With Jared Jones and Bailey Falter, sidelined indefinitely, how will the Pirates navigate their absence?

7-8-24 – By Ethan Smith – @mvp_EtHaN on X

The Pittsburgh Pirates pitching staff has been one of the better units in all of baseball in 2024, despite being a unit many could have argued would have been a struggling one in the offseason upon losing Johan Oviedo and finding no true replacements.

The additions of Martin Perez and Marco Gonzales have helped a ton, despite injuries getting in the way, but this pitching staff has been made off of what was already here, as rookie phenoms Paul Skenes and Jared Jones dominated upon their arrivals and created a lethal pitching staff that keeps the Pirates in just about any game.

As mentioned, pitching has been hit with injuries all season for the Pirates, from Perez, to Quinn Priester, who is still on a rehab assignment, to Gonzales who entered 2024 with serious injury concerns dating back to last season.

Now, Jones and Bailey Falter have been added to that list, mind you both were added to the 15-day IL within days of each other, and suddenly, just before the All-Star break, the rotation has some serious questions to answer over the next couple weeks to maybe even a month to fill much needed innings.

The question as to how the Pirates will navigate the absences of Falter and Jones is already half answered, and we saw that in action Sunday afternoon with Luis Ortiz, who has continued to look more and more like the 2022 version of himself, regaining the velocity we once praised from him as well as adding a cutter to his pitch mix, which has worked wonders as a third fastball in his arsenal.

Ortiz has been one of the better stories of the 2024 season for Pittsburgh, seeing as he was being onboarded as a relief arm, but due to the previously mentioned injuries, he’s gotten another chance to start and done a phenomenal job, posting a 2.95 ERA with 52 strikeouts in 61 IP. More importantly, his walk rate is down immensely from 2023, dropping from 12-percent to 7.1-percent, while his strikeout rate has increased from 14.8-percent to 20.6-percent, so Ortiz seems to be finding his groove again.

Something of note on Ortiz though, he has never went more than 86.2 IP in his MLB career(went 124.1 IP in 2022 in AA and AAA), so keeping an eye on his innings count is something we could see as the season progresses, a trend we’ll also likely see with Paul Skenes and Jared Jones, which is where the other part of this puzzle comes into play, both over the next month and throughout the rest of the season.

So, who are the options at play here? Let’s take a look at each and why they could help fill the void that is missing with Falter and Jones on the shelf.

Quinn Priester

Quinn Priester, much like Ortiz, should be a pretty obvious choice here.

The 23-year old right-hander was actually having a solid season for Pittsburgh before being placed on the injured list on June 6, posting a 4.83 ERA with 20 strikeouts and 10 walks in 31.2 IP, numbers that don’t fly off the page, but are fine for what can be offered from Priester at this point in his young career.

Priester began his rehab assignment on June 26, so it’s unclear just how close he is to returning to full-time action and throwing, but once he does, he becomes the clear cut option to get the Pirates back to a healthy five in the starting rotation.

Marco Gonzales

Unlike Priester, Marco Gonzales and his health are more of a concern, considering the forearm injury is something that has more to it than just that, with Gonzales dealing with nerve damage dating back to last season.

Although health is a concern, Gonzales seems to be throwing about the same amount of pitches at this point as Priester, tossing 62 pitches in his second rehab start with AAA Indianapolis, so it could be a matter of having Gonzales as more of a short-term solution while Priester fine tunes around the edges in AAA.

Gonzales would also be a direct fix for Falter missing time, giving the Pirates a left-handed starting option outside of Perez, so that could be something to monitor as well as the next couple of weeks unfold.

Braxton Ashcraft

Braxton Ashcraft has had a fine season in AA and AAA for the Pirates, and his name being here adds a bit of shock value, so let me explain.

Ashcraft wouldn’t be the best option right now, unless you absolutely despise the idea of a bullpen game, but as mentioned, it appears Priester and Gonzales are nearing returns, so I think that idea is off the table.

A six-man rotation is also off the table, but its July, and with plenty of season left and more innings count watching surely to follow all of this injury news, Ashcraft could come in handy as a young, up-and-coming option for the Pirates rotation.

A 0.49 ERA in three starts with AAA Indianapolis is sure to bring some attention to Ashcraft’s way, and it should, seeing as he only started in AA Altoona 10 times before receiving a promotion. The big question, how much workload can Ashcraft handle having been a reliever transitioning into a starting role?

Ashcraft has never pitched more than he has this season(72.0 IP), with his previous highest inning total coming in 2019, when he threw 53.0 innings. So, you’d have to monitor his innings as well, leaving the potential for a long-relief bullpen role later down the line, but keep an eye on Ashcraft as the season progresses as someone to help fill some much needed innings.

Mike Burrows

Mike Burrows was likely on track to make his MLB debut last season, but Tommy John Surgery required after a handful of innings last year sidelined him for nearly the entirety of 2023.

Now, Burrows is back, pitching with Low-A Bradenton on rehab as he builds towards full-time action again, and if he continues to progress and look good in doing so, than he could be a viable option later this year.

The importance of Burrows pitching consistently is higher than him debuting in 2024, but its something that could very well happen, its just a matter of his progression and how consistent he looks as he ascends through the minor league system back to AAA and beyond.

Bubba Chandler

One out of the park option has to be here, because with cracks now visible with the Falter, Jones, Perez, Priester and Gonzales injuries, anything can happen to these guys at any given moment, and doors can open that we otherwise couldn’t be opened.

A door that could open, even though its highly unlikely, is the debut of the new number one prospect in the Pirates system, Bubba Chandler, who has a 3.65 ERA in AA-Altoona and looks as good as he ever has, proving why he is the Pirates new top prospect with each outing for the Curve.

Chandler already features a four-pitch arsenal with top velocity, and with the athleticism that he possesses, anything is possible for Chandler and his growth.

The likeliest option for Chandler would be a September call-up, and even that’s reaching a bit, but we’ve seen crazier things in terms of promotions(look at Luis Ortiz in 2022), so although it may seem impossible, Chandler’s play may continue to say otherwise depending on the state of the rotation in a couple of months.

The injuries to Falter and Jones have short-term and long-term implications, but the Pirates have something every team seeks to have when entering a 162 game season, depth, and right now, it will be tested, but it seems that the Pirates have the horses to navigate through the injuries to the pitching staff while remaining a steady force on the mound for the next month or so.