Bucco Blasts: Palacios Earning Keep, Is 2024 Contention Realistic?

9-22-23 – By Cody Flavell – @LetsTalkPit on Twitter

Don’t you hate it when life gets in the way? Well after a bit of time without Bucco Blasts, we’re bringing it right back to you as the season starts to wind down for the Pirates.

The all-too-familiar feeling of September rolling around and the Pirates playing for next year has set in. The Steelers have already played two games at Acrisure Stadium and have rendered the Pirates moot amongst the majority of Pittsburgh. If you haven’t been paying attention, the Buccos are 10-8 this month and looking to post a 15+ win difference over the 2022. Despite how the season unfolded, that is a solid improvement.

I don’t want to waste your time talking too much about their performance because if you’re reading this, you probably still care about the Pirates so lets start discussing some actual Pirates topics, shall we yinz?

Palacios Earning 2024 Role

I got to admit it. Joshua Palacios’ promotion earlier this season felt like another in a long line of major league rejects. The 28-year old was a minor-league Rule 5 pick in the offseason. After younger prospects such as Canaan Smith-Njigba and Travis Swaggerty came and went back to the minor leagues, Palacios grabbed a hold of a platoon spot in the outfield and ran with it.

Don’t get me wrong, Palacios isn’t an all-star. He likely never will be. But what he does have is a bubbly personality that is good for the locker room while being a serviceable fourth outfielder for the young ball club.

No one is chomping at the bit to see a guy with a .230/.270/.404 slash line play every day. That doesn’t mean there isn’t a spot for him next season if the Pirates don’t seek outside help for their outfield.

Bryan Reynolds and Jack Suwinski make up 2/3 of the everyday lineup out there. The right fielder position isn’t locked down by anyone specific and that is where Palacios comes in. He plays good defense with a bat and speed and that is all you can ask for out of him. At 28, his days were numbered to make a case as an MLB player. Maybe he won’t blossom into an everyday starter but he is a feel good story that could parlay it into a safe Opening Day role next year with a good finish and solid spring training next year.

2024? If Cherington Says So…

This past weekend, Ben Cherington stated that the organizational goal for next season is to win 84 games. Where he pulled that exact number out of is a mystery but it isn’t bad to have goals. How hard will it be exactly for the Buccos to reach that goal? That remains to be seen. But that would be a 24-win improvement from last season and at least a 10-game improvement on this season.

Impossible? No. Ambitious? Certainly.

Look, it is hard for me to believe that the Pirates can become 84-game winners next season when there is quite literally two actual starters on the team in Mitch Keller and Johan Oviedo. Injuries and underperformance have hindered that but guys like Luis Ortiz and Quinn Priester have become bulk guys instead of traditional starters. They’ve got to take large leaps to be part of next season’s rotation.

The Pirates will sign at least one or two pitchers this offseason. They’ll likely be more of the Rich Hill/Vince Velasquez-type as opposed to the Lucas Giolito-tier. There’s nothing wrong with that. Every team needs them. However, that would mean those types of guys would likely fill in the middle of the rotation instead of the backend like they should. That would be concerning. It should be noted too that they’ll be returning J.T. Brubaker as well.

Oneil Cruz is due back and you’d figure he would be a massive boost. But after almost a full year off of baseball, how can we be so sure he’ll come back and be an electric, middle-of-the-order bat? A big portion of next season will hinge on his health and performance.

Let’s assume the Pirates go 5-5 over their final 10 games. That would put them at 76-86 on the year. That is a big improvement over last year. Best case scenario they finish 7-3 and win 78 games. Either way, that would be a big win overall despite a 20-8 start.

The progress with this roster was certainly there and maybe a few more wins over the Cubs this season would’ve had things a bit more interesting heading into September. Regardless, is the roster ready for contention in 2024? Man, I want to believe it but there is some money that has to be spent and moves that have to be made for me to concede that they could be a contending team next season.

Trimming The Fat Will Be Important

You can’t field a 26-man roster full of stars. That just doesn’t happen even with the best teams in the league. But the depth players should be guys who you feel at least comfortable with if they come up in a big spot late in the game. That doesn’t apply to some guys on the Pirates’ roster.

Alika Williams has as smooth a glove as the Pirates have on the team. His OPS is .543 on the season. Ji-Hwan Bae is a young fast player but if he isn’t bunting, there isn’t a high confidence that he can get on base. Alfonso Rivas is a 28-year old with career .661 OPS as a first baseman. These are the types of guys the Pirates should look to replace in the offseason.

Bae could be an exception because he really is a speed demon and plays a solid centerfield but also has rookie moments in the field. The other two? Those are guys that don’t need to be on the Pirates’ roster.

If the Pirates want to be serious, they absolutely need to address their first base position. I like Jared Triolo and suggested in the last edition of Bucco Blasts that he could play some at the position. He isn’t a long-term starter there. He’d be a perfect plug-and-play matchup guy behind a true, everyday first baseman.

Henry Davis is going to have to take a step next year akin to the one the Steelers need out of Kenny Pickett. Cruz has to come back healthy. There is a lot that needs to happen next year but trimming the fat should be the biggest focus heading into 2024.

Thank you all for reading along and we’ll be meeting again in this space soon.