7-29-23 – By Justin Verno & Corey Shrader – @JV_PITT and @CoreyShrader on Twitter
Justin Verno- Corey, our work is almost done. The MLB Trade Deadline is fast approaching and soon we will be scouring over the return that Ben Cherington got and if it was worth the price he paid, hopefully.
Corey Shrader- We are quickly approaching the deadline and until recently we (or I, atleast), have not seen many credibly sourced tidbits relating to the Pirates. But that all changed recently did it?
JV- It sure did. We went from 0 to 60 like Dom Terretto. As we get to the focus of this installment, Jon Heyman broke a little tidbit that directly corresponds to our targets in this piece.
First this.
Followed by this little gem.
Way to bury the lead, Jon.
CS- Two Heyman bombs on the same day on the Bucs! I also appreciate the most important part of this is tossed in at the end of the tweet. While it seems unlikely to see the team part with either, they are arguably the two biggest trade chips the team has. It simply must be discussed.
JV- Agreed. We couldn’t ignore this if we wanted to. Why would we? The whole reason Gary has us doing these is for this very thing. It’d be like Winnie the Pooh ignoring a jar of honey.
Before we get too far into this, how about a disclaimer?
If GM Ben Cherington is to move one of or both of these allstars, the deal would need to not only be an overpay, it’d need to have MLB ready talent or talent that is extremely close to being ready to debut. Not that there aren’t examples of these kinds of deals, there are, but there just aren’t a lot of them. It’s relatively rare. I’m not saying it’s like finding a unicorn, but it is like finding $20 in your coat jacket–it happens, but not all that often. And with that in mind, I’m not sure either Bednar or Keller get moved.
CS- Of the two, I could see Bednar moved simply due to the fact that RPs, even the very very good ones, are more of a luxury item to non-contending teams. This being said, the team will likely position itself as a divisional contender during the timeframe that Bednar is under team control. We also have to factor in the “hometown guy” thing. It is real. Fans would be pretty darn unhappy unless the return is somewhat astounding and has a certain level of name recognition.
JV- A point that GMBC needs to be aware of, but it can’t factor into Bednar’s trade value. Speaking of Bednar’s trade value, without further ado…
Bednar Value
If GMBC is to move David Bednar, he can not go by ZiPS projections.
2024- 0.8
2025-0.6
Bednar has consistently outplayed his projections. 1.2 WAR in 21, 1.5 WAR in 22 and he sits at 1.7 WAR as Corey and I started to write this.
Another common talking point is teams don’t give up a package for a closer with control, and I’m not sure that’s entirely accurate. Closers with control don’t get traded a lot. Maybe every three or four years. The last one? Brad hand, who like Bednar had 3+ years of control and was a 1.2-17 WAR closer at the time of the trade.
The differences? Hand was LH. But unlike Bednar, Hand was never a power arm. All in all, Bednar could bring a better return than Hand did in the 2019 Trade Deadline. (Fransisco Mejica was a top 20 prospect). Let’s get to the values I think the Pirates should look at.
| 23 ROS WAR | 0.5 |
| 24 WAR | 1.7 |
| 25 WAR | 1.7 |
| 26 WAR | 1.5 |
| Total WAR | 5.4 |
| Win Value | x9 |
| Total Value | $48.6M |
| Salary | $22 |
| Surplus Vale | $26.6M |
That’s the SV now the packages.
CS- I actually think that this idea is a fairly obvious one, and at the risk of being cliche, I will forge ahead with it still. But there is an obvious trade partner here in Tampa Bay.
The Rays typically boast a strong bullpen, but the 2023 iteration has been uncharacteristically poor. Pair this with the fact that they have several well known, “big name” prospects in AAA that are more or less, “ready.”
The deal
Tampa Bay gets: David Bednar, CL/RP SV 26M
Pittsburgh gets: Kyle Manzardo, 1B ETA: 2023, FV 50/SV 28M
Generally, I do not think Tampa Bay would spend resources like this to acquire a bullpen piece. Their organizational reputation is that they turn other team’s trash into treasure. They routinely turn players with either elite pitch traits or high end pedigree into gold. One such example we all saw this year when they sent Alika Williams to the Bucs for Robert Stephenson. The Rays quite frankly do not send prospect capital away for RPs when they can build them. So far that has not really worked as well in 2022 & 2023. I’d just like to note that Stephenson has been pretty terrific in his 16.1 IP for the Rays. As of writing this he has posted a line of:
16.1 IP, 38.1/7.9 K%/BB%, 3.31 ERA, 2.85 FIP, .172 BA against, 0.92 WHIP, 2 holds, 1 win, 1 loss, 1 blown save.
I could see them however make such an investment in an elite level, proven backend piece that is under control for several years.
As for Manzardo, all he has done in his minor league career is hit. Not really noted for his power, his hit tool and quality of contact is among the best in all of the minor leagues. His AAA batted ball data also supports his in-game power being likely to outperform his raw power due to this consistent hard & high quality contact.
Tampa’s top prospects, Manzardo included, are currently blocked by guys that are performing very well at the major league level. They’ve also got another fantastic pair of 1B prospects in the lower minors (Xavier Isaac & Cooper Kinney) who would keep their “1B of the future” pipeline open for either when the day comes for that need.
JV- I’m a Manzardo fan so I love that deal, but considering the market is what it is, is that enough? More on the market later, though. For now let’s stay with Bednar. I’m looking to where the stars at night are big and bright.
The Deal
The Texas Rangers get-
David Bednar-Closer (SV $26M) and Ji-Hwan Bae-OF/2B/SS/DH (SV $20-30M)
The Rangers have the look and feel of a real contender. They need to add BP help (including a top notch closer) and with Seager down, Bae would be a crafty little pick up. He can play SS or CF and his speed atop that lineup would be a boost.
Pirates get-
Evan Carter-OF-ETA:2025- FV 50($28M)
Carter has 69 games at AA and he is not at all struggling, so I’m ignoring that ETA. And if I’m being honest, Evan Carter is likely off limits in any trade talks, so Rangers fans please know I understand that. But part of me wonders if Langford makes Carter a guy they would in fact move in the right deal? And could Bednar be the right deal? Anyway, Carter is 20 and the surface has barely been scratched, Kid can play.
Owen White–SP–ETA:debuted- FV 45($4M)
If this name looks familiar, it’s because it should. I’ve used him before and as recently as last week. It’s hard to know where the Rangers view him in their world. An untouchable FV55 prospect to start the season but he really has struggled. TINSTAAPP is certainly in play here? But if the Rangers are willing to include him, it’s a good gamble.
Marc Church-SIRP-ETA:2024-FV 40+($1M)
Gonna move a back end RP, why not see if you can get his replacement? Church has a lively FB that tops out at 97 MPH. The slider has gotten better and has a 70 FV to go with that 60 FV fastball. What’s the issue with him? Control, control and control, to name three. But I’m pretty sure the Bucs like the FB/SL profile, would you agree?
Moving Bednar is a tall task, and Evan Carter is the bait I’d take to do just that.
Keller Value
Keller is a similar boat to Bednar. The Bucs cannot sell him at his current ZiPS projections of 1.9 and 1.8 in 24 and 25 seasons. But I won’t push the bar too high–let’s push it up just a tick.
| 23 ROS WAR | 1 |
| 24 WAR | 2 |
| 25 WAR | 2 |
| Total WAR | 5 |
| Win Value | x9 |
| Total Value | $45M |
| Salary | $14M |
| Surplus Value | $31M |
Corey, does $31 million sound like a reasonable value for Keller? I think it’s fair to note he’s struggled over a good chunk of the season, but GMBC simply cannot sell him at warehouse pricing. This isn’t Costco. If a GM thinks they can fix what is going wrong with Mitch Keller, then Cherington needs to make him pay full price to pry him away. Otherwise I think it makes more sense to fix Mitch and keep in black and gold.
CS- I think Keller’s price tag estimate here seems fair. The control adds a layer of complexity to this that is hard to capture. I could very well see the SV on a return exceeding this figure as we appear to be in a seller’s market. I am going to head out west to find a possible new home for Mitch.
The Deal
Dodgers get: Mitch Keller, SP SV 31M
Pirates get: Michael Busch, INF ETA: 2023 FV 50 (28M)
Nick Frasso, P ETA: 2023 FV 40+ (1M)
Josue De Paula, OF ETA: 2026+ 45+ (8M)
The Dodgers have a plethora of injuries at starting pitcher. The Dodgers have a lot of near “ready” depth in the upper minors. Mitch Keller is in the midst of a breakout season. Mitch Keller is under control until 2026. Could we have a match for a suitor? Maybe?
Mitch Keller’s story is one of my favorites in baseball, not just on the Pirates. Had a breakout as a 20 year old in 2016 and rocketed up the minors with only small levels of struggle. He had a debut in 2019 that was unremarkable from a surface stat standpoint, but the underlying details showed that his top prospect status looked well earned. Well, he continued to work, struggle, and most importantly, he continued to improve. I am not sure that I have seen many pitchers try so hard to “breakout.” Mitch appears to have got some things to click in 2023 and he earned himself an All Star roster spot.
He has scuffled of late post-All Star break, but he is still a very gifted pitcher. He throws a kitchen sink arsenal and has many impressive attributes that he flashes regularly from the true 80 grade sweepers to high end velocity and movement profiles on his four-seam fastball. Not to knock the Pirates and what they’ve done sticking by their guy, but it is hard not to drool at the potential Mitch could tap into in the hands of an elite pitching dev organization like the Dodgers.
Michael Busch feels like he has been around forever, but he hasn’t really got a real shot at regular PAs for the Dodgers. In just 51 major league PAs he has not really been very spectacular, but it is too small of a sample to draw much from. He is decimating AAA with a .432 wOBA, 141 wRC+, 265 ISO and a great batted ball profile with an impressive approach in 316 PAs this season. He is defensively limited but has played across the diamond (1B, 2B, 3B) at AAA. The bat should be his carrying tool and he presents a similar profile to a Max Muncy type of player.
Nick Frasso is in the midst of a mini-breakout in 2023. The stuff profile has been impressive since his debut in 2021 and now that he has reached the upper minors the recognition has finally begun to catch up. He has prototypical size at 6’5” 200lbs and boasts an impressive arsenal of a big heater and strong secondaries. There is RP risk there, but it would be imperative that he gets a long look as a starter first.
Josue De Paula was arguably the biggest 2022 DSL performer. While these types are incredibly mercurial and hard to predict sustained success, this is where the true mega-ceiling types come from. He is holding his own stateside as an 18 year old and truth be told, might be “untouchable.” He fits the bill for the type of player that the Pirates would be looking for in return though. His inclusion here is more representative of the sort of prospect profile I’d like to hunt out, but his value on top prospect lists is probably not reflective of the way his home organization views him. Getting him back might mean that also getting Busch & Frasso is unlikely.
JV- That’s an interesting package and one that I feel the Bucs could realistically get for Mitch Keller. In this case, I think I’d like to see GMBC get highway robbery in any Keller deal. As you mention, the market for pitching is hot. How hot?
The return the Chicago White Sox got for Reynaldo Lopez and Lucas Giolito was eye opening. The two combined for about $12-13 million of surplus value as both are rentals. Edgar Quero is a 20 year old C with an FV of 50 ($28M) and that alone would make the deal an overpay.
Last week the Braves acquired Pierce Johnson. A RHRP rental. His slashline?
ERA 5.90 FIP 4.54 xFIP 4.01 and a WAR of 0.2
His SV is basically breaking even. In return they netted Victor Vodnick SIRP FV 40($M) and a throw-in. That’s a solid return for a BP arm with results below the water mark.
CS – The only bit I would add here is that there are some things bigger than value at play for the Angels/White Sox move. It is a clear effort on the Halos part to commit to winning right now as an overture to Ohtani and entice him to stay long term.
JV- A solid point. One that leads me to my next deal. It’s time that Chaim Bloom shows he won’t play second fiddle to any team in the AL East. You’re not in Tampa anymore, big guy. Go make a splash.
The Deal
Red Sox get-
Mitch Keller-SP-SV $31M Ji-Hwan Bae 2B/SS/CR
Bloom adds to the rotation and gets his LHH infielder.
Pirates get-
Ceddanne Raefaela-CF-ETA:2024-FV 50($28M)
When signed, there were concerns with the hit tool. Described by FanGraphs as an “immature approach”. Things started to fall into place in 2021 when he slashed .251/.305/.424 and it has taken off in the upper systems. This year at AA and AAA he’s killing it.
AA .294/.332/.441
AAA .312/.354/.624
His highest K rate sat at 25%. Whatever he fixed in that approach is working and then some. Best part? He is a silky-smooth CF. This is a guy the Red Sox will not want to give up.
Kyle Teel-C-ETA:2026-FV 45+($8M)
Being that Kyle was a 1st round pick in this year’s draft, he’ll have to be a PTBNL (ala the Trea Turner rule). Another C, you ask? Yes. Never stop adding up the middle. Kyle has a nice pop time(1.90 sec per FG)and he is a big presence behind the dish. And despite a funky swing he carries a boom stick. After taking Mitch Jebb the FO has shown they are not opposed to funky swings. I’d call his swing unorthodox more than funky, to be honest. I can see them moving him off C or even flipping him for another MLB player. C always have a solid trade value.
Blaze Jordan-1B-ETA:2025-FV 40($2M)
Blaze has power all day and that’s the tool that GMBC would be gambling on here. The rest needs a lot of work. Finally the Buccos add a guy that Andy Haines and his teachings could help. This kid needs to learn to take a damn walk. If he can shrink the plate, you’ve got something. Nice third piece in a trade like this.
Parting Thoughts
JV-Corey, I really wanted to include an arm in a Keller deal, but the more teams I looked at, the less that seemed viable. The Rangers are a team that could do it, but I spent that package on Bednar. Arizona can do that, but then it hurts adding a bat. So I went this route. Both of our deals here would be enticing. They would also leave the Bucs naked and scrambling for SP.
It just highlights the shortcomings of moving a Keller. It just seems clear to me that getting Keller right benefits the team better than any package they would get back?
Unless a team goes all Bruce Wayne in trade, “You wanna get nuts? C’mon! Let’s get nuts!”.
Bednar though? While I love that cat I do think it’s more realistic to get a deal that could make sense for the home grown player. It may not be the popular move among the fans, but it is at least a more attainable package that I can make sense of.
CS- This is a tricky road to hoe for the front office. Dealing one or both of these two puts them in a tricky spot. It sort of signals this team is not as near the “end” of a rebuild as they want to be. If the goal is to “win” they need to make a sober analysis of where they are and make moves that might get them in a better position for long term success. The trouble is things like keeping your job and securing your own bag get in the way of those organizational goals at a certain point. This is a discussion for another time though…
All in all, I do not expect to see either sent out of the organization. But I think we have put together a few viable options that would continue to add the pieces that might help build a sustained “window” of good baseball.
Steel City Pirates 