Five Pirates Thoughts at Five – Thanksgiving Week!

11-20-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

Can you believe we’re already here? We’re already way into the offseason, the leaves have mostly all fallen, the turkey’s are mostly already in the fridge thawing out and grandmas around the country are receiving phone calls cause they’re the only ones who know that one ingredient in the dish everyone has to have to make it a holiday.

Baseball is off to a slow start in the offseason, but that won’t stop us, let’s go!

1. Is the Pilot Lit?

The hot stove as it’s come to be known, has thus far been more of an unlit gas stove. Arron Nola re-signed with Philly taking the first big name off the free agent board, but aside from that, just some light rumors of possible moves. Landing spots being predicted for some of the bigger names only 4 or 5 teams realistically could afford has become the replacement for rumors and listening in. Most of the rumors come from agents anyway, so gigantic grain of salt to begin with.

Take Ohtani for instance, there are legitimate questions as to when or if he’ll be a pitcher, but even just as a hitter he’s still going to get a big contract. I can tell you right now that means he could go to NYM, NYY, BOS, PHI, CHC, LAD, LAA, SFG, TEX, and unless he’s taking some sort of deal that pays him 20 years after he retires to play somewhere like Seattle, those are the teams regardless of need who could pay the price.

Until dominoes start to fall, that’s where some very prominent trade targets will likely head too. Whoever trades for Juan Soto for instance has to have an extension in their immediate plans, and that is a guy who will 100% get 400 million on the cheap side. Point being, if the the Pirates wanted Soto to be a Bucco in 2024, they could have him. They have the prospect capital to get it done. But it would be his first, and only season in this uniform. You know it, I know it, and so do all the rumor generators.

If you really want to know why the stove is chilly though, I think it’s because baseball currently has 2/3 of their teams in some form or fashion actively out of a TV deal or in danger of being out of one. None of them know exactly what this means for their club, their budgets or the game itself. MLB’s promise to cover 80% of previous deals wasn’t an offer that they planned to extend in perpetuity, there’s no guarantee a team like Pittsburgh gets that now if they have to go in that direction for instance.

Eventually these names will start dropping. Every time the market is slow, some idiot with a keyboard like me starts talking gloom and doom. That’s not what I’m trying to do here. I’m just throwing out a couple reasons why I don’t think rumors are flying around like hot cakes right now.

Some of this stuff needs to clear up and until then, I’m afraid it’s mostly going to be the big boys shuffling trading cards.

2. What IF? They Don’t Add

They said they want to add, this isn’t to suggest they won’t now, or any such claim, it’s simply to set a baseline and you do this in your head even if it’s not on purpose.

Every addition this team brings in will bump one of these starting point options and while it’s much easier to print up signs that say “3SP, 1B, CF!” and march around PNC, I think looking at the roster while they add is much more instructive.

Let’s go with just the starting rotation for today to illustrate the point.

If Spring training started tomorrow the Pirates starting rotation and depth sets up like this. It’s also important to note, as of right this second, we don’t yet know anything more about Johan Oviedo than he’s had elbow issues and they’ve discussed the possibility of surgery. We don’t know the path forward yet.

Starting 5: Mitch Keller

In the Hunt: Quinn Priester, Luis Ortiz, Roansy Contreras, Bailey Falter, Andre Jackson, Jackson Wolf

ETA 2024 so Maybe: Jared Jones, Paul Skenes, Braxton Ashcraft (because he’s on the 40), Sean Sullivan

Expected Returns from IL (Summer ’24): Michael Burrows, JT Brubaker

It’d Be a Stretch to Expect: Anthony Solometo

So if they do nothing, you probably are going to be realistically looking at those first two categories for your starting 5. I don’t need to choose them right now, I just need to know what I’m choosing from.

Every signing you bump things down. Let’s say they get Eduardo Rodriguez the big lefty starter. Well, that all but eliminates Bailey Falter and Jackson Wolf from the “in the hunt” category for me. I mean, I leave them in a new category if they have appropriate team control called “Depth”. Every move changes this structure. We probably drop one of our ETA 2024 candidates from likelihood too with this move, which frankly is a good thing.

Looking at it this way as opposed to just filling some numbers of players always helps me paint the picture of what this roster could look like, how it could work and whether I feel they have enough backing it to get the job done.

You come to the number they need by doing something like this in the first place, I’m just suggesting hold onto it, and move the pieces down as you add, you’ll see roster construction in a whole new light. It forces you to follow the logic train all the way through your “system” of players you think could have some claim to your 2024 roster.

Bottom line, it’s not pretty right now, and staring at the projected starting 5 alone, it’s easy to see them signing 4 guys, but think about the sincere need to eventually develop their own. Spend whatever this year by all means, but folks, this whole thing doesn’t work if they don’t come out of this batch with at least 3 or 4 internally developed starters. Cheap is one thing, but this market can’t prop up starting pitching via trade and free agency as primary drivers to reach the top of the mountain.

Pitching is late, do what you have to this year, but they must force opportunity for some of these kids to get shots, there is no “winning” in the long run without it. I say that more to prepare you for seeing a visible hole left, if not two for kids to fill. And yes, I think that might hurt the 2024 record, but it might make the 2025 and 2026 campaigns come together too. Ben Cherington’s own words are the only reason to claim this wouldn’t be the obvious play in 2024 if I’m honest.

May Mitch Keller have a happy and HEALTHY holiday season and off season. Like, bubble wrap that arm up bro. Put down that axe! Someone else can get the firewood hoss. Mitch what are you doing deep frying the turkey? Let your cousin handle it, go have a lite beer and sit next to the fireplace.

3. A 3 Dollar Scratch Off

I have to give my buddy James Littleton credit for the title on this one.

There’s a rumor percolating that the Blue Jays might be willing to move on from former All Star and Cy Young contending starter Alek Manoah.

This is super interesting. Let me start by saying this, making a deal for Manoah couldn’t be your best shot at a starter, but I am interested in this, very much so. Reminds me so much of Francisco Liriano who was undeniably great, then really not even playable, then suddenly, after a stutter start from a self inflicted wound, a Pirate where he’d of course go on to thrive again.

I described this on Social Media as a lottery ticket, just not the kind you’re used to. Meaning this isn’t some kid you get in the DSL or Single A and 5 years later find out he left in MiLB free agency. This guy is boom or bust from the beginning. And his recent history could make him really cheap from a prospect capital standpoint.

Hence, the 3 dollar scratch off.

This is a minimal risk as he doesn’t even reach arb until next year and there’s a solid chance because he was sent down for so long last year he could backdoor qualify for Super 2.

Best case, this kid has ace stuff, and he’s already done it once at the MLB level, worst case you demote him or trade him, he costs the entry level salary this year. There is a belief he had a slight shoulder injury in 2023 and some have pointed to his shape being less than ideal coming into Spring coupled with the pitch clock being difficult for him to matriculate as he had been one of the slower pitchers to deliver in 2022. I’ve confirmed this by searching since but Bob Strazza pointed this out to me on X earlier.

I can’t sit here and say this is a deal they can’t miss. I won’t tell you the deal itself would work out. I can say though, in baseball, you can afford to be cheap, you can afford to be dumb and you can afford to be risk adverse, but you can’t be all 3 and expect to win.

If you can’t spend with the big boys, you better take some risks, and if educated ones like this come along, be first in line to sniff around anyhow.

4. Why Non-Tender Bido & Stratton

Osvaldo Bido and Hunter Stratton were both non-tendered by the club.

The reporting on this subject would have you believe the club wants to re-sign both to minor league deals, essentially, removing them from the 40-man without the waiver process. They’re free agents and for a team that is already super short on starting pitching, well, it was at least curious right?

Osvaldo was better than I think most of us expected and it’s also fair to say he looked at least bullpen capable. I really think for both these players it comes down to a pretty simple reality, they need roster spots cleared and they don’t want forced into using either of them simply because they’re on the 40-man.

That’s probably not the nicest way to put it, but they’ve done this in previous seasons with well, one instance is Chase DeJong. He was DFA’d at the end of Spring, signed back with the club and a week into the season was called up for a couple months.

I would imagine both will re-sign and be given invites to Spring Training. Try as they might the roster still has some scrapple and while I don’t think either of these players are useless, I think it’s pretty clear where their ceilings are.

Makes the risk of losing them a bit less worrisome when you’re pretty sure you can reach the ceiling without a step stool.

5. The Downside

I recently began my fifth year writing about the Pirates. After starting at Sports Illustrated and transferring to this independent venture with Craig Toth, we just put our heads down and wrote/talked our way through this entire rebuild.

I started before Ben Cherington was hired, in fact, I started right before Neil Huntington was fired. My second piece was about how the team needed to make changes, and two days later, Bob Nutting pulled the trigger and honestly, shocked me a little that he did so.

I had every reason to be shocked. He spent money to fire Neil and Frank, but more to the point, I didn’t know anyone, didn’t talk to anyone, and more to the point, if that situation played out today, I can honestly tell you I’ll know a couple hours after Jason Mackey, which if you do this sort of thing, you understand means NOBODY gets stuff before Mackey.

Now, I’m still not a “journalist”, I’m a fan with a blog and a podcast. Exactly what I want to be honestly, but you can’t do this sort of thing for this long and avoid networking your way into knowing some people, or at least knowing who to ask when you don’t know something you want to know.

I’ve come to know players, I’ve come to know front office members, hell I’ve even come to know scouts and coaches and some have gone, new ones have come, and from the “intel” perspective, the net just gets wider every year. In fact, when you do it long enough, you don’t even have to go looking for information anymore, it finds you.

I can’t speak for everyone who does this, but this has been my experience and yes, as it’s going on, it’s really cool.

Nothing is worse than hearing about what they may or may not spend. I miss the fun of guessing at a blank sheet of paper. I miss the blissful ignorance of imagining the owner was entirely happy with the jump the team took last year and hungry for more improvement. Now that’s disrupted by hearing he’s not pleased entirely they exceeded the budgeted payroll figure last year. I mean…

Hearing isn’t always believing. If it was, I’d be reporting it as opposed to just lamenting the bits and fragments of information. What I can say is “some” sure seem to want to make sure a guy like me knows that spending money is still going to be an issue. And then again, I’ve watched the Pirates operate long enough to know I didn’t need intel for this assumption.

I’ll put all this aside for the most part as we keep following what happens, maybe keep it in the back of my head, maybe direct the track I take writing about a subject, it’s there but I try not to make it a fact I have to write around because it simply might not be one.

I can honestly say last season payroll was almost 20 million more than I was told to expect, so I sure am glad I didn’t go forward with what I heard last offseason. Maybe it was true when I was told it and things changed internally since, a source being wrong doesn’t always mean you’ve been lied to. And so long as you haven’t run to the masses shouting about what you know, no harm no foul, in fact, that person is just as happy you didn’t run with it. The moral of the story here is, if you do this sort of thing long enough, you’re gonna start hearing things. If you’re responsible with that, you’ll probably hear more.

I know this is a little “inside baseball” but it’s important to me. We hear things everyday, and just about as often, we choose not to use it, at least not traditionally and we do that because quite honestly, we’ve decided NEWS isn’t our role, opinion on the news is, and that is where we apply whatever we “know”. It’s becoming harder and harder to stay in that lane the longer we do this the more blurred the lines between blogger and journalist become, but to me there’s just no upside for me or this site by trying to break news or deliver raw rumors.

To be as blunt as I possibly can, I as a fan would read breaking news from a guy like me, but I wouldn’t start sharing/reacting to it until I saw it from one of the real journos and I have zero cares about being able to tweet “first”. My issue with it is, many people who do read things like that WOULD share/react to it and that is a responsibility I’m not willing to accept for a side gig. I watch these sites that try to break news without credentials and it just seems like a constant battle to be seen or credited, and man I just have no desire to play the game. There are plenty of options out there who have no such issue, and they’re welcome to it.

Basically, when something happens, we’ll have opinions, and they might be colored by knowing something, or the news itself could confirm something we’ve been told and that automatically qualifies the other bits of conversation we had and adds to our opinion piece about the event. This isn’t just a Pirates topic, but you should be careful of where you get what you consider “News” and that starts by understanding there’s a difference between journalism and blogging. Unfortunately, a distinction too many journalists have also forgotten.