Two Guys Talkin’ Trades – Let’s Grab Some Pitching!

8-1-23 – By Justin Verno & Corey Shrader – @JV_PITT and @CoreyShrader on Twitter

Justin Verno- Welcome back Corey! We are a week or so away from the Winter Meetings. We’ve looked at selling some pieces and last week Joe and I took a stab at adding some bats to the lineup. You down to add to the starting rotation? 

Corey Shrader- It is refreshing to be able to make some pitches to add pieces. It feels like we haven’t been able to do these in some time. This team needs to supplement some pitching to its younger stable of arms to take proper steps forward.

JV- With so many free agent starters that looked like a good fit for the Bucs now off the board, one has to wonder if the Pirates could look at adding two starters via trade. I certainly think that could be on the table.

CS- I anticipate adding a starter via trade and at least one via free agency could be a realistic outcome for this offseason. If one thing is evident in the modern version of Major League Baseball, it is that everyone wants and needs more viable pitching options. 

JV- Let’s get to it. I’m leading off here with a name that I have a feeling will be connected to Ben Cherington. Fans have already made the jump. With the 11th pick in the 2011 Draft, the Blue Jays took Alek Manoah. GMBC was vice president of baseball ops for Toronto at the time.  It’s been said that the Blue Jays have Alek Manoah on the market making this an easy jump to make. 

While I had hoped that the Bucs would move past the “reclamation projects”  as they are on the cusp of a wild card chase, I feel this is one that just makes too much sense for us to not look at. So much so that perhaps we both give a quick package and move on?

 Manoah still has four years of control left, but at this point he’s more of a reclamation project. It’s hard to envision his SV any higher than $15-25M. Does that sound like a fair surplus value? 

CS- Toronto Gets:

Liover Peguero – 2B/SS Debuted 

This cost sort of stings given the flashes Peggy showed in 2023 and the relatively god awful year Manoah had. I do think for the Jays to be motivated to move the big guy it would take something like this (maybe more?) to get it done. For the chance to land an arm that has so much promise, I would be tempted to pay it.

JV- Toronto gets:

Ji Whan Bae-2B/CF/SS-Debuted (SV $25-35)

Another piece where I’m giving up Bae. Another piece where I’m giving up a 2B to the Jays. Bae is projected at a WAR of .8 in 75 games if the Jays can get 1.6 WAR season out of Bae I’d think they’d be happy. And perhaps they have more luck getting his bat going than the Pirates did.

 But all in all  the Jays have a need at 2B, and the Bucs have a surplus at 2B. The Bucs need starters, the Jays have Manoah (possibly) on the trade block. Peanut butter, meet chocolate. 

Corey, a side note on Manoah-

I’m not sure I get the Jays making Alek available in a trade, why sell so low on a dude who had a fantastic year in 2022? Manoah experienced a hefty drop in just about every metric and a  year ago he would have been untouchable. Looking over his 2023 campaign I see no world where they get anywhere close to top value for him.

Is GMBC comfortable enough giving up a larger package that I’m sure Toronto will want to part with Alek? I think that  the most  I’d be ok with adding is a Thomas Harington type?

CS- The Manoah question is a difficult one to grapple with. The version of him when he is “right” is undeniably very good. Why would they trade him now? Had to say. Perhaps it is a mutual need to move on? Maybe they do not think he can be “fixed”? Really an interesting situation to monitor.

JV- Alright, enough of Alek Manoah. Let’s get to the heart of it.  I’m starting off my packages with the more reasonable deal. 

My team? Seattle Mariners. This is an add piece but Imma cheat just a little bit here. 

The deal

Mariners get:

Ji Hwan Bae-2B/SS/CF-Debuted SV $25-35M

Bae again? Yes, Bae again. Bae showed the reasons he was so highly regarded this year albeit it was a mixed bag. Still though, the upside jumped off the pages here and there. I ultimately think this is the guy the Bucs end up moving in some deal or other. Mariners have a need at 2B and getting Bae doesn’t break the bank.

Pirates get-

Emerson Hancock-SP-Debuted-FV 45($4M)

Hancock debuted but still has prospect status. The kid finally got healthy and  started to show some of the talent that made him a top pick.The FB is solid enough but the reason I’d still love to add Emerson Hancock(this is about the 4th time I suggested him in a deal) is his secondary stuff fits the profile of what the Bucs like. His two best offerings are his slider and change up. The Bucs have really done good work with some of their prospects change ups this year. 

Hancock still having prospect status means the SV is a landslide here. The Bucs could seek more unless the Mariners convince them to view Emerson and his MLB projections. GMBC should push for more. I’ll hold it with Emerson here though as an MLB ready pitcher is worth more than their FV/SV numbers, particularly since he seems to be an “arrow up” guy at the moment.  That said, if GMBC could squeeze CF Jonatan Clase out of them I’d be ecstatic.

CS- Hancock is the type of younger pitcher I could envision the Bucs pursuing. I think the “ready” but not yet debuted/established pitcher deal makes sense from an organizational trajectory standpoint – but it does not quite fit the current “need” quite as much. 

Since you got a little “cheating” in here, I just want to mention that I had a similar deal in mind but with Minnesota. So allow me to do some cheating & I will throw an aside here about it and leave it about as clear as mud.

The Deal:

Pirates get: 

David Festa, P – FV 50 ($21M)

OR

Matt Canterino, P – FV 40+ ($3M)

Now where this gets tricky is finding a clear matching swap between teams for the bigger piece, David Festa. It is easy to look at the Twins and see a team that is aware of its own struggles with the health of key players and prioritize adding pieces with versatility at the expense of moving from a position of depth. However, pitching is an area that is almost always in need of reinforcement in-season. 

Festa made it to AAA in late 2023. He put up respectable numbers in a small sample there, but his BB rate did balloon. While I would mostly ignore this, it does not appear that he will ever be a control arm. Frankly, that doesn’t matter much to me overall. His stuff is wicked & he possesses a workhorse size & what is hailed to be surprising athleticism for a man of his size (6’6”, only sub-200lbs however). 

The other possible option is more of a personal favorite of Matt Canterino. 

Canterino missed all of 2023 with an injury. There is extreme risk here. But he has really nuclear grade stuff. While he does not exactly meet the requirements of what we are looking for in this piece, I want to mention him because he is currently on the Twins 40 man roster. Given his injury status & history, he might be someone that the Twins are swayed to move. If they feel moving him could open up a 40 man spot for a player like Festa or another Rule 5 eligible piece they are compelled to protect, it makes sense to move Canterino before the R5 deadline & draft. 

Twins get:

Jared Triolo, UT

I am not quite certain that this gets it done for Festa, but it seems close. Triolo came on stronger with the bat than many expected in 2023. While his underlying numbers are not quite that strong, his skillset might be something like a poor man’s Isaac Paredes with double plus defense. 

In full transparency, this particular move feels quite unrealistic. I have a gut feeling that Triolo is going to be a key cog on this team given his defensive ability and versatility. 

In a smaller move for Canterino I could see someone like Tony Blanco, an intriguing prospect that is far away and a non-Rule 5 factor. Or perhaps even a Nick Gonzales. Former early first round selection with prospect pedigree and versatility that they could try to “fix.”

Like I said, this one is not super clean to get done in my own mind, so I am sure actually getting it done in real life is even more difficult!

JV- Now on to the main course. The big move, the shake down. And Corey, you mentioned to me the other day that this task will not be easy.  There just aren’t a lot of arms out there. 

I used the Seattle Mariners for my reasonable package, and ya know what, Corey? I’m looking at them again in a more aggressive move. 

Pirates get-

Bryce Miller-SP-Debuted-SV- hard to gauge

Miller is a big time FB guy. Where scores out at a 70 on the scale. The nice part here is he has five  pitches in his tool bag. His slider and cutter grade out at a 50 FV while his change up and curveball come in at a 45, respectively. He’s controlled thru 29 making that SV hard to calculate. It won’t be cheap to land Miller but the Pirates have something that just might work

Mariners get-

Liover Pegureo- 2B/SS-Debuted-SV- hard to gauge

The Mariners have a need at 2B and the Bucs have that surplus, see above. If the Bucs were to go after Miller the prize headed back just cannot be Bae, gotta be bigger. Liover may not be the name that Miller was but his first look in the MLB showed promise. The power looked solid as did his glove work at second. Miller certainly had a better debut but it should be noted that Peggy was only 22 to Millers 25. I think this would be a solid first piece for the Mariners. 

The Mariners would need a nice second piece here. A 40 FV or 40+ FV type I think could be close. If the Mariners insisted on a Thomas Harringotn I would not be upset to see GMBC give the go ahead. 

CS – I too am bringing a main dish to the table. And mine is much more akin to the type of food that some very small percentage of people will be excited about, maybe like a piping hot dish of haggis. Sure, the haggis enthusiasts at dinner are going to love it. The rest of the dinner guests are sure to be disappointed. So, here it is:

The Rays get:

Endy Rodriguez, C/1B

Pirates get:

Tyler Glasnow, P

Xavier Isaac, 1B FV 40+

So once you take a deep breath from either screaming in anger or laughing at the idea of this, hear me out. 

Everyone knows the downside to Tyler Glasnow. Injuries pile up for the guy. On top of that, he makes $25 million in 2024 and will become a UFA in 2025. But, there is an upside here too. When he has pitched, he is a near ace. Envisioning a rotation with Keller & Glasnow at 1 and 2 is mighty tempting. I think you need to assume that Glasnow is probably a longshot to exceed 150 IP given that he just posted his career high Major League IP of 120. 

Mentioning those issues with Glasnow, the second piece here would be crucial. Xavier Isaac is definitely one of “my guys” when it comes to favorite prospects. His current FV on Fangraphs undersells how good of a prospect he is by magnitudes. At just 19 he posted 71 runs, 19 homers, 72 RBI, 12 steals, a 14.5/21.2 BB/K%, and elite wOBA and near elite wRC+ figure between A/A+ ball in 2023. 

To move a prospect the caliber of Endy Rodriguez, Isaac would need to be the type of additional player added on to this deal. 

The idea of Pittsburgh trading their 1A catcher is tough to sell though. Similarly, Tampa Bay moving both their current ace & the 1B prospect that they traded Kyle Manzardo to clear a path for is similarly tough to sell. Like I said earlier, this one would be liked by a small number & most likely hated by a large number. But it is something that I would personally be open to. It would address an immediate hole, top end starting pitching, and a long term hole, the first base position, with a truly “elite” 1B prospect. 

             -Parting thoughts-

JV- The pitching market is tough this season. Not a lot of big names look to be available on the market.  With the new play-off rules it seems a little harder to sort out the “buyers” from the “sellers”. 

The only thing I can say for sure here, Corey?  With how the Bucs seem to be approaching the FA market I have to think they will get at least one starter via a trade.  Here’s to hoping they don’t grab them off the 70% off racks at Kohl’s.
CS- As the days go by this winter more and more “realistic” FA targets for Pittsburgh are going off the shelf. I hope you’re right and we see Pittsburgh jump into the 2023 NL Central race sooner rather than later. Otherwise, it will be another offseason of playing the fringes and bargain shopping only.