Starter Spotlight: Searching for a Savvy Start Against Sevy

7-5-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

While the Pirates have lost 4 of their last 6 games to teams above them in the wild card standings, they hope to turn things around today.

With the Mets coming to town, who themselves have been mired in a bit of a slump as they too have lost 4 of their last 6, Pirates ace Paul Skenes will spar against arguably the Mets ace in Luis Severino.

Last time the Pirates faced the Severino, he allowed just 5 hits, 3 walks and zero earned runs while striking out 4 batters in 6 innings of work.

Additionally, 3 of those 5 hits were infield singles and another batter reached base via catchers interference, later scoring on one of those infield hits.

Severino has gone 5+ innings in all 16 of his starts this season, lasting 6+ in ten of those games and 7+ in four outings. He enters play today with a team-best 3.42 ERA in 97.1 innings pitched this year, holding a 5-2 record and 74:32 K:BB rate.

Looking at his pitch mix, he throws mid-90s 4-seamer and sinker, primarily utilizing the sinker against right-handed hitters and the 4-seam when facing lefties. He pairs those with a mid-80s sweeper and high-80s slider thrown down and in against RHH – and then adds a mid-80s changeup and low-90s cutter against lefties, with the changeup working in against those hitters and the cutter breaking down and away.

The sweeper part has fared well against righties with a .179 wOBA but his slider has been hit at a .276 clip and his sinker slugged at .358 with expected slugging percentage of .455.

Against LHH, his 4-seam has been mostly effective at neutralizing opposing batters, generating 31 of his 74 strikeouts on the year but his changeup’s .296 oBA is the highest among his offerings and his changeup’s oSLG of .407 is the highest in that respective category.

In the last start against Severino, Oneil Cruz had some surprising success as he went 2-for-3 in those matchups with all three batted balls having an exit velocity of 103.4 or higher.

Sevy has strong home/away splits with a 2.82 ERA through 54.1 innings pitching in Queens and a 4.19 ERA over 43 frames away from Citi Field.

Lefties need to watch on the elevated fastball and key-in on hanging offerings from the changeup/cutter mix.

Righties will want to sit hanging sinker. Sevy has allowed 3 home runs to just six strikeouts with the sinker so far this season while netting just a 13.3% whiff rate on the offering. If you see it, take a shot.

Start the weekend series hot and hit the Mets hard.

Let’s Go Bucs!