The Pirates Next Extension Candidates

2-23-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

We wondered if this team would extend anyone when this process began, and a little over a year in, we found out, yes, they will. Well, Hayes anyway we thought, and what an affordable deal, surely that was the only reason a deal happened, the player took a very team friendly deal.

The next year, same old same old, another player who wants out, Reynolds had enough! Until he didn’t, and they managed to get his deal done the second year in a row eclipsing their high water mark for contracts.

And today as of 3:00 PM, they’ve officially signed another in Mitch Keller.

What they’ve shown us is they are actively trying to lock up members of the core, so it stands to reason, we should probably take some time to try and identify the candidates and talk a little bit about why each does and doesn’t make sense.

Let’s also take just a moment to talk about something else I’ve been seeing from the fans who must always ensure you see the negative. Meaning the people who show up to a baby shower wanting to plan the kid’s funeral types metaphorically speaking of course.

Every extension they do, yes, very likely could end in a trade. In other words, you aren’t shaking my confidence that this is an important part of building a team, and the primary reason is it’s essential to getting the talent to line up. So much goes into those decisions when the time comes. How do the young players come 2028 look, in other words, can you move the contracted player on merit? How does the team look. Might they extend again? How have they performed? Point being, yelling at fans they’ll trade them, well, you’re gonna be right sometimes, congrats, but it isn’t important to right now, or the next few seasons really.

Now, let’s have some fun. And I’ll just do 5, that’s enough, and if you have more, happy to hear your pitch. Also, don’t get hung up on will they, would they, they won’t, they can’t, let’s just talk through it and make a case.

1. Paul Skenes

For Extension – If this franchise truly believes Paul Skenes will debut in 2024, I think it’s a brilliant idea. Let’s do some math, I know, gross, but let’s do it anyway. In any young player’s first three years they’ll make league minimum unless they sign a contract that pays them more. League minimum will raise by 20K year over year for the next two leading into the new CBA. For Paul that would mean if he started right out of Spring (set aside your opinion on this for the moment) $2.26 Million. He obviously has the bonus he signed for too so he won’t go hungry. Then arb starts and that’s where this gets tricky, cause you have to start guessing. the only player who comes close to Skenes in recent history is probably Gerrit Cole but it’s been a while, and inflation is real. In arbitration he made a cool $24 Million. Now, Gerrit didn’t fly out the gate so let’s say that was probably low anyway so lets give Paul a very optimistic for him 32 million. To me, that number right there is why this is possible. You take those 6 affordable years and try to buy 2 or 3 years where yes he could easily make another 20-25-dare I say 30 mil per on the open market. Approach him with 9 years 75 million, pay a little more now so you keep him longer and keep his pay reasonable later in turn. Even if I’m off a few mil here, it’s not a whole lot on either side. Now, let him prove it for a year, everything I just wrote is erased. Those extra years are what get more and more expensive.

Against Extension – I mean, we’ve seen like 10 minutes of this guy. He looks like he has crazy good stuff, but let’s not pretend 75 million even if it’s spread out wouldn’t be a risk. What if he has a career path like Taillon? What if that electric stuff for whatever reason just doesn’t fool MLB hitters often enough? Tough to 100% say this is anything more than a bet with nice odds to pay out.

2. David Bednar

For Extension – David just got 4.5 million in his first year of arbitration, he has 2 more and then he’s a free agent. If he continues to perform the way he has he’ll get significant raises in each of his next two. I’d guess as much as 20 million over the course of 2025 and 2026. Buying extra years, well, it depends on how much you think they’ll be worth. He’ll be 32 in 2027 probably time to stop thinking better is in front of him, at best you hope he holds where he is at that point on right. These would be a couple expensive years. I think he’d probably accept a home town discount, but it can’t be an insult, he will still be a very good reliever most likely, even if not a closer. have to imagine 10 mil AAV is the starting point there, and since that’s where we are over the next two anyway, if you want him I say you start with 4 years 40 million and see if he’ll bite. I mean, you kinda can’t give that to Chapman and then tell David you can’t afford it.

Against Extension – It’s really his age. Closers just don’t tend to have long careers as closers. For a guy like David losing even a tick off his upstairs heater could turn him mortal, still a good pitcher, but man. I also can’t get past how many live arms are coming and already here. A lot of them won’t make the rotation, but they’ll still have that crazy good stuff. As a rule, not a fan of paying bullpen arms big money, but I admit, the yinzer in me hates making this argument. I just can’t get past thinking this wouldn’t be where I’d concentrate big dollars with the self imposed restrictions this team has.

3. Oneil Cruz

For Extension – He’ll make the league minimum for the two years and then arbitration starts. I won’t bore you with all the math again, just use the formula and know I did too when I offer the contract. This deal is all about risk. A kid who just saw how easily he can lose it all and a team full of hope for the kid, but some serious questions about his ceiling and how fast he can get there. Still, the only reason the Pirates could approach a deal here is if they don’t give him a shot to prove it, if he does his price tag will jump. If I were to take a swing now, I just have to factor in that risk, I mean, I don’t even know if he’ll be a short stop right? We know he’ll play there this year, but, do we stick with it? Ok, here goes, 7 years 60-70 and no, I don’t think he’d take it, that’s just as comfortable as I can get.

Against Extension – Again, it’s the risk. As much as I think he could be a monster, man, we just haven’t gotten so see much of it. And even as I type it I think wake up dummy if he hits 35 homeruns he’ll cost double your silly number! This might be the biggest gut feel of all these moves.

4. Henry Davis

For Extension – A couple things separate Henry from Cruz. One, Davis has not done nearly what Oneil has in the league, and he hasn’t exactly locked down a defensive position either. But if we’re handing out risk balloons while we play Atlanta Braves, he has to be a candidate if only because should he play near his ceiling, he’ll get expensive quick. I think you could go 8-55 or 60 as an approach. I don’t think he’d do it, but…

Against Extension – I think Henry needs to show something before we start handing out extensions to everyone, but the potential is high enough that it merits consideration. It’s important to note, while we all hate the CBA process, the onboarding contract process that so many teams are jumping over trying to keep extensions more affordable is in place because it gives a team some time to make decisions and give yourself a shot to do it in a more educated fashion so hopefully you aren’t dead wrong very often.

5. Jack Suwinski

For Extension – Jack has been a polarizing player for this fan base, and I get it. He hits a ton of homeruns and puts up a good number in the OPS department, which has become very important to some while others clutch tightly to batting average or bust. I’m not going to fight that battle, if you don’t think Jack is good, ok, we aren’t always going to agree. Power is the only thing that costs close to what pitching does. It’s why we discuss such unproven commodities as Davis and Cruz, and Jack has more evidence laid. Not all of it good. Just a general trend of improving in areas, tremendous, easy and raw power, a great eye and likes using it a bit too much instead of the bat. He hasn’t earned big bucks yet, but he has earned attention, and a 30 homerun season will certainly earn him more of that, and more money too. I’d go in right now and see if Jack might with 2 years yet before hitting arbitration take, 7 years 55 or 60. A steal if he does nothing other than play an outfield spot and hit 25-30 homeruns. Brilliant if he stays in Center and hits 35-40. Who knows? Do you roll the dice?

Against Extension – We don’t know yet if Jack can be an everyday player, and if he can’t, all those dreamy homerun totals don’t rise quite as high. Not to mention, man, you hate to extend a guy you’re going to always have to pay another guy to play with him. He’d have to improve in center to consider this and I’d have to see him do something with left handed pitchers, he can’t play everyday if he’s an automatic out, in fact if all he does against them is walk, I’m sorry, I’m paying for damage, not OBP for a guy like Jack. Too early here for me.