It’s Not What You are, It’s What You Become… and When

10-17-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

Let’s talk progression shall we?

It’s one of my favorite subjects because as you watch baseball, inevitably that guy who once had potential, then stunk, then kinda looked like he might be getting it, often becomes the player you’re screaming to have extended that only has two years of team control left.

For every Corbin Carroll there are 20 of what I just described, one of them is named Mitch Keller. Hell, some of you still don’t trust him because you’re punishing him for taking so long to mature, or you’ve been hurt in the past by trusting someone was for real.

The Pirates, partially by their own choice, and paired with the disadvantages that MLB’s system creates have to at least to a degree, build their team. You can tell yourself whatever lie you want about revenue sharing, make up whatever numbers you desire, maybe you’ll even be right about some of them, but the only real fact in the financial situation in baseball is that some teams can spend twice as much as others.

That doesn’t excuse ownerships, and yes, I mean that in a plural usage, but it does exist and much of the struggle of building like this, rebuilding, tearing down, tanking, all of it comes straight from this reality.

So, now that my little rant is out of the way and we can move forward. A building team, flush with young talent must incrementally improve.

From the time you call up a prospect, the clock starts ticking. 6 or 7 years is what you get until you extend a player. Extending players, and even paying good players in year 6 and 7 gets costly.

When a guy like Mitch comes up and struggles for a year, hey, cool you get 4 or 5 years of a really good player who helps your team. When it takes 2 or 3 years to reach “good” well, you’re already pushed headfirst into decision time.

That’s why it’s so important to negotiate with Mitch on an extension this offseason, because he’s only got 2 left, and if the team doesn’t lock him up, they’ll wind up having worked hard for 4 full seasons and maybe get him to pitch in a Wild Card Series as a reward. Frankly, that’s not enough.

In fact, time travel with me. What if Mitch was just coming up in 2024? Could the Pirates afford to be as patient? Could they really give him 4 seasons to become this dude we can’t let slip through our fingers?

The answer to that question is exactly why a team like this instead chooses to sell off and tear down. You can’t try to win and on board 10-15 rookies at the same time, well, you can, but you can’t expect great results.

Even the youth laden Orioles have a crop of guys who’ve been around for 5-6 years.

Next year for the Pirates, Bryan Reynolds, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Mitch Keller, David Bednar, they’ll all be counted upon pieces. Pieces surrounded by countless youngsters who they’ve taken the advantage of low expectations to on board over the past couple seasons.

Again, the hope is that your players progress quickly. There is never a good time for that 3-4 year maturing cycle, but the reason you have a season like 2023 in which you call up a roster full of rookies is to start the progression together as a unit.

The hope of course is you find some that get there quickly, add to it and catch a break with an early run. The expectation is, you grow them, add others along the way and by the 3rd or 4th year of their MLB experience you’re ready to rock.

That’s part of why this is so hard. A rather large part actually.

Timing is everything. If you call guys up in a big group, well, you better at least turn half of them into serviceable. If you call up top picks, some of them need to become stars. If you extend players, you best choose the right ones.

I can tell you right now, in 2030 this entire batch will be through team control if not acted upon. Sounds like forever away, I know, but come 2028 we’ll be actively wondering which ones will be traded, which ones will be extended and some of them, well, we probably will have forgotten their names until some Twitter handle brings them up in a trivia question.

The reason I’ve been able to stay reserved as we’ve watched all this awful baseball is because it was all building up to where we are now. And the reason I won’t lose my mind when someone I really like is moved, is because honestly, I know right now sitting here it’ll happen. Because it simply must.

For some of you this is part of a never ending cycle you just can’t deal with. I get it, I really do, but I implore you to try to just enjoy what you are very much so going to get, even if this management team shows to be incompetent, a good run of winning baseball.

To me, that much is clear, we’re on the verge of winning more than we lose. We’re on the cusp of watching young players become better, and ultimately some of them will become indispensable to the cause.

You don’t have to enjoy the entire journey, those of you who’ve read my stuff from the beginning know, I know I’m weird, but at least allow yourself to enjoy what you suffered for.