Five Pirates Thoughts at Five – The 70 Win Mark

9-18-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Today is a big long look at what’s coming. Not the end of the season, but how this whole thing will progress.

1. Playoff Push in 2024

It was nice to hear Ben Cherington acknowledge this will be the goal in 2024, but honestly, I didn’t really need to hear it to know it simply had to be the target. The progression up to this point from the time this regime took over to now has gone almost exactly the way I scripted it out back in 2020, up to and including the 2023 season in which I said the team would look better and more fleshed out in September than April, and that they’d flirt with .500. Well, having that still on the table with 12 games left (even acknowledging they won’t get there) is the very definition of flirting with it.

There are holes, just like there were every other year heading into the offseason, but there are far fewer year over year which again is exactly what you’re hoping for when you enter one of these build efforts.

After 2020 there were something like 2-4 “answers”, after 2021, 3-5, following 2022, 5-7 and finally after this season they’re closer to 10-12. All of those numbers are locks to return and likely start, but there is a healthy “bullpen” if you will of plausible contributors too.

Bottom line, it’s time to spend some money.

This off season the Pirates spent about 35 million to fill out the roster, and heading into this Winter they’ll need to fill probably 2 spots in the rotation and spend some cash at first base.

What’s funny to me is people watched this team spend that 35 million when the team itself actually filling all the holes was very unlikely, but now that the team should legitimately be ready to set their sites higher, the assumption seems to be that “Nutting won’t spend” to get there.

OK, I mean he is cheap, but there’s little reason to expect they won’t at least spend that amount or close to it right? OK, Cutch is 5 mil again, let’s just cross that off the list. That still leaves 30 million, if they don’t increase it at all for a first baseman and a couple pitchers.

Bottom line folks, we aren’t asking for them to start over here and make it work on a shoe string, we’re asking for them to do at least what they did last year and the playoffs are probably in reach. Add more, increase the chances.

I 100% get why nobody trusts Nutting, I’ve been here too folks. That said, I look at what was done in the Winter prior to this season and I just can’t get to the place where he comes into this one pounding his fist they need to spend less.

The best way I can put this is thinking of it like a Thanksgiving dinner. If you’re cooking this feast for the first time you have to buy the seasonings, probably have to get serving ware, cook ware you likely never needed but suddenly do. Your budget has to be high because simply you don’t have much to build on. The next year you have to cook this dinner, you probably have a bunch of that stuff now, so you can replicate the meal and it’ll cost you far less, or, you can spend close to what you did and add in a high dollar roast filet and have guests talking ’til Christmas. Either way, the meal isn’t going to get worse. You aren’t just going to decide to forgo the Turkey.

Worry as much as you like, that’s your right, but I think filling those holes is an easy thumbs up from everyone involved, and keep in mind I’m asking that some of those “holes” be considered empty when in reality guys like Paul Skenes are right there.

None of this is meant to convince you Nutting will do everything that’s needed to reach a World Series, it’s instead meant to look no further than 2024, a year in which this team should take a jump forward. He’ll spend that much, and I’m not aiming to make a point beyond than that.

2. What About Nick Gonzales?

Before I get into specifics about Nick, let me just say this first. Good players, or at least players who look like they COULD be good aren’t going to make this club. That’s where we are now. Not just this year, but next year too.

I say that because as of right now, prospects don’t just come up because they might have a higher ceiling. Prospects come up now when they look ready to get a shot AND there is a place for them to play at least enough to reasonably expect them to not go stale.

That’s Nick’s issue right now. He can’t be expected to get regular at bats with Peguero, Triolo, and Bae all taking regular turns at second base. You can take Bae out of that mix, but all that does is move him to CF, move Jack to RF and barely cracks the door at second base.

Is he better than Alika Williams? Well, not in the field, but at the plate, sure. Alika has had 16 at bats in the entire month of September. That right there is why a direct swap of Nick Gonzales for Alika Williams doesn’t work. You can’t have Nick up here sitting, taking 16 at bats for 20 days. Now toss in that the only reason Williams has gotten the playing time he has is his glove at SS and you could see that decrease.

Next year, Oneil Cruz will be in this mix and it’ll make the congestion even greater.

I don’t say this to illustrate Gonzales is a failed prospect, I say it because meritocracy tends to die at the alter of at bats, at least while guys like Gonzales have options.

This certainly doesn’t have to be the case next year, and Nick should in no way feel he can’t overtake Peguero in 2024. Just like he shouldn’t ignore that Termarr Johnson is breathing down his neck.

Look, as we sit here, Henry Davis shouldn’t consider his roster spot a lock for 2024. This is eventually where meritocracy heads for everyone with a strong farm.

Don’t be shocked to see some moves with some of these guys who simply can’t or won’t find a place.

Nick has done his part since being sent back to AAA, no doubt. I just ask you, where does he fit right now? Who’s at bats does he take. Again if the answer is Alika Williams, I’ll agree with you, he’s a better talent, but is 20-25 at bats in a month enough for a prospect like that? Should Triolo move aside for the more powerful Gonzales? Has Peggy not impressed you with his pop?

Cherry picking the roster for a player who may or may not be “worse” than a prospect is far too simplistic for trying to actually understand roster moves, especially at this stage.

3. The Inevitable Paul Skenes Bitch Fest

Long before the season starts in 2024, we’ll be treated to the excellent discourse surrounding Paul Skenes. Let’s go ahead and knock them on their ass one by one.

If he isn’t in the rotation on day one then they aren’t trying! – OK, but it seems to me a team that is “trying” doesn’t head into a fresh season counting on a starting pitcher they just drafted every fifth day. They maybe give him an opportunity to earn it, but you certainly don’t prepare for it, plan on it. Paul is a terrifically talented player, but he’s still a kid, a draft pick with a ton of room to reach his ceiling and for that matter a relatively high floor. If this were 2022, I might advise the same, giving him as much launch pad as possible before meaningful baseball came to town, but here we are, on the cusp of meaningful baseball, now he has to be ready, not brought here to train. He may well be, but he’d have to win that 5th spot in Spring to show me.

If Skenes isn’t good enough to start on day one, he was the wrong pick! – Well, it’s kinda more of the same isn’t it? Again, if this were 2022, he would have a much more feasible claim to starting out of the gate regardless of how assured the team would be he’s “ready”. Listen, this is, and will be the Pirates top pitching prospect until the day he graduates, but that in no way guarantees that happens this April. It certainly won’t make it the wrong pick. Dylan Crews being a good player won’t either. There’s room in this league for lots of players to be good, if Skenes is a successful starting pitcher for half a decade here, successful pick.

Super 2! Whaaaaaaa! – Yup, good chance Paul Skenes is a Super 2 candidate. First, lets worry about whether it matters before we get mad about it. I could make a pretty solid case that the Pirates would be foolish to not at least get the extra year, regardless of reaching Super 2, but again, it only matters if it looks like he’s better than one of the 5 guys this club brings in and pencils in. Mitch Keller, Johan Oviedo, 2 free agents, and a fifth spot to be “won” in my mind would be the idea scenario. Now if Skenes looks like he should win that spot, hey, I’ll be the first one yelling to get it done. But he’s got a ton of players with MLB experience to jump over already. Look, all I’m saying is the Pirates don’t need to grease the skids, a good competition won’t hurt anyone.

Long story short folks, let’s let the prospect guide us, not bloggers, podcasters, or radio hosts who will all take their crack at giving us our narrative driven marching orders.

Finally, this is a player that is not likely to pitch 200 innings in 2024, he’s much more likely to cap somewhere in the 150-170 range if everything goes incredibly well. I say this to also get in front of the inevitable complaints that he isn’t being allowed to destroy the league as we all know every first round pick does immediately with zero hiccups.

A big part of me hates being this guy. Feels like I can’t illustrate points like this without coming off as not thinking highly of the kid, but I promise you that’s not the case. I’m simply saying even a supremely talented 1:1 like Skenes doesn’t deserve the expectation many will heap on him, nor is it healthy for a team planning to finally rise from the depths of obscurity to count on it. My main intention is to ensure he’s not seen as a savior, even as at some point he very much so will need to wind up feeling that way if the ultimate prize is to be achieved.

4. Don’t Sweat over the Fringes

This roster isn’t filled with All-Stars, most aren’t, even the best teams have guys who fill roles and exist on the fringes of their roster.

For the Pirates, they have plenty of candidates to contribute they’ve discovered, but as we go through this over the next few seasons and this off season for that matter, try to understand the difference.

See, a guy like Joshua Palacios at best is a fringe player. He can hit, he can have incredible games, he can even start for a while if need be, but at 28 years old, it simply isn’t going to last long. Doesn’t mean he can’t have a role for the next few years, just means he likely isn’t something to worry about. In fact, he’s someone you should actively hope is rendered irrelevant. Doesn’t have to happen this year, or Spring, but he must at some point be nudged aside for the overall improvement of the roster.

Connor Joe is a guy like that. Probably a nice bench piece, can fill in a lot of ways to really help this club and give professional at bats when he does, but he too at some point needs pushed aside.

This type of guy, man they’ll be around even when the team is truly fighting for the top of the division. The last time this team was relevant Josh Harrison was one of these guys, a lack of true prospect depth prevented him from being dispatched. In fact the team leaned on him to start. To his credit he did a great job, better than his pedigree forecasted he should, but regardless, a healthy team never extends such a player, instead replaces them with another in a constant surging group of prospects.

Every player who puts on the black and gold deserves our hope, but at this stage you need to understand the difference between well placed hope and wishful thinking. It’s going to be a theme that we’ll watch time and again as this goes on. Hell, one of them might be one of the starting pitchers they sign this year, one could be Jason Delay.

Enjoy all the players, appreciate what they bring when they bring it, but understand the difference between a potential core piece and a role player. More importantly, lets hope the GM does, cause at the end of the day, that matters far more than what we think.

Believe in who you’d like to, hope for whatever makes you happy, but you’ll spend a lot less time fretting over nothing if you first at least understand the likelihood of who should or shouldn’t matter in the long run.

5. Can’t Develop

It’s been true, and it’ll remain true until such a time as they prove to us it isn’t.

Unfortunately, it’s also become a mantra uttered to describe things it doesn’t apply to.

Can’t develop doesn’t mean a prospect is called up and then struggles to assure a foothold in the first few weeks of their opportunity. Especially if said prospect was rather a long shot to begin with.

For instance, know what they’re saying in Cincinnati? Yup, can’t develop. Even as they have several rookies and youngsters actively performing. Elly De La Cruz has struggled after his initial start. Hunter Green hasn’t become the unhittable monster they expected from his first pitch.

They have a history of developing talent. The Pirates have a history of developing lesser talent into serviceable MLB players. It remains to be seen if they can make something more than that out of the higher end talent they’ve drafted.

If they fail to make a player out of Davis, Skenes, Johnson, Gonzales, those types, yeah, you can rightly point to development. Now, if they miss on guys like Hoy Park like we saw last year, I’m sorry, “can’t develop” doesn’t apply. That was a hope and prayer and that’s it.

When you say they can’t develop you immediately have to ignore guys like Oviedo even as you blame them for Ortiz. LOL it’s such a silly discourse. To truly understand this subject, you really have to start by understanding a concept as deep as Can They Develop is best viewed through the prism of history and pretending they get equal blame for those prior to this regime coming in is a waste of time.

At the end of the day, if this thing is successful you’ll easily be convinced this team was in fact wonderful at development, even if half the players weren’t in fact “developed”. Truth be told, it’s a reality that development has to happen to succeed, but for most its little more than a phrase they utter that ensures they sound smart. Really sit back and think about what would make you feel “the Pirates are great at development”. 5 star players brought up and matured? 10? Whatever the number, if you want to claim success, you’ll find your number. If you want to claim failure, you’ll find that too.

The team will either win or lose and the success of the development system will play a huge role either way. It’s one element of an overall franchise, a big one, but one that only succeeds when a significant amount of other factors do as well.