They’re Far from Perfect, but Can this Pirates Team Force Their GM’s Hand?

6-20-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Lets cut through the noise today.

I don’t want to ever forget what this team told us they had as goals this year, I’m not looking to rewrite history here, I’m just saying, the premise here should be more about what is not what was supposed to be. I want to focus on what this team is right this second and everything and ask, is this enough to get near the deadline with a chance they’d feel pressured to add?

I know they’re light in places, I know they have entire positions that aren’t producing a blessed thing. I’m not here to fix it, I’m just here to ask that one question, is there enough here to get to the point where they add? To me, that’s going to take getting to, and staying at 1-2 games over .500.

First, we should note they just completed playing the Reds, the last division foe they had to face. if the NL Central is as “down” as everyone claimed, that probably means they haven’t faced some teams they should beat. I think we’ve seen that too, they matchup quite well against everyone in this division, even the front running Brewers.

Before the All Star Break, the team will face the Rays, Reds, Braves, Cardinals, Mets, Brewers and White Sox.

That’s 22 games and the Pirates are currently 36-38. If they can go 13-9 in that stretch. AKA 6 series wins and a split. They’re setup at 49-47, likely firmly planed in the Wild Card and in shouting distance in this division. It’s a tough stretch but in that stretch they’ll send Mitch Keller, Paul Skenes, Jared Jones and Bailey Falter to the mound roughly 4 times. That’s 16ish of those games where you feel pretty darn good about your chances no matter who you’re facing. And I won’t even mention how good Luis Ortiz has looked as the bulk guy or how close Martin Perez is to returning. Could be a couple more than that, maybe a couple less if they have to push guys back a pinch.

Again, that’s one facet, of course you have to hit at least a little and know what, that’s exactly what the team has largely done. In June, they’ve been frighteningly close to league average, even while you’ve watched them get nothing from Center Field or Catcher. I think the thing most of us have missed while watching this underperforming offense is how much of the league is pretty underwhelming too.

So far anyway, it’s really been a pitching league, and the Pirates have some of that in spades.

Yup, elephant in the room, the bullpen.

First, the narrative that they’re overworked is, well, wrong, they aren’t. Only 9 teams have asked for fewer innings from their bullpen, and consider this, those bulk outings for Luis Ortiz are in this number, Josh Fleming too.

They aren’t asking a lot, because largely, they’re getting great results from their starters and often handing the ball to someone in the 6th or 7th. This team is set up to handle that well, they have a good 7-8-9, even if they weren’t all here at the beginning or didn’t perform well all season long. Again, this is about what is, not what could be or has been. They need someone to emerge for the 6th or earlier if need be, but again, it should be enough most of the time.

Look, getting in position to add isn’t the same as claiming this is a wild card team. It’s just laying out a path that I think forces this team to avoid some of their worst impulses and treat this year’s club like the opportunity it is.

I make no claim as currently constructed this team is going to go be Arizona from 2023, I’m just saying, they have starting pitching, by far the hardest thing to get, they have a serviceable back end of the pen and they have enough hitters to win a tiny bit more than they lose.

The question here is do they have enough to twist this GM’s arm should he require it to get something done, and I really think they do.

It’s hard to look at this stretch for me and feel they should enter any series feeling they shouldn’t win it. The Braves are good, but they’ve largely been less than themselves. The Brewers are good, but they’ve already played them to a 3-4 count so it’s not like they got boat raced. Everyone else, well, if you’re going into series like that against opponents like that expecting anything short of a series win you should probably just call it and quit considering yourself a contender.

Man, I understand the people yelling for the GM to make a move right now, even if everything I know about the game and how it’s run tells me there’s just not going to be a meaningful deal before the All Star Game.

It’s in my mind a .500 team right now. If they hold pat at the deadline other teams who are in the same spot will add and they’ll fall back. If they add they’ll be one of the teams that likely closes the deal on a wild card spot.

They have to get there first though. So to me, this next 22 games is crucial. The team will either force their GM’s hand or wilt under the pressure. If Derek Shelton is holding anything back, well, stop. They’re going to do this while trying to balance this team’s need to give Skenes and Jones 5 days rest.

Man, buckle up, this is what it’s all about. Win, lose or draw, this is stuff our team has been completely uninvolved with for half a decade. No matter how you felt about the way they got here, no matter how much faster or farther they should have done whatever, this baseball team right now, is in position in this league as currently constructed to make a run here.

Imperfect as they are.

And don’t get sweaty about what they’d have to move or whatever, it’s not going to be Bubba or Termarr, let’s focus on them getting into position. It’s no different than getting a crappy old car inspected and getting handed an estimate that probably is twice what you’d get for it. If you think you can get another year out of it, you’ll invest, if you don’t, you probably just move on.

I think they’ll find a worthwhile investment, even if they’re just upgrades for this season. But make no mistake, the players currently on this team will have to earn it.

What do you think? Do they have enough to force Cherington to acknowledge he has to go get more?