1-10-23 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X
Last week, I looked at the outfield, breaking down the myriad of options and illustrating the options and difficulties at filling the three positions (four, counting bench player) on the grass. This week, we’re looking at the 5 guys around the diamond and how that expects to look on Opening Day and beyond.
In 2023, there was a fair bit of turnover in the infield. It’s not necessarily a bad thing but an inordinate amount of different names at certain positions typically indicate that none of them are performing well. Last season, both shortstop and second base were a revolving door, including former Buccos of Tucupita Marcano, Rodolfo Castro, Mark Mathias and Vinny Capra. But, during the course of a rebuild like ours, that is often how it looks.
2022 had even more uncertainty in even more positions, culminating in 68 different names cycling through the roster at various points – the most of any season for the Pirates.
It may seem unlikely that the Bucs have as much rollover this season but, as we will discuss, there are certainly some areas which are not ironed out and could go to a number of players.
Catcher
Starting off behind the dish, a position with which there was so much promise heading into last year. Our former top overall pick, Henry Davis, and another top prospect acquired in a high-profile trade, Endy Rodriguez, each seemed poised to make the jump at some point in 2023. While both of them did, the results, unfortunately, were not what fans hoped to see as they both experienced significant setbacks and Davis was mostly relegated to right field to give more reps to his younger counterpart. This year, Davis will be on the forefront after a batting practice swing resulted in Endy needing Tommy John surgery, sidelining him for all of 2024 and losing a year of critical development.
While Davis seems the obvious candidate to take majority reps behind the dish, there are clear concerns. For one, his offensive proclivity for which he was lauded during his time at Louisville (.337/.435/.566 line with 21 home runs in 109 games) failed to seriously materialize as he had a paltry .213/.302/.351 in 62 MLB games with just 7 long-balls to his name. For another, the aforementioned exile to the outfield. The guy is clearly washed with the bat and the organization obviously has no confidence in the glove behind the dish.
Hopefully, you see where I’m going with this.
Injuries have been a common refrain in Henry’s professional career and 2023 was no different as he was dealt a bad hand – pun intended. Davis debuted on June 19th at home against the Chicago Cubs, going 1-for-4 with a run scored, a walk and a strikeout. His two batted balls had an average exit velocity of 105.7 MPH and started a stretch of 27 games where he would post a .295/.391/463 line with 4 doubles, 4 home runs and a BB/K rate of 12/20.
Unfortunately, at some point, he injured his right hand, battling through the pain before ultimately spending nearly a month on the injured list, returning to post unenviable numbers: .154/.234/.269 with 3 home runs, and average exit velocity of 88.1 during that span of 145 plate appearances.
How much of that was due to the injury versus the league punching back against a rookie is hard to say but fans should be rooting for Davis to succeed. Everything coming out from the organization, and from Davis himself, is about how tirelessly he’s been working both at the plate and behind it.
I didn’t mention his defense behind the dish as he only played 2 innings there with the Pirates in 2023 and…well, let’s just say there’s reason for concern. But, he’s here for his bat. If he can be at least serviceable behind the plate, it’s a clear win.
Behind him are Jason Delay with a career 68 wRC+ and Ali Sanchez, who was DFA’d from multiple teams already and has 6 major league games to his name. Both are defensively inclined and profile best in back-up roles, likely leaving only one of them in Pittsburgh and the other heading down to Indianapolis as depth.
First Base
This has been a weird position for the Pirates over the past, say, 25 years. Kevin Young posted a 5.6 bWAR in 1999 but since then, the Bucs have had just a handful of competent starting 1B and none matching their division rivals in that time. The position has become more of a carousel than a horse race as the team has struggled to maintain consistent output from the corner.
First off, elephant in the room: There have been rumors swirling that the Pirates are interested in bringing Carlos Santana back after his half season stint with the team last year. He provided a solid bat with Gold Glove caliber defense and clubhouse leadership which is immeasurably valuable. If that happens, things will certainly change, but for now, he’s still in the wind and we’re working with what we’ve got.
This year, the Pirates appear to be choosing a platoon of previously DFA’d slugger, Rowdy Tellez, and Connor Joe, who has been a league average hitter for most of his career. This isn’t the most eye-popping tandem but it has the potential to be productive if used correctly.
Tellez is coming off arguably the worst offensive year of his career. He managed just 13 home runs over 351 plate appearances – a steep drop from the 35 he clubbed the year prior, cutting his slugging percentage from a solid .461 in 2022 to a depressing .376 in 2023. Additionally, his strikeout rate jumped from 20.2% to 24.5% and his barrel rate, hard hit% and average exit velocity all trended downward. The positive news? That power potential might still be in there.
Rowdy suffered a freak injury last July, requiring surgery and leading him to miss 4 weeks of the season, and this was after he was already out 2 weeks due to right forearm inflammation. Prior to those injuries, his season wasn’t All Star caliber by any stretch but he had already hit 12 of his home runs.
Actually, his 12th of the season was on May 22nd – the 47th game of the season for the Brewers.
After that game, he held a .255/.350/.547 line with a 135 wRC+ and things just went downhill from there. If the coaching staff in Pittsburgh can figure out what went wrong, whether the start of his inflammation issue or something else, they’ve got a pretty good piece there.
His potential counterpart in Conner Joe endeared himself to Pirates fans with a 107 wRC+ season with fine but unspectacular defense. I detailed some of this in my outfield breakdown last week but the team sees his value. His walk and chase rates are both well above average, something the team has indicated preference to in the past. If he’s still on the team come Opening Day, they will give him opportunities to play.
Second Base
As mentioned before, this was a position of turmoil and turnover in 2023 with plenty of rookies given the opportunity to earn the spot and many of them failing horribly. Ji Hwan Bae (214 plate appearances) was given the longest leash and remains in the mix for the spot with a crop of up-and-comers in Nick Gonzales (99 PA), Liover Peguero (89 PA) and Jared Triolo (41 PA).
Bae proved to be a suboptimal defender at 2nd base where he couldn’t utilize his speed to bridge shortcomings in the way he could in center field. His Outs Above Average (-2), Ultimate Zone Rating (-4) and Defensive Runs Saved (-6) were all seriously terrible. And this would be fine if he made up for it with the bat, but, outside of a strong first month, Bae struggled to produce at the plate or on the bases. He finished with a 66 wRC+ and a -0.3fWAR while finishing 2nd in all of baseball at caught stealing. If he makes the team, it won’t be – or at least shouldn’t be – at 2nd base.
Gonzales was Ben Cherington’s first draft pick after taking over GM duties for the Pirates, selecting Nicky G 7th overall in the Covid-shortened 2020 draft. A strong .399/.502/.747 triple slash at New Mexico State made the pick look like a clear win at the time but pro ball proved more challenging for the young Buc as strikeouts piled up, especially against off-speed stuff. With the slew of youngsters called up and ample opportunities for playing time in the middle infield, Gonzales surprisingly only managed 128 total plate appearances.
And, continuing his trend from the minors, he crushed fastballs, slugging .731 against 4-seamers and .889 against cutters in this small sample but failing to do much damage against other offerings, including a .091 slugging against sliders and batting .071 against changeups. There’s a chance he can make it as the power potential is legit when he gets his pitch but there are just SO MANY pitches that he hasn’t been able to handle yet.
Peguero seems to be far and away the front-runner for the job. During the autograph session at PiratesFest this past weekend, he was seated next to his would-be double play partner in Oneil Cruz and seemed eager to step in as the top candidate for this job. While his short track record since joining the Bucs last season has been mixed (74 wRC+ but managed 7 home runs in just 59 games played), there’s reason to believe he’s in line for the position.
Having only turned 23 last month, Peguero has youth on his side and posted his best walk and strikeout rates (10.1 BB% and 17.5 K%) over 76 games at Altoona and Indianapolis. Combined with his time at Pittsburgh, he had a 20-20-20 (doubles-home runs-stolen bases) season. The power/speed combination can be a valuable asset for the young Pirates squad.
Triolo has the unfortunate position of being a “jack of all trades, master of none” situation. But, just like the full quote itself, Triolo’s value isn’t what it appears. We know his defensive acumen, earning him multiple minor league gold gloves. He also showed a surprisingly solid stretch with the bat as a remarkably strong season, spurred by a good bit of batted ball luck, as he split 2023 almost equally between Indianapolis and Pittsburgh and posted nearly identical numbers at each level.
Ultimately, his defensive versatility may provide him opportunities to play all around the diamond and potentially preclude him from manning an official position long-term.
It’s a mixed bag of potential for this group as none stands out as the clear-cut candidate heading into the season. The battle for this spot may not be decided until sometime in Spring Training – or even into the start of the season.
Shortstop
The left side of Pittsburgh’s infield is poised to be locked down for the foreseeable future, and potentially very, VERY good. And that all starts with the 6 ‘7 behemoth who, fans hope, will be starting shortstop for the Pirates for a considerable amount of games this season.
Oneil Cruz hasn’t even had a full season’s worth of plate appearances – 410 plate appearances with a .237/.328/.458 line over that time – but there is optimism that he can be. His goals heading into 2023 were lofty before an ill-advised slide cut his season short after just 9 games. But in those 9 games, Cruz showed some SERIOUS improvement on both sides of the ball.
We’re going to be talking about a small sample size but, offensively, Cruz cut his strikeout rate from 34.9% in 2022 to 20% in 2023 while raising his walk rate from 7.8% to 17.5%. It’s a small sample size, yes, but a guy that size is going to strike out a fair bit. His zone is too large not to, but when he is seeing the ball, laying off poor pitches, making better decisions at the dish, that’s the growth you want to see – even if over just 40 plate appearances.
A big knock on Cruz has been his fielding, rushing throws and launching them over his intended target at first base. Last season, he started taking a bit off his throws, settling his feet and gaining more confidence in his abilities. He also had a bigger target to hit in Carlos Santana (5 ’11 vs 5 ’10 Michael Chavis), which could improve further this season with 6 ‘4 Rowdy Tellez.
Coming off of a serious injury, there is no guarantee how he will perform on either side of the ball but the coaching staff, at least, is optimistic.
Behind Cruz, the only other potential player at short not already mentioned is Alika Williams. Acquired from the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for reliever Robert Stephenson, Williams has a fairly decent shot at getting a bench spot with the Pirates this spring. For one, he’s the only name on the 40-man who has logged significant reps at shortstop, providing 2 Defensive Runs Saved over 301.2 innings there last season. Maybe you can say Triolo can do well there, or Peguero if he doesn’t lock down a lead role but there’s a good chance the team goes an alternative route here.
Williams doesn’t blow you away with his bat, garnering a measly 43 wRC+ over 112 plate appearances with the Bucs. That said, he did post a .915 OPS over 36 games with Indianapolis last year slugging 7 home runs in those 148 plate appearances with excellent walk and strikeout rates.
Is that the real Alika Williams? Probably not. He never hit above .280 at any level before clearing .300 with Indy. Is it something to consider when you add in his plus defense at a premium position bereft of other options? Yeah, I think it’s at least something to think about for the upcoming season.
Another option – and likely quite a bit further down the line – is recent 40-man addition Tsung-Che Cheng. At just 22, he’s only played 66 games above A+ ball and the results were sub-par as he posted a .656 OPS over 281 plate appearances in Altoona last year after spending the first half RAKING in Greensboro with a .980 OPS over 254 PAs in the hitters paradise.
Being added to the 40-man ahead of the Rule 5 Draft shows the organization values him. Reports on his defense and work he’s been putting in have been glowing across the board but he’ll have to make some adjustments to continue moving forward in his professional career.
Third Base
I’ve been running the KELIEVE train for so long (see here and here) that my phone has completely abandoned autocorrecting it. The defense from young Ke’Bryan Hayes is and has been legit. In fact, he’s been statistically the best defender in all of baseball since his debut by a number of metrics:
And, while arguments can be made that he should have a cache of Gold Gloves already, he finally secured his first in 2023 after another strong defensive season but the addition of an offensive output helped make his case.
Despite once again missing time on the injured list, Hayes posted his strongest numbers at the dish since his abbreviated 2020 debut as he slashed .271/.309/.453 over 525 plate appearances with 15 home runs , 65 runs and 61 RBI – all career highs for the young star.
Though he missed essentially all of July due to recurring back problems, his numbers from 5/31 to the end of the year showed some serious results:
His .867 OPS in that span would have paced him as the top qualified third basemen if held over the full season, just ahead of noted slugger Austin Riley’s .861.
So yeah, he’s the best player defensively in all of baseball, and then posted a 72 game stretch where he was the best offensive third basemen in his league as well. All this while he is just entering his prime and is under contract through the end of the decade with an EXTREMELY team-friendly deal.
Conclusion
There’s no guarantees in baseball, especially when you rely so heavily on your youth movement to continue growing and developing at an upward trajectory. Some will succeed and some won’t. While there is hope for stability this year don’t be surprised if some names on this list who you are sure will be long-term members of this team are not even in the organization come November.
Just hope that they do a little bit better this time.
Steel City Pirates 
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