Pittsburgh Pirates 2024 Trade Deadline Primer

7-9-24 – By Ethan Smith – @mvp_EtHaN on X

Trade deadline season is always one of the most intriguing parts of the MLB calendar, with stars becoming available and moving to new homes, under-the-radar acquisitions shifting the tide for teams on the fringe and teams in a rebuild adding valuable pieces that end up being important components to a new core shaping the landscape for a two-to-three week period before July 31.

This trade deadline is expected to be one of the more interesting trade deadlines in recent memory, as, at the time of writing, only five teams in the entire league are double-digit games out of a wild card spot and no division leader has a double-digit games lead, so the buyers market is expected to be at a surplus while the sellers market appears to be very limited.

The Pirates are one of the many teams in the National League that are within six-games of the final wild card spot, currently occupied by the San Diego Padres, so with just a week left until the All-Star break, its hard to imagine much changing in terms of the Pirates positioning at 4.5 games back of the final wild card spot before next Monday.

The last half decade has seen the Pirates sell at the deadline, trading pieces such as Tyler Anderson, Jose Quintana, Austin Hedges, Rich Hill and even Ji-Man Choi to contending teams, but with the Pirates seemingly in the race and what many media pundits would say, “A bat or two away.”, who are some players the Pirates could target if they decide to be buyers over the next couple of weeks? Let’s take a look.

INF Ryan McMahon – Colorado Rockies

Ryan McMahon is having a solid season for the Colorado Rockies, receiving the nod as the lone representative of the Rockies in the 2024 All-Star Game.

The Rockies, unlike McMahon, are not having much success, sitting at 32-58 at the time of writing and tied for the last place in the NL with the Miami Marlins(more on them later).

McMahon’s 2024 campaign has been impressive, posting an .801 OPS with 14 HR and 45 RBIs in 335 at-bats, with the OPS number being a career high for the left-handed power hitter.

McMahon would check off multiple boxes for the Pirates. For starters, he would immediately come in with the most homers from a true left-handed batter(excluding Bryan Reynolds because he is a switch hitter), while also adding defensive versatility, having played first, second and third base over the course of eight seasons with the Rockies.

The left-handed slugger also has plenty of control, likely spiking his value a bit, as he recently signed a 6-year, $70-million contract with the Rockies that keeps him under team control until 2028, costing $12-million in 2024 and 2025 and $16-million in 2026 and 2027, an affordable contract, even for the Pirates.

An OPS+ of 117 just adds to the value that McMahon would bring to the Pirates, and although the price may be steep and McMahon would likely garner interest from many teams in the race, the Pirates have the prospects to make any deal happen, and McMahon would be one of, if not their best target over the next couple of weeks.

MOCK TRADE

Pirates acquire: INF Ryan McMahon

Rockies acquire: RHP Thomas Harrington (#4 prospect), SS/3B Jack Brannigan (#8 prospect), RHP Patrick Reilly (#19 prospect), OF Tres Gonzalez (#25 prospect)

OF Brent Rooker – Oakland A’s

The Pittsburgh Pirates have had an outfield problem, to put it nicely.

Bryan Reynolds had been amazing in left field and was acknowledged for it, receiving his second All-Star nod, but outside of that, it’s been messy for the Pirates.

Jack Suwinski has played better recently, but still hasn’t amounted to the potential outburst some expected from him after a sluggish 2023. Michael A. Taylor is a defensive specialist and offers next to nothing offensively, while Edward Olivares and Joshua Palacios are below-average defenders and don’t offer enough offensive upside for it to not matter.

Enter Brent Rooker of the Oakland, and soon to be Sacramento and then, eventually, Las Vegas Athletics, who, much like McMahon, is outplaying his team as the A’s sit at 34-58 and second to last in the American League.

Rooker is exceeding his career averages in 2024, slashing .278/.353/.537/.890 with 18 HR in 281 at-bats, and that’s just on the surface. Rooker ranks in the 90th percentile or higher in all of baseball in xwOBA, xSLG, barrel rate, hard hit rate and LA sweet spot rate, while also ranking highly in average exit velocity(89th percentile) and bat speed(80th percentile).

The whiff rate (34.9%) and strikeout rate (32.8%) are worrisome, but when Rooker makes contact, he hits for above-average power and although a right-handed bat, his expected HR total in PNC Park so far is 19(27 in 2023), which would rank as the highest home run total on the Pirates right now.

Rooker is under team control until 2028, so the 29-year old outfielder would be able to stick around in a new home for quite a bit in the middle of his prime years. Like the strikeouts, his -2 OAA is worrisome, but if the bat stays consistent, it wouldn’t matter much and would also give the Pirates a great Robin to Bryan Reynolds as Batman on the North Shore.

MOCK TRADE

Pirates acquire: OF Brent Rooker

A’s acquire: RHP Thomas Harrington (#4 prospect), OF Lonnie White Jr.(#10 prospect), RHP Zander Mueth(#11 prospect)

OF Randy Arozarena – Tampa Bay Rays

The Tampa Bay Rays are in an interesting spot, just 5.5 games back of the final wild card spot in the AL, but in a loaded AL East that features the Baltimore Orioles, New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox, who are all in playoff position in at the moment, the Rays may have no choice but to sell, with arguably their biggest piece being outfielder Randy Arozarena.

Arozarena is having a very down year for the Rays, posting a .669 OPS with 11 HR in 304 at-bats, but he has played much better as of late, batting .286 while slugging .459 over the past 30 days, making him an intriguing “get right” acquisition at the deadline.

Leaning on a 90.3 average exit velocity is what will likely get Arozarena back on track, and his 11.3 walk rate is among the best in baseball, so the signs are there for Arozarena to have a strong second half.

Arozarena is controllable until 2027, making $8.1M in 2024 to avoid arbitration, with ARB-2 and ARB-3 awaiting in 2025 and 2026, making him an affordable option for any interested team.

The price may not be too high on a guy like Arozarena either, seeing as he’s entering his age 30 season in 2025 and you’re banking on him bouncing back up to his usual form. The Pirates could slot Arozarena in at right field and let him regain his form, offering power upside as well, and don’t let a previous deal with the Rays scare you out of the potential of this one.

MOCK TRADE

Pirates acquire: OF Randy Arozarena

Rays acquire: SS/3B Jack Brannigan (#8 prospect), RHP Mike Burrows (#9 prospect), OF Emmanuel Terrero (#20 prospect)

OF Jesse Winker – Washington Nationals

The Washington Nationals have been a rather surprising team in the NL this year, sitting at 42-48 and 5.0 games out of the wild card right now.

Amidst a rebuild from the Juan Soto trade, they’ve gotten contributions from many young stars such as CJ Abrams, and with the Nationals recently calling up a top prospect in outfielder in James Wood, that could open the door to finding a market for outfielder Jesse Winker.

Winker is having a solid season with Washington, posting an .820 OPS with 10 HR in 277 at-bats in the nation’s capital, including batting .326 in his past 30 games.

Much like Arozarena, Winker is among the league’s best in walk rate (13.8%) and chase rate(18.3%), and his plus-18 batting run value is among the league’s best as well.

His -8 OAA is very worrisome, but he ranks in the 97th percentile in arm value and the 81st percentile in arm strength, so in a smaller right field in PNC Park, you could see those numbers improve on the defensive side of things for Winker if he ended up in Pittsburgh.

The biggest wonders here are one, would Winker, who is a free agent after this season, become available and two, where will the Nationals thought process as a buyer or seller be coming deadline time?

If he is available, he doesn’t have a controllable contract like the three previous candidates, but there would be a chance to resign him on an affordable deal in the offseason, something I believe is worth the risk for a Pirates team that would get a strong left-handed bat and outfielder in Winker.

MOCK TRADE

Pirates acquire: OF Jesse Winker

National receive: LHP Hunter Barco (#12 prospect), OF/1B Jase Bowen (#18 prospect), RHP Khristian Curtis (#30 prospect)

C Elias Diaz – Colorado Rockies

Remember Pirates catcher Elias Diaz? I sure do, and he’s having quite the season for the Rockies, and has had success dating back to being an All-Star hero in the mid-summer classic last year and is likely the most impactful catcher that will available this trade deadline.

The Pirates catching group has been a mess this year, beginning with the absence of Endy Rodriguez, who albeit had a ton to prove, would have been a nice, youthful option to have available. Henry Davis hasn’t seen his potential present just yet, including having tons of injuries issues this year, and Joey Bart, Yasmani Grandal and Jason Delay haven’t moved the needle enough to make the group even close to below-average.

Enter Diaz, who has posted a .782 OPS in 227 at-bats this year with Colorado, the second highest OPS mark of his career. On top of bringing some value with the bat, he brings value defensively as well, ranking highly in framing(89th percentile), caught stealing above average(90th percentile) and pop time(86th percentile) despite a -1 blocks above average.

At worst, Diaz would bring consistency to the catcher position, something the Pirates desperately need, and with him becoming a free agent in 2025, he’s a rental catching option for any team looking for a spark behind the plate for the second half of the season.

MOCK TRADE

Pirates acquire: C Elias Diaz

Rockies acquire: 2B/SS Keiner Delgado (#21 prospect), UTIL Jesus Castillo (#22 prospect)

RHP Trevor Richards – Toronto Blue Jays

There’s no doubt that the Toronto Blue Jays are going to be one of the more intriguing teams during the 2024 trade deadline, with the likelihood of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette being traded growing as the Jays continue to slide out of contention(8.5 games back of wild card, last in AL East).

Eyes can go to those players, but for the Pirates, taking a shot at veteran right-hander Trevor Richards wouldn’t be the worst idea to solidify a bullpen that has had its issues, especially in middle-relief.

Richards has been good for the Jays, posting a 3.06 ERA with 47 strikeouts in 47.0 IP, including a WHIP below one at 0.87. His career 4.37 ERA also offers continuity that upon his arrival, he’ll be able to continue to be a steady presence in the middle of a bullpen.

His stats on the surface are already impressive, and adding in his 2.86 xERA and .192 xBA make him an even better bullpen option. Richards is a UFA following the 2024 season, and with Ryan Borucki and David Bednar returning from injury soon, it seems as such at least, Richards could be the perfect, under-the-radar addition to allow the bullpen to thrive in the second half when healthy and always not come at a premium price.

MOCK TRADE

Pirates acquire: RHP Trevor Richards

Blue Jays acquire: OF Estaur Suero (#24 prospect)

Other realistic options

• 1B Josh Bell – Marlins – A reunion between the Pirates are Josh Bell could be possible, seeing as Josh Bell has been traded the past two deadlines, but with Connor Joe and Rowdy Tellez performing well as a duo at first base as of late, this move wouldn’t be as much a necessity as it was a month of so ago.
• OF Joc Pederson – Diamondbacks – Joc Pederson is someone I have wanted in a Pirates uniform for a very long time, seeing as his swift, clean left-handed swing would work wonders in PNC Park. He has an .889 OPS right now and the D-Backs are just on the outside looking into the wild card picture, and after last season’s playoff heroics, I am not sure what their stance at the deadline will be, potentially making Pederson unavailable.
• OF Tommy Pham – White Sox – The White Sox will sell, it’s just a matter of how much they’ll sell, but Tommy Pham will more than likely be on the move and likely come at a cheap price. As a left-handed option, Pham intrigues me, especially considering his .705 OPS, I just don’t know if Pittsburgh would be an ideal landing spot for him.
• OF Miguel Andujar – A’s – Like Josh Bell, Miguel Andujar would have a reunion of sorts upon his arrival if he was traded to Pittsburgh, playing with the Pirates as recently as last year. His .733 OPS in 152 at-bats has helped Andujar pop up as a trade piece from Oakland, joining Brent Rooker and JJ Bleday as trade options, but consistency is the big question mark for Andujar, so it’s a matter of more risk than reward.
• LHP Andrew Chafin – Tigers – Andrew Chafin is a veteran reliever who has made an amazing career for himself, and with Ryan Borucki still sidelined with injury, the Pirates could use another left-handed reliever. Chafin has a 3.86 ERA in 28.0 IP and with a club option going into 2025, he could find a way into a team’s bullpen as a middle inning mainstay at a cheap price, something the Pirates may quietly have their eyes on.

Longshot options

• 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Blue Jays – I have heard this proposed by fans for the last two months, and trust me, I get it, Guerrero Jr. is a phenomenal player, and the statistics, including a 135 OPS+, speak for themselves, I just don’t see it as a realistic option for the Pirates to acquire him when the price would be steep and he’d likely walk for a bigger pay day come 2026, when he hits unrestricted free agency.
• OF Jazz Chisholm Jr. – Marlins – The Marlins are bad, and they’ll sell, and there’s not doubt they’ll receive plenty of interest on Jazz Chisholm Jr., who has a .733 OPS with 10 HR in 329 at-bats this season and has staked himself as a young star in baseball since his arrival in Miami. Between the amount of suitors, his controllability through 2027 and many other factors, I just don’t see the Pirates overpaying to bring Chisholm Jr. to Pittsburgh without a guarantee of a playoff run.
• OF Luis Robert Jr. – White Sox – Luis Robert Jr. is one of my favorite players in baseball and he’s also stuck on a very bad White Sox team right now. Like Chisholm Jr., he’ll have plenty of suitors vying to pry him away from Chicago, but the White Sox may elect to hold onto Robert Jr., considering his 6-year, $50-million extension doesn’t allow him to hit free agency until 2028. If the price is right, sure, Robert Jr. could be on the move, but between the asking price and the injury history, I just don’t know if Robert Jr. is someone who ends up in Pittsburgh within the month.

Players the Pirates could trade, even if they are buyers

• SP Martin Perez – Martin Perez signed with Pittsburgh this past offseason, and although he dealt with an injury over the past month and change, he’s been serviceable, posting a 4.72 ERA in 68.2 IP. Remove the blowup start versus Milwaukee before his injury and that number drastically drops, and with Quinn Priester returning from injury soon and Braxton Ashcraft improving by the day, the Pirates could look to trade Perez and get something for him, much like they have in the past with Tyler Anderson, Jose Quintana and Rich Hill, if health and availability permits.
• SP Marco Gonzales – Much like Perez, Marco Gonzales was an offseason acquisition by the Pirates to solidify the rotation, not knowing what we know about Jared Jones and Paul Skenes. Gonzales has been on the shelf with a forearm injury, but if he’s healthy, he could garner some trade interest from teams as a back-end rotation piece.
• LHP Aroldis Chapman – Aroldis Chapman has been a mainstay in the baseball scene for some time now and will likely finish as a Hall of Fame reliever when all is said and done. Signing on a one-year, $10.5-million deal in the offseason with Pittsburgh, the immediate reaction among many was that he would be a flip candidate, and that could be the case if a team offers the Pirates something they can’t refuse in exchange for the Cuban Missle to supplement their bullpen late in ballgames.
• OF Michael A. Taylor – Michael A. Taylor had a strong start to the season, but as expected, he hasn’t had much offensive success. His glove is always going to be his calling card, and teams value defensive outfielders more than we think, so the Pirates may get interest from a team that could use Taylor as a defensive specialist and fourth or fifth outfielder on a contending roster.

So, what will the Pirates do?

This is one of the more intriguing trade deadlines we will see from the Pittsburgh Pirates in some time.

The last time we saw the Pirates buy during a trade deadline was the 2018 trade deadline when they acquired Chris Archer from the Rays, a trade that is looked back on constantly among Pirates fans as a bad one.

Ironically enough, 2018 was the last time the Pirates have a winning record, going 82-79 that season, and at the All-Star break that season, the Pirates were 56-52. At the time of writing, the Pirates are 42-47 on July 8. In 2018, on July 8, the Pirates were 41-48 before going on a solid winning streak, so that team was in a very similar spot compared to what we’re seeing right now in 2024.

Expect the Pirates to buy in some form, especially with the needs of the team extremely clear and concise:

• left-handed power
• Outfielder
• Catcher
• middle relief

To the extent they’ll buy remains uncertain, hence why I included realistic names to watch and some long shots earlier. With a pitching staff that ranks among the best in baseball, the Pirates have the tools to find pieces and go for this thing, its just a matter of how general manager Ben Cherington wants to attack the next couple of weeks, how the team plays the next couple of weeks and how the dominos across the league fall.

Strap in and enjoy whatever comes the Pirates way, because this deadline will feel and be much different than what we’ve seen over the past half decade, and hopefully this piece gave you a good idea on where the Pirates, and the league, stand as the trade deadline approaches.