The Many What If’s of Jack Suwinski

1-14-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

Image Courtesy of Eddie Provident

If your roster is filled with young players, your expectations for the upcoming season are filled with what ifs. They just are.

It’s why fans have a hard time seeing a team leave room for someone like Roansy Contreras or Luis Ortiz. The potential is there, and so is the danger they just can’t do it again. So as a fan, it’s often easier to accept someone capable of far less spectacular, in exchange for the steady and consistency of MLB tested Veteran.

Like last year when Johan Oviedo made the team look like they were right in 2023, well, who’s to say that won’t be whomever they decide to kick the tires on this year. Eventually after all, if this thing clicks, it will be driven by kids getting better.

Jack Suwinski is one of those kids. Oh, he’s not in danger of being replaced on the roster, but he’s a young player, 25 years old and made his MLB debut in 2022 at the age of 23. Let’s walk through his journey a bit, because as it comes to Jack, you can learn a lot from what he does in reaction to being challenged.

Offseason Following 2021

Jack was a recent acquisition, largely dealt because of his recently emerged power and his pending Rule 5 Protection need. The Pirates had several choices for protection in this offseason including Cal Mitchell, Canaan Smith-Njigba, Travis Swaggerty and few considered Jack Suwinski who hadn’t played above AA, in fact, few believed they’d protect 3 outfielders.

In the end they did protect 3, Canaan, Swaggerty and of course Suwinski.

Even then, it was inconceivable to many of us they’d use him, it was just that bit of power they were afraid would catch someone’s eye….right?

In fact, they called up Cal Mitchell before any of them anyway, because Ben Cherington loves keeping us thinking.

The 2022 Season Showed Us

What we found out about Jack Suwinski in his 2022 season was pretty simple and encompassed into 372 plate appearances and 106 games.

1. Uncommon, Easy Power – You don’t hit 19 homeruns in that number of at bats in your rookie season and avoid attention.
2. Weird, Uncanny Splits – Almost no conversation could be had, that didn’t at least broach his home/away splits. Leading some to question if he could hit homeruns without the short porch of the Clemente Wall.
3. Better Defender than Scouting Reports Indicated – The Book on Jack was that he was a DH. A player without a position. He played some Center Field as a rookie, so either everyone missed something, or, he just worked at it. Either way, pleasant surprise.
4. Too Many K’s, Not Enough Walks – Typically a death Tarot card for a prospect, Jack did enough to hope they could at least make it a bit more palatable. 41/114 is just scary.

Everything about Jack was big, he’s big, his hair is big, his splits were big, but nobody could tell if this was going anywhere or if he was just going to be a rookie trivia answer in 15 years.

Offseason Following 2022

Was he a platoon player? If so, do we believe those splits? Does it matter if he strikes out that much? He’s an ok fielder but his arm, man.

Jack was a hot topic in the offseason. No matter what else he was, he was still a kid that hit almost 20 bombs in like 2/3 of a season, if that. That deserved discussion, and it had some people beside themselves because to them, all the things he wasn’t, outweighed what he was or could turn into.

The Pirates tasked Jack, a chronic charter, note taker and learner, with finding a way to develop a better eye at the plate, and strike out less in the process by not chasing as much.

I’ve heard first hand, nobody was more confused by the splits than Jack himself, it just goes to show, if you watch baseball for the rest of your life, you’ll still see something you’ve never seen before.

The 2023 Season Showed Us

He entered with all those questions, answered a few, created a few more too.

For starters, the Pirates force fed, and sometimes painfully so, 534 plate appearances. I’ll touch on why it was painful below, but most of you are already barking it at the screen.

1. Uncommon, Easy Power – Oh my yes, 26 more homeruns in a season he probably wouldn’t consider a roaring success, yup, the power is real, and MLB pitchers were unable to avoid it, even after it was scouted because Jack expanded his “win” zone.
2. Weird, Uncanny Splits – Gone for the most part. All the whacky home and away stuff chilled out, the Left-Right splits improved, but not to beyond concern. The main concern with his L/R splits is the OPS drop, versus Righties .856, against Lefties .608. He can have less success against lefties, that’s ok, even expected a bit, but a drop off like that screams need for improvement or avoidance.
3. Better Defender than Scouting Reports Indicated – Yeah, still true, even after the Pirates kinda shocked all of us naming him the Center Fielder. Rocky start out there on paths to balls, jumps, but he improved what he could as the season played out. The arm is the arm, it’s never going to be stellar, but his positioning improving could make it less of an issue, so there is room for improvement yet.
4. Too Many K’s, Not Enough Walks – Maybe too much better if that makes sense. 172 Strike Outs, 75 Walks, that’s still more K’s than you’d like and many of them were in an effort to improve his walk totals. This “good” thing that admittedly helped him create a season OPS of .793, also had him looking at pitches for called strikes repeatedly. It created walks, but it created K’s too, so many that it was hard to notice his Chase Rate had become elite, again, too elite, again, if that makes sense.

This Offseason

Here’s where we are with Jacks answered questions, and others he needs to answer yet.

1. The power is real and he is beyond a shadow of doubt an MLB player
2. The Chase Rate shows restraint and a willingness to stick to his plan, toward the end of the season he started realizing he’d do nothing but K or BB if he didn’t start swinging at some pitches on the outer third. It comes at the expense of some power, unless he’s ready for the Pitcher coming in to keep him from diving out. If he’s pitched out and up and this season chooses to swing instead of watch it go by for a call, look out Left Field Loonies.
3. He’s a good enough defender to play out there, I’d prefer him as a Left Fielder all things being equal, but we’re ok there, so for now, it is what it is, and I don think he has a bit of room to improve.
4. How do the Splits evolve? Make no mistake, that will get answered this year. He’ll tell us in 2024 if he is going to be an every day player or they’re going to have to find a right handed counterpart for where ever he plays.

Big year for Jack. He enters Arbitration in 2026, so he has two more years before he costs much money. The Pirates know this too, and they’d be wise to recognize right now, if he hits another 25-30 bombs this year or more, that Arb figure is gonna start getting really interesting.

Suwinski is a sneaky good extension candidate. Seeing what he does in 2024 knowing you still have 2025 on his entry status, you can probably wait, but if you want to place a bet and maybe get this done as a bargain, toss him 7 or 8 years right now, buy out his 2 years pre-arb, 3 or 4 years of arb if he indeed becomes Super 2 and a couple more. It’s a risk, just like Polanco was, and it could turn out just as bad, or WAY better, but if he turns into the 40 bomb basher some see behind the rough edges, he’d be worth the risk.

We’ve seen exciting things like this before. Josh Bell had even more power, was a switch hitter who for stretches looked like the best hitter in baseball. Nate McLouth lit up the league one year. It’s no guarantee, never is.

You can’t have a young team without questions, hopes and dreams of projectability, and Jack is no different. The longer he’s here though, the close to get to being able to put him primarily in the “known” bucket. Here’s hoping when he gets there we can call it “known stud” cause it would be a huge difference maker for this club’s chances.