4-15-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X
The bill always comes due.
It’s tax day in America and it always hurts paying the piper, but baseball is no different, no matter what lucky bounces you receive, chances are bounces in the other direction are hiding in the bushes waiting to pounce.
The Bucs have started out really well and it has them sitting tied for the top of the league with 11 wins, yet somehow still trailing the friggin’ Brewers in the standings because they have a better winning percentage in less games.
The Pirates have done this with more road games than anyone else so far. They’ve gone 7-2 against teams not seen as playoff bound and 4-3 against those who are.
It’s Jackie Robinson Day and the Pirates are in New York, so I’m looking forward to everything that surrounds that today, it’s always a good reminder that we didn’t get where we are without pain, perseverance, bravery, and yes, forcing some people to at least shut their mouths if not change their minds. We shouldn’t ignore that where we are is a hell of a lot better than where we were by way of trying to express a need to improve further. That does a disservice to great men like Jackie to pretend things remain at the starting line, they just don’t.
Now, lets rock!
1. So What Happens When/If Grandal is Healthy?
To me, this is still a big if. I think fans saw the report that he was supposed to start baserunning drills this week and forgot we heard this even as Spring was wrapping up too. I say this because, before this becomes something we have to figure out, we first have to officially have something to figure out.
That said, they don’t have a ton of appealing options here.
If Yasmani Grandal is deemed healthy and ready to go, Joey Bart has no options and I can’t see them wanting to move on from him, he’s been quite good in a limited role backing up Henry Davis.
Henry doesn’t have great offensive numbers, but he’s done fine behind the dish. I think we’ve seen some signs he’s starting to see it better, taking some walks and making better contact on the fastball, which has been the issue all season long, catching up with the fastball.
You could of course send Henry down, but I can’t see the long term benefit. Feels like you really need to keep the foot on the gas all year, regardless of how it looks because Henry needs to not be a question mark heading into 2025. And, bottom line, I don’t see Grandal as a more likely contributor to winning.
I could add in Jason Delay who is on the IL, but he too has options and could just go to AAA.
The biggest issue is, if you just DFA Grandal when he’s healthy, you lose that professional depth at the position. Until Delay is healthy, you’re looking at Abrahan Gutierrez or Carter Bins should something happen, and let’s face facts, Grandal isn’t going to shrug and just be a AAA catcher.
I think the best thing to do is DFA Grandal, but I will leave room for thinking they might want to go with 3 catchers for a while. Maybe use Henry as a DH, see if they can get him to focus more on the offense for a minute and then work his way back into catching more than a time or two per week.
If they went that route, they’d almost have to consider sending down an Outfielder and I have a very hard time seeing who that would be. Olivares has been really good, Taylor is clearly the starting CF, Jack just showed you yesterday why he gets to keep trying, Reynolds is going nowhere, and Connor Joe just saw the team win the first game he didn’t play in.
To me, you consider yourself lucky you fell into Bart and wash your hands of Grandal. I’m sure some of you will suggest making him a coach, but these are proud players, not many of them are going to pull a Jake Taylor from Major League 2 and turn into a coach.
Again, it’s not a messy situation until it is. That doesn’t mean we can’t prepare for it mentally.
2. Marco Gonzales to the IL
When you acquire a guy like Marco Gonzales, coming off what he was dealing with, you accept that any slight twinge, any odd feeling, even a slight numbness could and probably would cause you to shut him down quickly.
That’s what the Pirates did. Marco had a great outing against the Phillies on Saturday and after the game Marco said he felt great, best he’d felt about his stuff all season. Later that night, he felt some tightness and without hesitation the team placed him on the IL and back to Pittsburgh for an MRI.
It could be nothing, it could be season ending.
The Pirates already brought Ryder Ryan back as the corresponding move, in fact he’s already pitched.
So why a reliever instead of a starter? Well, they don’t need a starter…Yet.
The Pirates are in New York Monday through Wednesday and then they have an off day on Thursday. That Thursday would have been Gonzales’ next turn, so they can just skip the spot and go right back to Mitch Keller on Friday at home against the Red Sox.
The next time it comes up would be the following Tuesday against the Brewers at home. If they make a move, this would be where, and it is really in part dependent on what they find with Gonzales.
He won’t be eligible to return yet, but they should know if this is a longer term thing, or if just missing a turn or two is fine, and the caution paid off.
If he’s out longer term, The Pirates could really call on anyone they want, it would be entirely appropriate to even have that be a guy who needs a 40-man spot.
If it’s shorter term, we could see them try to just use the bullpen, or I’d suggest Quinn Priester who’s off to a good start this season and is already on the 40-man.
Why no Paul Skenes? Well, for many of the reasons I told you the other day. They don’t have him built up yet, but if they wanted to, they could cripple through here with a couple bullpen games and get to the beginning of May where Paul should be at least very close to where they want him to get.
Bottom line, a whole lot of things are on the table, we have to fully learn the severity of this injury and the Pirates will for the first time tap into their depth for the rotation.
3. Let’s Talk About Giving a Player a Fair Shake
It’s really easy to look at Liover Peguero and Nick Gonzales in AAA hitting .356 and .362 respectively and start wondering why Jared Triolo and his .268 AVG gets to stay in MLB.
Alika Williams is every bit a bench player. A bench player who’s hitting .294 by the way, but more to the point, a player who only has 20 Plate Appearances so far. That number right there is why Nick or Liover can’t be put in that position, they both have 63 PA in AAA already, and it’s exactly why they’re down there. Just to round this out, Jared has 62.
Almost sounds planned doesn’t it? In order to consider Alika a swap for one of the 2 AAA middle infielders, you’d have to believe it would come with a reduction in role for Triolo and in that case, you’ve gone from regular ABs for 3 of them back to 2, one of which (Alika) you already showed you aren’t looking to get them for.
The first thing to say here, you all really already know, your brain just won’t allow you to accept it. AAA and MLB aren’t the same thing. Jared is doing, I’d say, OK. Not special, not really shining anywhere. He’s not leading some small ball revolution, he’s not hitting for power as they hoped would come with his stance change. In fact so far he’s really just looked a ton like last year with a little less exit velocity, a more normalized BABIP and a few more K’s.
We’re also 15 games in.
So how long do you let those guys perform, or not see Jared perform to make a change? How do you pick winners and losers in advance, almost like they did with Alika, because again, look at those plate appearances, he’s not in this story, not really. In fact, he may have the firmest spot on the roster out of these 4 players because of it.
Jared gets bonus points for being an excellent backup 3B when Ke’Bryan Hayes needs a blow.
Early on, here’s been the main thing effected by the way Peguero and Gonzales have performed, Ji Hwan Bae’s rehab has been almost entirely in Center Field. I believe he’s just about all the way out on the 2B conversation.
I always like to look at 100 plate appearances. Especially if they come in a reasonable time frame. For instance, Alika’s 100 PA threshold could come as late as the second half of May, while all these other guys will be there before the month ends.
I can’t speak for the team, I just know stats are really hard to dismiss after you get to that first 100. There’s usually enough there to start forming opinions, maybe even establishing split tendencies. The underlying stats start to mean more too. Anomalies are usually starting to prove themselves legit things to keep your eye on or evidence we were indeed looking too soon.
There are exceptions. You can’t ignore a straight up tragedy playing itself out in front of you if you have legitimate options. So if Jared had come out hitting like .075 and he’s striking out 35% of the time, ok, maybe you pull the trigger before you see that 100. You almost give him a pat on the back, a list of things to work on and a plane ticket if you’re up around where he is now, but that’s not been the case. Instead he’s been a positive WAR player and deserves an opportunity to prove it out a bit more.
Now, Nick and Liover’s numbers will continue to matter more too and even if they are in AAA, guys hitting over .350 100 PAs in is very hard to ignore. Especially if it starts coming with power, nobody in this group has more than 1 dinger so far.
In fact, right now, I could make the argument the differences in their performances is akin to the difference in levels.
Need more evidence. Which means need more time.
4. Speaking of Bae…
Listen, take this for what it’s worth, but I had assumed Ji Hwan Bae would finish his rehab assignment and be optioned to AAA. Turns out that’s exactly what they did today, but I’ve been told the team really wants to get Bae’s skillset on the roster.
I mentioned this a bit in the last point, but the team is having him play more CF than 2B. A development I love because out of all their 2B options, I think Bae is the worst defender of the lot. He can get to everything, he can make all the throws, I just don’t believe he can turn the double plays, at least not as well as all these other guys.
Center field was a work in progress but the Pirates do need more left handed options on their roster and having one more could really help everything come together better.
My thing, I have no clue who this would be for.
I can’t see it being Olivares, he’s just been too good. Taylor, and Reynolds are obviously safe, so is Connor Joe. I highly doubt Jack Suwinski, but I guess I can’t rule it out
So, I guess from the Outfield group, I give you maybe Jack but I doubt it, especially because that would eliminate the extra lefty thought.
I guess it could be Alika Williams. Bae may be to the point where they no longer want to see him get a certain number of at bats, so they could potentially go in that direction, but you’d have to accept he’s going to play second base some and Jared Triolo would have to be your backup SS, kinda seems like a stretch to me. Maybe too many moving parts to force in a guy who hasn’t shown you he should get the lion’s share of playing time anywhere.
He remains interesting, and that’s about it. I’m not sure this roster has room for interesting right now.
That said, when you hear things like that, from the right people, you force yourself to think it through, because it doesn’t just come up for the purpose of giving idiots like me story ideas.
5. These Next Two Series
These two series against the New York Mets and Boston Red Sox are weird. Both of these teams are capable of looking and playing incredible baseball, and they’re both capable of the polar opposite.
All teams are of course, but these two in particular have some Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde in them. The Mets started out 0-5 and came on to win each of their las three series. Riding pitching that on paper has no business of performing as it has. I can’t make sense of it, and I’ve tried.
The Red Sox are a relatively young team, with some star power still there too. They have the inconsistencies of youth and not often enough do their veterans overcome them when they crop up. They too have a pitching staff that on paper looks like it should be vulnerable.
The Pirates are a tough matchup for both of these clubs. Both have bullpens ripe for the picking if it’s not right at the back end and both have starters who throw inefficient games. That’s a recipe for the Pirates cracking your bullpen in the 5th a couple times and that’s what I expect to see play out largely.
The Mets and Sox are both capable of hitting the long ball, in fact, you won’t be able to avoid it all series, but if the Pirates starters continue to not give up free passes, you’ll deal with it.
Some series are measuring sticks, some are series you’re supposed to win, but these two are more, don’t let your focus slip and you should take them.
I worry mostly about the lefties Martin Perez and Bailey Falter against the Mets right handed power. To me that’s the most obvious key matchup in this series. I also love the matchup of Oneil Cruz against Adrian Houser, so much so that I really hope he’s leading off tonight.
Steel City Pirates 