Do the Pittsburgh Pirates Have a Potential Power Surge in 2024

01/22/24 Ethan Smith – @mvp_EtHaN; Follow the site @Steel_Pirates
Photo courtesy of Eddie Provident

There is no doubt the home run ball has become more and more important in baseball over its storied history.

In 1992, the last time the Pirates had a winning season before 2013, all of baseball hit 3,038 homers. In 2013, the number spiked to 4,661, and since 2013, there have been well over 4,000 home runs hit by all of baseball every season since, excluding 2020 of course.

Now that I got that out of the way to tell you something absolutely obvious, why does this pertain to the Pittsburgh Pirates and the title of this article?

It doesn’t take rocket science if you’ve watched the Pirates over the past three seasons to know they haven’t been a plus-power or home run team, but you can also say in the same light that they’ve improved over the past three years in that department as well.

Since 2021, the Pirates have ranked 30th, 18th and 28th in home runs in all of baseball, going over 150 as a club in the past two seasons. They ranked 30th, 27th and 24th in slugging in those three seasons as well, so there has been improvement there as far as slugging is concerned.

So, after hearing that the Pirates have ranked in the bottom third of the league in slugging and two of the past three seasons in home runs, you may be asking, “Ethan, why should we expect to see a power surge from this team in 2024?”

For starters, the Pirates have some players, young and veterans, with plus-power. Bryan Reynolds has eclipsed 20-plus home runs in each of the past three seasons, the only player to do so on the team. Jack Suwinski joined the 20-plus home run club last year, leading the team with 26, while 2023 saw a repeat of three players hitting 15-plus.

Suwinski, Reynolds and Ke’Bryan Hayes all hit 15-plus last season, while in 2022, Oneil Cruz hit 17, and that wasn’t even in a full season. Mentioning Cruz is crucial here because of his absence last year, meaning the homer totals should return for him.

The Pirates do have players you could argue are candidates to hit 20-plus this season. Reynolds and Suwinski have shown they can do so, and I expect them to do so as long as they stay healthy. Cruz hit 17 in 2022 with only 86 games under his belt during that season, so simple math says if he can be on that home run pace again with a full season, he’d eclipse 20-plus easily.

Then there is the acquisition of Rowdy Tellez, who saw a decline from his play in 2022 to 2023, but he’s still a player who has hit double digit homers in four of his eight seasons. In the four seasons he didn’t do so, he didn’t play more than 56 games in any of those seasons, while in the four seasons he did, he didn’t play less than 105.

Now Tellez returning to his 2022 form where he hit 35 long balls is a question mark for sure, but even a fraction of that play returning, especially in a left-handed hitting friendly ballpark like PNC Park, would likely result in 20-plus home runs.

You can even argue Ke’Bryan Hayes, who hit a career high 15 homers in 2023, could get to the 20 mark if he hits like he did in the final two months last year over the course of a full season, or even half a season.

After Reynolds, Suwinski, Cruz, Tellez and Hayes, it becomes a little more complicated to find power, or at least power we’ve seen, in the lineup. Henry Davis has a powerful bat, we saw glimpses with his seven homers in 225 at-bats along with his 41.4 hard hit percentage, but seeing it more consistently is something we’ll be watching for in 2024.

Then there’s others like off-season acquisition Edward Olivares, who hit 12 homers last season while ranking in the 70th percentile in expected slugging, showing plus power in Kansas City that is likely to improve as his home run total has increased in each of his three seasons.

Then you have a big group of players who could show plus power with improvements, like Liover Peguero, Nick Gonzales and Joshua Palacios just to name a few, with that trio hitting 19 combined home runs last season.

So, again, there are plenty of players on this roster that are capable of being plus players when it comes to power and home run totals, but its also something we have to see first and not speculate.

We can make a pretty good, educated guess that Reynolds, Suwinski and Cruz all likely surpass 20 home runs. Tellez can for sure do it as well because he has before. Hayes, Peguero, Palacios, Davis and others can improve their power element of their game and be on the fringe of that number.

This is also a roster on paper that appears to show more power than we have seen in quite some time as a whole, with Baseball Reference projecting the Pirates to have three 20-plus home run hitters in Reynolds, Suwinski and Tellez, while having eight other players going into double digit home runs.

After using a calculator, Baseball Reference projects 19 players will hit a combined 207 home runs in 2024 for the Pirates, a number that projects the Pirates to hit well over their highest home run total ever of 171 in 1999. 207 home runs would have ranked 13th in baseball last season, projecting a clear improvement on the long ball going into 2024.

The Pirates for sure can improve power wise in 2024 with the puzzle pieces they currently have in place, especially if some of the young players tap into their potential in that department.

Baseball has been about the long ball for quite awhile now, and if the Pirates can take the next step into becoming a plus-power team, the wins should follow.