5-5-24 – By Ethan Smith – @mvp_EtHaN
Since being drafted on July 9, 2023 number one overall, Paul Skenes’ expectations were heightened immediately, seeing as he was, and still is, considered the best pitching prospect since Stephen Strasburg was drafted number one overall in 2009 by the Washington Nationals.
Much like Strasburg, the immediate expectations usually translate to coming up to the big leagues much quicker than normal prospects would, and we have already seen a young, top arm in the system have considerable success at the MLB level for the Pirates already in Jared Jones, who has set not only Pirates franchise records for pitching prowess, but also MLB ones to start a career.
Skenes made another start on Sunday versus the Buffalo Bisons, having uncharacteristic struggles but still flashing brilliance, as he threw 4.1 innings while surrendering two earned runs, his season high, while fanning four and walking two on 66 pitches.
Although his start Sunday would be considered his worst to date, in his seven starts including Sunday, Skenes sports a 0.99 ERA over 27.1 innings with 45 strikeouts, so he’s done just about everything you could ask out of him in Indianapolis.
A big focus has also been put on his secondary pitches, but he’s done well with them in his time in the minors while still flashing with his elite fastball velocity. His slider and splinker have looked impressive at times but still aren’t on the level of his fastball just yet, but they are still consistent pitches that get the job done for Skenes.
Going back to Strasburg for a moment, he threw 122.1 IP in his minor league career while obviously looking very impressive along the way, tossing a 1.99 ERA in 27 starts with 152 strikeouts and a 0.83 WHIP, but Strasburg wouldn’t debut until June 8, 2010, but consider now that times are very different in how prospects are handled.
For example, the Texas Rangers called up Wyatt Langford, who was selected fourth overall in last year’s draft, right away to begin this season and he has had a good start to the season for the Rangers, including his first MLB home run being an inside-the-park homer, despite leaving the game early on Saturday with right hamstring tightness.
The Pirates are also no strangers to calling up top prospects quickly, seeing as Henry Davis debuted very quickly and became one of the fastest number one selections to debut in MLB history.
For Skenes, it’s been about checking boxes to begin 2024. How would he adapt to a five-day pitching schedule? Are his secondary pitches as advanced as his fastball? These are among the many questions that Skenes entered 2024 with, but to not bury the lede here at all, he’s answered all of them with flying colors.
Now I don’t have any source that is telling me the Pirates will be calling him up soon, but I have said on my podcast multiple times, as has Gary Morgan and many other writers and podcasters, that Skenes reaching six innings of work would be the alarm that he’s close, and he’s done that now, so its time to consider him coming up, but it isn’t all that easy either.
Yes, Skenes is considered generational, but at this point in time, who do the Pirates take out of the rotation? The obvious no’s are Mitch Keller, Martin Perez and Jared Jones, who have all been impressive to begin the 2024 campaign, which leaves Quinn Priester and Bailey Falter – who struggled a bit in today’s outing but still managed 5.1 innings allowing 3 runs off 6 hits with 2 walks and 3 strikeouts. Regardless, both of these two have performed at or above expectations placed on them as back-end rotation pieces.
That also leaves out the injured Marco Gonzales, who will eventually return off the IL down the line (per Cherington), so what do you do to get Skenes up? The solution isn’t simple whatsoever, and the fact that it isn’t simple is a very good thing for this club.
Personally, moving Priester out of the rotation would be quite the gut punch for the former first round selection, so that leaves only Falter to be the “casualty”, with a bullpen move being the most likely option. You then consider who you send down in that scenario and the call-up gets even more complicated, but these are moves teams have to make to get top prospects on their rosters eventually.
Everyone, including myself, would pick Skenes to be in the rotation over Falter, hell, we were all doing that before the season began. Now, Skenes is ready, he’s been ready, but the Pirates have a plan for him, likely an innings limit, much like they have with Jones, that we can theorize on but truthfully don’t know the answer to, and his time for a call-up is much closer than many of you may think, maybe even this week, and when he does come up, the Pirates will have a potentially lethal quartet of Keller, Perez, Jones and Skenes to lead the way for the starting rotation.
While Jones has set the bar quite high for Skenes and the other pitching prospects in the minor league system, Skenes will be ready for the challenges MLB will bring forth to him, and again, expect a call-up soon and be ready for what the Pirates acquired in the 2024 MLB Draft, a generational pitching prospect.
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