7-7-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X
Following a short-lived southpaw showdown yesterday between Bailey Falter and David Peterson, the Pirates will face-off against one more lefty in Sean Manaea.
Manaea, in his first year with the Mets after his first 8 seasons on the west coast, has provided solid results thus far in his Mets tenure. With a 3.67 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 8.75 K/9 rate, it’s certainly not the worst value New York has gotten from a free agent starting pitcher the past few years.
Looking at his pitch mix, it’s pretty clear where he finds his success as his low-90s sinker is tied for the highest Run Value (11) among all of MLB.
While he throws his sinker 40% of the time, the rest of his arsenal includes a high-70s sweeper, high-80s cutter, mid-80s changeup, low-90s 4-seam and mid-80s slider – but, looking at pitch tracking, he typically struggles to consistently locate his non-sinker options:
Manaea’s control issues have steadily crept in the past few seasons as he’s seen his walk rate climb from 5.4% in 2021 to 10.3% thus far this season, a career-worst mark.
As mentioned previously, his sinker is the go-to pitch, providing success for the veteran lefty despite not generating many ground balls (career-low 36%) and overall getting hit hard (93.6 MPH average exit velocity).
His sweeper has really become a weapon for him, leading to an oBA of just .163 and oSLG of .306 – with expected values even lower. It’s also the highest swing-and-miss pitch among his offerings at 45.2% while finishing off hitters at a 22.8% clip.
Manaea will be facing a heavy dose of right-handed hitters, which is expected anytime a southpaw is on the bump; however, he’s actually provided reverse splits this season in these matchups as lefties have posted 64 more points of batting average and total nearly 200 more points in OPS (.809 vs .616).
Surprisingly, the key for Pirates batters today is attacking that sinker which has been so highly touted. The exit velocity, the expected stats and the average launch angle all indicate that he’s been more lucky than good with the pitch.
Given that it’s typically the only offering Manaea is able to consistently locate, hitters will want to lay off anything off-speed/breaking and just target that one pitch to drive.
His HR/9 is at a career-low 0.76 and his HR/FB rate of 7.1% is well-below his career average (12.5%) despite increased average exit velocity (89.8MPH) and fly ball rates (43.4%).
Find something to drive, get the ball in the air and get on Manaea early and often.
Let’s Go Bucs!
Steel City Pirates 
So much of this screams the all-too-familiar “starter most teams should club, and therefore the Pirates will make look unhittable.” Kind of with Peterson in some respects too. Sure enough, here we are. A Bucco win today and I’m 4-for-4 predicting wins and losses this series.
The splits have always interested me from a standpoint of asking oneself in making a batting order: Which is the greater factor, the pitcher’s splits or each individual hitter’s? I feel like managers would be better suited to look at what types of pitches from which handedness each batter’s proficient at (when sufficient sample is available). Maybe it’s a same-handed batter but reverse splits like Manaea here who has shown proficiency at hitting RHP sinkers–let’s say Joe or Triolo, hypothetically. Shouldn’t that hitter be in the lineup then? I know that’s getting granular, but it feels to me like something at least worth considering. When Hayes was struggling to hit fastballs in prior years, I wasn’t looking to have him hit against the Helsleys and Greenes, y’know?
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