What exactly is in store for Ji-hwan Bae’s future in Pittsburgh?

1-10-24 – By Ethan Smith – @MVP_ETHAN on X

The Pittsburgh Pirates off-season has given us all a ton to discuss, even if many think the Pirates haven’t done enough.

We’ve seen additions, we’ve seen subtractions, we’ve seen promises of competitive baseball heading into 2024 from the front office, but as always, it’s important to look at what’s already here when discussing the club itself.

Ji-hwan Bae fits that bill as a player who has been given ample opportunities over the past two seasons, but as the team has continued to grow and more prospects have made their way to PNC Park, so have questions about what exactly is in store for the speedster moving forward in Pittsburgh or somewhere else.

Bae quickly became a player who opened eyes due to his electric speed on the base path that gives opposing pitchers fits, especially with the new pick-off rules, and a hit tool that could potentially make him an on-base machine.

Upon his arrival on September 23, 2022 vs Chicago, that’s exactly what he showed the coaching staff, but the small sample size over inflated his statistics. Then came 2023, a season that was very important for what kind of player Bae would be for Derek Shelton’s team.

One thing that cannot be argued when talking about Bae is that he’s been given ample opportunities so far in his short MLB career in Pittsburgh.

His 334 at-bats ranked sixth on the club last season, while he ranked sixth in games played as well. So the opportunities have been there, but what has he done with them?

Bae slashed .231/.296/.311/.607 last season with 32 RBIs and 24 stolen bases, a season that many would shrug away from immediately, but diving into his advanced metrics offers some more insight.

Due to his style of play, you wouldn’t expect Bae to rank highly offensively in any advanced Statcast metric, and that’s exactly the story when diving in.

Bae ranked below the 25th percentile, which is considered between poor and average, in xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, average exit velocity, barrel %, hard hit % and sweet spot %, which is just about every important advanced batting metric when looking at a player.

Obviously his sprint speed ranked highly along with his base running value, seeing as that’s the biggest strength to his game, but his defensive metrics are about just as an important look as his offensive ones, seeing as improvements on both sides would completely change the conversation about him.

I’ll pose a question before sharing his defensive metrics, “How much trust do you have in Bae to be an adequate defensive player in center field or second base?”.

Well, Statcast seems to think center field suits him better.

In 2023, Bae had a -1 and a -2 OAA at shortstop and second base, which from just watching the games, you could probably expect with his defensive struggles.

He did improve though from 2022 to 2023 in catch percentage added, a metric that adds or subtracts expected catch percentage from actual catch percentage, as he improved by nine points from a -6 to a plus-3.

Now, in center field, another position of question for him due to his poor arm strength, he was a plus OAA player in 2023 at plus-3. Compare that to the other outfielders on the roster, that being Bryan Reynolds, Jack Suwinski, Joshua Palacios, Connor Joe and Edward Olivares, and he ranked alongside Suwinski and one above Joe in the metric while the others were all in the negatives.

So, with the sample size we have all seen, we all have a pretty good idea of the type of player Bae could be in his MLB career, but as with many young players, he has serious areas that need improvement.

For starters, Bae will never be a plus-power hitter at the big league level, that’s just fact. With that said, you’d like to see his averages and especially his OBP improve so that his biggest strength, his base running, can be utilized more.

A big step towards that improvement would be improving his strikeout to walk ratio, which was 92 strikeouts to 30 walks in 2023, about a 3-to-1 ratio. Bringing his chase rate(28.8%), strikeout rate(24.8%) down and his walk rate(8.1%) up would go a long way as well, allowing him to get on base more via the free pass while limiting strikeouts and forcing opposing defenses to make a tough out more often than not.

Defensively, you’d like to see Bae play better at 2B, but his 69% success rate defensively at the position, compared to his 94% success rate in CF, suggests he’s better off as an outfielder, especially with the log jam of players in the middle infield.

To make him a viable player, he has to bring the OBP up, limit strikeouts, thrive on the free pass and be at least near an average defender, be it at second base or the outfield.

As of right now, the challenges are apparent for Bae making the roster. Liover Peguero and Jared Triolo have shown they are options at second base, and Michael wrote a great piece breaking all that down this morning. Nick Gonzales is a former first round pick and will likely get ample opportunities. And that is all before top position prospect Termarr Johnson arrives.

If Bae could play shortstop, none of that would matter, but the sad reality is he can’t, so you have to shift your focus to who he’d be battling against in the outfield, and it doesn’t get much easier for him.

We all know two spots in the outfield are occupied by Reynolds and Suwinski, with right field being the likely open spot. Excluding Bae, you’re looking at Palacios, Olivares, Celestino and prospects such as Matt Gorski and Canaan Smith Njigba as potential options. That’s a loaded list folks, and Bae would have to show me some improvement defensively to even consider him being more than a backup outfielder.

The reality is, Bae is a young, controllable player who could turn into a weapon, and a serious one, for this Pirates team with the improvements I have outlined, becoming an on-base machine and being at least near a league-average defensive player. If he can improve in those areas, I think there’s a place for him, but does he get the same opportunities he saw last season?

Those opportunities will be hard to come by, seeing as I mentioned eight players that Bae will likely be directly competing with. I’m not saying he won’t get them, but every opportunity he gets will have to showcase his best version of himself as a baseball player.

If the Pirates don’t see those improvements, I just find it difficult for Bae to occupy a spot on the roster and more importantly, for it to make sense.

2024 will be a huge season for him, and who knows, maybe Bae becomes the on-base machine he could be and steals 30 bases next year. Maybe he doesn’t even do it in Pittsburgh, seeing as his toolset could be valuable to another roster if he is moved, which isn’t all that unlikely if the Pirates make another move, which I think we all expect.

The decision on Bae’s future in Pittsburgh will be decided how it should be, on the field, and the Pirates are at the stage of their “rebuild” where thats how every player will be evaluated, because options aplenty, jobs aren’t as safe as they were two years ago, and thats a good thing for a team who appears to be on upward trajectory heading into 2024.