Five Pirates Thoughts at Five – Three Series Wins in a Row

6-10-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

The Pirates have done rather well of late. Really, I know it doesn’t feel that way when you read or listen to people discuss them but they have improved. The hitting isn’t a disaster, the bullpen is starting to at least have some pieces you can count on and the rotation, at least what’s left of it is as solid as anyone in the league can put forward.

I don’t know guys, feels to me like there are more positive things lately than negative.

Let’s Go.

1. It’s Not About Defending Shelton, it’s About Understanding Roles

In the same weekend, a weekend that saw the Pirates cap off their second straight series win against a team currently in the playoff picture, I saw Derek Shelton blamed for a whole bunch of General Manager created issues, or at the very least, General Manager problems to fix.

Derek Shelton is an idiot because…

…He Chose to Have a Bullpen Game Saturday – Umm, you realize the coach doesn’t set the roster right? His GM didn’t give him a starter.

…He Decided to NOT use His Good Bullpen Arms – Bednar had thrown in 4 of 5 games. Holderman, had thrown in 4 of 5 games. Ortiz was out because he went bulk Saturday. Mlodzinski had pitched 3 of 4 including opening on Saturday. The Medical staff and Oscar Marin, told Shelton and Team Execs the team would have to avoid all 4 of those guys in Sunday’s game. The GM knowing this, didn’t make a single move to reenforce the bullpen.

…He Pulled Jones Too Early – This kid who has been super good, didn’t have it (his words) on Sunday, and he still managed to fight through 5 innings. His 4-seam fastball in his last inning of work was sitting at 93-94. People, had Shelton not pulled him I’d be livid.

…He Shouldn’t Have Wasted David Bednar on Saturday, They Won by 4 – Well, yeah, they did win, and it wasn’t a save. Here’s the thing, it was 2-0 entering the bottom of the 8th. Bednar heated up fully to enter the game. To ALL 30 MLB teams, that counts as “using” Bednar. They had no way of knowing that Rowdy who has just started producing would do so again, let alone Michael Taylor to make it a 4 run cushion. Had he messed around and brought in Nicolas up 4 and Nicolas did what he’s done, Bednar probably ends up coming in anyhow to save it, and now Nicolas is down for Sunday too, which maybe you’d like, but you’d have seen Heller way earlier in the ballgame.

…How Did He Not Get Tossed, He Doesn’t Care – Nothing would have changed. The Umpires can see on the big screen (if they showed it in stadium which they didn’t on this particular play) that they were dead wrong and by rule if that isn’t a “reviewable” play, as this one apparently isn’t, they can’t change it unless someone in that group says they saw it different. Shelton gets himself run at times, he chose instead to listen and discuss this one. I get nothing out of a manager arguing himself into getting tossed most of the time, but I think I’d have liked to see him get animated here too. The umpires were wrong, it was clear they were wrong, and honestly, that usually means they’ll give you some room to put on a show for the crowd and your team. Probably don’t toss you unless you really cross a line. I could also see why looking at the bullpen setup, he felt he needed to ensure he stayed on the bench for this one. This dude simply isn’t a table flipper, it’s not his style, and sometimes faking a style is worse than just being who you are.

This is a small sampling, I’m stopping here because this is enough to illustrate the point, not cause I’m out of material. You’ll note there’s not a single defense of any of these things that says Derek Shelton is smart, you’re dumb for questioning him. There is plenty to get on him about, but I’m not going to blame him for doing everything he can to make a bad situation work, and win 4 of 6 in the process.

We can have really good and meaningful discussions about things Shelton does wrong, or at least things we should question. I wish we would, but until fans start understanding who decides what, this type of stuff is the primary takeaway for me.

A lot of this for me is in the Why Gary Hates Bullpen Games Handbook. Glad they got the series win, hate what it does to the team, and for more than a couple days. This will prompt more swaps, and many of the options aren’t much better.

That won’t be Shelton’s fault either.

2. Braxton Ashcraft Promoted to AAA Indianapolis

Braxton Ashcraft was added to the 40-man to protect him from the Rule-5 Draft. He was in this position because he had Tommy John in 2021, missed all of 2022, and pitched in 3 levels last year as he recovered. The stuff is so real, and so filthy, there was no way Braxton would squeak through the Rule-5, but the Pirates also had to feel if nothing else they’d potentially be able to still get some bullpen help from him. Again, the stuff is real, and you don’t get added to the 40-man if the team sees no path that has you filling some role on the MLB roster if need be during the season.

He’s absolutely blossoming in AA Altoona and the Pirates having stretched him out to 6 or 7 innings now, felt it appropriate to get him up to AAA on the doorstep. It’s clear the Bucs are in need of another starter they can call on.

He’s been so good, a big part of me wanted the team to pull Ashcraft from his start on Friday for Altoona and bring him to MLB directly from AA for a spot start Saturday. Who knows if they still win that game, who knows if he goes long enough to change the chemistry of the pen we dealt with on Sunday, but he’s been so good I saw it at an option.

This promotion tells me the team feels much the same.

I always thought we’d see Ashcraft get a cup of coffee in 2024, now I feel we’re going to see him pitch meaningfully at some point. When he does, man, this team will introduce yet another starting pitcher built like a horse who can touch 100 and has a penchant for the strikeout.

Next year, his name will be added to the mix of guys who will compete for a rotation spot in Spring. Johan Oviedo will be back in that mix, Priester will still be around, Jones, Skenes, Keller, Falter and before you get carried away and start suggesting they trade so and so because they’re so deep. Stop and look around right now, did you see the rotation getting this thin, this year? And I mean once it got rolling, you certainly didn’t think they’d even have a 5 man rotation in Spring.

3. Rowdy? Really?

He’s 7 for his last 14 with a walk.

Look, if this changes your mind about Rowdy my guess is you haven’t been relentlessly beating on him, even as he earned your scorn. I was at the game Saturday, and I heard Rowdy get the boo birds early in that game, and in his second at bat, and then I heard the entire crowd turn on a dime when he hit one in the bushes.

I mean to tell you the guy behind me was telling his buddy he was going to stare at strike 3. Then he screamed “Fat F**k!” about 5 times trying to start a chant. This same dude, started a Rowdy-Rowdy-Rowdy chant not 10 seconds later.

That’s baseball, and that’s how quick it can change for people.

If he goes 0 for 4 in his next game, we’ll be right back to the boos and the DFA chatter.

I’m not even saying that to call anyone out, he’s been a terrible player and all those hits are nice recently, but he’s here for extra base hits and homeruns. That’s his job, if he does it, great, if he doesn’t, the pressure to move on will be back on the table before you can say his name 3 times.

I’ve been for weeks now hammering how much this team needs left handed contributions, and they aren’t in a position to turn their nose up at any they get. From anyone.

Say what you want about Rowdy, but he’s been a pro and his teammates were happier for him Saturday than he was for himself. To a man, this guy is popular in that room.

Now, how did he get better? I mean, let’s just pretend we know it’s permanent.

Turns out, he talked to his Dad and his go to coach, the guy who drafted him with the Blue Jays. He’d been working on adjustments and almost confusing himself at the plate but the advice he got and his approach since seeking advice has been to just revert entirely to what he used to do. What felt good when he was just a kid trying to make the Bigs.

Hey, stuff like that is cool, and it works sometimes. Most of the time, after an initial burst you tend to get right back to seeing why some of those adjustments were tried in the first place.

Look, I still don’t feel like Rowdy is good enough, but I can’t argue the team is better if he can play the part for a while, and the timing is great, Connor Joe is at least not as hot as he was, even as he continues to produce.

If you’re mad Rowdy hit because it keeps him on the team longer, man, that’s just not how I root. He could revert next week and this little stretch will be forgotten, by everyone. Even Rowdy himself would acknowledge that. When he does it though, hey, if you’re in Black and Gold, I want you to succeed.

4. Concurrent Timelines

You can say you hate hearing about the future with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Lots of people feel that way. It’s just something you get tired of hearing about in lieu of you know, winning now.

Well, right now, the Pirates have two timelines and they’re moving parallel to each other. They have the current MLB team, and they have the future MLB team. To be fair, they always have both of these timelines, but like a Solar Eclipse, for once, the Pirates have both lining up and capable of winning.

This team can win now, and in the future. This isn’t a last gasp at a shot to get in, this is the first in what looks to be a long stretch of teams that have a shot.

This is despite their soft spots, their coaching, their cheapness. Despite all that, they have built something that will compete, now and into the end of the decade. I shouldn’t even claim there’s an “end” before I start to see it form if I’m honest. Who am I to say they won’t have a killer rotation forming right under this one?

The only times these timelines cross into each other’s reality is when they make trades, suffer season ending injuries, extend a player, or promote a prospect to the Show.

Every time you make an adjustment like that, either forced due to injury or in an effort to fortify the now timeline, you change the future timeline a bit. And the more “Now” competes, the harder it is to improve. Meaning it becomes harder for a youngster to break through. It becomes harder to be patient while they try.

You can choose to again, not care about 2025 or 2028 or whatever year you think is the typical Pirate fan great shining city on the hill, but most of the pieces that make up our current reality, could absolutely be part of this thing in those years too.

I understand the sentiment that looking forward shouldn’t be a team’s priority. But if I’m overseeing a rotation like this and have team control of every single one of them through the end of the decade, I’m sorry, I’m not easily selling a player I think won’t start helping me until 2026, that still matters quite a bit, for this group of players.

Like it or not, this team always thinks about the future. In fact, I bet they’ve already done some theoretical math about how much Jared Jones, Paul Skenes and Mitch Keller might cost in 2028 if they just let arbitration play out with the youngsters. You could easily be looking at 60 million right there, I might even be light.

This team’s payroll will go up naturally, just through the process baseball uses to give team’s absolute control of young players. Next year, they’ll crack 100 Million. They’ll sign a couple vets again, and some of their youngsters will make more money. They’ll crack 120-130 Million by 2026 and Bob Nutting pathetic record payrolls will come too.

When you want a 25 million dollar deal next year for a guy and rightly claim they could afford it, you’re damn right. But all that stuff I just mentioned is in their mind.

Again, you’re right, it shouldn’t be. It simply will be though. They can mitigate this by paying a little more now to get some extensions done with guys like they’ve already done, but at some point, even this owner will have to pay, just to play the bare minimum arbitration game.

This is stuff I think about when some suggest moving 4 or 5 top 10 prospects for Luis Robert Jr. It’s not that I think a player like this couldn’t push them over the top and really make them competitors, it’s that a move like that is a definitive turn. If they pull a move like that, in my mind this becomes a window as opposed to a pitching factory. Both or neither could ultimately work with this owner so I’m in no way telling you one is right and one is wrong.

Just because I think about this stuff doesn’t mean I’m locked in on there being only one way to go. It’s sure worth more than some silly they are or aren’t all in conversation though. I can make a pretty good case for or against making a deal like this.

Want to know my biggest concern for THIS year? It’s being in position, and then Jones and Skenes are either gassed or held back by innings counts. There aren’t moves that could fix that, and if those two aren’t what they are, a Wild Card Series suddenly doesn’t seem quite as appealing.

I guess that’s thinking of the future too.

5. What to Do About Jack and Henry

Man, the season has not been kind to Jack Suwinski and Henry Davis. For different reasons, but none of that matters now, they need these guys.

Henry Davis is in the Major Leagues right now for one big reason, they thought they saw what they needed to see in the minors. Yeah injuries play a role, yes, Grandal’s age and injury history play a role, but more than any other factor, Derek Shelton himself referenced, Henry had done everything they asked him to do.

Know what? He looks worse to me if that’s possible. The Pirates essentially told him to go down there, get his timing back on the fastball. Well, he did, in AAA. He reverted his stance to a wide open crouch. It worked, in AAA, for a little bit.

In the Bigs his problem has been and continues to be, he’s too out in front of everything. He’s pulling sliders off the plate away. He’s pulling 98 MPH fastballs foul to the pull side by 30 feet. His batting stance prevents him from catching high heat, see there’s this thing called physics and Henry has to physically pop up to have a prayer of even line drive level bat plane on a heater in the top third of the zone. I’m not even talking about up at the very very top.

Worse, this team watched that in AAA, against guys who can’t control that pitch. Watched him take them for balls or belt the ones that missed low and called it a done deal. They looked at that stance and thought to themselves, hey, on our own baseball team there are about 7 pitchers he couldn’t touch, but he’s ready.

The talent is in there, but I can’t sit here and say he’ll get the help he needs at this level and I don’t think they’ve shown they’ll recognize the issue at the MiLB level. This is going to take a real shift in a hitter’s mentality and stance if you ask me. And no, I’m nowhere near giving up on him, even if it doesn’t happen this year.

If Joey Bart or Jason Delay are deemed “ready” and Henry is still hitting like this, I would absolutely not rule out another trip down. I mean they pinch hit Grandal for him the other night in a big spot, if that doesn’t tell him to be a hero before he acts like one I’m not sure what will.

Jack just about has to stick because Ji Hwan Bae is hurt. Unless the Pirates want to try something like Matt Gorski. He’s a use it or lose it player and I could see giving him a shot, so long as you have a 40-man casualty you don’t care about. The Power is real and he can field the position well. He’ll also strike out a ton too, always has.

Jack hits homeruns, and that’s his appeal, he also struggles to be productive for huge stretches. I will say he has a much better eye than Gorski, but I can’t say he’s a better bet to get some dingers from and decent CF play.

Jack has done it at this level though, and they’ll do just about everything they can to make a go of it with him. To me, I’d send Jack back down, really get him going and give Gorski a little run. It’s not like Michael Taylor should lock him out from getting some games. If it doesn’t work out, hey, he was gonna be an MiLB free agent anyway. Just like Bligh Madris, you see if you maybe have a late bloomer and make a call.

I could see the team keep Henry and Jack in the bigs for a few more weeks here pretty easy, but these are two spots Catcher and Left handed outfielder I could see become deadline targets if they don’t start to produce soon.