Five Pirates Thoughts at Five – Some Things are Taking Shape

3-4-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

It’s been a fun Grapefruit League schedule so far, when the Pirates regulars leave games it’s been impressive watching their prospects beat up on the other team’s replacements. Even the travel games with only a starter or two have a decent amount of talent on display. So that’s been a little different and I’ve really enjoyed it. Wish more of it were on TV, but I digress.

Next Monday when I write this feature I’ll be getting ready to take off for Bradenton with my wife for a few days in the sun with the boys. We’ll actually be rooming with our friend Craig Toth who you all know well. I’m most looking forward to the first ever MLB Spring Breakout between the Orioles and Pirates. Prospect All Star teams squaring off as part of a double header and man it’s just going to be such a great day of baseball.

I do want this to feel like a vacation for my wife so, maybe don’t expect me to chronicle minute by minute what I’m doing, but I’ll check in on video here and there and I’m sure I’ll have a ton of material to work with and hammer out pieces from as soon as I get back.

Haven’t been down for Spring Training since 2018, with my work schedule it’s just a tough time to get away for me, but I’m so happy we were able to make it work this year.

Yes, my Irish ass will remember sunscreen.

Let’s go!

1. Injury Concerns and Reassignments

It wouldn’t be Spring Training if we weren’t panicking about guys who haven’t made an appearance or guys who have some new issue cropping up. Some are serious, some are more precautionary I’m sure, either way we only get to know what they want us to know this time of year. Or anytime really for that matter, I guess the difference in Spring is the absence could just as easily be completely planned, so you don’t really even know to ask until it’s been a week or two.

Here’s what we know right now.

Andrew McCutchen – The team says we should anticipate seeing him this week at some point. Sounds to me more about the tail end of a rehab plan than a new issue.

Joshua Palacios – Has a lower leg issue that cropped up early in Spring, he too we should anticipate seeing this week according to the team.

Dauri Moreta – It’s too early for anyone to guess, but an elbow concern is rarely good news. This just happened yesterday and I’d anticipate it’s going to take some time to provide us with news.

David Bednar – Lat concern, which could easily be considered his back. I’m not a doctor, but I also think this is likely something David has dealt with before. I have no incentive here to try to guess, I’m sure if it’s a big concern we’ll hear about it soon. I’d also say being a reliever, he won’t require the type of ramp up a starter would to get season ready, so, we’re a little bit away from panicking in my mind, and, if I may be so bold, they’re deep enough in this area to be very careful. Maybe it even helps him stay fresh later into the season.

Andres Alvarez, Anthony Solometo, Thomas Harrington and Bubba Chandler have been reassigned to minor league camp.

Jackson Wolf optioned to Double-A Altoona.

— Danny Demilio (@Demilio22) March 4, 2024

2. Some Concerning Observations

I think it’s important to force yourself to see through the optimism of Spring Training and the best way to do that is to sit down and focus on things you are concerned about. It’s easy to get caught up in all the perpetually force fed feel good, and in that, miss a less happy story starting to take shape. Conspicuously, I’m doing this now, because once I’m around the team down there, I know I’ll struggle with this more.

Jack Suwinski – Yeah, he just got the monkey off his back with a dinger today, but what concerns me is I’m still seeing a lot of signs that his approach hasn’t changed much. To me, for Jack to take a step, I think he needs to try to touch some balls on the outside corner, if not a little off. He needs that to drive in more runs, and to force pitchers to come back into his swing plane.

The Rotation – Luis Ortiz and Roansy Contreras, coupled with Quinn Priester have all performed well enough that it makes me feel the Pirates might just let it ride on what they got for the rotation. That’s it, that’s the concern. I still think bringing in another starter would have this team in a very solid position to start the season even if I can’t tell you these guys wouldn’t be enough. It’s a concern, not a prophesy.

Nick Gonzales – I don’t see a path forward for him this year, not without some injuries. Still has the swing and miss issue. I had hoped someone would have gotten with him to focus more on his bat speed ability. Help him use it to give himself just a bit more time to make a decision to swing. That old school shoot it right back where it came mentality. I think Nick could be an effective player if he changed the type of hitter he’s trying to be but my perception of his ceiling has for sure lowered. Truly, he’s not even playing defense the way I’ve seen him.

3. Spot Winners?

I sure think so. Let’s talk about who has jumped out and put their stamp on early Spring in a position battle.

Jared Triolo (Second Base) – Jared has separated himself from the other competitors for this gig, and ultimately, I don’t even think he’ll be the everyday guy there. Triolo has changed his stance and he’s stroking the baseball all over the park, and out of it for good measure. For this year, I think they’ll bounce him around, but if he hits like this all year, they’ll find him a home, that’s just how it works in this league, sometimes your bat finds you a permanent home. Lord knows he’s given them plenty of options. In case you can’t tell, I believe Triolo will assuredly be on the opening day roster.

Henry Davis (Catcher) – It’s undeniable. Henry has been one their best hitters, let alone best hitting catcher and behind the dish, listen, he’s fine. Honestly, I think he looks like a more comfortable target than Grandal, not as good as Delay, haven’t seen enough of Sanchez. He’s blocking, throwing, communicating, I see zero chance this guy isn’t on the opening day roster and the starting catcher. I’ve seen more than a few flat out report the team intends to send him down, but I don’t see it, any more than I see any of them admitting they were wrong, they’ll simply reframe it as the team changing their mind and Davis making it happen, that way the team can still be wrong, even as they’re right. I can’t see any conceivable benefit to the Pirates either. They’d save no money, whatever miniscule thing they might want him to work on won’t make him ineffective at the MLB level by way of learning on the job. There’s just nothing and you know I love taking the counterpoint just to cover my bases, in this case though, I just don’t see it. If anything, to save face I could argue they have incentive to ignore deficiencies and play him anyway. Whatever though, everyone can guess, this is what I’m going with.

It’s super early, I won’t go farther than this for the time being but I think injury or something freakish in general are all that could prevent both of these guys from winning a spot.

4. Martín Pérez Makes His Spring Debut

And my goodness, it was a good one. 3 solid innings and he looked sharp, even throwing his cutter and changeup effectively. Key because these are two pitches that simply weren’t good for him last year in Texas. His outing was so efficient he went directly from the bullpen to throw the additional pitches he had left over after reaching his desired 3 innings of work.

First off, that’s completely his call. He had fulfilled his 3 innings and everyone involved would have been fine if he just sat down with Hannah Mears and walked off to sign a few autographs and rest up. He’s not here for that though, Pérez wants to find what he lost and lead this young staff forward, so of course he worked more, specifically on those two pitches.

Martín also spoke to the importance of the franchise to Latin players and why playing here always was something he had interest in. This sentiment is spoken widely, I say that because guys not wanting to play here is really more accurately about guys wanting paid more than this team will offer. The Pirates have an advantage with many of these players as an evergreen gift left behind by the late great Roberto Clemente.

Putting together a talented roster helps, paying would woo even more, but this team isn’t doomed to be locked out before trying, Roberto himself ensures that.

5. Opening the Throttle on Skenes

He’s gone 2 outings this Spring, and today was the first time they let him really stretch his legs a bit, at least one up and down this time. He gave up a dinger in this one to Eddie Rosario but for the most part, looked strong. I imagine this will be his last outing in MLB camp. I we see him again it’ll be after he’s been assigned to MiLB camp.

This will be a bit of a delicate dance. My buddy Jim Maruca made me think about this with a question he asked for this weekend’s Q&A.

The Pirates are going to have to work this for a lot of players this year. If you see a bunch of these prospects as second half of the year cavalry, I’d caution you, I can count on one hand the guys who I’d expect 150 innings from this year.

Meaning, by August and September, most of these prospects will be at or near their preseason innings limit. Just last year the Pirates faced this with Johan Oviedo, the year before, Roansy Contreras.

When push comes to shove, they’ll let them, well, shove, but there is a limit, and more than that, we often discount what the rigors of pushing one’s self for innings does to the pitcher’s effectiveness, velocity, spin rate or overall health.

In other words, to believe a guy like Jared Jones will help reinforce the rotation this year “down the stretch” as I often hear it referred to, well, you have to assume he’s jumping from his career high of 126.1 innings set last year, to something more like 165 or 175. I’m not putting limits on him, I’m just pointing out, for that kid and his arm to remain as lively as you’ve seen this Spring come August or September, they’d have to slow walk him in AAA. Logic would tell you to pull him after 5, keep him fresh for the end of the season right? Well, ok, but don’t you need him to start showing he can get guys out 3 times through? Don’t you need to see him up and down 6 or 7 times during a game?

That stuff matters, and it may cost him innings to do, in fact, I can’t see any way it doesn’t. Many coaches will say things that would lead you to believe MiLB innings aren’t the same as MLB innings, and that’s true, the competition is clearly different and MLB hitters are expert long count builders, especially against a rookie. I’m sure the stress is different too, but at the end of the day, innings are innings and you have to count them wherever they come from.

Ortiz last year between AAA and MLB racked up nearly 150 innings and he stretched it further in winter ball. It may not inspire confidence in you because he hasn’t been terrific, but Ortiz is a guy you should expect has more left in the tank, or more accurately, wouldn’t be reaching so far above his previous high water mark that you can reasonably expect he could be asked to give you 175 if not more.

I’m not saying this to make it seem Paul Skenes is going to get shut down, I’m just trying to illustrate, the cavalry, might very well have run so hard getting there they’re too tired to fight once they do. For all I know, their plan with Paul is to have him hit 200 this year if they can, that just doesn’t jive with a team that’s been so careful with him so much as asking him to sit down for 10 minutes and pitch again has them chewing nails like Double Bubble.