Five Pirates Thoughts at Five – All Star Break

7-15-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

Say what you want about this Pirates team. You have your own expectations of course and for some happiness is never going to come without hardware to display at 115 Federal, I get it, really do.

Some are more ok with the process, even if they largely have the same questions about ever truly getting over the top.

Point is, here they are at 48-48 while the baseball world takes a week to regroup and showcase some of their biggest stars.

Lets do this!

1. A Highschool Player? 3 of Them?

The Pirates selected three high school prep players with their first three selections in the entry draft and Pirates fans took it well like always.

If I may, allow me to try to boil down the complaints along with my retorts, it’ll just be easier for me.

• The Pirates needed to get a bat who will be ready quickly! Well, frankly, there wasn’t a bat like that available at 9. In fact, I don’t think you’ll find a single bat in this draft that reaches the league in year two like Wyatt Langford.
• They went high school because it’s cheaper! I mean, the slot system will ensure he’s cheaper than like 7 or 8 of those selected in front of him minimally. Also, I’m not sure this is true, at least not often enough to claim it as a certainty. College bats have nowhere else to turn, high school selections could in theory just go to college. I’m not sure the bargaining power is in the team’s favor here really.
• Another Short Stop! Yup. And I’ll probably just copy and paste this evergreen reply. All the best athletes gravitate to Pitcher, Short Stop, and Center Field. You get stragglers, like this year’s number 1 overall selection the first second baseman every taken 1:1, but for the most part, this is just where they play now, not where they’ll play forever. And if the player makes it as a Short Stop, hey, bully.
• Developed bats were needed because this team can’t develop! OK, but here’s the thing, if the team thinks this way, shouldn’t you be asking why they aren’t firing like everyone with anything to do with developing hitters? I mean, I’m sure you do, but my point is, unless they feel the same way and are ignoring it, chances are they think they can develop talent. I don’t say this by way of blessing what they’re doing, just saying, you can’t have a team think like this, if anything, they probably recognize they’ve done much better with pitching and lean into the strength, but no team is just sitting there on their hands saying woe is me, we stink at developing this, without making changes, even the Pirates.
• This guy won’t be here until like 2029, the window will be closing! Really? Bubba Chandler was drafted in 2021, he’ll very likely be promoted to AAA this season and from there, well, he’s in the exact spot Jared Jones was entering this offseason and he was drafted out of high school in 2020 where he didn’t even get to go play the game. They’re both pitchers, of course, but when the talent warrants it, they’ll move. Heck, Termarr Johnson who struggled early will get promoted to AA soon and next season he’ll make AAA and be poised to get his crack. He was just selected in 2022. Don’t get me wrong, you’re probably right, that’s a very realistic year, but for like the billionth time, even if it fails, Ben Cherington does not plan to have to fully rebuild again. Everything I said about expecting the team to react to something YOU see as fact and THEY don’t applies.
• There were better hitters on the board! Again, I think this is “right now”. There is risk with taking a guy like Konnor Griffin. He has arguably the highest ceiling of any player in the draft, and his floor is lower than most too. He’s a bet. Most picks are, educated bets. Konnor was drafted for his tools and it’s up to him and the Pirates to ensure he winds up closer to the ceiling than the floor. You may think this is foolish, but it’s very much so been Cherington’s history. Huntington for instance, drafted for floor. He took guys for the most part who profiled as great bets to be major leaguers, but rarely profiled as becoming say top 10 at a position league wide. And I don’t count 1:1 selections for anyone, since the slotting system was in place, you’re getting a perceived top choice every year. I believe there are hitters on the board yet who will beat Griffin to the league. I believe there are hitters on the board who are better bets to be sure fire MLB players, and I believer there were some who will offer more in one category or another. Bottom line, you’re drafting the best version of everyone you evaluate under Cherington’s philosophy, and in this case it’s a high school kid with huge upside, last year it was a phenom that took less than a year to make MLB and become the starting pitcher in the All Star Game before Konnor’s name was uttered. Best “Potential” Available, is sometimes both now and later like Skenes, and sometimes it’s for sure later like Griffin.

2. Extend Paul Skenes?

I know it seems like a very non-Piratey thing to do, but I wouldn’t bet against it. In fact, I’ve been told the team will absolutely approach something like this with the big right hander.

Some of you recall when Gerrit Cole started out with the Pirates and performed well he was a little chafed to have the Pirates present him with the contracted league minimum they were obligated to pay as opposed to a bit of a raise for a kid outperforming his contract.

This sort of thing has always been on the honor’s system. For instance, Oneil Cruz makes the league minimum and he’s one of their better hitters, he’s also been injured and putting together his first full season as we speak, so that’s a bit different.

Skenes could very well be in the conversation for Cy Young and Rookie of the Year.

I’m not forecasting a problem here. Look, not at all saying Skenes will make a stink, not at all saying this version of the Pirates would buck at at least giving the kid a million. Point is, this is one of those things the league will notice, and so will the other kids. Skenes didn’t have to make his bonus last as he toiled through the minors either, so he’s probably not dying for cash, not to mention his social media start girlfriend can probably pick up a tab here and there I’d imagine.

I say, kill two birds with one stone. Approach Paul with an offer to buy out his arbitration and entry level contract right now. Especially since he’ll get a full year of service time for Rookie of the Year most likely. The clock is ticking.

The Pirates have leverage right now in that they could give him a large raise in the years they were only obligated to pay him league minimum. But again, it’s leverage that has an ever shrinking shelf life.

Yup, I’m talking a Julio Rodriguez or Jackson Chourio type deal.

I’d offer him 7 years 150 million and have a little room to go higher. This would lock him up through 2031, his age 29 season. The Pirates can do this and still have a payroll under 130 next year.

This is at least competitive with what he’d get through arbitration and factors in a big payday for the couple years of free agency. It’s an AAV of 21.4 Million and the Pirates could weight it around Reynolds and Keller’s expensive years to make it work. They can even make it incentive laden, I’m sure Paul thinks he’ll be a finalist for Cy Young like 7 times. lol

It gives Paul insurance against injury, more money right now and a shot at entering free agency in his prime, or, should baseball economics come to their senses, stay right here.

This doesn’t have to happen this offseason, but if it doesn’t, take all the numbers I just spewed and add 25-30 million easy for the same end date.

Either way, it would be good form for the Pirates to give him a raise. It would also show the only surviving member of the management team from Gerrit Cole’s handling, Bob Nutting, learned something from the experience. That bad blood from being slapped in the face can spoil even the most well kept locker room.

3. What to Do with All These Pitchers

The Pirates are mighty deep at a position of need and it’s weird to say as a Pirates fan, but they have more starting pitching than they can use.

I puked in my mouth when I wrote that. It took everything in me to ignore 40 years of baseball cliche’s and type such blasphemy.

Jared Jones and Bailey Falter are both on the IL, so for now, we’ll take them out of the equation. I believe both will pitch again for the Pirates in 2024, and the team has put forward the same belief, but for this talk, to us, they are out of the picture.

That’s how insane I want to get when I talk about the depth.

Paul Skenes and Mitch Keller will be here. Keller isn’t hurt, team reported that, and Paul Skenes while needing managed, has already had the team alter their pre-season limit suggestions, plus, they did such a great job limiting him early, he’s really just getting on a roll now.

Now we get to some other parts currently being used.

Quinn Priester, sometimes starter, sometimes bullpen option, the team sees him as a starter moving forward, but they’ll use him as they need to this year.

Luis Ortiz has been largely in the same role Quinn Priester finds himself, until recently, when given opportunity, Ortiz took advantage, and now has fans asking how can you consider moving him out of the rotation.

Both of these guys are under cheap team control for years to come, both are nowhere near their ceilings, both are still far from locking down a spot for the long haul.

Veterans Marco Gonzales who just returned from the IL and Martin Perez have playoff and high leverage starts under their belts. Gonzales has a team option for next year, Perez doesn’t. Without one of them the rotation has no left hander. Perez has sputtered recently since returning from his own IL stint and he owns a wealth of bullpen experience.

Ortiz and Priester both have options, but Quinn would be the much more likely to be sent down even though he’s performing.

In the minors Braxton Ashcraft is running critically low on innings to give, but he’s been a beast this year both in AA and AAA, and he’s already on the 40-man. Have to believe if for some reason the 6 I spoke to weren’t enough, or a couple were to get injured before Jones and or Falter are healthy, then Braxton would be an option. Mike Burrows continues to work his way back too, but it’s hart to think he’s starting games for this team, he’d just have to jump too many hurdles for opportunity this year.

Next year of course they’ll welcome back Johan Oviedo in some capacity too.

I can see a world where the Pirates might be compelled to give something from this group in exchange for a bat. And I mean a competitor. A team like the Orioles, might be willing to give up someone either blocked or potentially down to a year of control for some help where they’re not all that deep. Keep in mind they only have Burnes for sure this year.

You’ll hate this idea but a guy like Ortiz might bring you back something really offensively helpful. Just think about it, swear to yourself in the bathroom, and after you’ve really thought it through, maybe we can talk about it. It’s just a thought. That’s not the guy I’d want to move, but Perez or Gonzales don’t return right now help in my mind. Priester is a bit too untested to help them now. Ortiz looks like a guy who could really break out, and while I selfishly want that here, I can’t deny Ashcraft and Chandler are coming like freight trains.

If Falter were healthy, I might suggest him.

If you want to poach a team that’s in it, you’re going to have to give something that helps them either solve a roster problem, meaning Rule 5 protection or out of option guys, expiring contract soon types coming this way for the Pirates to deal with. Or it helps them now too. Those kind of trades don’t happen a lot because nobody wants to subtract a damn thing, but this team might well need to be open to it and so might a team in dire need of starting pitching in a league full of teams not sure they want to sell.

Perez gets you a lottery ticket. Gonzales, if you pick up his buyout for 2025, might get you a lottery ticket or two.

Our own high end prospects like Ashcraft or Chandler, well you’d have to get back help now with control. That’s not going to come from a team that’s in it, that’s gotta come from a team that is out or knows they will be. And they probably have to know next year isn’t likely to be better.

Open your minds. I sure hope Cherington has. They’re absolutely blessed with pitching, if you sell any of it, it has to count.

4. The Pirates are Gaining Steam at a Good Time

It’s impressive because they haven’t been terribly healthy lately. The Bucs rolled into the All Star Break stomping on the necks of a willing to lay down arms foe in Chicago but they’ve been playing good baseball on the way there too.

The baseball world will be watching, don’t think this management team is ignorant to that fact. Baseball wants Paul Skenes, and while it’s never worked for Mike Trout, the pressure to make this a playoff team will do nothing but mount in Pittsburgh as long as he’s a Pirate.

The teams in front of the Pirates for the Wild Card are in weird positions aside from the Braves. The Braves did one thing wrong this year and it’s to wake up in the NL East where the Phillies are an absolute wagon. Any other division and they’re right there even without Acuna.

There are really two spots open here, currently occupied by St. Louis and New York. The Cards know this team isn’t staying together heading into 2025, I can’t believe for one second they thought they did enough to be a playoff team in 2024. That said, this is a proud organization and their ownership won’t just ignore an opportunity. They likely don’t sell off now but I quite frankly think they’re a fraud. Their run differential of -38 sticks out like a sore thumb amongst every team currently in the Wild Card if the season ended today. In fact, the next lowest is the Mets at +13.

Yes, before you run to Google, the Pirates are -9.

Wins matter more than run differential, but the Cardinals don’t smell sustainable to me. The Mets’ payroll is insane, so to say their inclusion in the Wild Card is a surprise is kinda stupid, of course they should at least be a .500 ball club and in this MLB, .500 has you in the race, they’re a bit better than that, but just a bit. I have no idea what the Mets will do. I can’t imagine they’re anxious to add a bunch more payroll, but I’m not sure Steve Cohen can force himself not to if he has a chance to make the playoffs and prove he and his countless GMs at this point weren’t total buffoons in building this decrepit roster.

The Diamondbacks and Padres are both there too, the next two, just a half game in front of the upstart Pirates. On paper, far superior rosters, in application, not so much, they certainly can’t pitch with Pittsburgh and some of their counted upon players really haven’t shown up. That could change in the stretch run. Either could add, the snakes are probably close to tapped though. The Padres always seem to be the team that “gives up their farm” for whoever is available, and it’s funny, every year they still have a farm to “give up all of”.

The Bucs are right there, and playing as well as any of those clubs.

Yes, we’ve seen them swoon after the All Star Break before. I’ll save you the comment, of course they could fall flat on their face, even if they add players. That’s why we play the games.

One thing’s for sure, it’s July 15th, Steelers Training Camp opens like next week and the Pirates are still relevant.

Not that they ever aren’t to me, but they’re really in this thing.

5. The Day to Day

For me, this is heaven. Every day looking at the MLB scoreboard, checking the standings, monitoring the injury situation for upcoming opponents. Listening for trade rumors not about deconstructing my team but potentially building on it.

Wondering what the teams the Pirates are battling with are thinking. Will the Cubs throw in the towel or stubbornly try to bully their way back into the race? Will the Brewers really just hold guys on expiring contracts, they’ve moved guys before while in the playoff pole posiiton.

How about the Reds, are they going to try to improve or just ride it out with the kids and let it happen organically another year?

All of this stuff we Pirates fans have largely been locked out of since 2018. We are finally back to having a team that at least allows us to participate in all the fun post All Star Break baseball has to offer.

It’ll stress us out, bust out those old DK Pittsburgh Sports foam bricks when you’re watching peeps. But it’s a good stress. The kind that has you sneaking to the bathroom on a date with your wife to check the score real quick. The kind that has you ducking out of a wedding to see if the game is on at the bar.

The kind that has you rethinking that Pittsburgh tradition of the “F the hurricanes, it’s cheaper September Outer Banks Vacation”.

This is what it’s all about.

Are they good enough? I mean, for what? To sneak in and have a series of miracles take place, yeah. Good enough to bet your kid’s college fund? Um, no.

What they are is competitive, and in it deep enough that it would take a stretch of futility quite frankly they illustrated isn’t in them by going 55 games without losing 3 straight, multiple times to have them completely slip out.

By mid September, we could easily be looking back on a run that never really got started, to me, that just means we’ll know better what to expect next year when they’re even better suited for the task at hand.

Yeah, I’m going to enjoy this, regardless of outcome. The league actually matters down the stretch when your team is involved, that’s good for baseball in this city, even if it ends with a thud.