Five Pirates Thoughts at Five – The Kids Have Changed the Game

7-31-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

The trade deadline is near, and normally I’d probably spend a bunch of time going over all the rumors and offering some suggested moves, but folks, this year honestly is boring. Hill, Hedges, Choi, and an outside shot at some fringe player, that’s about what you have, and frankly, I’m just not interested.

So take a break from it, well, mostly, with me as we talk a little about what the next steps could look like.

Let’s Do it.

1. Another Short Stop!?!?

Of all the things that happen when the Pirates acquire a very young talent, this is probably the most annoying.

Young, talented players gravitate to the most athletic spots on the field. Think back to your Pony league days, or whatever level, where did the best players play? Starting pitcher, Catcher, Centerfield and short stop right?

For Pitchers, just about anyone who’s anyone aged 16-19 or so are starting pitchers. Now, do the math, how many of them actually make it all the way through the attrition of the minor league system, and to MLB and remain starting pitchers?

In the field, you have catchers, short stops, and centerfielders. Rarely do you see a 18 year old first baseman for instance. You don’t often hear this kid is a right fielder.

You’re not drafting or acquiring positions, instead, you’re acquiring tools.

The main comment under the Santana trade on any post just about anywhere was the headline of this point, and honestly, it’s just beyond tired.

Moves like this are really about 3 things. Tools, frame (especially for international kids signed at 16 and have growing to do), and if everything is even, maybe position is the tie breaker. Tools are the first, and most important. The five tools that are graded for an MLB position player are hitting, power, running, fielding, and throwing.

They are graded on all those tools in a range from 20-80, 20 being the basement and 80 being elite.

So if a kid has even 1 tool that grades out at 80, you’ll see many teams consider them a worthy player to try to develop.

Why?

For instance, Jhonny Severino has a 55 grade tool rating on his power and arm. This translates to probably being able to throw a ball at 88 MPH and 19-22 homeruns.

That’s not a prediction of what he’ll produce, it’s a prediction of what he could produce if these tools are able to shine through everything else that happens with him.

A “shortstop” with less than a 55 Fielding tool rating, likely won’t be a short stop. Get it?

I beg you, think of these kid acquisitions more as arms/bats, and less as 3B, or SP, or CP, or whatever. None of that matters until the arm/bat prove they need to matter.

I picture many of you seeing an 18 year old SS acquired and immediately assuming they’re going to be useless because of Oneil Cruz and all the other players you see floating around the MLB level right now, and all I’m saying is if it ever comes to that, you won’t be sad. You instead should be on your knees thanking the lord that somehow this lottery ticket panned out.

These tools change as years go on, for instance, Jack Suwinski at draft time was given a 55 grade power tool, which he’s already exceeded. Plenty have undershot their tool grades too of course.

It’s a bat, that’s all this is, and a bat the team doesn’t expect, even if everything goes right before at least 2026 or 2027. By then, who knows where he’ll play, if he matters, or for that matter who will be playing where with the big club.

Finally, for those who simply don’t want the team to add youngsters at this stage, I’d suggest had Neal Huntington done it a bit more perhaps they’d have had more to promote when they started letting the 2015 core fall apart/retire.

I’m not even trying to convince you Severino is a great pickup or that they should have traded Santana, it’s not about that, it’s more about just understanding what this is, and more importantly, what we have no way of knowing about how his or the club’s future plays out.

It’s a bat, that’s it.

2. Mitch Keller Won’t Be Moved

He won’t be moved because simply, they can’t sell progress next year if they move on from one of the guys who will likely be most responsible for it.

Heading into the off season, the Pirates already likely must acquire 2 starting pitchers, moving Keller would make that 3, and even if you get one back for him, nobody wants to watch Denny Neagle’s first few years. He was acquired from Minnesota and was “league ready”, unfortunately he didn’t look league ready for 3-4 seasons.

They have plenty of that going on right now already.

The Pirates are asking for a lot, and listening, get used to that, because for ever and ever this is what’s going on behind the scenes with every MLB club. Yes, even the normally mighty Cardinals did so with Nolan Arenado this very year.

Someone out there has I’m quite sure called Ben Cherington and asked what it would take to get Oneil Cruz. I’m sure he politely listened, and declined.

If someone saw you washing your car and asked if you’d listen to an offer on your house, no strings attached, just listen. You don’t think of the school district and renovations you have planned. You listen and maybe they offer something crazy over what you know it’s worth. Maybe you find out it’s not worth what you hoped, at least to this guy. Either way, you listen because you just might be wowed.

This isn’t happening, and the pressure that will come with 2024 to show not just marginal improvement but really compete for the division isn’t going to allow them to move the one matured, under team control top of the rotation starting pitcher they have.

Things like this, well, the fears that they’re going to do something like this at this point, largely come from people who didn’t understand what they were doing in 2020, or 2021, or any year really. Really pay attention and you see how much less the Pirates are actually in the news at this deadline. There’s a reason for that, even if you don’t believe it’s true.

Rule of thumb, this year through probably 2027, don’t expect them to willingly take steps back with an eye toward the future. They’ll make moves, but none that will adversely (at least on paper) effect the timeline.

3. Real Camp Battles

Every year we say there are “battles” here and “battles” there, and every year we shut off our cameras or close out our word processors with a little snicker.

In 2024 though, I expect these to be real, and very competitive.

Most will focus on the middle infield for this conversation, and of course, that will be something incredibly cloudy as we enter Spring, but they’ll have them all over the diamond.

Catcher will be interesting. Henry Davis and Endy will both get a shot to win the starting gig, but neither are going to just sit as a backup, in fact they both might catch and the team could still consider having a third.

The outfield is taking shape, but then again, is it? Reynolds is for sure out there, Jack is for sure out there, but what about Bae, Joe, Palacios, Davis? What about some of these middle infielders who get squeezed out of the picture?

They’ll still have useful bats, but positions might be in short supply. Can a guy like Rodolfo Castro learn first base? If a guy like Liover Peguero gets squeezed out of the infield, can he play outfield? Will his bat make them find him a spot?

Is Cruz going to just automatically take SS back or do you use him elsewhere less taxing in the field and let a defensive specialist take over like Williams?

Hayes and Triolo, Nick Gonzales and Peguero, Marcano and Castro, Williams and Cruz, heck even Bae, I mean just think about it, that’s 9 guys with at least a chance to need their bat to get time.

100% great problem to have, but I’d suggest this year, right now, would be the best time to see these guys show other things they can do. Even if it’s in practice.

The more they add into this, the less opportunity some of these kids will get. They have to balance this though, you can’t go into 2024 with a ton of kids and just hope they all find a place to play, you have to bring in some pieces like Cutch again, and likely a first baseman, maybe a proven backup catcher, potentially a solid experienced outfielder. For sure have to get 2 starting pitchers, a real bullpen option who can step right in the 7th or 8th.

As they bring these guys in, we’ll probably more than once ask ourselves, geez, what the hell are we gonna do with all these guys? What about this prospect?

It’s why I hate projected out lineups for 2 years down the road. Team building is all about building options, choosing the right ones, and getting something for the parts you don’t use.

Can’t begin to tell you how excited I am for Spring Training already.

4. The Rest of 2023

If you fill out a lineup card and don’t populate it with almost all kids, you’re doing a disservice to the cause here.

That doesn’t mean Cutch, Joe, Reynolds, Hayes, Choi types shouldn’t play, but if Reynolds and Hayes for instance have back issues, let them rest a bit more, play more kids.

This is a time where you can really treat it like a sandbox environment and the Pirates must take advantage of it.

See if you can figure out how a catching rotation with 2 guys you want to get 550 at bats could work. Start mapping it out, start seeing it in action.

Instead of using Cutch as the everyday DH, make it a floating position. Instead of just having Choi start 60 games to the finish, maybe start subbing him out later in games and trying some other guys over there who you think could help. Maybe Endy is part of that puzzle when trying to get him his at bats when not catching.

I can honestly say, Austin Hedges is the only player on the roster right now that to me just doesn’t’ have a real reason to be here, and if they can’t find anyone to take him tomorrow, I expect them to make that apparent rather quickly.

The more wisely you use 2023, the easier Spring is going to be, the better the chance your educated guesses are educated well.

5. 13 Going on 26

This team as we sit here has 13 players remaining from the opening day roster. An opening day roster that provided that hot start.

That my friends is both transformative, and expected. 2023 was always going to be a youth movement, but if they hadn’t experienced all the injuries they’ve had you’re probably just seeing it ramp up now. In fact, had they not swooned after April, chances are you aren’t seeing it at this level.

Back when the team started struggling in May I said on a podcast that these players would decide what the Pirates did at the deadline, and I firmly believe that has shown itself to be the case. What they showed is, these veterans weren’t enough to keep it floating around competitive, so to the block go many of said veterans.

The best way I can put this could be, There are more players here right now who will still be here at the next deadline than there are from the beginning of this season. In other words, more than 13 guys here will be here all the way at the next deadline.

Doesn’t mean they’ll win, it just means there won’t be nearly the same kind of pressure from AAA (outside of this group that doesn’t make it out of Spring), and the need to give them ample time to prove they aren’t part of this has to be taken.