Five Pirates Thoughts at Five – The Series Approaches

10-23-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

The playoffs are nearing conclusion and we’ll soon know the World Series combatants. Will it be the Phillies and Astros in a rematch, or will the Upstart Diamondbacks chin up to the defending NL Champs? Maybe those Rangers want their share of the Lone Star State’s baseball pride. One thing’s for sure, all of this has my head spinning thinking about the off season, and what a big one it is for this franchise.

1. Did Endy’s Offensive Numbers Leave a Crack for Henry?

It’s clear that Endy Rodriguez was ahead of Henry Davis defensively in 2023. Take the pile of reasons including the perception that the Pirates made it so with poor choices and toss them out the window.

None of the reasons matter, just the result, Endy is a developed catcher who still has room to grow, Henry has room to grow, but has also barely started developing.

We know the Pirates have at least under Ben Cherington, prioritized the defensive capability of their backstops.

All of this leads you to the “inevitable” conclusion that Endy is the starting catcher when we get to February and this Henry catching stuff is a waste of time.

That said, are we just assuming Endy is eventually going to hit like he did in the minors? I say this because he certainly didn’t hit in the Bigs. I mean, better than Austin Hedges, but if Henry is given a real shot back there and he’s even passible, can he take the spot?

I’ll say this, the Pirates are at least open to it. One thing I’m hearing repeatedly is the overriding thought that roles won in 2023 shouldn’t be assumed filled for 2024.

2. JT Brubaker Ahead of Schedule?

Talking with Michael McKenry last week he told me JT was already throwing off flat ground a month ago, which would put him ahead of the schedule we traditionally see in these types of recoveries.

Brubaker is one of the tougher decisions the Pirates will face on the non-tender deadline. He’s due for arbitration and should get somewhere from 2-2.5 million. If his recovery progresses like this it’s not insane to think he could make it back sometime in July or Early August.

Might be a nice punch in the arm right around when a team like this would hopefully be looking to bolster their staff. Something as small as being slightly ahead of schedule could swing this decision into keep territory.

You may think Brubaker isn’t good enough to be one of their 5 starters, and you may very well end up being right, but for a team that never spends what you want, 2 million for what could be a nice, experienced option might just be important.

3. Don’t Be Shocked if the Pirates Bring in More Players Than You Expect

We all keep the holes on this roster at top of mind when we discuss this offseason. Over and over again they are repeated. 2 starters and a first baseman we say, to anyone who’ll listen. We say them at the beginning of every conversation just to make sure who we’re talking to know we’re qualified to speculate.

That doesn’t make them any less true, but it’s also started in my mind to prevent any of us from going any farther. We name those things, nod at each other and almost non-verbally acknowledge that this is enough to ask for and we just back off. Yelling Oh, and Cutch too! almost in the distance as we’ve ended the conversation a while ago.

I remember feeling this same way last offseason. I thought they’d get a starter, a bullpen arm, a first baseman, someone to catch, but I didn’t expect much more. But they did get more. You don’t have to think they were all good moves, but they weren’t bare minimum.

I think the Bucs might just go out and bring in more competition even in places we aren’t seeing an opening. For instance, they have plenty of options who can play the outfield, but only two who you’d consider everyday players. Bryan Reynolds and Jack Suwinski are that bar, below that you have Bae, Palacios, Joe, Davis and whomever else you want to name. Well, maybe they fill this hole with someone from outside.

Meaning, maybe 2024 is less about ensuring kids get playing time and instead making sure they have MLB quality depth everywhere. The 40-man would be 37 players you could count on to give you MLB results. It could mean instead of letting one of the middle infielders win 2B in Spring, they bring in someone for them to beat beside each other.

Look, we’ve been writing and talking about getting these prospects on boarded for 4 years. It’s been our entire focus, every move had to be made with that in mind. To a degree, it still comes into play of course, but this is a method many teams will employ. You must have depth and quality depth to win, so you either stock up on Quad A players from other teams or you build up the top end forcing some of your own prospects back a bit.

I don’t know if that’s the direction they’ll go, maybe not, but I keep going back to the GM saying they want to reach the playoffs. I’m not sure the “expected” is enough to get that done. Maybe it is, maybe they patch the obvious holes and the kids evolve and next thing you know, boom playoffs. Or, maybe, you fill some holes a bit less front facing, force the depth down and let the cream rise to the top.

Food for thought.

4. Rule 5 Protections

The Pirates could protect or leave exposed any number of players this year. Before I start worrying about whom the Pirates may have to send on their way in exchange, or non-tender, even before I wonder how much room to leave for free agents, it always makes more sense to first understand how many players you could see getting claimed.

Sometimes you roll the dice like last year with Blake Sabol, and you lose. He had a fine first year for the Giants, and time will tell how badly this will hurt. A fresh lesson always hurts worse than the collective of history though, and overall, as much time as we spend on this year after year, it so hardly matters, and yet, that’s largely because teams don’t often mess this up.

Here’s who I see as the best bets to be protected.

Braxton Ashcraft, Tsung-Che Cheng, and Jase Bowen. Again, there are a ton of guys depending on what you think you see the Pirates being concerned with, but if I’m using Blake Sabol as a barometer, it’s hard for me to see them sweating Malcom Nunez, or Gorski.

It’s early yet, maybe after thinking on this a bit more I’ll talk myself into something else. In fact even of the 3 I mentioned, Cheng is the only one I’d call a lock and Tsung-Che himself didn’t do many favors after his promotion to Altoona. It’s hard to watch him play and come away from it feeling like there isn’t something special there. Ashcraft was much the same, and the only reason to leave him unprotected is how little he’s actually pitched.

If you’ve learned anything from their choices on this front these past few years, it should be unless they see the player capable of MLB innings they tend to just leave it be. Liover Peguero is the last one I remember them reaching for a bit, but they had plenty of room and they knew the decision was coming when they acquired him. That’s just not the case right now with anyone else in my mind. If Jared Jones was eligible, he’d be a for sure protection, but they should feel no pressure to get that done right now.

5. Fan Bases are Built on Season Ticket Holders…

It’s true, a thriving franchise has a strong base of season ticket holders. They’ll for the most part loyally ride along with you through the ups and downs. Every year there are defectors, some just can’t handle another rebuilding cycle. Some couldn’t deal with that one guy getting dealt, heck, some are just mad beer costs too much. Most years, in most places those are replaced by others for myriad reasons.

The best way to add to that is to win of course, but not just that, to really build this STH base, they’re going to have to prove to fans they won’t need to reach the same depths next time the window closes on a block of veterans. Fans will take a couple years gearing back up, but the bottoming out is destructive.

Now, don’t get me wrong, they aren’t losing some idiot like me regardless, but if you want families back, or friend groups, or couples who add to the re-up coffers year after year, you have to show that ten year valleys and three year heights aren’t going to be the norm.

That’s the GM Cycle. Come in and you get to attack the problem however you like, or more accurately, you’re able to execute whatever you sold the ownership on. The goal for this one was to burn it down, build it back on fertile ground and hopefully sustain a winning culture.

You know, stuff every GM promises when they come in the door. Some are awfully convincing too. These are things we just aren’t going to know until it’s played out through the decade, and yes, he’ll almost assuredly get that long. That’s part of what I take from allowing some of the longer term contracts, it’s not like Nutting to assume risk that’ll outlive the executive who inked it.

This TV deal is important too. If it’s absorbed by MLB I think we’ll get little more than games on TV. If it’s through NESN the Penguins new carrier I think we can expect much more local programming that we’ve come to expect and probably more. There is fast coming a day when Regional Sports Networks will fully meet their maker, but for now, if the Pirates have a choice and financially it’s similar, I’m pulling for joining the Penguins.

A good performing team with a good TV situation will help grow this base too. This offseason for this organization is huge, in a ton of ways up to and including the club finally investing in the area surrounding the ball park.

Good.

Cause the players shouldn’t be the only subjects of “getting better”.