3-12-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X
We’ve seen some extreme highs and lows (mostly lows) for the Pirates over the years but, in Spring Training, anything is possible. The team currently LEADS all of MLB in home runs (31) after finishing 28th over the 2023 season (159). The old cliches and platitudes are present, as always. This guy is in the “best shape of his life.” That guy “added weight and looks stronger” or “worked with ABC Pitching Wizard School” and it’s hard to say what to believe. Last year, Canaan Smith-Njigba tore it up in Spring Training only to fall short in the regular season over an admittedly small sample size there as well. In 2022, Diego Castillo earned a 26-man spot out of the spring only to provide a wRC+ of 72 and -0.2 fWAR in the regular season. In 2021, Kevin Newman batted .606 with a 1.429 OPS in 38 plate appearances only to regress back to the same old Newman we had come to know and accept.
Could some of these mirages been predicted? Probably. Given large enough sample size, numbers regress to the norm. Spring Training is a time when pitchers are working on specific things like timing, arm slot, new grip, new pitches and not getting hung up on results from the hitting side. So for the same reason that these highly inflated offensive performances shouldn’t be taken at face value, the same can be said about the pitching woes when Mitch Keller has a 6.75 ERA or Marco Gonzales has a WHIP of 2.80.
So what can we takeaway from Spring Training? Well, it’s mostly looking at some more intangible and underlying metrics specific to that player. Take, for example, Oneil Cruz.
The dude is hitting MAMMOTH shots and that’s great because he spent most of the past year rehabbing from his ankle injury. It shows that he still has his swing to catch up to mid-90s heaters but he’s also staying back on off-speed pitches and timing up breaking ones, which is something he struggled with in 2022 (batting .164 v. breaking/.222 v. off-speed) and, in a shorter sample size, in 2023, posting an expected batting average of .185 v. breaking pitches and .056 when facing off-speed.
If he can bridge the gap between how he fares against secondary pitches closer to how he does against fastballs (.280 career batting average), that can get him closer to that illustrious ceiling; however, the bigger thing we were looking for with Cruz heading into this spring was how his previously fractured right ankle would handle the rigors of day-to-day baseball activities again. He’s shown the ability to plant the foot and hit for power and, from what we are able to see in games and hear out of camp, he isn’t experiencing any pain or mobility issues when moving in the field or around the bases and that’s one of the key things you’re looking for in players this spring: Improvement on being healthy and showing capability playing where you expect them to play.
To that point, Henry Davis came into camp with a chip on his shoulder. Not only did he struggle offensively after his debut last year, posting a measly .213 batting average and underwhelming .653 OPS, but his appearances as catcher were limited to 2 innings due to concerns about a lingering hand injury and some defensive struggles Davis has exhibited. All concerns about his ability to hit or field have been mostly alleviated this spring. As of this writing, Davis has a .292 batting average in 24 at-bats with 4 home runs and a 1.125 OPS. Additionally, his presence behind the plate has gone essentially unnoticed – which is a good thing! When you have a poor catcher behind the dish, you know his name. Think Rod Barajas trying and failing to throw out baserunners or Elias Diaz being the WORST defensive catcher in all of MLB in 2019, per FanGraphs. He has been getting wide-spread praise from the pitching staff on his receiving skills out of camp, which is HUGE to his development behind the dish and being comfortable handling what could soon be one of the youngest rotations in MLB.
One last bat to be excited about: Ke’Bryan Hayes. Fresh off his well-deserved Gold Glove Award, Ke is looking to keep the offensive production from end of 2023 rolling. From August 8th on, Hayes posted a .317/.356/.577 triple slash with 10 home runs over 202 plate appearances – a 30+ HR pace over a full season and something that would assuredly lead to MVP discussion given his high defensive floor. The issues for Ke in the past have been related to exit velocity – which has been hampered at times by wrist and back issues – and launch angle but both have been strong this spring as he has an average launch angle of 13.2 and an average exit velocity of 92.2, which ranks in the top 10 for all batters this spring.
Pivoting to the pitching side, we’re dealing with smaller sample sizes as pitchers ramp up, tweak their arsenal and build up their endurance. Roansy Contreras came into this spring needing to rebound from a rough sophomore season in 2023. Velocity was down. Spin rate was down. He wasn’t looking dominant or confident on the mound. This spring, he’s shown more of who he was than who he’s been. His fastball has reached 96MPH and his slider has shown some wicked movement. He’s not yet looking like the ace pitcher that was once promised, only holding a single strikeout so far this spring over 6.2 innings but he is, at the very least, looking improved and capable as a pitcher in the major leagues.
Martin Perez was the major free agent signing to shore up the rotation this past offseason. Only a year removed from a 2.89 ERA in his All Star 2022 season, Perez struggled with the eventual World Series Champion Texas Rangers last year, being relegated to the bullpen with some trade deadline acquisitions. He finished 2023 with a 4.45 ERA and 1.405 WHIP over 141.2 innings pitched. He has only made 2 appearances thus far this spring, compiling a total of 7 innings in that time, but he’s looking like a solid rotation arm. In his most recent start on March 8, he threw 55 pitches over 4 innings with 1 hit, a hit by pitch, 2 walks and 2 strikeouts. He relied mostly on 3 pitches – cutter, sinker and changeup – with a 29% CSW (called and swing strikes) rate and generating poor average exit velocity (82.7 MPH) rates when making contact. His success on the bump, at least for the first few months of the season, will be critical in determining the team’s success in that span.
Any given game can have positive or negative takeaways for any given player. Spring training amplifies that small sample size over a few weeks after players are building up from a lengthy layoff that they won’t experience during the regular season. Pundits (myself included) pontificate about stats they value and it won’t encompass the full picture. If you want to make decisions on whether a player is doing well, looking good and potentially will be poised for a solid season ahead, watch the game and decide for yourself. Either way, we are halfway through this spring training and only 16 days away from traveling to Miami to open the season on March 28th. Try to enjoy the ride.
Steel City Pirates 