Detailing the Pirates Roster with an Eye Toward 2024

9-9-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

As soon as the last pitch is thrown in 2023 there will be immediate calls for blindly spending money and judgements will be passed on players who in some cases have had little more than 100 at bats in the league, if that.

Before we get there, I thought we might do well to go through the roster as we know it. Put the players in buckets that represent their likelihood to be part of this team in 2024 and in many cases, beyond.

These exercises will often expose real areas of weakness, not just the ones you see right now, but where a lack of depth might leave the club exposed soon if not addressed.

So today, let’s start by putting the players we know about into what I consider to be the buckets. You may disagree with some of these categories or who I put in these buckets, but keep in mind, I’m trying to be as emotionless and clinical as I can be. Reality dictates, “sure” things aren’t all over the place for the Pirates, at least, they shouldn’t be if we actually want to see a competitive team next year.

1. The Locks to Start

“To Start” Lets begin there, because when I list off some bullpen arms in this category, that immediately is going to be confusing. Maybe a better way to put it is, players who will 100% be on the opening day roster and be called upon to perform with no reservations.

Bryan Reynolds (OF) – Bryan is and will be a fixture on the Pirates roster for quite some time. For the first offseason since the Cherington regime began, there is no question, Reynolds will be here, and he’ll start just about every day.

Ke’Bryan Hayes (3B) – Hayes and his contract have always been both reasonable and good for team and player. Hayes has now on multiple occasions shown an ability to produce offense, but consistency has remained elusive. Regardless, next season he’ll be there on opening day at 3rd base.

David Bednar (CP) – You can believe trading Bednar would be wise, it certainly would return quite a bit of prospect or maybe even Major League talent, but closer deals are best served for the deadline when teams get desperate for that one missing element, not in the offseason when teams aren’t sure how much they’ll need it. David has a better shot of being extended (right or wrong) than he does being traded. Either way, he’s your closer in 2023.

Colin Holderman (RP) – Holderman it could be argued is the most likely successor to Bednar should the team decide to move on within the next year or two. His stuff is killer, his control of said stuff fails him at times, but it’s hard to deny the talent, or the fact he’ll be in the back end mix next March.

Carmen Mlodzinski (RP) – The Pirates converted Carmen from a starter to a reliever in the pre season, and to his credit he embraced it. First as a long man, then as a fireman, and now as a trusted back end arm who’s absence was felt when he was placed on the IL earlier this season. Of all the names on my list for this category, Carmen is arguably the most controversial, but I can’t ignore the stoic nature in which he’s applied his talent and his ability to pressure situations. He’ll be in this mix.

Oneil Cruz (SS, DH) – I don’t think it’s fair to say we know what Oneil Cruz will be quite yet. We, and he of course, were robbed of seeing what he could do with his sophomore season, but there is simply no reason to expect anything short of Cruz being on the opening day roster, likely at short stop, but regardless of position taking over 550 at bats in 2024.

Mitch Keller (SP) – It doesn’t matter what you call him. Ace, stopper, or just plain the best they have, Mitch Keller will be the Pirates opening day starter in 2024 and the answer is simple as to why, they won’t possibly afford someone better than Mitch and if they aren’t foolish, they’ll do what’s necessary to ensure Keller doesn’t see his own free agency options after 2025 and extend him. Rest assured, if that doesn’t happen this offseason/early season it likely won’t come to pass. I have doubt they or this build can afford that, more than the price tag for replacing him anyway.

Johan Oviedo (SP) – The Pirates swung a trade with a rival for a young Cuban defector with big upside and little experience. To his and the Pirates credit, Johan has shown elite stuff and the ability to put it all together and eat innings in the process. I make no claim he’s a finished project, or that he’ll remain in the rotation for the next 6 years, but I can’t fathom a scenario in which he doesn’t begin the season in the rotation.

Endy Rodriguez (C) – Endy has already shown an ability to improve defensively, just since his call up, and his ability to work with a pitching staff remains a work in progress, but Endy will continue growing, and he’ll do it at the MLB level.

That’s 9 members of the 26-man that I see as complete locks to start the season in Pittsburgh.

Keep in mind, this segment isn’t about likely, it’s about locks. So if I missed someone you think should be here, solid chance they’re in the next section.

2. Most Likely, but Just Short of Assured

This one is tough, for me too. My first name on the list will probably illustrate this better than the rest.

Jack Suwinski – I know, I know, there is no grey with Jack, you either make silly comparisons to Willie Stargell that set off an entire generation who light torches or you claim he’s nothing more than a platoon hitter and up come the pitchforks. Bottom line, Jack has a ton of raw and MLB proven power. No team, let alone the Pirates are likely to give up on that. He’s in this category for one simple reason, I could see them adding an outfielder from the outside and if they did it’d be very unlikely the club would have room for a guy they want to see very regular at bats for.

Henry Davis – His struggles in the Bigs were greater than most have let on, but not so much that he’ll slip his way off the roster. He’ll start, and despite all of you who believe you know how a player who just started learning a position will ultimately take to it, the team isn’t exactly anxious to sully their 1:1 selection. So I ask you this simply, if they don’t believe Right Field to be what they ultimately think is best for Henry, why would they do it? Even on draft day, this was a plausible outcome. Revise history all you like but Davis was drafted where he was because he had the most advanced bat on the board. Everything else will work itself out.

Conner Joe – It’s possible the Pirates could upgrade their depth at the MLB level, but Conner Joe is every bit what you’d want in that position. Solid off the bench, solid at a bunch of different positions, good in the room and even while ice cold off the bench takes a good at bat. He’ll finish this season with 10 dingers and at least close to 30 doubles in limited action. That limited action figures to be diminished further next season, so I’m comfortable with Joe filling that role. Note, not to START anywhere with regularity, perhaps a platoon option, but a capable and veteran backup.

Ji-Hwan Bae – He’s shown versatility, and his speed simply has no rival right now close to the league. He’s shown some good things in CF, and enough ability to hold down 2B if need be to get his bat and legs in the lineup. He’s here because while everything I just said is true, I simply can’t pretend he’s locked himself into any role that makes him irreplaceable.

Liover Peguero – Hard to figure right? He’s shown some really easy power, but he has bouts of really nothing short of losing patience for games at a time. Ton of potential, probably the second base leader in the clubhouse, but he’s catchable isn’t he? He’s in this bucket because in my mind he’s done enough both at SS and 2B to show he can handle them defensively and he has more offensive potential than some other options.

Jose Hernandez – He’s done far more than almost any Rule 5 pick in recent memory. A potential back end lefty, with plus stuff who could truly be a standout next year when given an offseason to fine tune.

Jason Delay – His picture should probably be next to the definition of backup catcher. Hits enough to chip in on occasion, prorated out his stats are near the top of the league defensively, really headsy clubhouse guy for the pitching staff to work with.

That’s 7 more, bringing our running total to 16 of the 26. 4 RP, 2 SP, and 10 position players.

3. Possibly, but They Have to Win It

Nick Gonzales – He’s had a cup of coffee, around 100 at bats. Can’t make his promotion a given, but it feels like it really has to happen in 2024 or it just might not here in Pittsburgh. He can play the infield spots including 3B, so he might compete directly with our next two contestants.

Jared Triolo – Jared can play just about everywhere. The team hasn’t used him as such, but he does have it in there if they want to find him a spot they could. That said, there are only so many spots, this is and should remain an open competition, might even in some ways turn into a revolving door.

Alika Williams – The glove is legit. I have no qualms saying loud and proud he’s the best fielding SS this team has AAA on up. I’m just not sure the bat plays enough to legitimize giving him a spot. Even if say Oneil Cruz were to stumble defensively, you’d be hard pressed to convince me Peguero isn’t a better option. I think Alika has a tough road, but I do appreciate the glove, it truly has elite potential.

Colin Selby – Colin has had some success since being called up, but when the team chose to protect him on the 40-man from the Rule 5 draft in December, it was less about how great he’d pitched in the minors than it was about his big fastball. When you grab a Rule 5 guy it’s usually about a tool that just jumps off the page. Well, we haven’t really seen it on display, a common theme with this development system so far if I’m honest. What was 99-100 is now more like 96-97. A good heater, but not the same. The back end is getting full, so carving out a niche as an opener/couple inning guy might have to work out for him.

Angel Perdomo – I for one loved what we saw from Perdomo, but you could see this season ending injury get in his way, especially if it slows down his beginning of 2024. The need for a veteran lefty in the pen might push the team to at the very least have Perdomo start in AAA if not DFA should the injury force him to starting the season on the 60-day.

Ryan Borucki – Another lefty, the Pirates have done well fining options this year in this department, but Ryan is a tough one. He’s out of options so he can’t be sent down without DFA and he’s entering his final year of arbitration. Now, he would still be extremely cheap, like under a mil, but is he good enough to be a guaranteed MLB arm? All I can say is other teams didn’t seem to think so.

Thomas Hatch – Hatch plays right off the Borucki discussion. He does have an option remaining and he’s pre-arbitration, meaning if you really found something here, he’s here under team control for just about as long as the 28 year old will remain effective should they so choose.

4. Options but Make Them Earn it

Quinn Priester, Max Kranick, Andre Jackson, Roansy Contreras, Luis Ortiz, Osvaldo Bido, Canaan Smith Njigba, Yerry De Los Santos, Baily Falter, Jackson Wolf, Dauri Moreta, Jared Jones, Anthony Solometo, Sean Sullivan, Paul Skenes, Termarr Johnson, Joshua Palacios, Rivas…..

and…..breathe.

Point is, the Pirates have a bunch of guys like this who are already on the 40-man or top prospects and might play a role, but a competitive team knows a lot of depth, doesn’t equal a lot of answers most of the time. If this were 2022, I’d be proudly talking about how excited I was to see which 5 or 6 of these guys should make it but that has to change now. The youth movement started the clock, those who missed the cut this year have to displace someone else.

None of this even factors in Andrew McCutchen who will assuredly be back in some capacity. It doesn’t discuss JT Brubaker or Mike Burrows who had early season TJ which could potentially have them on schedule to at least threaten participation late in 2024. I’m not confident about what they’ll do with Marcano who will start the season on the IL.

5. Obvious Holes

Everyone is going to parrot the same things this year, but there’s a reason, what this team needs is painfully obvious.

Three things in particular.

First, while they have to fill holes, they also have to trust some of the kids they’ve already brought North. They need the kids to improve. It’s illogical to believe they all will, that’s how holes open for others. Look at a guy like Nick Gonzales, he’s hitting now, but when Cruz is back he’s in for a dogfight for playing time. It could force him to a new position, it could force him to AAA. This process of youngsters improving will continue and ultimately if this all works will be reason number one.

Next, starting pitching. Mitch Keller, Johan Oviedo, that’s it. Everyone else they have, regardless of how you feel about them. Paul Skenes is every bit someone you should rightly want to see next season, but when you have this many parts and pieces in place, you can’t just toss a rookie at it and cross your fingers, even a phenom. No, the Pirates need to at least partially fill out this rotation externally. Add two, one for a couple years with some MLB success under their belt already, another for a one year type deal and leave the last spot open for whomever from that laundry list wins it. This insulates you from relying on rookies, but leaves room for them to push each other too.

Finally, first base. I have a hunch it’s going to be Carlos Santana, there’s just so much smoke to it, it’s hard to believe the two sides haven’t already kinda discussed it. And in the background regardless of who they sign, they have to get someone started in AAA moving over there. No, it doesn’t mean Nunez or whoever can’t get better, but just from what I wrote you can see some prospects with decent bats might not have a home. Try CSN, or Gonzo, someone. See if you can make them fit there and don’t waste the bat. Later in the season, it might just be a nice addition.

6. Could Upgrade

Despite my praise of Jason Delay, you could see the team want to upgrade backup catcher, honestly though, I don’t think they’ll find one that matters. You could potentially if offense what your goal but in the Pirates case the starter is supposed to do that.

I could see an outfielder but the way I see it they’d have to almost do so at the expense of Jack or Bae, so it’s tough for me to see them do it. That said, it would be nice to have another right handed option aside from Joe. If Cutch could just play RF like once a week this isn’t where I’d add.

A reliever is always possible, especially a lefty. This bullpen is shaping up already so it would have to be a really solid lefty.