Trading Prospects is Hard but Has to Happen

11-21-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

It’s always something right? The Pirates trade a bunch of players we like for kids and after a while we get over it, start even getting excited about some of those same kids and poof, you’re telling me we’re now going to trade THEM?

Well, yeah.

It’s not like this everywhere, you’re absolutely right if you were already yelling it. You see this too is a difference in how a team spends money. Stick with me here for a minute, I’ll make it make sense.

As teams like the Yankees and Dodgers draft, sign, acquire prospects, they also fill their rosters primarily with MLB players. Teams like this reserve rookies starters on opening day for like MLB top 10 type players. Guys that they just can’t deny are not going to be bested by even a decent veteran free agent. Oh, other guys they develop make it to the league, and because they can bank so many top prospects with no urgency to make sure they debut, many become currency before they become MLB players.

People point to the excellence of a development system like in LA and they’re right to do so, it’s brilliant, especially at identifying talent on the international market. They often leave out the part that never forces them to play an underdeveloped prospect in a starting role. Essentially, failures are never exposed, which helps them retain more perceived value which makes them even more valuable currency.

It’s an advantage all big spenders don’t really capitalize on. The Dodgers usually do, and they never trade their top guy, ever. They don’t have to do anything they don’t want to.

We, meaning the Pittsburgh Pirates, well, we do have to do things we don’t like. And the next distasteful thing is going to be saying goodbye to a prospect, or more, who’ve become more than just guys in red uniforms you see highlights of, some of these could be guys you’ve seen in black and gold.

That’s where we are now.

The team has completed the rebuild cycle. Functionally speaking anyway. They have no more veterans to move for prospects, at least not veterans who they consider part of the painting they believe is a winning team. They might sign some who become that, but right now, they don’t.

That means the team only improves from here in a couple ways. They can improve who’s here already of course, with this many kids, that should be doable. They can move prospects or even MLB talent for help where its needed more. They can sign free agents.

This again, is lots easier if I can just go charging into the owners office with a list and a price tag just knowing he sees my vision and is willing to just sign the check. We know that’s just not going to be true here. It just can’t all come from that. And as much as I’d love to just toss that all on Bob Nutting, I think there is probably more value out there in the trade market than free agency.

So that leads me to some uncomfortable realities as to whom might have to be available to make a go of this thing.

See the Pirates would do well to keep depth near the league, so they certainly don’t need to focus on only moving AA and older prospects, but where there’s value and a decent sized projection for ETA you have to think. Maybe this guy doesn’t help me by pitching here, maybe he helps me by bringing pitching here.

You’re going to lose talent in these exchanges, you just are. But if you do it right, you also brought back talent that helps a hell of a lot sooner, and if winning now is important, well than the help now is more important right?

Some times it’s driven by having a position that just didn’t flesh out. First base never came together, they’ve only really developed one steady corner outfielder, MLB starting pitching, you know where they’re short. Well, you may have to play timeline games. You may have to take a guy like Bubba Chandler who truly has ace type stuff but is years away yet, and move him as part of a deal to bring back a Dylan Cease. 2 years of right now if needed for trying to win can be more valuable than yes, even losing what could be a superstar in 3 years.

First, the obvious, one player can help now, one can’t. Second, a lot can happen in 3 years. Not to wish ill on the kid but how many prospects have we seen go down and lose a year on the way here? How many get to AA and start getting their brains beaten in?

The same reason you can’t sit back and write Bubba’s name in pen in the rotation in 2027 is exactly why you as a fan, but especially as an executive must take this type of tradeoff.

You may see a starting pitching rich team like Miami, with even more returning from the IL with big time pedigree, well they want a catcher, and if they’re willing to part ways with a young controllable starting pitcher, one of the number they have with MLB experience and success already under their belts, and they want Henry…well, picture Sam from Rudolph the Red Nose Reindeer using his umbrella to hide from the Abominable Snow Monster, but that’s a deal you may have to consider.

You have to give to get.

I’m not advising these deals folks. No rumors here. Just illustrating how easily you go from the future to a stack of twenties to a team exec who doesn’t have the payroll to do it any other way.

Be prepared, because if we get through this off season without moving some prospects you recognize, well, it would shock me.

They have to do this, but they can’t afford to deplete it too much either. For this thing to have more than a year or two in it, they’re going to have to have internally developed pitching.

You’d love to count Paul Skenes as a given and for reasons of your sanity I’ll just say no, he isn’t going anywhere, no matter who gets dangled. Beyond that, they need a win or two, and ideally they emerge this year.

That doesn’t have to be a raw prospect like Jared Jones or Solometo, it could just as easily be Ortiz and Priester, but they need it. They simply don’t have enough prospects to account for it not happening, and worse, there won’t be much to move to replenish for a few years.

This is a crucial offseason. They can make a mistake right here that causes the house of cards small market teams are always trying to build, or, they can make the move that brings in this generation’s veteran pitcher who helps lead the staff.

This may not be the top of the arc as it comes to this build, but it might just be the most important offseason so far. Might just help determine how high they ever reach too.