This Offseason, Things Just Don’t Add Up

11-24-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

The more I think about things this offseason, the more things don’t add up.

I look at the roster and I see a team that probably has to spend a bit more than they’re comfortable spending to add what they likely need to add in order to reach the playoffs in 2024.

That said, we have multiple instances of the GM publicly saying that’s their goal. We even have prominent journalists reporting that the Pirates are “in on everybody” and “shopping in a different aisle”, or “Looking to add better pitching this year”.

As a fan, I of course want all those things to happen. I want them to be doing as much as possible to make sure they don’t waste a year in which they could have competed if only they’d done something.

On the other hand, I’m hearing from multiple sources, the team is very unlikely to purposefully crack 90 million this year. Now, that leaves them 35-40 million to spend in free agency or additions but folks, it starts spending quickly.

Even something we’ve all simply taken for granted, Andrew McCutchen will return, but how likely do you think it is they bring him back for less than the 5 million they paid last year? I mean, would you even want them to try to spend less on him? I’m saying would you tolerate it hitting the news they were trying to get Cutch to take 4 instead?

That’s one player.

Now if it’s true they are shopping for different quality pitching, well, Rich Hill was 8 million dollars. So logically, you’d have to imagine that has to be more like 12-14 right? Even if you think I’m exaggerating, take a look at what the Cardinals just paid two guys Lance Lynn (10M with an option and 1M buyout) and Kyle Gibson (12M with an option). Neither of these pitchers would excite anyone in Pittsburgh, in fact, they probably don’t excite anyone in St. Louis, but they are what they need.

See, St. Louis needed to just about entirely repopulate their rotation and quickly. They too have some promising youngsters who could matter, but this is the price of doing business.

In other words, if that’s the going rate for pitchers of that level, you know, the aisle the Pirates usually shop in, the fact is, they’ll spend more than they did on Rich Hill, but they’ll likely wind up with a Rich Hill type player. I mean Lance Lynn’s numbers last year, all I can say is I know right now if the Pirates had signed him, I’d be happy knowing if competently fills one slot, but I’m just as certain I’d have to do some work convincing some of you it wasn’t complete crap.

So I’m stuck here. It just doesn’t add up. It certainly doesn’t add up that they can do the rotation adequately and still find the quickly becoming Sasquatch the a Pirates first baseman is becoming. For sure has you not considering that outfielder you thought would be nice.

Things don’t square, that’s all I’m saying.

Entirely possible Ben Cherington has said some things to reporters that simply aren’t true. Entirely possible I’ve been told about a concern that really shouldn’t be one as it comes to payroll.

Thing is, I’ve seen one of these shows before, and it certainly wasn’t the one where they were big players on the free agent market.

This all leads me to believe one thing, the only way to possibly serve all these masters, the only way this all squares, they have to be considering trades as a major vehicle to bring in what they need.

That’s not to say they are going to go through this offseason refusing to sign any free agents, it just means if you look at the value out there, it just might be in trades.

Add into all this my sincere belief that the team is not only actively trying to extend Mitch Keller, but also Oneil Cruz. Both of those will be important should they get them done, but both of those are also going to take away more of that pool of cash I talked about in theory.

It might be fair to expect this team to spend 130 million. It might be what they can afford. Until they do it though, I for one am going to stick with what I’ve seen, heard, experienced, and all of that leads me to one expectation. They need more this year to pull this off than I personally believe they will spend.

I don’t need to argue with anyone about it. I’m not saying they can or can’t do anything, I’m just saying I don’t believe they will, and I think history is on my side.

Bottom line, expect trades, zero chance this comes together in 2024 without it.