4-22-24 – By Ethan Smith – @mvp_EtHaN on X
After a 9-2 start, the Pittsburgh Pirates have gone 2-9 since, a complete flip from what we were watching to begin the season.
Eyes will be directed at the offense, which has had a multitude of issues over the past 11 games, and they should be, seeing as the starting pitching staff is actually performing above expectations through the first 22 games.
The issues are apparent as well for the offense: They take way too many pitches, they are constantly searching for walks and the two-out magic has fizzled out – against some starters, it works; against others, it flat out doesn’t.
Consistency is the word many who watch the Pirates daily are looking to achieve. Through 22 games, the Pirates have been two polar opposite teams. It is difficult to build consistency over a 162 game season, but the best teams in baseball find ways to be more consistent than not – and the Pirates, if they want to be competitive, have to find a way to accomplish it, and that starts with the lineup featuring the same guys more often.
For manager Derek Shelton, the mainstays have to be there day-in and day-out – those being Ke’Bryan Hayes, Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz (even amidst his struggles), among others. The rest should be determined by performance on the field and allowing that performance on the field to thrive, if it can, for longer than a game or two.
For instance, Connor Joe has been one of the more consistent bats the Pirates have had this season, but he has only appeared in 18 of the 22 games, not all of those starts. Joe isn’t your typical everyday player, but if he continues to perform, which he has, backed by his .860 OPS, then put him in the lineup everyday until that performance isn’t up to par.
The same can be said for other players the Pirates and Shelton love to mix and match, for example, Alika Williams, who is batting .348 off the bench and helps the Pirates defensively in the middle infield, and you might not want to hear it, but he’s been more valuable than Oneil Cruz, who has struggled a ton out of the gate but is arguably the Pirates most important player.
When you consider the entire offense is batting .239 at the time of writing, something has to change. If that change works, be it leaving guys in the lineup more consistently, which is what they should be doing by the way, or another way, then great, but you cannot continue to change the lineup on a daily basis and expect guys to build any consistency when there is no consistency in the lineup itself.
Lately, Joe, Reynolds, Hayes and even Jack Suwinski have seen the ball quite well, so leave those guys in no matter what for say a week’s time and see the results. If you like the results, leave it be; if you don’t, at least the thought of trying is there, but at this moment, it doesn’t seem like the Pirates are TRYING to change anything.
It is also important to remember that we are only 22 games in and the conversation could be completely different by next week, but with the offensive system in place, and having seen the very high highs and the very, very low lows, it doesn’t appear to be a system that is sustainable across 162 games, and changing a lineup daily, and I mean every single day, isn’t going to create sustainability either.
This is a team full of talent, but even teams full of talent like the 13-11 LA Dodgers who have all the talent in the world, have their low points in seasons. The Pirates have talent all over the roster, especially the lineup, but baseball is about rolling with the hot hand and creating winning streaks, something the Pirates were doing early on but has since departed, and if the losing continues, so does their hopes of competing.
Consistency is the key here, and if the Pirates find that consistency, they need to stick with it, specifically with the lineup, and consistency with the lineup has been a talking point ever since Shelton took over as manager.
if they can find that consistency, be it with whatever players work, then I think you’ll like the results much more than what we’ve seen over the past week and change, but until they just leave things alone that are working and stop creating problems or issues that don’t need to exist, then those problems, and you know what they are with the offense, will just continue to derail what could be a competitive 2024 for the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Steel City Pirates 
you sitting Cutch?
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Absolutely agreed on riding hot hands and the problem of taking too many pitches, and for at least some players, I would add too many bad swings.
Based on this interesting post, I decided to take a deeper look at lineups:
I noticed twice in this post a request to keep Hayes and Reynolds consistently in the lineup and in the same spot. The Pirates have done exactly that, so I think it’s at the very least an odd thing to decry when they’re already doing it. For those two, you can make the argument that the consistent spot is working for them. One can also argue it’s correlation.
Likewise, one can argue variety or changing it up has helped Bart, Joe, Olivares, and McCutchen, while playing sporadically has helped Williams. Another can argue it’s just correlation.
And then on the negative end, I feel one could go either way of consistent vs. inconsistent with Cruz, Suwinski, and Tellez. But you could lump them in with the other negatives to argue they’re all struggling because Shelty won’t let them hit in the same spot. One could also argue it’s correlation.
I also sense what feels like an inconsistency: There is also an accusation the Pirates aren’t trying to change anything. Is that referring to philosophy? Otherwise I’m not sure how that jibes with having to keep at least three players exactly where they are and the lineup more UNchanging. Or was it more that it doesn’t feel like *trying,* just slapdash, random?
I think there’s some comfort some players derive from consistency. There are also people who need variety to spice things up. Some people need each of those at different times. I also think there’s a significant degree of correlation, not causation. I don’t believe Reynolds or Hayes would be doing substantially worse if shuffled around or that Cruz or Suwinski would be hitting substantially better if kept in one spot for 24 straight games. But sometimes those margins and the chemistry make a difference, to your point. I think there is some validity to it but it’s also overblown.
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