Is This Start Real? Or is it a Mirage? Let’s See What Yinz Had to Say

4-2-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

I had this idea for a piece about that headline there. I was going to list off some reasons for each and try to make some sense of them, completely ignoring that we’re far too early in the season to pretend any of my findings concrete.

So I decided instead to have some of you do the heavy lifting for me. You know, give me your sales pitch. Is this real or just a mirage?

As expected, some of you couldn’t help but talk to both sides, just like I would have by the way. Some just couldn’t get past it being too early, and that’s a shame because I really think its ok to have some innocent fun on an off day after a fairly historic start for our club.

Anyway, let’s dig in, I’ll show you the comments and then I’ll react in some way, shape or form.

It’s Real

Underrated thing for the Pirates (besides strong offense, bullpen and starting pitching) is their confidence and belief they can win. You can see their pure joy on their faces during the games and hearing players comments after the games, they seem to be on a mission to win and are tired of losing. I hope that helps your piece or if u have more thoughts or etc, let me know – Billy Tissue

I tend to be a little less, shall I say, religious about it but I can buy that the Bucs having a good time is infectious. It always starts with talent though, much easier to have fun when you know you aren’t winning with smoke and mirrors.

It’s Real

In addition to the roster depth and variety of weapons Shelton has to call on, the confidence the players and coaches exude is the real difference. They expect to win. This core has been together for a seasons. Getting production from Joe and Alika really lengthens this line-up. – KG_55VFTG

Man, first it’s great to have Graves back around Pirates X again! Yeah, yeah I can dig it, it’s a lot of what Billy said up there with the talent and depth additions and our first Shelton mention, a guy who finally has enough toys to truly be judged. Really love the point about the core being together for minute now, probably important to note some of them know they’ll be together for a lot longer too with the extensions.

A Mirage

They cannot continue to win this way. Relievers are volatile, they won’t be able to perform at this level for a full season. If the starting pitching continues to only give 4/5 IP they’ll top out around .500 – Taylor_Bauer11

Relievers are volatile, true for sure, I guess I’d ask doesn’t the depth maybe cut into that at least a little for you? It does for me anyhow. That said between injuries, players hitting a rough patch and attrition depth tends to find a way to evaporate doesn’t it? The second part, man, I’m not sure why you’d assume that about the pitchers all staying relatively low on innings per, but for sure if at least a few don’t find a way to provide more it’ll eventually kill the pen.

It’s Real

*Pitching depth (Priester, Skenes, Mlod, Holdrman)
*Cruz, Davis, Jack yet to go on a terror
*Team is built 4 PNC Park & still have 81+ games there
*better defense than last year (taylor/alika/triolo)
*not carrying rule 5 or developing guys or Hedges
*prospects to deal 7/30 – Robert Bishop

*Mouth full alert! Yup, depth, good stuff.
*I hope you mean tear, but I’ve seen no such evidence from Jack, even though I never do.
*I’d argue they have too many right handed bats to say that, but they have the lefty arms so…
*The reputation is there, can’t say I’ve felt it much with Triolo yet this season
*Really like this one, but we probably owe the youngsters we have here now for not looking like they need it
*Yeah, good call, and they may have veterans they’re ok moving too. Can you see Gonzales or Perez being expendable by then? I’m not predicting it but…

A Mirage

The offense is not going to keep scoring nearly 8 runs/g. When they stabilize to a normal level a lot of these games will turn into coin flips. They beat up on a Marlins team missing its top 3 SP. Get back to me after the BAL games. Go Bucs. – David Kaleida

Hey, can’t argue with that, it’s a pace the ’27 Yankees would fall short on. Have to say, completely sound thought on that part too. Totally agree about the Marlins pitching staff, I’ll give them a little credit for working them to death, but waiting for Baltimore, yeah, not part of the game brother, but I get it…

It’s Real

They are for real because this has been building since BC took over as GM. He took a team on the way down, accelerated that down turn because it was what needed to be done to overhaul the whole system. We are beginning to see the rewards now. – James Littleton

Umm, yup, not much to add there. Certainly explains the overall trajectory.

It’s Real

Every batter can cause damage. For the first time, in about 8 years or so, we don’t have any black holes in our lineup – The Pirate

I’m pretty sure you’d catch some argument about a few players, but I feel what you’re saying. Feels like a rally could start just about anywhere in the lineup right now and more than a few players who you don’t have a sinking feeling about when they come up in a big situation. No black holes though, for sure that’s true.

It’s Both

Mirage: Level of competition so far
Real: everyone contributes, with reinforcements coming – Jack Mycka

Right times 2. The level of competition is for sure a popular thing to bring up, and there’s no defense from it aside from saying they can only play who’s on the schedule. For sure on point 2.

It’s Real

I think they’re going to be good and compete, but they’re definitely over their heads offensively right now. Look at those numbers and none of them are sustainable. Again, not being a Debbie downer, but the bats will come back to earth. Still think they’re in the mix tho. – Zack

Damn, that’s pretty healthy, and truly, I think that is the baseline I’m mentally working with too. There’s room for better outcomes but this is how I’d see it moving if most things go chalk.

It’s Real

Because this team starting pitching is not as bad as everyone has made it to be! Look at the end of last year with 2 real starters and finished strong. Jones looks real. Skenes not far behind. Ortiz will replace falter soon, QP back at 97mph with nasty off speed. Haven’t even talked the Bullpen which looks amazing! And the offense is better than last year. Healthy Cruz, Davis being a leader. Reynolds have protection in the lineup and Hayes being a dark horse for MVP I said they would go 86–76 and win the NL Central @JimStamm22 said he will hold me to it. – Casey Hercula

Hmm, I can get behind it being better than advertised if only because most people said the rotation was 4/5ths pieces of old wood toys Roto Rooter fished out of some remodel’s sewage tank. And I picked 84, so I’m hardly going to argue over a game or two brother.

It’s Real

Keller had a poor start, Hayes had 3 errors, base running blunders, Falter started, and Bednar blew a save. Point is, it took the team to play near perfect baseball last year to start out the way they did. I think this team isn’t even playing to its fullest potential yet. – Jolly Roger Report

There’s an angle I hadn’t thought about, but you’re right JRR, makes total sense to me. You’re 100% correct to point out, these games have been anything but clean, we could get into the baserunning issues and weird sends too. Good one.

It’s Real

Pitching depth. Also, the hitting approach now appears to be a hybrid of last year’s bat-on-the-shoulder strike zone discipline mixed with the Atlanta Braves get the ball in play death-by-100-cuts. – Jim Maruca

Yup, heard. It’s certainly getting results at the moment, I think they’ve forced 3 games in a row with 200+ pitches. I wonder though, is it a hybrid or just better, more experienced players executing it and using each other as protection to make it even more effective? This is gonna come across as me not wanting to be wrong about Andy Haines, but I swear, I just need to see more. You’re on to something though, it’s not all strikeout, walk or homer, they aren’t replicating the Brewers from a few seasons ago, at least not to the eye.

It’s a Mirage

They are a mirage due to their abnormally high BABIP – MikeN

I mean,

they are tied for first, and the top ten is entirely built from teams you’d consider contenders. It’s not outlandishly high though. Like we aren’t talking .490 or something here. Eh, even if that creeps back to middle of the pack I’m not sure I’m on this one.

It’s Real

BP guys who weren’t expected to help are producing/impressing. Makes you feel this could be a special unit at full strength/takes some sting out of the Moreta injury. Bonus: No 0s in lineup for first time in years. BRey could reach a new level surrounded by more talent. – Nick Cammuso

All sound reasons for optimism for sure, I’ve thought this about Bryan for quite some time, and it’s probably the first chance since 2019 to really see him surrounded by talent in a lineup. Really could set him up for a big one from Reynolds.

It’s Real

The Pirates are for real because the pitching is for real and the best is yet to come. 2 legitimate ROY contenders will be in the rotation and an Indy rotation so full that Braxton Ashcraft, and his 97 mph 17″ iVB FB, is starting in Altoona – Brian Householder

I’m with you right up until Ashcraft. I’m big on him but he’s got a lot to do to prove he’s not a reliever. In fact if they ever do exhaust all that bullpen depth we keep crowing about, that might be the fastest path to the majors for Braxton.

It’s Real

Not decent, not good, not great, but ELITE bullpen, I would just say pitching overall but there are question marks about the rotation. Skenes is not a guaranteed thing for THIS year. Neither is Jones, really. But there are little to no questions regarding that bullpen. – Jerome Murphy

Probably one of the only “it’s real” takes to allow themselves to be this down on either of those two, Jones and Skenes. Down isn’t the right word, but maybe cautious. I too am at least a little cautious, if only because it’s going to be a difficult dance to do with their innings all year. Yeah, good call Jerome, gotta keep that in mind.

It’s Real

The bullpen is for real. Even if some of the unlikely contributors to this point run out of luck, there are still a variety of good options and the group of proven guys is really strong. – Mitchell Nagy

Unlikely to us anyway right? There really are a lot of options, I mean I just wrote a few entries ago about Ashcraft, there are a ton of talented arms they could turn to in that system who could produce in the bullpen, even if they ultimately want them to be a starter in the long run.

It’s Real

The right guys are doing what you’d hope. Key end of season 23 was real. Cruz is back. Jones metrics support performance. Davis has taken solid step both O and D. Joe is what he is. Triolo has high floor. BP is legit. Etc. Not fringe guys doing crazy unsustainable things. – Neil Clancy

Agree with all of that, especially two points. First, it’s kind of unreal this is the first mention of Henry, man it’s under the radar how much work he put in this offseason to do what he’s doing. And the last one, that’s key, it’s not like a Phil Evans having a crazy hot month, love that thought there.

Mirage

Because pirates will shut down Skenes in August and no one has talked about it yet! Strasburg 2.0 – RoSco

Um, I talk about it quit literally all the time. I’ve been told by close friends to shut the F up about it. But they won’t shut him down in August, that’s why he’s barely getting 3 innings in per outing right now. You’re right it’s a concern, but it’s being mitigated a bit right now and isn’t as drastic as you assume. Jones will get somewhere in the 150 IP zone and Skenes 160ish. Then, as they did with Oviedo, and Keller, and Musgrove, and whoever, they’ll reevaluate and decide if they can tack on more.

This made for a fun piece. If you’re interested in reading all the responses that are still pouring in, check it out, even if you don’t have an X account it’ll let you see. I could do this all night long but have to call it somewhere.

Working on a piece, help me out.
Give me 1 well thought out reason the Pirates are for real or a mirage.
I'll take the best of the best and include them.

Go!#LetsGoBucs @Steel_Pirates #Pirates

— Gary Morgan (@garymo2007) April 2, 2024