Hump Day Pirates Q&A

8-16-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

I’m more and more impressed every week with the quality and thoughtfulness of the questions you all pose. First, I take it as a huge compliment you think I’m the right person to tackle some of them, and second, I can’t tell you how many times I read through the submissions and haven’t even considered something that sends me into a whole new direction of thinking.

Thank you all, and here we go!

Question 1

What is your opinion on the bullpen games this year? It has worked out well at times. Good way to see what new guys have. Do any other teams do this? – Wilbert Matthews

I mean, let me start here Wilbert, I don’t believe the club necessarily wants to be forced into bullpen games, especially not Derek Shelton. He’s been visibly and audibly frustrated with how beaten to hell his bullpen has been, and was last year too. So, even if it works out and they win a game here and there going all pen, it certainly has measurable and functional detriment too. Yes, other teams do it, regularly. Tampa you could argue runs their entire season like that for instance. The second half of Pirates seasons have been this way because two straight years Cherington has dealt a veteran starter with no real safety net in the minors, and I doubt they expected both Ortiz and Contreras to struggle like this.

Question 2

Could they end up trading Termarr Johnson because of Peggy or is Johnson far enough away from arrival on the Pirates? – Frank Rao

Frank, they could wind up trading Peggy, Johnson, Gonzales, Williams, whomever really. This team right this second has Cruz, Hayes, Reynolds, Henry, Endy and maybe, maybe, Jack as guys who you can claim have for sure locked themselves in for a roster spot in 2024. Peggy has done very well, I’d probably even add him to that little list, but knowing who they’ll deal especially when most of them remain largely unknowns as we sit here is impossible.

They need pitching, and I can’t tell you any of these guys are more valuable than that might be in the greater scheme of things.

That said, Johnson would only be used in a really big move, you’re talking a starter with maybe 3 years left to have him included in any deal.

Question 3

General thoughts on Paul Skenes brief outings in FCL and in Bradenton? – John JGor492 on Twitter

If he were anything less than a hot knife through butter in the FCL and Bradenton, I might actually worry. OK, nothing that happens in 2 innings could really make me do that.

He looks confident in his stuff (why wouldn’t he?), the stuff is very real, both the fastball and slider in particular are plus plus pitches right now. Changeup plays, but I’m not sure we’ll know how well until he faces some guys used to seeing an advanced version.

There’s a lot of Gerrit Cole in him.

The thing I noticed most though and somehow completely didn’t in his college outings, he moves from the left and right of the rubber, and I mean all the way left or right depending on if he’s facing a lefty or righty. I’m not saying that’s a problem, but when I notice things like that, my first question is often ok, how will MLB players exploit that?

All in all, positive vibes.

Question 4

Jack Brannigan is he a guy or just a guy? If he’s a guy where can you see him playing? – Adam Yarkovsky

I can’t remember many players who weren’t high first rounders that I was ready to make such a claim about at the high A level.

That said, defensively, he’s not all that far behind Hayes and Triolo at 3rd base and unlike the other two (despite Hayes recent performance) the power seems real, and his frame says he has room to add even more.

Is he a guy or a GUY? Honestly can’t say yet, but I ultimately think he has shown more than to assume he is just going to stall.

Question 5

Outside of diehards, most Pirates [fans] are largely done paying attention for the year. With that said: what is the argument you would make to that crowd for the Pirates future looking bright (next year) that can stop short of “every player needs to get noticeably better”? – Sully

Well Sully, I won’t get into the first part, I can’t fairly evaluate what I’m watching if I allow bitterness to cloud what I’m watching, and I never consider it my charter to convince anyone to watch or care, or whatever you’re getting at.

Since you asked though, my biggest selling point is, I think there might be 2 or 3 players on this team who have reached their ceiling. Bednar for sure, Hayes maybe, Reynolds maybe. That doesn’t mean everyone else is automatically going to keep going in the right direction, but it does mean for the most part there is a ton of room before they approach it.

A full offseason for guys like Endy, Peggy, Henry, Jack, Triolo, Bae, man, I think Spring could be really eye opening, depending on your expectations.

Bottom line, Almost everyone here at least on paper “could” matter because they all have a ton of team control and a lot of room before maxing out what scouts see as feasible growth.

Question 6

The young pitching that we have seen come up has been pretty dreadful. Roansy, Ortiz, and Priester have been major disappointments thus far. Should we have bigger/better expectations when we see the next waive…Jones, Skenes, Solometo or expect more of the same? – Ryan Antonucci

Roansy and Ortiz were dreadful when they came up? I beg to differ my friend. To lump them into the same issue we’re seeing Priester deal with to me is off base.

Roansy went from throwing 97 regularly to barely touching 94 on occasion and really resting at 92. Worse, nobody seems to understand fully why. Ortiz will be back soon, and I think he’ll get back on the horse.

Now, Priester, I don’t expect you saw, but before he was called up, everything you’ve watched, I wrote would happen. His fastball simply doesn’t have shape or speed, and unless he’s going to become a guy who hides the ball super well, he’s going to have to change that.

The other option is for him to be pinpoint accurate with it, but the most likely outcome is to lean on his 2-seam.

Jones is not the same. He has a wicked heater, a killer breaking ball and has very recently introduced an increasingly effective changeup. Doesn’t mean he won’t struggle, just means it won’t be for the same reasons.

Solometo has a funky delivery and his velocity has ticked up to a point where my goodness, he looks like he could be scary. Again, kids very often get punched in the mouth when they get to the Bigs, so I’d always bet on that side of the equation.

As for Skenes, hey, let’s let him get his feet wet. That said, MiLB hitters aren’t going to touch him often, so he’ll have little choice but to learn what he needs to learn here.

Nothing about onboarding kids is even, fair, predictable, and you couldn’t have picked a group of pitchers more diverse in issues or talent level. There is no die cut for this process.

Question 7

What does your gut tell you about Cruz? Do we see him back in September or since we’re not pushing for a post season spot, just letting him rehab in AAA away from the spotlight and be full steam ahead next season? – JW Sanders

Barring a setback, you’ll absolutely see him in September. Being in the race doesn’t matter in any way shape or form here. There’s no service time to be saved, there’s nothing to be gained to have someone like that not face MLB pitching for over 9 months.

If for no other reason than to give fans a better glimpse of what 2024 could look like, the big man will be back and soon.

Question 8

What’s with Henry’s bat? – Ryan Antonucci

Right now, he is trying to stay back and not swing over the breaking pitches and it has him swinging through fastballs. Early on, he was dead on the heater, but as the league adjusted, so to has Henry had to make some changes.

Once he shows he can lay off, he’ll see more heaters and start to come around.

I’d also say before games, Henry is taking RF reps, Catching reps and batting practice. There’s a lot going on for a kid who was just in college 2 years ago, and coming from a team that really just let him be an athlete and didn’t’ focus much on changing how he approached anything.

This offseason will be very good for him. The rest, and getting in the lab to fine tune some of that stuff in the batter’s box. In the minors, everyone pitched him inside off the plate, up here everyone pitches him down and away with spin.

I’d worry much more if he was just not making contact, as it stands his BABIP and actual results don’t line up all that well which tends to push that he’s been unlucky to a degree.

Question 9

What is more concerning in the off-season, starting pitching or 1st base help? – Casey

I’m not sure this is even a competition. Starting pitching.

Have to have it, can’t expect to improve in 2024 with Mitch, Oviedo and a bunch of rookies or 2nd years. If they went cheap and we had Rivas and Joe all next season I’d absolutely jump up and down yelling about it, but as long as the rotation is dealt with, you could sell me it’s ok.

Vice Versa, not so much.

Question 10

As you know, one of major concerns w Priester is his fastball. I understand he can compensate for MPH with good location but can a SP at age 22 learn how to add MPH? Is that something that can improve w a change in mechanics? – Rhino71

Contreras could throw a perfect game and the fan response would be “But what was his velo?” which I completely get. But there’s never any context. Where exactly does he (and Priester, I guess) need to be MPH wise with their fastball (average and max velo) to be good MLB starters? -Nick Cammuso

Similar questions, but parts I really wanted to hit on from each.

For Rhino’s question, yes, guys can at times add velocity. Anthony Solometo just did so this offseason and it’s taken him from a crafty lefty to a potential left handed killer. We’ve also seen Keller add velocity last offseason, and he’s way older than 22.

Now, Nick, there is no magic number. For Contreras though, none of his mix plays without it. That’s why it’s such a big deal. His entire arsenal is developed around that 97-98 MPH heater, and while he can still get outs with his plus curve and his slider, there simply isn’t anything to keep hitters off them without thinking they have to cover that velocity. Worse, as his velocity fell for the 4 seam, it didn’t for his slider, so there isn’t’ even a speed difference now.

Priester has plenty to use, he just needs more of a show me fastball, but it has to be precisely placed. It doesn’t move much, and it’s not fast. No deception on the heater and knowing he can’t throw all 5 of his pitches for strikes all that often, dudes just wait and tee off. His best fastball is his sinker, but since his call up he’s rarely used it beyond his first 3 innings of work.

Pitchers can do things to mitigate this. They can hide the ball better, tunnel their other pitches with it, or even just learn to command them with precision, but there’s a reason Greg Maddux is seen as such a god brother, cause mostly, it’s better to just have a big heater.

For Quinn, I’d recommend adding a little cut action but even that could change the effectiveness of his slider. Probably looking at a guy who just needs to find a way to throw at his max (95ish) and have it go where he wants more often. Easier said than done of course, but that’s why Marin makes the big bucks, pause for Pirates Big Bucs laughter.

Question 11

Does the payroll expand again this off-season? – Mike Teti

It should Mike. Pitching is expensive, and I see no way to improve without it. That said, it’s a very young team, all for the most part on entry level deals. They don’t have nearly as much room to add this year.

2 pitchers could equal what they spent this year, modest raises for Reynolds, Bednar, Keller, feels like if it goes up, it won’t be by a ton.

On the free agent market, I’d get 2 starters and a first baseman. Spending someone else’s money is easy and fun, so I would budget 30 million for those acquisitions. Add in Cutch for 4 or 5, and it’d be pretty close to what they did this year.

Question 12

Gary, it appears Davis and many of the young hitters try to pull every pitch regardless of location. Are they programmed to pull only? Is this a reflection on the hitting coaches philosophy organizationally? – Mike Petrosky

Have you met Ke’Bryan Hayes Mike?

I kid, but no, of all the things Andy Haines does that I feel don’t work, this isn’t’ one of them. They preach center of the field on the fastball, opposite field on off speed, but these kids are all gearing up for the first taste of consistent velocity and when they don’t get it, they pull.

Pretty typical for youngsters actually.

Nick Gonzales who’s already been sent back down as you know is a great example of this. He’ll hit more homeruns to right center than he will left because that’s his approach, but once he got here and settled in he was out in front of almost everything most of the time.

Anyone who isn’t adjusting almost constantly, probably isn’t playing regularly.

Question 13

Do you think we have a chance at a Wild Card spot? – Piratas Mexico

I mean, technically, yes. But there are too many teams to jump over at this time of year. 8.5 games is a ton on August 16th, and I don’t see the starting pitching to really make a charge right now.

That said, on a given night or series, I don’t think many contenders will want to play them. Series like the one against Atlanta, that’s this team’s World Series in 23.

Question 14

What are your thoughts on the prospect promotion incentive program? Do you think Jared Jones could be a candidate for that? – Robert Hagelin

Overall, I think it’s a nice idea that really doesn’t have enough benefit to prompt teams that are worried about years of control to do anything different.

With Jones in particular, let me put it this way, if they show up to Spring and he has a real shot to win a spot out of camp, this team didn’t do enough in the offseason to “compete”.

In my mind, you have room for 1 rookie or untested starter in this rotation, and with all the other pieces lining up offensively, I don’t think they can afford to count on a guy like Jones.

And I love the kid Robert, really do. I think he’ll get a shot during 2024, but again, I don’t think they can afford to head into the season thinking that’s what gets them in the conversation. Every rookie or youngster that comes up next year is going to likely have to beat someone out or wait for injury/ineffectiveness.

We haven’t seen this in Pittsburgh for quite some time, not even when they were successful last decade.