Compete for the Division in 2024? Maybe, but I Don’t Think I’ll be Predicting it.

2-4-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

We all know the team claims they’ll get more pitching. I’m not even calling them liars, or assuming they’ll fail to get one, but I started thinking, even if they do, could I really believe they’d compete for a division?

I guess, I’ve been waiting for them to complete the picture before thinking ahead. You know, kinda want to see what they feel is division winner worthy before I decide to agree or disagree.

But, then I thought a little longer, I even threw in a crazy thought. This team could sign Blake Snell and I still might not get there.

Doesn’t mean they can’t do it, just means I have a hard time looking at all the what if and choosing to make 75% of them positive outcomes. That sort of stuff happens all the time, like for instance, Arizona knew they had a really good looking young ball player in Corbin Carroll but putting together a 25 homerun, 5.4 WAR rookie season had to be on the extreme high end of the typical Danger Noodle fan I’d expect.

See, I can reasonably expect Bryan Reynolds to hit .270, launch 25 homeruns, 25-30 doubles, I mean, we’ve seen him do it, more than once. Sure, he could fall off a cliff for a season too, the baseball Gods step in every once in a while and deliver a misnomer, but for the most part, when a guy shows he’s a regular performer, he tends to stay within a pretty tight range.

Ke’Bryan Hayes will play incredible defense, but this would mark his first completely healthy year if he has one. As usual, we’re looking at a relatively small portion of his offensive output that really looked incredible and knowing it’s in there has given some of us hope he could achieve it on a more regular basis. I’ll take whatever he gives with that glove, but can I count on it?

Oneil Cruz is a mystery. Can he hold down SS? Can he handle lefties and cut down on the K’s, maybe even pick up some more walks. Will he be tentative on the bases now? I think there’s enough talent there to provide quite a bit offensively, but that’s as far as I can go, I think.

Can Henry catch? Can he hit? Sure hope so, sure has the MO of someone who’s bat will come to play, but I don’t know how anyone could say they know.

Now, this probably reads as pretty negative, I know, it probably is.

To me you have to see both sides of what ifs and its part of why when you put a team together with a goal like winning a division, you tend to not want to go into the effort with a team half full of them.

Its why getting a starter, even a 4th or 5th level starter is important. Even if you think Marco Gonzales and Martin Perez aren’t good enough, they have baselines. They both have what ifs, but if health isn’t one, they’re going to deliver within a pretty tight range something expected.

Think about the Cardinals for a minute. Puke if you have to, but come back to it when you’re able.

The Cardinals were putrid last year. They signed 2 old starters with recent poor histories and a long track record of being serviceable plus Sonny Gray.

Aside from that, they’re expecting big rebounds from Paul Goldschmidt , Contreras and Nolan Arenado. A big step from Jordan Walker and other young players too.

It’s hard to predict them to wind up bottom feeders of the division again, at least for me. There’s too much track record, and fewer what ifs for me to believe everything that could go bad will again.

I guess what I’m getting at is, I don’t think they could make a move or series of moves that would take me all the way to where they claim to aim.

I’ve been waiting for something that isn’t coming. Security in my hopes and aspirations for this team. There’s just too much youth, too many what ifs to have that kind of sleep well at night feeling about where this team goes.

Doesn’t mean I have no hope, or am sitting here assuming the basement either. I’m just saying there’s no way to avoid needing to play youngsters, if this thing is to succeed in the long run, it’s going to come from kids becoming the veterans. Just like Bryan Reynolds and Ke’Bryan Hayes are now. Just like Jack Suwinski has a chance to become this year.

To pull this off, they need players like Luis Ortiz to have a chance to play and succeed as an MLB pitcher. And if he fails they need a Quinn Priester to get his shot. Henry Davis needs to learn, and I honestly have no other even conceptual way to justify locking his bat in AAA where he’ll learn nothing, just to help him learn to catch. It would literally bump his development back a year, and he has MLB lessons to learn at the plate.

I can make that observation about what these kids need to do, and acknowledge the team would have a better shot at the division if they didn’t deal with them.

This year, I’ll still make a prediction as Spring wraps, but I don’t see this team moving the needle much before then. It’ll be based on a lot of mental coin flips, because honestly, that’s what on boarding kids is.

Cincinnati will deal with it too this year. They have even more youth, and a whole bunch of it just debuted last year. What they did last year, well, it was nothing short of impressive, especially for all those rookies. They brought in a few vets wisely, but make no mistake, they have a ton of what ifs. You can’t have that many kids and know which side of the wall the baseball gods will push them.

If 75% of them trend upward, they’ll look like Baltimore in a year or two. If they go the opposite direction, you’ll probably see them try to bolt on patches to prop up what they have gotten to take that next all too hard to pull off step.

On paper, I probably like where Cincy is better. But most of their system is already here. In other words, they really have this year and maybe next to see where those kids will take them.

This division doesn’t have a front runner as we speak, but I’d put my mythological money on the more veteran teams, but every once in a while, the talent ceiling wins out over the veteran baseline.

Could that be the Pirates? Sure. I just don’t see myself predicting it before the season starts regardless of what else they have in store for us in the acquisition department.