielder; although he isn’t exactly a bad defender either.
Ok, I talked myself into listing the fourth.
4) Max Clark (OF)-Franklin Community HS
Clark is the best high school player in the Great State of Indiana, and possibly the country depending on which outlet you subscribe to.
During his senior season he batted .646 with 6 homers; striking out just 5 times and taking 55 free passes. His OPS on the year…an astronomical 2.023.
A three sport athlete, Clark is quick (70 Grade Run), has a plus arm (65 Grade) and is an above average defender (60 Grade).
Rationale: He could end up being the best hitter taken from the year’s draft class. He is a natural centerfield, that is very unlikely to move off the position.
Conclusion
I really won’t be upset if the Pirates select any of these guys. The draft isn’t just about the 1:1; as we have seen in recent years.
Sure, they could still get solid group of players during the remaining rounds with a slot value bonus with the 1st Overall Pick; still, if they have say an extra $700K to as much as $1.2 million-a number I have seen reported-the opportunity only grows to be able to bring in multiple high ranked prospects.
That’s why I can be mad if they go with Skenes, Langford or Clark on Sunday.
Hell, I can’t be mad if they get Crews either. The kid is a ridiculously good ballplayer.
Wait to see how the Draft Board shakes out for Ben Cherington and Company, before making any judgements. And even then, you should really wait a solid four or five years before any of these arguments-for or against him-can really hold any water.
Sit back and enjoy it.
Hopefully it’s the last time the Pirates have the 1:1 for a while.
Steel City Pirates 