Ten Things We Have to See This Year to Prepare for 2024

8-11-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

The Pirates obviously should be trying to win as many games down the stretch as possible, at the end of the day, nothing shows improvement more than the record after all. That said, there are some underlying things that I feel are crucial to next season, and for that matter, making smart decisions in the offseason.

Today, lets talk about what I see as being the ten most important.

10. Ortiz & Contreras

Look, even if both of these kids come back and look great, this club is going to have to procure a quality free agent starter, so one thing I don’t think they can afford to do is have 2023 wrap up being completely in the dark as to whether either of these guys are at least capable of being in the 2024 rotation, even as an alternate.

Roansy has just been returned to AAA, pitched his first outing yesterday, just a couple innings. As I wrote here a few weeks ago, nobody in MiLB is going to touch his offspeed stuff, so I was disappointed to see him lean on that arsenal in his outing and all but ignore his fastball that is still only touching 93MPH. Bluntly, that’s not going to be enough for him at the MLB level, and no, I don’t think he’s a solid bullpen arm without it either.

The team has taken him to independent “pitch doctors”, and they’ve had him in their own lab at the FCL complex, but nobody seems to know where the velo has gone. Bottom line, they either get the velo back, or they have to find a way to make it move so much it works for him anyway.

Ortiz still has his fastball, but he also isn’t placing his breaking balls. Ultimately, I think he’ll be back maybe as early as next week. What we must remember with Luis is he rose from relative obscurity in the system and next thing you know he’s in MLB mowing down everyone he faced. Now that the league knows him, he’ll have to learn how to do a bit more, mainly improving his changeup offering.

These two must both be at least educated guesses by the end of this year, or this whole thing changes as it pertains to offseason requirements.

9. Get Eyes on Oneil Cruz

First of all, make sure he’s 100%, if he isn’t, there is very little purpose in risking him playing at all. That said, it seems to be that he’s on the right track and having just started a running program, he should be ready by the end of August for a rehab assignment and ultimately back in the Bigs come September.

I don’t expect him to light the world on fire, but I do think just the threat of what he can do will change the lineup, and I think that’s important to see this year. The more they know about this situation, the more informed they’ll be entering free agency.

It’s also time to put all the nonsense aside about what position he plays. We need to see how he’s moving when he comes back, and understand if it is less than is necessary to be a major league shortstop, is that something that will improve with additional healing or do we just accept we have to find him somewhere else to play?

The bat is going to require an everyday position, even if that includes DH. This decision, could effect the 40-man and potentially who is available at the prospect level to move in a deal for another need.

8. Narrow Keller’s Focus

Mitch Keller has 5 or 6 pitches depending on who you ask. Meaning, his cutter and slider are such similar pitches, statcast has a hard time distinguishing them and the sweeper (AKA Slurve) is yet another wrinkle on the same action.

I’m starting to think he may have too many to truly perfect any of them and more than that, I think he might have too many toys for any catcher who isn’t a defensive specialist nerd type to really manage and understand. Oscar Marin really needs to get his arms around this situation and help Keller be as effective as he can be.

It’s clear as day he isn’t throwing the 2-seamer that helped him find something last year nearly as much, and it’s equally clear he’s fallen in love with the cutter, unfortunately, so have lefty power hitters.

7. Get Eyes on Jared Jones

In my mind, he’s the next starting pitching prospect truly worth excitement. His stuff plays, and he’s working hard to develop a more effective changeup. Jones is at some point going to have to get an opportunity and with the state of the starting rotation it makes too much sense to get the ball rolling.

In case you’re not sensing a theme here in the early going, it’s super important to this whole thing, and to me, you can’t enter 2024 hoping one or two of these youngsters can be the answer. Maybe they are, but if you want to truly compete next year, the rotation can’t be filled with blindly answered questions and hopes, it has to be filled with educated guesses, and reasonably sure things. The more they find out now, in theory, the smarter they can be in free agency.

6. Work Henry in Behind the Dish

I’ll be very honest, I don’t think Henry right now is a very good catcher. He has the arm, but I believe Endy is already far enough ahead of him it’s not ultimately going to be worth the effort to try to get Henry there.

That said, Henry wants it, and not that I think he’d make a problem, but simply so it doesn’t become something he always wonders about, to me, its important to let him have a shot at it in September, and I mean a real shot, give him a couple games back there, DH Endy to keep him going too, but let Henry have what he’s seen as his dream. Do it for a few weeks like that. Again, a real shot.

Best case scenario, he looks better doing the job than practicing the job. Worst case, you focus him hard on Right Field and let the athlete do what athletes do. Much like Cruz, the bat needs to be in the lineup, and almost every day somewhere. That at the end of the day is the important thing. For both Henry and Cruz, I believe they can find a place to play and do it well. At this rate though, feels like we’ll have a very hard time “not wasting an arm at first base” doesn’t it?

5. Avoid Misplacing Credit

While you have a bunch of kids, too many to be overseen directly on a game by game basis by your hitting coach, don’t misinterpret their success for part of the hitting plan. In other words, I don’t care if the team ultimately blames Andy Haines for what this offense turned into for 3 solid months this year and a full season in 2022 or not. What I care about is settling for Andy Haines being good enough for this group of hitters.

Hitters with different skill sets, some being held back by an approach that limits their effectiveness. Others being rendered useless entirely at times because they’ve become offensively speaking one trick ponies.

Even if they think he’s done a good job, they have to see it’s not working for some of the most important hitters they have, guys they’ve locked up for quite some time. Guys who are no longer looking to Haines for answers exclusively. It’s time to upgrade, and I’d like to see one for game to game scouting report stuff and one focused on swing mechanics.

4. Evaluate the Fielding Coaches

The Pirates in 2020 openly set the goal of improving their team defense, and as poor as that ballclub was, they were definitively excellent defensively that year. Ever since, its fallen off a cliff. This happens with young players of course, but they simply have to improve.

Bryan Reynolds, Henry Davis and Jack Suwinski are all what this club at the moment considers to be their best offensive lineup. Henry has the best arm, but he has trouble reading the ball off the bat, and takes some very ill advised routes to balls. Again, not his fault, he’s barely gotten started out there, but Jack and Bryan, well, they’ve been outfielders all their lives. I’m not sure either are going to win a gold glove if what I’ve seen this year is what there is. I suggest coaching here because honestly, I think all 3 bats play, and that being the case, there’s nothing else to be done but upgrade the players.

I don’t think I’ve seen enough improvement on throwing decisions, routes to balls, or for that matter where the coaches place them at times. Reynolds and Jack aren’t vocal enough to truly take charge, honestly folks, without making it sound like it’s the end of the world, I simply only think they’ll get so good out there as a unit. So let’s at least know we’re coaching the hell out of them.

3. Get Back to Forcing Action on the Bases

I know a lot of this was about Ji-hwan Bae, but the rest of the team has speed too, let’s get back to forcing action. Make the defense worry what not paying attention could cause. Distract the pitching. It was such a huge part of what worked in April, and despite losing a guy like Bae to the IL, it just completely disappeared from their plan, and largely the speed is still here if not added to.

Maybe baserunners became so precious due to the universally preached hitting plan they stopped having the intestinal fortitude to push the envelope, but to me it feels like a big piece of what gives this offense potential. It’s not loaded with 40 homerun bombers, it’s loaded with gap power and speed, at least for now. Use it.

2. Derek Shelton Manage to Win With No Apology

If it means Jared Triolo doesn’t play for 5 straight days because Peguero is red hot, so be it. If it means Perdomo is a better choice to close out a game and not Bednar because there are 2 big lefties coming up, so be it.

If Connor Joe is literally just a pinch hitter the rest of 2023, so be it.

Manage as though your job depends on it, because whether the Pirates had the expectation of winning a lot in 2023 or not, at some point the reaper comes for everyone. Knowing this mix of players is largely returning in 2024, we fans shouldn’t wait to see them try to use them the way they would if they were fighting for a pennant.

It could only benefit Shelton to push these kids so he knows better what he has come Spring.

1. Reconnect the City to its Baseball Team…Again

Don’t say it out loud, cause we’ll all slap you down for that. But make sure fans understand all the garbage they watched since this management team came to town has been in an effort to get here, right where we are.

We have some good looking young players, some tough decisions coming and add to it in a professional way this offseason. Make sure it’s clear, tryout season is over, now it’s time to prove yourself and hold a spot, because there are other candidates and we’re going to pick who’s performing best, not the nicest guy, bet that.

Let fans know you’re serious by addressing some long lasting problems and making sure they’re addressed for longer than just 2024.

Have a little belief that if you spend it, they will come, and support this exciting young group you’ve to your credit put together, but don’t forget we paid a bigger price than you for that effort. We watched a lot of struggle, with a promise of doing what was necessary when the time comes.

Now it’s up to you to execute the show part of show and tell.