5-4-24 – By Corey Shrader – @CoreyShrader on X
At the end of April this division still is kind of up in the air. There is some separation into
tiers taking place, but they are not rock solid yet.
Tier 1
Milwaukee & Chicago
Tier 2
Cincinnati
Tier 3
St. Louis & Pittsburgh
Just one month into the season is no time to make full season proclamations and we
should all expect to see things shuffle in May-July. A month-long trend is usually not
statistically significant enough to move any needle too much, but there are indicators to
pick up on and monitor.
Without further adieu, let’s check in on the Enemies.
| National League Central Standings | |||
| Win | Loss | ||
| Milwaukee Brewers | 20 | 11 | |
| Chicago Cubs | 19 | 14 | |
| Cincinnati Reds | 16 | 16 | |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 15 | 17 | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 14 | 19 | |
Milwaukee Brewers
Lineup
Willy Adames – Adames had an awesome April. Top 4 in the NL in fWAR, 6 homers, 21 RBI, 4
steals, & a triple slash of .278/.373/.496. Many believe Adames to be a trade candidate given
his contract status, but right now he is a key cog for this lineup.
William Contreras – Contreras the Younger was on a similar path to Adames. Top 5 in the NL
in fWAR, 5 homers, 28 runs scored, 25 RBI, & a triple slash of .345/.420/.538. He just may be
the best young catcher in baseball as of April 2024.
Brice Turang – After a disappointing 2023, Turang has burst on the scene in 2024. Doing his
best Nico Hoerner impersonation, Turang has 2 homers, 14 steals, & a triple slash of
.309/.370/.433. He looks to be taking hold of a starting role in MIL and won’t let go any time
soon.
Jackson Chourio – The young phenom has struggled to adjust some to Major League pitching,
which is totally in line with even the best prospects. He is struggling with K% early but his leash will be long and his minor league development also featured this same needed adjustment.
Tyler Black – Another top prospect. Debuted in the waning days of April, not much to look at
yet, but he appears to be another fun piece for the Crew to develop.
Pitching
Freddy Peralta – Freddy came out slinging like the team ace in April. 33.2 IP, 3 wins, 45/9
K/BB, 3.21 ERA, & a 0.86 WHIP. Not much to see here, just an ace being an ace.
DL Hall – The main piece in the Corbin Burnes deal, Hall struggled mightily in April. He made
four miserable starts and is currently on the IL with a knee sprain. He will get plenty of chances since he was in their big trade, but it has been disgusting so far.
Joel Payamps/Trevor Megill – Payamps & Megill are among the replacements for the injured
Devin Williams. Both have performed well and are premium back-end bullpen pieces.
Colin Rea/Joe Ross/Bryse Wilson – All playing above replacement ball in starting roles. Not
particularly notable other than keeping the Crew in games. And that is all you can ask of them.
Tobias Myers – Made his Major League debut and while the results have been mixed, he is
intriguing on the back of a 23/2.6 K/BB% & soliciting chases at a high 37.8%. He might not be a guy, but there are encouraging signs here. One to watch.
Minor League Check In
Yujanyer Herrera – This one is a gut call for me. Typically lower level minor league pitching is
not something to overreact to, but watching Herrera (and his performance) gives me the
impression that he could be special. He is steamrolling A/A+ ball. Performance markers that jump out are: 45.2/8.2 K/BB%, 1.80 ERA, 1.32 FIP, .80 WHIP, 22.5 swinging strike rate, 52.9%
ground ball rate. I don’t want to jump the gun on it, but it has looked so, so good.
Tyler Woessner – Woessner just got called up to AAA and got walloped on 5/2, but his AA
returns were strong; 34.5/4.8 K/BB%, 45.7 ground ball rate, 2.66 ERA, & a 1.18 WHIP. Since he
could be on track to debut this season, he is worth monitoring.
Mike Boeve – Drafted 15th overall in round 2 of the 2023 draft, Boeve is a pure hitter. He has
clubbed his way to AA early in 2024 & while the power hasn’t really shown up yet the results are undeniable. On the season he is hitting; .466/.538/.614, a 1.153 OPS, .522 wOBA, & a 228
wRC+. How he handles the upper minors will tell a lot, but he looks kind of like Luis Arraez and a 2023 draft steal.
Yophery Rodriguez – Just need to mention Rodriguez here because he is the latest young
player the Brewers brass has been aggressive with by jumping him from the DSL straight to A
ball as a 18 year old. He is more than holding his own early and might be their next Jackson
Chourio.
Chicago Cubs
Lineup
Cody Bellinger – Bellinger got off to a decent enough start production wise, popping 5 homers & driving in17 during the opening month. All in all a good opening month considering the BABIP is well below career norms for Belli. He is currently on the shelf for an unclear duration with fractured ribs.
Nico Hoerner – After a nightmare first week or two Hoerner finished with a decent month. His wRC+ crept up to 99 and will likely get it going with speed & on base skills trending that way as April wound down.
Christopher Morel – The full Morel experience showed up in April. Wildly hot stretches
combined with very cold stretches. It must be noted that he is running quite low BABIP vs his
career norm, so the productive stretches could see his surface lines change quickly. The
biggest thing with Morel, as always, is the K issues. So far his 10/20.8 K/BB% and a drastic,
10%, reduction in whiff % is looking golden. I expect big summer months if this holds.
Michael Busch – Free Michael Busch! Well, he is free from the LA minor league system now
and it has been as advertised. He looks the part of a modest batting average, higher OBP
slugger (6 homers in April). His K’s have ticked up some early, but for all intents and purposes,
he is a rookie still. Early returns look like a good acquisition for Chicago.
Dansby Swanson – Swanson just keeps on being a good ball player. The bat is lagging a little
early, but his well rounded play keeps him a net positive. He is not flashy with the bat, but the
glove is slick & doesn’t hurt the Cubs in any facet of the game. A true ballplayer.
Seiya Suzuki – Suzuki got in 15 games before hitting the IL. He was off to a nice start with a
151 wRC+ & .386 wOBA and slashing .305/.368/.525. He is rehabbing currently and should
return in May.
Mike Tauchmann – Had a really great April. Led the team and was 5th in all of baseball with a
176 wRC+ (min 50 PAs). He is getting a full time shot right now & that might change with
Suzuki’s return & the Crow-Armstrong call up. But can’t take his stellar April away from him.
Pitching
Justin Steele – The Cubs ace made one start and exited after with a hamstring injury after 4.2
IP. He looked sharp in his short outing vs TEX, but not much to glean with his April. Certainly
looked legit though. He is set to return in early May.
Hayden Wesneski – A trendy breakout pick in 2023, Wesneski got back in the rotation for the
end of April with the injury to Jordan Wicks. Very small sample yet, but Wesneski’s underlying
numbers look encouraging. His emergence as a Major League quality arm could be a big
development for the Cubs.
Jordan Wicks – Wicks hit the IL with a forearm injury, which is never a good sign. Prior to this
he had been showing that he was not just a command pitcher anymore. He had flashed some improved stuff adding more K potential to his game evidenced by his K% jump from 16.3% to 25.9%. Arm injuries are never good, so time will tell on how much development we see in 2024.
Shota Imanaga – Imanga looks like the real deal so far. His April featured a 0.78 ERA, 0.75
WHIP, & a 1.2 fWAR. A Steele/Imanaga top of the rotation should prove to be formidable.
Ben Brown – Brown has filled in admirably across 4 starts and 8 total appearances. Command was his MilB bugaboo & while it is still on the high side in the Majors, his debut has gone pretty well. His role might fluctuate between SP/RP, but he appears to be a Major League quality arm for the time being.
Minor League Check In
Moises Ballesteros – Just 20 years old and working over AA to the tune of a .430 wOBA, 173
wRC+, 13.6/13.6 K/BB%. We highlighted Ballesteros several times last year and he is firmly
establishing himself as a near elite prospect early in 2024.
Owen Cassie – Known for his big boy power, Cassie carried a strong Spring into the regular
season. His power isn’t flashing yet, but he has made important gains in his BB% and holding a sub-30% K rate.
Jefferson Rojas – Rojas looks to be on track to be an early breakout prospect for 2024. Just 19
years old and producing well at A+. He will be someone I will monitor closely as the season
goes on.
Cade Horton – One of the top pitching prospects in baseball. Having a strong start in AA so far.
Cincinnati Reds
Lineup
Elly De La Cruz -Elly De La Cruz has arrived. ELDC posted a historic 8 homer/18 steal month
of April. Elite exit velocities, elite athleticism, his only real warts are below average defense &
some K concerns. But if Elly K’s 30% of the time and the other 70% of the output is crazy, who cares?
Spencer Steer – Steer is a good ball player. Not a spectacular April, but solid across the board
on offense. He has no real defensive home, but the bat will keep him on the field.
Will Benson – Lots of Ks for Benson, but the output was OK with a 100 wRC+ and .320 wOBA. The potential is there for a pretty special prime if the K% ever gets tamed.
Jake Fraley/Tyler Stephenson/Jonathan India – Stephenson has been a solid but
unspectacular contributor. Fraley has been disappointing, but still a net positive for the Reds.
India is much the same.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand – CES is struggling early. Poor offense, poor defense. Hitting
the ball hard, but not much to show for it. I suspect he will get it going as the weather turns.
Pitching
Hunter Greene – Greene might be taking a step forward. He is having a strong start with a 3.63 ERA, 2.93 FIP, 29.2/8.3 K/BB%, and a 1.1 fWAR. As always, Greene is prone to blow ups
occasionally. So, if he can manage to avoid them more often in 2024, it will be a career year.
Graham Ashcraft/Nick Martinez – Both Ashcraft and Martinez have been adept at keeping the
Reds in games. At times, each has flashed above average performance. Overall it has been a
bit uneven for the month, though.
Nick Lodolo – Lodolo looks like a guy. Across 24.1 IP he has a 1.88 ERA, 2.22 FIP, 33/6.4
K/BB%, and a 0.8 fWAR. His biggest hurdles will be staying healthy & his home park. He looks
exciting early.
Andrew Abbott – Abbott has been OK! Solid overall, not getting the K numbers he did upon
debuting in 2023, but he is avoiding hard contact much better so far. While the arsenal plays a lot less flashy without the Ks, he might just be a better pitcher in this form.
Alexis Diaz/Fernado Cruz – The big two in the bullpen both have sort of ugly surface numbers due to bouts of wildness. But the underlying stuff is still strong. Surface stats can swing wildly in such small sample sizes for RPs. Expect them to sort out over the months.
Minor League Check In
Cam Collier – The number 18 overall pick in the 2022 draft, Collier is finding his stride in his age 19 season. Collier has bashed 7 homers and driven in 25 on the strength of a .408 wOBA/144 wRC+.
Sal Stewart – Stewart is one of the more underrated prospects in baseball. He has a
tremendous plate approach with a 17/19.1 K/BB% and while the production isn’t huge it is very
solid with a .386 wOBA & 131 wRC+ in A+. At just 20 years old the projection is tantalizing for
his bat, especially with his strong plate discipline foundation to build upon.
Jay Allen II – He’s got a smaller sample size due to a late start, but Allen looks like a hoss so
far. Drafted 30th overall in 2021 Allen has struggled in the minors. His early 2024 performance has him looking like a new man though. With 5 homers, 5 steals, a .538 wOBA, and a 226 wRC+ in 58 PAs something appears to have clicked. Most importantly his 15.5/15.5 K/BB% and 8.5% swinging strike rate are enormous early improvements.
There is a long way to go to prove it can be sustained, but with his draft pedigree Allen II could be the biggest prospect breakout of the early season.
Ricardo Cabera/Alfredo Duno – Two extremely young & exciting prospects. Bookmark their
names to check on as the season wears on. Nice early returns in A ball for a 19 & 18 year old.
St. Louis Cardinals
Lineup
WIlson Contreras – Contreras the Elder is still a productive hitter. Much like Goldy, he is
getting eaten up by fastballs early. But overall his production has remained quality. His
defensive metrics are also above his career norms early boosting his overall fWAR output.
Ivan Herrera – Cardinals have a bit of a predicament on their hands. Herrera is a very good
prospect and he needs everyday PAs. But with Conteras blocking him at C and a plethora of
other poor defensive players, DH isn’t always an option either. The surface stats are not all that pretty, but the underlying one’s are looking strong: 91.6/112.4 AV/MAX EVs, .367 xwOBA, 45.7 Hard Hit Rate%. He needs to be in the lineup regularly.
Paul Goldschmidt – It is early and Goldy is a notoriously slow starter, but things are not looking good early. He has been eaten up by fastballs to start the season. The underlying metrics look OK, so I think he isn’t totally washed yet, but things might be trending that way.
Nolan Gorman – Gorman has been bad. Whiff % up, Chase % up, contact quality down, it has
been a tough start. Young players all need to adjust and Gorman is no different, but there is no way to sugar coat it.
Nolan Arenado – Arenado has a 0.7 fWAR in April, but the majority of his value is coming from his defense. He sort of looks like a lesser version of 2023. This may be the season where his overperformance of underlying numbers starts to show in the surface stats.
Alec Burleson – Burleson is another tough case. He is nearly a non-viable defender anywhere
but can hit the ball with a 92.1 average EV, .302 xBA, .360 xwOBA, & a 49.1% Hard Hit rate. He probably needs to get PAs, but where?
Jordan Walker – A rotten start to the season has Walker back in AAA (much like 2023). For this team to be their best in the long run, Walker has to figure it out.
Pitching
Sonny Gray – Sonny Gray is a good pitcher. He comes to St. Louis completely as advertised.
23.1 IP, 3-1 record, 1.16 ERA, 1.47 FIP, 0.94 WHP, 36/4.5 K/BB%, and a 1.0 fWAR.
Not much else to say. He might be the best pitcher in the NL Central.
Ryan Helsley – The best relief pitcher in the NL after April 2024. With a 2-2 record, 10 saves,
1.69 ERA, 1.02 FIP, 0.94 WHIP, and a 0.7 fWAR Helsley has been a nightmare for opponents.
JoJo Romero/Andrew Kittredge– These two have been absolute nails in the set-up roles for
St. Louis. Romero, Kittredge, and Helsley are on the shortlist for best bullpen back end in the
League.
Lance Lynn/Kyle Gibson/Steven Matz/Miles Mikolas – I will officially say that all of these guys
are worse than I thought they would be coming into 2024. Not much more analysis than this.
They are vets & will likely provide SOME value going forward, but it is not looking great early.
Minor League Check In
Tink Hence – Tink is back with a vengeance early in 2024. He is roughing up AA early and
back on track to be considered among the best pitching prospects in the game.
Quinn Mathews – A 4th round pick out of Stanford in 2023, Mathews has made a big velocity
jump early in 2024. He is pitching out of his mind in A ball. Just look at these numbers: 18 IP, 2-0 record, 0.50 ERA, 1.81 FIP, 0.89 WHIP, 53.5/12.7 K/BB%, and a 72.7% groundball rate.
He needs to be challenged at a higher level ASAP. He is on the older side for the FSL & the
league uses a slightly wider strike zone. If he maintains this in A+/AA, the sky’s the limit.
Nathan Church – Church is having a really nice opening to 2024. Sporting an 8.9/6.9 BB/K%,
.397 wOBA, & a 139 wRC+. To be honest, he has never been on my radar before, but this is a
fun AA debut. I will be following going forward.
Chase Davis – Chase Davis was a favorite draft prospect of mine in 2023. His time in the MiLB has been mostly lackluster to date. His production is OK, but without the K% coming down (currently 33.3%), his chances of becoming an everyday player will be slim.
Well, that is about as brief as I could try to be in laying out what I have observed across
the NL Central. When we reconvene for the May Edition of KYE things could be
dramatically different. Most of these changes come in our Minor League Check Ins, but
there will almost certainly be some at the Major League level too. I can’t wait to get back
into it again for you all!
Steel City Pirates 