4-17-24 – By Ethan Smith – @mvp_EtHaN on X
Early season storylines can always cloud the judgment of fans as something concrete, so you have to be careful not to fool yourself into taking the bait on certain things.
But something feels different about what Jared Jones, the Pirates No. 3 prospect via MLB Pipeline, is doing through his first four starts of his career.
To address the elephant in the room first, Jones was pulled after just 59 pitches, 50 of which were strikes, in the Pirates loss to the Mets on Tuesday evening. His only hit allowed was a blooper from Pete Alonso that Bryan Reynolds just missed, and along the way, Jones struck out seven, which put him in the history books.
Jones has struck out seven or more batters in each of his first four starts, joining some elite company that includes Stephen Strasberg, and anytime you’re in a conversation with him as a pitcher, that’s a good thing.
Not only was Jones dominant last night, but he’s been dominant throughout his four starts.
Jones currently ranks in the 94th percentile or higher per Statcast in chase rate, whiff rate, strikeout rate and walk rate, an indication he’s missing bats while limiting the free pass and striking out batters at an elite rate. His fastball-slider combination, one we knew had the potential to be great, has been so far, as both pitchers are allowing an opposing batting average well below the Mendoza Line, with the fastball sitting at .171 and the slider sitting at .156, so there should be no worries about his two primary pitches.
Now, the decision to pull Jones after just 59 pitches was met by tons of scrutiny from the Pirates faithful, and I can understand it to a degree, seeing as Jones was absolutely dealing again and showcasing his elite stuff against a solid Mets offense.
Here is the thing, take a breath. Its going to be ok that Jones got pulled after that amount of pitches, because the Pirates see the value this kid brings to the table and they don’t want to make the same mistake they made last year with a young pitcher, that pitcher being Johan Oviedo, who is now on the shelf with Tommy John Surgery after pitching more innings(177.2) in 2023 than he had in his entire first three years at the MLB level(142).
It is also no secret that pitchers across the league, from Sandy Alcantara to now Spencer Strider, are dealing with arm soreness that eventually leads to Tommy John Surgery, specifically pitchers with high velocity numbers, a category Jones fits right into.
For context, Jones pitched 126.1 innings last year in the Pirates farm system. He’s currently at 23 this season through four starts, an average of about six innings per game. Seeing as pitchers go every five days, the average pitchers would get about 32.4 starts per year if they played an entire season(this does not factor in off day changes or injuries).
So, do the math there, and 32.4 starts multiplied by six innings per game would equate to about 195.1 innings, which would be 69 more innings than what Jones has ever pitched in his professional career. It’s not to say that Jones couldn’t do it, but we saw Oviedo slow down as the summer months passed by, and that isn’t a phenomenon, it’s just human anatomy.
Jones even knew going into his Tuesday start that his pitch count was limited, as he and Derek Shelton both voiced it publicly postgame to reporters.
Trust me, I know it was frustrating to see Jones leave so early after being so dominant, but this is a process that team doctors and many other individuals with more knowledge on the growing arm issues across baseball tell Derek Shelton, and he abides, because Jones has been and will likely continue to be one of the Pirates top pitchers in the rotation not only this season, but for years to come.
If Jones keeps up his impressive play, the Pirates may have a Rookie of the Year candidate on their hands, even if he doesn’t pitch an immense amount of innings, and I am here to tell you he flat out won’t because the team is treating him like the expensive Christmas gift you got from your mother, and they should treat him that way, carefully.
As I stated earlier, what Jones has done is no joke, the kid is as talented as it gets, his stuff plays, he’s confident on the mound and everything in between, but what is more important, getting the most innings out of a 22-year old pitcher possible or his availability for the entire season? I’ll let you answer that one yourself.
Steel City Pirates 
Agree 100%. It wouldn’t shock me if he is treated like Roansy was a couple of years back. Shipped back to AAA with a lightened innings load for some time then built back up slowly when he returns. I think we have plenty of depth, obviously not as talented as Jones, to limit innings, minimize injury risk and still compete. It will be interesting to see how they handle the open spot in the rotation now but there are plenty of reasons to be hopeful for the staff this season with Skenes, Burrows, German and more ramping up for call ups later in the season.
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I agree I think oviedo ‘s situation scared them more into being cautious to the extreme…. which with the overabundance of arm injuries I completely agree with the reasoning better to have him late ifin playoff race
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