Outfield Breakdown: 2024 Edition

1-1-24 – By Michael Castrignano –@412DoublePlay on X

Last year, I wrote a piece dissecting the options in the outfield. This year, I’ve decided to dig even deeper into the current options for the 26-man, 40-man and depth beyond. There’s a congestion that has emerged among our outfield options with some internal options – as well as some acquisitions made this off-season. Let’s talk through all of the players who may see time in Pittsburgh this year:

Bryan Reynolds

First off, pending injuries or a wild left turn trade, All Star Bryan Reynolds should be expected as the everyday left fielder for the Bucs. Last year, in his first full season roaming left, his defensive numbers were not great as he rated below average in all defensive measures: -3 outs above average in left over 965 innings out there – mostly due to his poor range when moving backwards and either to his left or right – and another -1 over 114 innings manning center. But looking past that, you didn’t give the biggest contract in your franchise history to Reynolds for his glovework.

Bad news first: his numbers across the board were down over the past few seasons. Looking back to his career year of 2021, his wOBA dropped from .385 that season, to .349 in 22 and .338 in 23. His wRC+ went from 140 to 124 to 110. Walk rate, on-base, slugging – all down, obviously concerning, but if we look at the advanced metrics, Reynolds should have had a much better year than he had. 

Among qualified hitters, Reynolds had the 41st highest expected wOBA at .360. His expected batting average of .280 was quite higher than his actual .263 while his expected slugging of .490 was a full 30 points higher than what he ended up posting at .460. That expected line is close to what Reds outfielder TJ Friedl posted with a .279/.352/456 triple slash, good for an .819 OPS – nearly 30 points higher than what Reynolds actually netted. A big reason for that drop was his results against the fastball, a pitch he absolutely CRUSHED in 2022, slugging .615 against the offering. And while his whiff% and K% were both down against the pitch in 2023 while his hard hit rate somehow went up, his batting average against it went from .302 to .275 and his slugging cratered to .472 – still very good, but obviously not close to what he did the previous two years.

While nothing is guaranteed in sports – or really, anywhere outside death and taxes – a regression to the mean could have Reynolds posting a much stronger year in 2024.

Jack Suwinski

Next up is Jack Suwinski. Love him or hate him, the organization loves him. So, it doesn’t really matter what you think, the kid is here to stay for the foreseeable future. Acquired in the 2021 trade with the Padres which sent Adam Frazier to the west coast and brought Jack and Tucupita Marcano to the Pirates organization, Jack was initially thought of as the throw-in for this trade. General Manager Ben Cherington had aggressively pursued Marcano during the Joe Musgrove trade discussions the previous offseason and was eager to get him this time. Well, Marcano’s time with the Bucs has come and gone but Suwinski has proved himself an integral piece in the lineup.

While profiling better defensively in right, Jack spent his first full MLB season primarily in center with mostly solid metrics there. His 3 outs above average were serviceable but ranked 30th out of 38 qualified players who primarily played the position in 2023. His struggles were primarily against left handed hitters and batted balls where he had to come in to make the play. He was able to make up for slow starts with his legs as his sprint speed of 28.6 feet per second was in 81 percentile, per BaseballSavant.

Looking at his offensive profile, he excels in 3 areas: Barrel rate (15.7%), Chase rate (18.2%) and walk rate (14%) – all of which rank in the top 6% of baseball. So he doesn’t swing at balls out of the zone, allowing him to take walks, and when he does swing at balls in the zone, he makes solid contact. Unfortunately, there is a LOT of swing-and-miss to Jack’s game as his Whiff rate (30.1%) and strikeout rate (32.2%) are both well below league average, he was still able to improve from his rookie season with a respectable 112 wRC+ and a 2.8 fWAR on the year.

Of all the players on the Pirates roster, Suwinski is the one fans feel is most prone to extreme slumps or surges. In August 2023, he went 10-for-77 with a .130/.295/.234 triple slash over 24 games played that month. Over the final 27 games, he flipped a switch with a .289/.359/.489 line which included 4 home runs, 4 doubles and a triple with 12 runs and 18 RBI. 

Is that September surge sustainable over a full season? Likely not as his final month of stats were highly elevated by a .361 BABIP (his season BABIP was .290) but he can certainly be more of that type of hitter than the August one fans were loath to watch play. One way the team can aid in that regard is by sitting Suwinski against southpaws – or at least the tougher ones.

When facing lefties, Jack struck out at a 41.7% clip (compared to 29.1% vs, RHP) while slashing .200/.295/.313 – good for a wRC+ of 68. Against right-handed pitching, he walked 15.2% and slashed .232/.353/.503 with a wRC+ of 127. Basically, he’s Luis Robert Jr against righties and Myles Straw against lefties. Having him sit in favor of our next name could help aid those numbers.

Edward Olivares

Edward Olivares was acquired last month from the Kansas City Royals in exchange for minor leaguer Deivis Nadal. Olivares is the polar opposite of Suwinski: low K rate (16.9%) with a decent whiff rate (22.9%) but a below average walk rate (5.7%). His defense was rated very poorly in 2023, playing 52 games in spacious Kauffman Stadium but it was also his first real taste of consistent playing time. His 385 plate appearances in 2023 almost matched his total over the previous 3 seasons (386) so his -7 Outs Above Average and -11 Defensive Runs Saved can potentially be taken with a grain of salt but is still something to remember heading into 2024.

Offensively, he was solid throughout his time in the minors with a .807 OPS over his 2,481 plate appearances. He posted a 109 OPS+ last year in a part-time role with a last place Royals team with strong numbers against breaking balls but struggled against 4-seam fastballs (-6 run value) and changeups (-3 RV). Despite that, his advanced metrics across the board were favorable, as were some of his player comps.

How the team chooses to use Olivares as part of the outfield mix is still to be decided but he is certainly an option they should consider either full-time in right field or as a platoon of sorts for Suwinski (.857 OPS against LHP in 2023 vs. .728 against RHP).

Joshua Palacios

If you watched the Pirates games last season, specifically late in games, you may have noticed a certain player consistently getting clutch hits. Joshua Palacios, selected in the Minor League portion of the Rule 5 Draft the previous year, definitely excelled when the pressure was the highest. Despite a wRC+ of 83 and an OPS of .692, Palacios posted a triple slash of .323/.364/.613 and wRC+ of 159 in high leverage situations, effectively turning into Matt Olson (wRC+ of 160) when the lights shined brightest.

While those numbers are fun to see in a vacuum, the small sample size coupled with what he did outside of that was uninspiring. He did post above average numbers for average exit velocity (91.3 MPH) and hard hit rate (45.4%) but, again, it’s a small sample size and his past numbers do not indicate a strong likelihood of repeating the late-game heroics on a regular basis.

Having a bench bat that clubbed 10 long balls in just 264 plate appearances last season isn’t a bad thing. Palacios does have a strong arm and decent defense in the corners so he could fit as a 4th outfielder, or use his remaining option and head back to Indianapolis as depth for the team. 

Canaan Smith-Njigba

Here’s a disclaimer before I dive into this next player: I am a HUGE fan of Canaan Smith-Njigba! He has an excellent eye at the plate, sneaky speed and power and serious athletic pedigree with his brother, Jaxon, having a strong rookie season with the Seattle Seahawks. 

That all aside, it may be tough to see a future for CSN on this team. For starters, he is defensively limited to a corner outfield spot and, with only Suwinski penciled in for center so far, that leaves a number of players for him to leap-frog for playing time. 

Smith-Njigba came over from the Yankees as part of the return in the Jameson Taillon trade – a trade which is quickly looking less and less fruitful for the Bucs as he struggled to a .435 OPS over 32 at-bats with the Pirates in 2023. 

This came off the heels of a VERY strong spring training, which saw Smith-Njigba crush 3 home runs, drive in 14 and post a .990 OPS. His minor league numbers tell a different story with a career .810 OPS over 1,888 plate appearances, bolstered by a Brandon Nimmo-esque ability to get on base. 

Actually, strike that, CSN has technically performed better:

Also, just a reminder that CSN is an on-base MACHINE. 

In 2023 at AAA Indianapolis, he posted a .366 OBP over 445 trips to the dish – good for 73rd highest in the International League. It’s a modest line that was also his lowest mark at any full-season level of his pro baseball career. 

It’s possible that he was too distracted by trying to get back to the bigs – especially early in the year – before finishing with a strong September with a .417/.475/.625 triple slash with 10 runs, 24 RBI and 11 extra-base hits over just 19 games.

If he can keep that type of play heading into the 2024 season, he may quickly make a case to get back to PNC Park.

Ji-hwan Bae

It wasn’t too long ago that Ji-hwan Bae was ranked as one of the top prospects in the Pirates system. Out of South Korea, Bae originally signed with the Atlanta Braves in 2017 but the deal was nullified as a result of some “fraudulent contract negotiations,” leaving the Pirates there to scoop him up.

Bae hit all through the minors – never batting under .280 or OPS-ing under .780 at any level of full-season ball – but his mix of speed (20 or more stolen bases in last 3 full seasons in the minors) and his positional versatility made his September 2022 call-up to the Bucs an easy decision. Posting a .333/.405/424 triple slash over 37 plate appearances while going 3-for-3 in stolen base attempts gave the organization confidence that he would slot in as a productive piece of the lineup and in the field.

Unfortunately, his offense took a hit in his first full season with the Pirates, managing just a .231/.296/.311 line and, while he stole 24 bases on the year, much of that was achieved early in the season as he only stole 4 bases in the 2nd half in 7 attempts. The contact/speed part of his game wasn’t showing up quite as expected at the biggest stage with bottom tier exit velocity and contact rates to go along with an average launch angle of 1.1 – basically just hitting the ball into the ground every at-bat.

Defensively, things were more of a mixed bag for Bae as he split time between center field (336.2 innings) and middle infield (489.1), grading out below average in the infield but with positive marks (3 Outs Above Average) in the outfield.

His speed is in the top 3% in baseball allowing him to make up for poor jumps with elite closing speed – matching pretty fairly on both sides of the ball with his closest comp, Oakland center fielder, Esteury Ruiz. And, as it stands right now, Bae is the only player on the roster who can play at least average defense in center field in the event Suwinski needs a day off or suffers an injury.

With the current backlog from second base options, getting reps in center is Bae’s best route to regular playing time. If he can utilize that speed for some more infield singles and stolen bases (and look past the more unsavory part of Bae’s past), he can be a productive member of this team for the foreseeable future.

Henry Davis/Connor Joe

According to the Pirates 40-man roster, two other names are currently listed under their ‘Outfielders’ group: 2020 first overall draft pick, Henry Davis, and another first round pick from the 2014 draft, Connor Joe.

While they potentially could see time in the outfield for the Bucs this year, it seems more likely they settle into alternative positions on the field.

Davis was drafted and developed as a catcher. He caught in college and, with the exception of 2 games in 2022, had only caught or played DH all through the minors coming into the 2023 season. But the team needed outfield help and how hard could it be to learn?

Despite an arm ranking in the 98th(!) percentile, Davis struggled with tracking the ball or even fielding it cleanly, committing 4 errors over 417.1 innings in right field. Additionally, he was worth -6 outs above average and -9 in defensive runs saved.

Granted, plenty of outfielders out there are pretty terrible with the glove. Phillies outfielder Kyle Schwarber posted a -19 OAA and -21 DRS; however, he posted a 1.4 fWAR due in large part to his ability with the bat. Davis, for all the pomp and circumstance, was not able to post much offensive value.

While the power potential is there, there are definitely steps he will need to take to get to the next level. His 78 OPS+ and -1.4 bWAR/-1.0 fWAR were well below expectations. After posting a 1.120 OPS over 14 games at Indianapolis, he struggled to a .653 OPS in Pittsburgh.

Learning a new position, essentially on the fly, is a very difficult task and can impact other areas of your game. Davis, clearly, was no exception. With Endy Rodriguez requiring surgery that will take him out for the 2024 season, the catching job is Henry’s to lose. 

On the other side, Connor Joe actually had a strong season in his return to the Pittsburgh organization. After being drafted in 2014, he was dealt to the Atlanta Braves in return for Sean Rodriguez and bounced around a few organizations before the Pirates re-acquired him from the Colorado Rockies last off-season for prospect Nick Garcia.

Joe came into 2023 with over 100 MLB games playing outfield and posted mixed results as his +1 OAA and -3 DRS suggest he was, at best, a mediocre defender. Continuing the trend of strong arms, Joe’s 84th percentile helped him net 3 outfield assists last year.

His bat showed improvement last season with career highs across the board, tying the team lead in doubles with 31, but most of his contributions come from his patience at the plate. Joe had an elite chase rate (19.6%) and walked 10.6% of the time contributing to a 107 OPS+ despite inconsistent playing time and moving between outfield and first base – which may be a primary position for Joe in 2024.

With the addition of LHH Rowdy Tellez, Connor Joe seems targeted for a platoon role at first base, especially given his .816 OPS vs. LHP in 2023. Similar to Davis, it is possible we see Joe playing some time in the outfield but there likely will be more reps spent elsewhere.

Andrew McCutchen

With the recent announcement that Andrew McCutchen will be returning for at least one more year with the Bucs, a key refrain kept popping up among supporters and opponents alike: Will Cutch play more outfield in 2024 than he did in 2023?

After spending his first 9 MLB seasons in Pittsburgh, seeing Cutch return to the Pirates after 5 seasons away generated a nostalgic euphoria among fans long missing in PNC Park. And his return generated solid results, posting a .256/.378/.397 triple slash over 473 plate appearances last season – most of which came out of the Designated Hitter position.

Cutch was hindered early in the season by a right elbow inflammation, which landed him on the injured list in July. A partial tear to his left achilles tendon on September 5 would prematurely end his return tour. 

Will these injuries linger into 2024? 

Cutch doesn’t think so. 

After netting just 8 games and 64.2 innings in the outfield last season, Cutch has expressed keen interest in being more than a “hood ornament” in his hopes to contribute in the grass as well as with the bat. The former Gold Glove winner may not have the range of his younger years but he still has plus speed and a keen eye to be able to track balls and make plays when he needs to.

Non-40 Man Options

Moving past the 40-man roster options, the upper minors will be flush with players who may or may not touch grass this year at PNC Park. Players struggle. Injuries happen.

Names like Billy McKinney and Gilberto Celestino may not be familiar to everyday Pirates fans but these minor league acquisitions from this past off-season have the potential to make it to the bigs at some point this season. Former highly touted prospects in Matt Gorski and Matt Fraizer are also waiting in the wings, a key injury and surging breakout away from making their debuts.

There’s a lot of promise among the options available. And, while this group shouldn’t be the revolving door which we saw in the early days of this rebuild, don’t be surprised if – over the course of the year – an unfamiliar name or two appears in front of the Clemente Wall.