Hump Day Pirates Q&A

9-20-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

It’s been a while, but man have I been busy. Just this weekend I was in Ohio for my wife’s cousin’s wedding. Totally planned to write a bit while there in the hotel, but my goodness we were booked almost the entire time.

A wedding in the middle of a forest with a Lord of the Rings theme, which if you know David is 100% what you’d expect and the funniest thing is while we were all inundated with middle earth stuff, there I am talking baseball with 10 old guys my wife’s grandmother pointed my way after we talked ball for an hour. You’d be shocked how many of today’s questions I was trying to field off the top of my head while listening to the musical score for the fellowship.

At one point I found myself talking a Reds fan out of despair about Elly De La Cruz! Thankfully none of you asked for the same.

Baseball is just a part of me, and seemingly everyone knows it, even people I’ve never met, even people wearing robes and dancing to Rump Shaker at the same time.

Congrats Heidi and David (Huge Bucco Fan)! You’re good people, and perfect for each other.

Question 1

I know you and Jim have talked about this on the pod but what exactly do you do with Nick Gonzales? Do you try to switch him to first base or possible trade bait to get a starting pitcher? – John @JGor492

Such a hard question John. He’s actively killing it in AAA, but he’s got his work cut out for him to win the second base job. Even if he were to win it, or Peguero were to get hurt, Bae were to just be permanently moved to the outfield, well then you have Termarr Johnson who barely slowed after being promoted this year. In other words, how long would the victory parade last anyway?

To be clear, while I’ve suggested it several times, I’ve never heard even a suggestion as to it’s plausibility from anyone who matters. It’s just me trying to use a gaping hole to find a place for a bat I think might matter, and even then, I’d want him to do it at AAA and get a qualified MLB 1B in 2024.

As to the trade bait portion, no matter how I dice up this roster, even the extended roster beyond the 40-man, I keep coming up with odd men out, or at least redundancies. That makes Nick and several like him 100% possible for a deal and yes, any one of them could wind up helping another team or falling on their face.

It’s part of why I get so frustrated about seeing 200+ at bats from say a Joshua Palacios while Canaan Smith-Njigba hits 20 bombs in AAA and can’t see the field when he makes the team out of Spring and earns a recall mid-season. Hey, they know more than I do, but best case for Palacios is not the same as best case for CSN.

Question 2

Everyone knows how you feel about Andy Haines as a hitting coach. But does bringing him back (assuming it happens) change your thoughts on potential 2024 success? And how can guys overcome it, if at all? Maybe more going the Hayes route? – Nick Cammuso @npc210

They young guys aren’t hitting. Easy to blame the hitting coach. Will they rebound and do ok, or is this whole rebuild on the cusp of crumbling? – Bobby Nacho

It absolutely shakes my confidence, sure. I look at coaching almost like doctoring, if that’s a word. First, do no harm. Anyone who watched the camera pick up a nice long deep look into Jack Suwinski’s eyes after another strikeout in a 1 for 43 slump can easily see, that sumbitch been harmed.

That said, I think there’s enough talent here to raise the level of offensive output, and to the Pirates credit, they have not told anyone they can’t seek outside, or inside help. As to the Hayes route, well, let’s see how that route continues into 2024 before we buy any flowers and best wishes cards for Andy.

I think he’s an ineffective hitting coach, but I’m increasingly convinced he’s coaching what they want, even if that aspect itself could be done better. Toward the end of the season they seem to have finally figured out they need to be more aggressive.

The best team in the league hitting with an 0-2 count is Atlanta (best in just about everything as you know) at .215, the Pirates sit at .126 good for 29th place. 0-1, again Atlanta at .358, Pittsburgh .308. Yet coaching never prioritized swinging at a non preferred strike. Heck, you’ve watched them, when a player gets 1-0 9 times out of 10 they’re taking that second pitch. At 1-0 the Pirates batted .332 at 2-0 .299. Swing, the friggin’ bat. At 3-0 they’ve recorded 2 hits and 3 RBI with a .500 batting average and 76 walks. Now, should your goal be that walk?

Sigh. Never tee me up to hate on Haines bro.

I’m not going to sit here and say that’s all coaching, the Braves are a brilliantly talented team, but the league as a whole has fairly consistent stats backing up that any coaching that considers it ok getting to 0-2 before opening up the menu is probably not smart.

Question 3

I know it’s kinda of early for this but who are some possible free agent pitching targets for this offseason that are realistic? I’m thinking a step above the recent Rich Hill, Tyler Anderson types. Is Gilioto cost prohibitive? – Jim Maruca

First, I probably wouldn’t limit my hunting grounds to the free agent market, but…

I like the chances that Eduardo Rodriguez opts out in Detroit. He’s a 30 year old lefty and will probably get interest in the 20 million dollar range. And before we say that’s crazy, the Pirates Payroll after arb will likely be in the 40’s. I think we’ll see the payroll reach 80-90 million next year and that’s even if they extend Keller. Still might not be something Nutting would do, but he certainly should consider it.

Alex Wood is another I really like and I think he could be had for 8-10 million. Luis Severino will probably rake in 10 or so and he’s been injury prone, not bad at pitching. Michael Lorenzen should get 12-14 per and I love his upside.

Believe it or not the Pirates are at least kinda in on Yoshinobu Yamamoto the 25 year old Japanese star, hard to say what that investment would be but we’ve seen them similarly go after Kang.

Now, I’d consider plenty others, but those are all realistic in my mind. Here’s my nutso trade idea I promised you, Alek Manoah. Incredible 2022, awful and dysfunctional, relationship hurting 2023, it got so bad he refused to report to his minor league assignment. That’s a potential ace if you can get him right and the Jays almost have to move him.

Giolito struggled mightily this year and is still projected to get 17+ million per. Yeah, I get taking a risk, but that one has no parachute.

Question 4

How much should the average person be concerned about the way this team develops young players with most of our youngsters really struggling in MLB? – James Littleton

We’re all average persons, I mean, you’ve seen me golf James. First thing I’d say is there are different degrees to struggling. On the mound especially.

I’ve mentioned before I’m much more concerned about the transition from AAA to MLB especially with this many prospects all at once. They require more attention than a veteran and when you have 15 or so at once, man, that’s a lot to ask.

Again, speaking as an average person, I only get really concerned if I don’t see anything. Like if I see no foothold, I wonder what they have to hold onto. There aren’t a ton of those for me. Maybe Cody Bolton, but most everyone else has shown at least flashes of what people liked, or have a skill that can’t be replaced easily.

Now, against the league and their rivals, I guess I’d say my perception at least is that the Bucs don’t do as well as others, but I was just talking to a friend in Seattle who claims Julio is the only non piece of crap prospect they’ve had in years. LOL.

Bottom line, worry all you like, I personally would be more concerned if they were returning proven out busts in 2024 as opposed to slow to grow prospects.

Endy has done well behind the dish, but has struggled at the plate, much like his promotion to AAA went and we al know how that evolved. Davis was probably rushed in hindsight. Gonzales I kinda don’t understand even right now what they’re doing. Peggy has impressed me with his power and glove. Bae is starting to figure out his identity after 2 solid years of them telling him to hit more dingers. Triolo has been as advertised, maybe better. Priester they refuse to challenge in AAA and he’s learning currently. Ortiz was lazy this offseason. Contreras had his mechanics tweaked and it broke him, hopefully not forever.

Mixed bag bro.

Question 5

It’s been a big climb in a short period of time but Solometo has struggled some on his most recent stop. Obviously fatigue may be a factor but has there really been anything indications in these outings that suggest alarms or just growing pains? – J.W. Sanders

Tired, and on the development list. Overall, a very very positive year or Solometo. I do think he’ll have some hurdles facing better hitters in 2024, but nothing negative I can point to this year at all really, kid was gassed in his last couple and it was visible.

Question 6

How is it we can beat every team in our division but the Cubs? Cubs have won 10 of 11 games they out scored us 88-28 – Shawn Wheeler

They’re better, and they’re a bad matchup for the Pirates. Their hitters swing the bat early and often. Our pitchers are coached to be strike throwers. Put those both together and you have very few 0-2 counts unless you have swing and miss stuff in the zone. Pirates do have some of those guys, but only 2 in the rotation as of right now.

I really won’t spend much time here because in 2 days we’re done with them and next year, they won’t be them anymore.

Question 7

Have we heard anything new on Max Kranick since being put in AAA as far as his comeback?

Part 2 Do we know anything about Burrows or Brubaker and their recovery at this point as well? – J.W. Sanders

8 starts for Max totaling 17 innings, that’s just not much to go on. As he’s actively recovering, it’s hard to critique anything aside from “Hey kid, arm feel good?”

Burrows and Brubaker both had full UCL (Tommy John) surgeries. That’s usually an 18 month recovery and that’s when the rehab begins in earnest on the mound if everything has gone right. I doubt sincerely either will play significantly in 2024. I certainly wouldn’t count on it.

Long story short, when a player has full TJ, you just aren’t gonna hear anything for a good 12 months and even then it’ll be more like hey, JT just started long toss, and that’s like 2 months of the process, then the next step, throwing off a mound, and not sharp sliders mind you, just 60MPH tosses.

A guy like Vince Velasquez had partial TJ surgery, he could conceivably make his way back during 2024, but its hard to imagine before like June minimally.

Kranick had his surgery June 3rd, 2022, so here we are roughly 15 months out and he’ll finally, likely be ready for Spring Training in 2024 barring any setbacks. Even then, they’ll have him strictly restricted to an innings count.

Question 8

What questions, if any, can still be answered in the final 11 games this year? – Shawn Conley

Not much Shawn. The team has kinda made their decisions on who they wanted to see and who they were ok not seeing.

Biggest open questions are upcoming roster choices like Andujar who they have to decide to tender or not. They simply don’t have many of those choices to make.

Try to win for these kids because these kids are largely coming back in 2024.

Question 9

Who would you trade this off-season whom can bring in real starting pitching? Who are you willing to trade and who is untouchable? – Ryan Antonucci

Untouchable? Reynolds, Hayes, Cruz, Suwinski (yes I mean it), Keller, Oviedo, Endy, Henry, Skenes. The list isn’t long, but I’m being super discriminating.

Now who can they move? Honestly just about anyone else they want. To get real impact starting pitching back though, it’ll have to be MLB ready or MLB top 100 quality. Teams looking to deal MLB starting pitching with control typically know they themselves are 2-3 years away so it almost always winds up being prospect driven.

So let’s be idiots. Say you want Dylan Cease from Chicago. He has 2 years of arbitration and the Sox would want two good prospects back. Skenes isn’t going anywhere, but you might have to part with Termarr. You can offer Gonzales, but they can see why you’d offer that instead. You could toss them someone like Mlodzinski or Holderman, a stud reliever with YEARS of control, or maybe even a Jones or Priester.

If you’re filling a need now, you have to not feel the need to clutch guys who are close. Make no mistake though, for a franchise who have trained their fans to stare at the minors and dream, a move like this will absolutely hurt.

Question 10

Do you think we will be a playoff contender team in a couple of years? – Nicole Chewning

Nicole, I honestly think they’ll be a playoff contender next year. I just wrote about this in Monday’s 5 Thoughts at 5, so I’ll point you there.

Question 11

How many innings does Skenes see next year? How many of those innings are at the major league level? Also, what does your projected 2025 Pirates starting rotation look like? – Phil Chaplin

I think 150 – 170 or so is a solid semi educated guess and that’s hard to say. If the team does what they should in the offseason they won’t be dying for SP help for a good chunk of the season and there’s no telling he’d be the first call up with Jones, Solometo, Ortiz, Contreras types all floating around too.

As to 2025, impossible. I simply won’t do it Phil, that’s Kody Duncan stuff, not by bag. For instance before this year would you have projected 2024 with no Contreras or Ortiz? Would you now? Would you have included Oviedo? I wouldn’t.

I’ll say this, I expect Keller to be in it and extended, and I expect Paul Skenes somewhere in there.