6-30-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X
Looking to avoid being swept to close out June, the Pirates will face Braves #3 prospect per MLB Pipline, Spencer Schwellenbach.
Schwellenbach was a 2nd round pick by the Braves in 2021 and was aggressively promoted through the system. After needing Tommy John surgery following being drafted, Schwellenbach made his pro debut in 2023 as he tossed 65 innings across A/A+ ball. He made 6 starts at A+ Rome to open 2024 before 2 games at AA and a BIG jump to join the Braves rotation amid rampant injuries.
Entering play today, Schwellenbach has a 1-3 record with a 5.40 ERA and 1.28 WHIP over 26.2 innings pitched with Atlanta. The peripherals indicate that he’s gotten a bit of bad luck as his xERA (3.71) and BABIP (.325) both suggest a regression to the mean lies ahead.
If he had pitched enough innings to qualify , Schwellenbach would have the top chase rate in MLB (40.2%) and barrel rate (1.3%) among all starting pitchers.
Looking at his arsenal, Schwellenbach has a near even mix between his high-90s fastball (26%), high-80s slider (21%), low-90s cutter (21%) and low-80s curve (18%) – with lesser-used splitter and sinker as well.
Opponents have the most success against Schwellenbach’s fastball with a .346 oBA and .615 oSLG but his cutter (.318/.591) and curve (.308/.385) have also produced poor results for the rookie righty.
His slider has been a plus pitch for him as it has resulted only one extra base hit so far this season with 8 strikeouts. His mid-80s splitter is used exclusively against left-handed hitters, running down and in on them and generating a 48.7% whiff rate.
Despite the poor overall numbers, Schwellenbach has fared much better at home (3.27 ERA) than away (6.89 ERA) in an albeit small sample size but it’s a war of attrition as he becomes much less effective the more times opponents see him.
Pirates will want to be patient at the plate and jump on the mistake pitches. The growing pains of MLB have hit Schwellenbach this year and Bucs bats need to continue that trend. Stay in the zone, avoid chasing junk and get out of Atlanta with a salvaged series.
Let’s Go Bucs!
Steel City Pirates 
Well, they jumped on enough mistakes to avoid the sweep, to your point. Too bad it wasn’t when I went to see old (in more ways than one) friends Friday. That was painful, just an anemic offense more often than not, no matter how well they scout these opposing starters or how much I learn reading these starter spotlights. 😦
When the mean is worse than the season results to date, that’s regression to the mean. But when the mean is better, that’s PROgression to the mean.
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