Five Pirates Thoughts at Five – Live From Boston

11-27-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

Long one tonight, so I won’t spend much time up here. The Cardinals are fleshing out their comeback story they want to write and the natives are getting restless back home. We don’t just want Cherington to go get stuff done, we want him to do it now! 3/4 of the league have done nothing or next to it, but this fan base, well, they’ve seen this act before. One by one, day by day, targets we wanted, targets local “experts” said were possible, fall off the board.

It makes you nervous they’ll just get what’s left again. I get it, and all I can say is it’s probably coming. Sorry, wish I could do better.

1. It’s Not Like they have “No” Starting Pitchers

Listen, I’m partially writing this one because someone commented on my show that I said they had Keller and nothing else and I was just like all the other talking heads…. something, something…you get it. He was right though, and it deserved clarification, because while the Pirates are indeed in a very bad spot to start 2023, overall they have a ton of quite talented pitchers right on the doorstep. Some you’ve met, some you’ll meet for the first time this year.

It’s not like we don’t mention them, it’s just, if a team claims to have it’s sights set on the playoffs, or what we should really be calling it, a duplication of last year’s jump, another 14 game improvement, you tend to do better when you insulate your team from the inconsistencies of youth.

Let me put it this way and see if it makes sense to you. If the Pirates were to sign a guy like Michael Lorenzen, I’d be happy, it fills a need with a veteran pitcher who’s seen a lot, pitched in playoff games, has been in the pen and the rotation. I’d want the team to plan on having him hold down a rotation spot to start the season, even as I sit here and openly tell you I think Priester, Ortiz, Contreras, Jones, Skenes, Solometo, Sullivan, Ascraft, all have higher ceilings.

Couple things here.

Experience matters, that’s why so many of us feel it’s vital they provide some of it for this pitching staff. Mitch Keller is a fine example, but he’s really entering the first year where he has some founded and rather lofty expectation on him, I’m not sure I want him solely responsible for being staff dad too. God forbid he himself get injured, we’d have the entire rotation looking to…er…umm..Contreras? Maybe that’s wishful thinking?

OK, so experience helps steady the ship but there’s a balance you have to walk. You can’t let it stifle those ceilings, you just can’t rely on those ceilings.

Next, we really have to open our eyes a bit when we talk pitching. I just named 9 guys who all could wind up making starts in Pittsburgh this year. I made no attempt to name all of the scraps and pieces they have lying around, I just skipped to the kids. I’m not talking about the returning from injury guys like Brubaker and Burrows either, but I could. 9, 10, 11 pitchers, go ahead, get where you want to.

Now know these important things. 2 or 3 of them will struggle and take steps back. 2 or 3 of them will get injured and not help much. 2 or 3 of them will contribute more than you think. That’s just odds. You go get veterans to even the odds. You add them to the pool because of all the ways they could fail, you’re pretty sure of the ways they won’t. Heck, some of them could very well be traded for one of those whacky veterans.

Can I make you a starting 5 out of what they have in-house? Yeah, I can tell you what I’d hope it would be, or maybe better said, who I’d want to perform and win the gigs.

Keller, Contreras, Ortiz, Priester, Falter/Jackson. If they do absolutely nothing, this is how I’d hope it shook out. This, well simply put, this would be best for business. Contreras has no options, if he looks like he did last year they might be forced to call it quits on him. Obviously, it would be much better for the Pirates if he found his mojo. Ortiz isn’t far behind, he has options, but in no way has proven he’s going to start. Damn him for his occasional 7 inning shove fests!

Priester is going to look different this year. I don’t say this because I know what he is doing right now, or whom he’s training with, or what his velo is hitting. I say this because every single year of his development he’s come to camp the next year bigger, stronger, more focused, and sharper on at the very least what he was challenged with. It’ll come down to talent with him, but he won’t suffer for effort, or any of the intangibles. Plus, it’s important to have first round picks turn out to at least be Major League players, even if your current front office didn’t select them.

The other two because why not? Falter and Jackson as a piggy back pair worked some last year, if that’s what they did in this scenario, ok. Holds back everyone else I honestly think need some time.

Again, that’s a fairy tale in which everyone is healthy, and pitches well. You know as well as I do it won’t happen. Now look at how thin the experience level gets. Name me one team that made the playoffs with 4 rookies starting 20 games each. I’ll wait.

On MLB the Show, I’d start Keller, Skenes (who’s totally ready), Brubaker (who’s totally healthy), Oviedo (again…), and Contreras who never had a fall from grace for any reason at all. In fact, on that game he’s probably you’re 2. LOL

Real life is messy. Simulations aren’t messy enough.

Fill the rotation at least partially from outside and cross your fingers.

2. Do We Want Rowdy Friends this Monday Night?

Rowdy Tellez. Daniel Vogelbach’s slightly more successful cousin. Left handed, white Cecil Fielder. He of the almost routine looking first to third on a screaming double to the gap.

Look, he was non-tendered because while he had a terrible year, largely driven by health, he was due close to 6 million in arbitration.

OK, elephant in the room, he hit 35 dingers in 2022 for Milwaukee. You can’t afford to just dismiss that, but when guys with physiques like that start having physical issues, it gets hard to trust. That said, if you’re sold on the Pirates already having first base options with Joe and Triolo, why not take a swing on a guy like this for like 5-6 mil? Best case, he hits 30-35 bombs from the left side. Worst case, you flat out DFA him if you can’t get a trade together. No worse an effort than Choi or Yoshi. Each were in that price range.

Seems maybe worth it offensively.

Defensively, hmmm, he’s better than Yoshi was but probably not as good as Michael Chavis.

Can you deal with it for 30-35 bombs? Maybe. Can you afford the liability with pitching being where it is? Maybe.

I don’t think he’s the safest bet, but he’s probably the one that offers the biggest potential profit.

You know me, if I thought it warranted no discussion I’d probably just say that.

I should also say, it’s his last year of arbitration. So if he’s good and you wanna keep him, he’s on the market. That said, at 29, he looks more poised for continuing an early descension toward retirement than he does ready to embark on his prime years.

I dunno. I won’t fight you if you want him, but I probably won’t campaign either, feel me?

Oh, one more thing. He’s cement for a run game. Wherever you put him, it’s gonna take an extra base hit unless he’s at 3rd. Again, it’s all about the homers. If you think they’re there, you deal with some of this known downside stuff. Or, you don’t. I’d also think being part of a true platoon could help him, unfortunately I think it would take enough at bats to never see him hit 30 again.

See what you do to me when you ask if the Pirates should be interested in a guy? And maybe they should?

3. Winter (meetings) is Coming

The annual winter meetings will be held December 3-6 in Nashville Tennessee. Something will happen there aside from a few baseball agents trying to convince struggling singers they might be able to help them as music agents, at least for a few days. No, actual trades, actual free agent signings will start popping off.

Part of that is tradition, execs get together and it’s easier to deal in person. Maybe you don’t think as hard before replying face to face. Part of it is also that agents have hijacked and openly hold court at these proceedings. Boras brings his own pop up branded backdrop for all his media hits live from the Winter meetings.

It’s gross. I actually had to stop for a few minutes to let my stomach settle before continuing.

I get it, they need face to face as well, I just don’t appreciate it. Maybe it’s because I don’t root for a team that will ever be spoken about by any of them unless it’s to admonish them for not offering half a billion for someone, you know, cause they don’t want to win.

That said, for those of you increasingly concerned the market isn’t rolling, look no further, during that short spread of dates, there will be something. Some news, probably even some Bucco news. I’m hoping Ben Cherington has dinner plans every night, and maybe cocktail get togethers after that, it’d be ok if he wanted to meet for waffles too, nothing wrong with that.

Sincerely, this is where some dominoes will start to fall. Even if the Buccos don’t do anything, things that start the ball rolling will happen that force action down the food chain.

4. Hall of Fame Voting

Most people will focus on the main ballot and argue about steroids and all that, have at it, I’m just going to remind everyone that my portrait of “baseball manager” that pops up in the old fashioned AI that is my brain, Jim Leyland is up for possible induction.

The Hall has changed some of their voting procedures in these “passed over” types and mainly, it’s been to add more categories. Now instead of just having one ballot for these types with everyone from ever fighting over getting in and being eternally locked out by comparisons to someone who isn’t in and played 76 years ago, they’ve broken it up into two timelines: the Classic Baseball Era (pre-1980) and the Contemporary Baseball Era (1980 -Current Eligible). Additionally, the Contemporary Baseball Era will have a separate ballot for the non players, such as managers, executives, and umpires. 

The idea is that these will cycle through one per year, and this year has fallen on the non player category.

Enter Jimmy.

I’m not qualified to make some impassioned plea for why Jim Leyland should beat out guys like Lou Pinella or Cito Gaston. I can’t tell you he deserves it more than Davey Johnson. I might have an aneurism if Joe West beats him out. Seriously.

Look all I’m saying is, he may not have won it all here, but he delivered closer than I’ve ever been treated to since. After that, all he did was win it all with the Marlins, scout for another lifetime, coach some more, scout again, all the while being seemingly the one guy everyone I know in the game respects that didn’t deliver a championship to this city.

Maybe we liked him because he looked like half the guys at the Hungarian Club on a Wednesday night sitting in the dugout blowing through a heater before going out to spit fire at an umpire, you know, like Joe West.

I had an interaction with Mr. Leyland at a Pirates Caravan event back in the day. Just a dumb 14 year old smart assed kid. You know what I mean, Dad’s idea to go to this, so you act like you’re entirely unimpressed. Too cool for the Parrot. You get it. So Leyland is signing autographs and I got one, I said some smart assed comment about Barry’s arm. Honestly can’t even remember what it was but I always thought I was hilarious. Something I’ve tried and failed to grow out of, but I digress. He barely reacted, just kinda sighed and handed me the baseball card.

I’ve gone on my way now for a while doing other stuff, getting other autographs, not even thinking about that interaction with Leyland really, didn’t even know enough to appreciate the audience you know.

30 some minutes later, I look up and Leyland is headed right for me, then he stops. Looks at me and says, as closely as I can remember anyway, if you ever once saw all those players in the locker room after a loss like that, you’d never make a comment like that again.

Why the hell I stuck in his craw that much, I’ll never know. Do those words rattle in my head every time I have a chance to talk to a player or coach today, oh yeah.

Hey, I got sidetracked, I’m halfway through life now people, give me a break, I’m gonna tell stories. Whatever, vote for Jimmy, even if he’s not the best, I just think he’s worthy, for many roles.

Depending on your age, you have your Pirates manager. Murtaugh, Tanner, Leyland, and yes, some of you probably have Hurdle. I think there are 3 on that list who should be in the hall, here’s an opportunity to address one.

5. This Pirates Lineup Has Potential

There’s a lot to learn yet. The Pirates could upgrade or fortify several positions and force some of these kids to re-earn their spot on the 26-man. I find it hard to believe there will be much of that, but the framework of this lineup has the potential to do damage in more than one way.

I have my concerns of course. I don’t look at it and say it screams playoff bound. But I also acknowledge it’s very young.

I break it down like this…

Fully Evolved Hitter
Bryan Reynolds – He is what he is. I don’t mean that in a bad way. Reynolds is one of those hitters who I think in a good lineup can to a degree become more of what you need him to be. If they need average and on base I think he can provide that, if they need homers I think he can sacrifice a bit from one side and sell out for a bit more pop. Sometimes that’s gonna look like MVP, sometimes its gonna look like an All Star by reputation, but it’s always gonna help more than it hurts.

Still Finding It
Ke’Bryan Hayes – I love what Ke’ put on tape last year. He made a really nice adjustment that allowed him to counter what the league had started to exploit. This type of pushback will happen throughout a career, so seeing him maintain through the offseason what he put into practice last year is going to tell us a lot. All we know right now is at times Ke’Bryan Hayes has a bat that can carry an offense for stretches. What we have yet to see is can he find his way to consistency year over year? Very encouraged by 2023, but 2024 could put this team in great shape offensively if he shows up swinging like he did to wrap the year.

We’ve Seen the Potential
Oneil Cruz – We, and Cruz for that matter, were robbed of a year of development. Oh…did you think I’d say playoffs? Hey, maybe that too, but for me, 2023 was the absolute perfect environment for Oneil to go through an entire season. The ups, the downs, the adjustments, the physical toil, the defensive reps, the at bats against lefties, learning what to do when the league starts pitching at your hands. All of that. And now, there’s simply no choice but to do it in 2024. Ideally, You’re returning this guy as a proven out stud this year, armed with yet another off season full of growth. The real cost of that injury is this, not a theoretical playoff berth.

Jack Suwinski – Jack has shown at the very least prodigious power. It’s effortless power when it’s on plane, and therein lies the rub with Jack. He is a learner, and he’ll adjust as he’s instructed to do so. What that created in 2023 was a half season swoon in production. The league diagnosed Jack, and it’s partially because he’s too good of a student. So practiced in the art of “his pitch” or “his zone” was Jack, pitchers identified with help from scouting departments and analytics nerds of course, that he simply wasn’t going to swing at strikes. There were zones in the strike zone that Jack had proven he wasn’t going to swing at, and his success rate when doing so is the culprit. Either way, the pitcher won so long as they didn’t make a mistake. He either K’d or dribbled out. Finally an adjustment was made at the end of the season and while he did hit the baseball hard, I believe if he sticks with this approach, he’ll be a more rounded hitter, but maybe less inclined to hit 35 homeruns. I hope that makes sense. I feel he has enough power to pile up 25-30 just by hitting, or he could “try” to hit them, pop maybe 40-45 but everything else kinda never happens. Big year for Jack.

Folks, them’s the building blocks of this lineup. Those 4 right there will have much to say about where this team goes this year. Regardless of anyone they go get, these 4 will have to have prominent roles.

These four will hit between 80 – 120 home runs if I had my guess and for perspective the team hit 159 collectively in 2023. 65 homeruns last season from Hayes, Reynolds and Jack. 1 from Oneil. Makes the prediction seem kinda doable right?

Everyone else, including Henry, Gonzales, Endy, Peggy, Bae, Triolo, you know, all the kids, when I do a list like this next year, hopefully some of them are on it. If you think you’ve seen enough of any of these guys to know what you’re getting, I’ll humbly suggest you pump the brakes, and let them show you. Good or Bad.

For now, they’re one conglomeration of potential bats. They all have something to like, they all have to fix something to make that matter or add something else.

The potential is there, the biggest question mark for a decent jump is Cruz. Hate to put that much on him, but if he takes some time to get going, which honestly would be quite understandable, they simply have no choice but to let him do it. I would have (and did) say the same exact things about Cruz before 2023 and heading into that season I thought he’d hit 25-30 dingers. Hard to subtract from that, even if I account for rust.